EURUSD: Breakout of 3-Month Falling Channel; Long OpportunityAs discussed in my last EURUSD weekly forecast, the reversal has taken place as the price broke above a 3-month falling channel.
In the midst of the breakout, a new rising channel has formed and the price has started to retrace from the top since the market opened this week.
The price has certainly reached the demand zone but is most likely to give it another retest while it's nearing the bottom of the rising channel.
Look for a buying opportunity as the price retest the demand zone near the bottom of the rising channel.
Dailyforecast
USDJPY: Keep it Simple!USDJPY is on a rise since last week and continued so in the beginning of the trading week too.
Safe-haven assets seemed to have lost its demand for now as Brexit discussion is showing positive signs.
While this is most likely to be temporary, day trading clearly favours a weaker yen (and gold) and we can keep things simple.
USDJPY is climbing within a rising channel and is currently retracing toward the bottom of the channel where we can look for a buying opportunity.
USDJPY: ABCD Completed within Supply ZoneUSDJPY has undergone retracement since the first bearish wave which broke below a rising trendline.
The price has just completed an ABCD pattern as it found resistance within a supply zone (based on the breakout area).
This is a great combination of a reversal, and clear trend formed and a perfect retracement pattern to execute a trade.
EURUSD: Awaiting Next MAJOR TrendIf you are reading this forecast, bookmark it and revisit on the 3rd week of October.
If you have missed 2 great trends which were shown in my previous 2 forecasts on Gold and US30(check out related ideas below), here's the next one you don't wanna miss!
The chart is pretty much self-explained already.
EURUSD has hit a new low last Tuesday during the European session and price has retraced significantly.
Based on the repeating patterns whenever price retraced from a new low, here's what's gonna happen:
1. The price will undergo a period of consolidation.
2. Past patterns show that the consolidation will take about 2 weeks before the next major movement.
3. Watch out for the key supply zone between FR38.2 and FR50 to place a sell position.
So, just be patient and wait for the RIGHT TIMING to execute.
US30: Broke of Rising Structure, Formation of Falling StructureThe US30 has proven to be taking a bearish stance throughout the week.
The current analysis is also linked directly with my previous analysis while the price is still climbing but unlikely to break a new high.
Initially, the price broke below the bottom of a rising channel last week which already shown an indication of a stop to a bullish structure.
However, the price continued to consolidate without any strong selling pressure.
But this week, the price has begun to break new day lows and also formed lower highs thus confirming a formation of a bearish structure.
Sell the US30 now and set a stop loss just above the previous high should be sufficient.
EURUSD: Buy and Sell Trading PlanEvery new low comes with a rebound over 200 pips.
That's the repetition I see and the same thing seems to be happening again.
The only question is: Will the price continues to go up right away OR will it retest the bottom?
It's simple! Don't trade in the middle. Sell if it reaches the top and buy if it retests the bottom.
But if I were to make a guess, I think it will retest the bottom.
Gold: Awaiting Major ReboundThe gold has been consolidating (with some new highs) for the past one month since it first broke above 1500.
Previously, the gold has also consolidated for a month and a week since it first broke above 1400.
Which also means, we are 1 more week away from a major bullish wave which could potentially break 1600.
The price has dipped for the last 2 trading days which has probably led to a major stop out of buyers.
Wait for patiently for the price to dip a little lower into the demand zone and/or the bottom of the 3-month rising channel to buy.
US30: New High? Maybe Not?US30 had enjoyed 2 weeks of bullishness while sellers who tried to sell near 26500 or even lower must be feeling very panic at the moment.
However, it's about time that a big chunk of buy orders will be released around 27000.
Avoid selling if there's no sign of a break-below of the current bullish structure (break of rising trendline etc).
Avoid selling before the release of NFP as well.
Gold: Break of Rising Structure, AgainThe gold has consolidated for more than a week since it broke new high at the beginning of last week.
The price has made another attempt to break new high as it broke the top of the consolidation but came down quickly as it lost its buying strength at the previous high of 1555.
There's a repeating pattern which shown the price fell as much as 300 pips once it broke below the rising structure (break of a rising trendline/bottom of a rising channel etc).
Also, the gold price was already seen resisted at the to of a 3-month rising channel since it reached the highest price of 1555.
The recent fakeout is very likely to cause a big amount of buy orders to be trapped and that's an indication that the price may continue to fall further.
Traders may look to look for short-tern/intraday sell at the moment, stop loss set about 30-50 pips just above 1543 would be sufficient and targetting the demand zone around 1530.
USDCHF: Repeating Bearish HarmonicsAn interesting repeating bearish harmonic pattern has presented itself and the bearish trend has just begun.
According to the past development of the bearish trend after the completion of the bearish harmonic pattern, the price will fall steeply with shallow retracement and very little support.
Sell USDCHF whenever the price retraced to the previous low in the smaller timeframe (H1 and below)
As for now and should the price starts to retrace, look to sell at 0.9860, stop loss set at, or above, 0.9882.
EURCAD Monthly/Weekly OutlookFirst off, there is a monthly Ascending triangle. The orange lines represent monthly zones. The circles show the touches of the trendline zone. So the monthly has some uptrend structure. When we look down at the Daily chart, we see at the market is currently in a downward parallel channel. However, I'm looking at it bouncing off of one of the bottom two green support zones with confluence of the trendline to continue that monthly uptrend and make it to the monthly resistance that the arrow stops at on the monthly chart at least. For now, I'm looking for it to possibly push back up to the top of the resistance line on the channel then come back down to one of those bottom 2 green supports then go up, or to break the resistance of the parallel channel retest it and start the uptrend now. Either way, I'm seeing that push up for the monthly ascending coming soon. I don't see this downtrend going down past those two bottom supports. But, we know these markets do what they want. So I could be horribly wrong. We will see.
