Watching for reversal signsMorning everybody,
So, the first step of our trading plan is done - market is around 61K, which is intraday strong support area. It is preferable if upside action starts from here, although downside continuation to next support and XOP target will not become a tragedy yet, but will be looking worse with lower chances on success.
Now we need to watch for small bullish patterns around this area. Once and If we get it - we could consider long entry. Our nearest upside target is around 67K
Daily Charts
First - watching for 62K, then 67KMorning folks,
So, everything goes with the plan, although the upside bounce that we've discussed is stronger than we thought. It means that bearish long-term patterns are still valid, say on monthly chart,
we do not consider short entry right now.
Vice versa, there are a few bullish patterns might be formed intraday. First is reverse H&S with 67K neckline, second is, the same on 1H chart.
Thus, if we get lucky and the pullback to ~ 62K area prior BTC hits 67K , we could consider long entry.
Otherwise, wait when BTC hits 67K neckline and wait when the right arm will be formed, as usual.
50.2-52K mid term targetMorning guys,
So it seems we've correctly reversed our position down from 62K area. Today we increase the scale a bit and take a look at daily chart. Indeed BTC has broken triangle down as we've suggested. But it is more important that it also has broken K-support level and only oversold stops the downside continuation.
This makes us to consider next downside target as 50.5-52K where next strong support stands. But before that BTC could show tactical bounce up to 60.5 area because of oversold, and maybe re-test broken triangle line.
I'll anyway mark this update as "bearish" although first we could get the upside bounce...
Profit to everybody,
All the best...
what does this divergence say about indicescompared to USI:TICK , SPX/NDX is maximally diverged as stocks consolidate most heavily. the difference between indices historically closes quickly, and daily consolidation may have begun to rally the market somewhat.
the indices compared to all stocks up/down is beginning a daily bounce due to the amount of money that has gone back into risk assets as they squeeze compared to an overall down market.
Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) Quick Video IdeaEASYMARKETS:BCHUSD Bitcoin Cash
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H&S is failingToday guys, update is very short. This is the only picture that we need for now, although we cold find more bearish signs on higher time frames as well.
Despite that BTC has tried to show couple of pullbacks up from our 62-62.5K area - reverse H&S has not been formed. Other words, market was not able to confirm bullish reversal and other bullish patterns that we have.
It means only one thing - inability to do this and that we have bearish context instead. As nearest target we suggest re-testing of recent 59K lows. Potentially bearish consequences could be more heavy.
Corn broke the upper side of the rangeEASYMARKETS:CRNUSD
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Quant appears to b on the verge of validating an invh&s breakoutNo guarantee it ont go back below the neckline once or even twice or thrice before the real breakout as such things are common, however it definitely looks like this current breach above the enckline could be the one that ends up validating. The breakout target once it validates is $171. *not financial advice*
Lets' see how the PCE affects DXY TodayTVC:DXY EASYMARKETS:USXUSD EASYMARKETS:EURUSD EASYMARKETS:USDJPY
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63K looks interesting for long entryMorning folks,
As we've promised on Thu last week, the close of the week will be most important thing that could change everything. That has happened. AS BTC has closed 5K higher - we haven't got any bearish engulfing on monthly chart for now.
But what is more important - we have bullish grabber on weekly, suggesting that price should challenge ATH again. Not necessary the breakout should follow, but re-test it at least.
Thus, based on intraday performance, it might happen that now we're getting reverse H&S pattern, and an area around 63K where the right arm might be formed, seems interesting for long entry...
Solana could be interesting for the bulls if...EASYMARKETS:SOLUSD
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Can EURUSD go for a larger correction higher?EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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Still Long Bitcoin for ATHBitcoin is not shy about revisiting all time highs one resistance has been established. the chance btc/usd and btc1! remain volatile and continue to consolidate daily lessens the stronger we hold weekly lows.
im aiming in any value area/poc/smart money volume area for dip buys until we are over $72k.
64-65K pullback is possibleMorning folks,
Although BTC situation is changing and not to the good (we've talked about last time), market now stands at strong support area. 59-60K is strong daily support and oversold level. While here, BTC has done "222" target, suggesting that at least 30% pullback, somewhere to 64-65K area is possible.
