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Dailyoutlook

AUD/USD spikes to 0.7951Daily outlook - AUD/USD spikes to 0.7951 Fortunately for the Aussie, the poor US housing data that was released yesterday gave the currency pair a necessary impulse to break through the 200-hour SMA, the weekly PP at 0.7895 and even slightly overstep the weekly R1 at 0.7951. But then the rate became overbought and, thus, started to decline. In theory, today the Greenback has to try to restore some of the lost positions and slide to the 0.7852 level. Nevertheless, the buck is expected to fail to climb below the combined support level, which is formed by the above weekly PP in conjunction with the 200-, 100- and 55-hour SMAs. This scenario is supported by a summary of technical indicators, which also sends a strong buy signal for the 5H and 1D timeframes. In the meantime, the market sentiment remains 62% bearish.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CAD down 1.09%Daily outlook - USD/CAD down 1.09% The USD/CAD currency exchange rate had a quite turbulent Wednesday, as the Greenback depreciated against the Loonie by 1.09% and, in the result, broke through the southern boundaries of a medium-term and short-term channels. To a large extent the downfall was caused by disappointing news coming from both the White House and Census Bureau. After finding support below the weekly S1 at 1.2625, the currency pair started a gradual recovery. Most likely, today traders will try to push the price back to the 1.2711 mark that represents a point, from which the drop has initially started. On the one hand, market sentiment has not practically changed since yesterday and remains 71% bullish. On the other hand, a summary of technical indicators for the 5H and 1D timeframes send clear sell signals.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
NZD/USD surges on fundamentalsDaily outlook - NZD/USD surges on fundamentals In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate managed to restore lost positions and reached the 0.7279 mark. Basically, the pair had a chance to make a rebound from the 100-hour SMA and continue to move downwards in accordance with the general market sentiment, which is 58% bearish. However, publications of the FOMC Meeting Minutes gave the pair a new impulse and drive it up until the weekly PP, which is located at the 0.7331 level. For this reason, today the buck is expected to try to recover against the Kiwi. However, this might not be easy, as the road downstairs is blocked by the 100- and 55-hour SMAs. A summary of technical indicators support this vigilance by sending strong buy signal for the 5H timeframe. And, yet, for the 1D timeframe majority of technical indicators point out on fall of the rate.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/JPY climbs to 129.46Daily outlook - EUR/JPY climbs to 129.46 An early hours of Monday’s trading session revealed that the EUR/JPY currency pair has successfully used an upside moment that was created by a release of data on the US CPI last Friday to surge not only to the 129.46 level, but climb even a little bit higher. In theory, the pair has a chance to gain a foothold at the monthly PP at 129.78. However, three red candles in a row combined with the CCI and RSI technical indicators suggest that the pair has reached already its maximum and now will start to decline. If this assumption is true, then the minor overstep beyond the above 129.46 mark simply represents a bearish fakey pattern. This scenario is, generally, supported by the market sentiment, as 68% of traders continue to hold short positions on this currency pair.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
AUD/USD rebounds from 0.7916Daily outlook - AUD/USD rebounds from 0.7916 Contrary to expectations, an impulse created by a release of data on the US CPI last Friday was strong enough to drive the currency rate to the 0.7916 level, where it was eventually stopped by the 200-hour SMA. Since the surge was caused by a reaction on fundamental event, today the buck should try to restore some of the lost positions. For this reason, it is expected, firstly, to target the 0.7861 mark, from which the advance had begun, and, then, the 0.7845 level. This daily scenario is supported by the slightly increased bearish market sentiment, which currently amounts 59%. In addition to that, a summary of technical indicators also send a strong sell signal. Finally, today is a silent day in terms of macroeconomic data releases from both sides of the Pacific.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CAD finds support at 1.2674Daily outlook - USD/CAD finds support at 1.2674 In accordance with one of the scenarios expressed on Friday, the USD/CAD currency pair found support at the 1.2674 level. After spending some in a limbo between this support and a resistance set up by the updated weekly PP at 1.2689, it made an expected breakout to the top. However, now, when the markets a sleepy, the pair has stuck again between the 55-hour SMA from the top and the 100-hour SMA from the bottom. Market sentiment remains 72% bullish, an aggregate technical indicator also send a strong buy signal for the upcoming day. Such clues allow assuming that the pair will try to surge to the 1.2748 level that not only represents a point, from which the Friday downfall has started, but also the weekly R1. In case the pair will suddenly choose the opposite direction, the drop should be neutralized by the approaching 200-hour SMA.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
NZD/USD reaches 0.7292Daily outlook - NZD/USD reaches 0.7292 As it was expected, beginning of the new week the NZD/USD pair spent in a relatively horizontal and steady movement. Namely, the currency rate managed to climb to the 0.7330 level and then made a rebound a started to gradually slide back to the bottom. The first target, namely, the monthly S1 at 0.7294 it has already reached. As a multiple technical indicators send a strong sell signal, the pair is expected to continue the fall. The next likely goal could be the 0.7258 level and, eventually, the 0.7248 level, as the space between them represents not only an accumulation of take profit and limit orders, but also of the loss trades. Market sentiment support this scenario as well, as 67% of traders are bearish on this currency pair. Finally, 65% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are also set to sell.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