Trade at your own risk, I am not a professional and this is not professional advice. I just read some books and think I know a little something.
PatiencePays
EURUSD: Awaiting Retest of Previous LowEURUSD continued to retrace for the 3rd trading day with little sign of rebound.
As observed, the price has formed lower highs and lower lows throughout the last 3 trading days and thus the price is expected to retrace further.
The price will soon retest the final demand zone near the previous low at 1.1050.
Look for buying opportunity from 1.1065 onward with a stop loss 30 pips below the previous low.
EURUSD: Supported at 618 Level, Broke above ConsolidationEURUSD has retraced significantly since the beginning of the trading week.
The price was seen supported at the 618 level which lasted from last night and through the Asian session.
The price has also rebounded off and broken above the minor consolidation when it was first seen supported at the 618 level.
It is a good time to buy the pullback, targetting at 1.1150 (previous high) and then 1.1185.
EURUSD: Watch for Rebound at Previous LowAs boring as this week's market is, I think that every good trader should cultivate a high level of patience.
Imagine trading within the tight range throughout this week, chasing after every rebound at the range bottom.
Either you have spent a great amount of time to make very little profit or you have made losses due to impatience and impulsive trading.
It's already the last trading day of the week and the market calmly awaits Powel to deliver his speech.
If the market does give a chance and EURUSD retest its previous low, I think it's a fairly good trade to buy the low on the first retest.
As long as the Fed doesn't shift away from a near-term rate cut, EURUSD should stand a good chance for a significant rebound after all the accumulation throughout the week.
EURUSD: Awaiting Completion of Bullish BatThe EURUSD is getting ready to inch lower as it failed to break above 1.1111.
Once the price dip lower, a bullish bat will be completed.
There is a good chance for the price to rebound stronger near the previous low of 1.1026.
And based on past pattern, EURUSD is likely to rebound higher again before it's able to break new low again.
Gold: Bullish Structural Break, Awaiting Next Bearish WaveThe gold fell over 550 pips on Tuesday and the price has gone through a full day of retracement on Wednesday.
Price is now seen resisted constantly at supply zone around 1523 and has just made a 150 pips of bearish wave.
Wait for a better price in the smaller timeframe to sell.
EURUSD: Wait for Pullback to BuyThe EURUSD turned out accordingly to what was forecasted in the weekly forecast.
The price broke out of the consolidation for the first time but pulled back immediately.
Based on the current structure, the EURUSD will continue if it doesn't break and close above 1.12.
Wait for the price to fall and pull back further into the immediate supply zone at 1.112 to buy.
US30: Intraday Sell Upon ABCDUS30 has been consolidating for the past 2 weeks and the closing price of the daily candle is also getting lower.
Putting aside fundamental and just trading with pure technical analysis for the short-term, selling the US30 near the range high could be a good opportunity.
The price is now retracing higher from the bottom of the consolidation while an ABCD formation may form if it continues to retrace higher.
Look for sell opportunity if ABCD forms around 27250 and aim to take profit either at the previous low or within the key demand zone just below 27000.
Gold: Buy near Key Demand ZoneAre you one of those who were trapped by the recent breakout?
You are definitely not alone and many are still trapped and hanging on to their buy orders.
And what's very worrying for the buyers is that the gold has retraced significantly and beyond the 618 level which will definitely cause some form of panic.
This is the part where it matters the most because this is exactly what the institutional traders want to see.
Well, if you still have some bullets left to buy, wait patiently and observe the price action as it gets closer to the demand zone below 1410.
Gold: Long Continuation from 1140 OnwardThe gold has broken new high again after close to a month of consolidation.
Those who chased after the trend when the Asia market opened this morning would have found themselves trapped by a sudden pullback lasted till right now.
The dilemma here is whether the price will retrace deeper but one thing for sure is that gold will continue to climb.
The question is whether is it the right time or the best price to go for re-entry to catch the bullish trend before its too late.
From the technical perspective, the price is in the midst of the 2nd wave of retracement which looks exactly the same as the previous round of retracement before the breakout.
On the other hand, the key demand zone is seen at 1430 just below the 618 level but what're the chances to buy again at this price? Honestly, we don't know.
Oh, and those buyers who were trapped at the peak, where would they set their stop loss? Probably slightly below the previous high?
In my opinion, any price between 1440 to 1427 will probably provide an opportunity to buy again.
So, how would you plan your trade?
EURUSD: Trade Accordingly to StructureEURUSD consolidated further one the first trading day but has started to turn bearish as it broke below a minor rising trendline.
According to the current structure, the price may soon break below the current range and fall towards the demand zone just above 1.12, supported by a rising trendline.
Traders can choose to do a short-term sell at the demand zone which is formed after the breakout of the minor trendline.
Otherwise, wait for the price to fall further once the price is supported at the demand zone above 1.12, traders can choose to long with a tight stop loss just below 1.12 with a target profit as high as 1.135.
EURUSD: Reversal Confirmed; Buy the PullbackDuring Fed Powell's testimony last night, the market was certain that a rate cut will happen this month.
The dollar fell and EURUSD gained steadily after it broke above a falling trendline.
The falling structure has broken and a rising structure just started to form.
Wait for a pullback and look for buy opportunity around 1.126.