But, in longer term, drop under 60K will push price down to 50K at least, because of bearish patterns on monthly and weekly charts.
Right now we do not consider any shorts, as market is oversold. If you consider intraday bullish trade - wait for clear reversal patterns there that we do not have yet, before taking the position. But anyway they will be formed somewhere around.
Solana Still Above An Upside LineEASYMARKETS:SOLUSD
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Context is still bearishMorning folks,
So, unfortunately for BTC - it is traded 24/7, so while other markets were closed, BTC has taken all the mess from geopolitics. With recent collapse, it is logical to ask - where all those people who were taking about "safe haven", "gold replacement" etc...
Now due geopolitical turmoil in weekend, our short-term bullish context has been destroyed, so H&S was not able to reach the target and has been erased.
As a result, for now short-term context has turned bearish and we think that it is not time yet for taking new long position. On daily chart MACD is bearish and we've got bearish reversal swing last week.
From this standpoint, current upside action might be just a retracement. To start thinking about new long entry we have to get bullish pattern, say reverse big H&S on 4H chart or any other. Daily trend has to turn bullish again.
Now we have nothing of it. Thus, the situation is not ready yet for new purchasing. On 1H chart we need to watch how upside action will develop. Picture could improve significantly if BTC will return back to the top, but now it is still a retracement with predefined upside targets.
DAX Cash Index (DECEUR) Quick Video IdeaEASYMARKETS:DECEUR
DAX
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Ripple (XRPUSD) Falls But Not All Is That BadEASYMARKETS:XRPUSD
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The market's intentions for btcusd.A triangle is invalidated, another is born and is monitored again. The graphic patterns, as I always write, depict the market's intentions and not the future, they are hypotheses, so they can be invalidated and change scenarios in an instant. Yesterday we had proof of why I am often very cautious and always repeat the same things about prudence and stop losses. Help for this hypothesis of the ascending triangle could be given by the macd, in divergence with the price which, while the latter marks ascending lows, the macd signals increasingly lower lows crossing downwards, demonstrating that we are in a correction that is for now short but which could even be of a higher degree, we cannot say for sure. One thing we can do is do nothing if we are already in and the stop loss is far away, because yesterday's movement, although very strong, comes after a very powerful and long-lasting rise, which started on January 23rd if we look at the medium term and from September if we look at the intermediate period. While you are out and want to buy, you could wait for the 58k USD as many are doing, or wait for the intermediate correction, unless this is underway, there will be other opportunities to snatch lower prices. If instead you want to go short I wish you the best, you might even guess, but know that you would be against the underlying trend.
Gold just made a big splash above this key pink trendlineXAUUSD made a big splash and just got a new ath recently as it broke above this pink horizontal trendline for the first time. We can see since then it has created a big bear wick however so not so sure it will be able to maintain this pink trendline as solidified support or not. Once it eventually does hod this pink trendline as solidified support for a weekly candle or 3, that should likely be enough to trigger the breakout from this trendline…at that point the target gets pretty bullish. A correction would not surprise me if this big bearwick on the current candle closes as such but for the medium turn I would say gold is having some very bullish developments here. We can also see the recent death cross threat has been confirmed a fakeout and quickly reversed back into the golden cross formation…a great sign for prolonging its bull cycle. *not financial advice*
Plan works perfect so far, showing 76-77.3K targetMorning everybody,
So, our H&S pattern starts perfect. The only thing that we've missed is the neckline top - we thought it should be around 71K but it has been formed around 73K, which is even better in perspective.
So, 2nd stage of the plan is done as well - right arm stands in place. We also have bullish grabbers on daily chart.
All this stuff, based on H&S suggests action at least to ~75.8-76K area, while daily expansions point on 77.3K.
Invalidation point of this scenario is 67.5K right arm's lows. If BTC drops below it, our view will turn bearish based on H&S "Failure" pattern. But for now we have no reasons yet to consider bearish setup.
Keep your eyes on the ECB today. EURUSD in the spotlight!EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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