NZD/USD tries to reach 0.7310Daily outlook - NZD/USD tries to reach 0.7310 The rest of the previous trading session the New Zealand Dollar expectedly spent in a gradual advance against the US Dollar, trying to reach the weekly S2 at 0.7310. At the moment, it still has not reached the target even with the help from a release of information on the US CPI. On the other hand, such slow movement is in line with the general market sentiment, which is only 55% bearish, as well as with the summary of various technical indicators, which projected horizontal movement. It is quite possible that the pair will manage to bypass the above-mentioned resistance and jump towards the 100-hour SMA near 0.7319. If the surge will be stopped at this points, that would be a final evidence of existence of a falling wedge.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CAD returns to weekly R1 Daily outlook - USD/CAD returns to weekly R1 As it was expected, the USD/CAD currency rate bounced off from the 100-hour SMA near 1.2677 and once again surged to the weekly R1 at 1.2738, and even managed to bypass it for couple of hours. Fortunately for the Loonie, an announcement of information on the US CPI led to 33-pips depreciation of the Greenback. For the reason, the pair has two main options. Either it will find a support already at the above-mentioned 1.2677 level, or it will slip to a combination of the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP at 1.2636 and only then make a rebound. The first scenario seems more likely, as it is supported by multiple technical indicators, which send a signal that the rate is oversold. On the other hand, the second option represents a more sizable barrier for the given currency pair.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1
EUR/JPY slips to March 2016 high Daily outlook - EUR/JPY slips to March 2016 high In accordance with expectations, the Euro continued to depreciate against the Japanese Yen until the currency pair reached a support set up by the March 2016 high at the 128.18 level. Afterwards, the rate made a rebound and started to move in the upward direction similarly as it did yesterday. A release of the US macroeconomic data has only given an additional impulse for this upside movement. Most probably, the surge will be stopped near a combination of the 55-hour SMA and the monthly S1 at 128.79. However, even if the rate manages to sneak to the top, the Yen is going to try to restore some of the lost positions after the markets will calm down. The fact that the currency pair, generally, should continue to slip to the bottom is supported by 67% of traders with bearish sentiment.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
AUD/USD rebounds at 0.7867Daily outlook - AUD/USD rebounds at 0.7867 As it was expected, the currency pair failed to jump above the 55-hour SMA and spent the rest of the previous trading day near the bottom line of a medium-term descending channel. Most likely the pair could continue to move between these barriers, but a speech delivered by the RBA Assistant Governor Kent forced the Aussie to drop by 50 basis points. The further fall was prevented by the weekly S1 at 0.7867, which played a role of a springboard. Today the pair is expected to continue to climb to the top even though this endeavour, most probably, will be compromised again by the above 55-hour SMA. But such outcome would only additionally confirm an existence of a little descending channel that formed couple of days ago.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/JPY down by 1.19%Daily outlook: EUR/JPY down by 1.19% Contrary to expectations, the Euro broke out from a symmetrical triangle in the downside direction. In the process, the currency rate managed to bypass the medium-term ascending channel’s bottom trend-line, the monthly PP and R1 and the weekly S1 and S2. Even though 70% of traders continue to remain bearish on this currency pair, a number of technical indicators suggest that the 128.80 mark represents a point, where the rate became oversold. Due to that, the Euro might restore some of the lost positions and surge towards the above weekly S1 at 129.45. However, this climb upstairs is expected to have a short-term effect, as majority of traders continue to hold short positions. Moreover, now the rate is located below the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, which will exercise additional pressure and compromise any attempts to clear a path to the top.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
CAD/JPY 1H Chart: Channel DownCAD/JPY 1H Chart: Channel Down The British Pound is trading against the Swiss Franc in a short-term pennant formation. The pattern represents the aftereffect of announcement of the UK Official Bank Rate and the subsequent Governor Carney’s speech last week. By the early morning, the currency exchange rate has practically reached the breakout point from the little symmetrical triangle, which represents the pennant. Despite the pressure exercised by the 200-hour SMA from the bottom, the pair is still expected to slide downwards. The overall length of the flag pole should be equal to 50-70 basis points, which basically coincides with the nearest combined support level set up by the weekly S1 at 1.2619 and the monthly PP at 1.2614. After this continuation pattern ceases to exist, the rate most likely is going to make a rebound and the Sterling will start to restore lost positions.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD - Daily outlookEUR/USD prepares to start from weekly R1 Contrary to expectations, an announcement of the US Manufacturing PMI caused only an eight basis points market reaction. Thus, due to absence of any sizable fundamental events, the currency exchange rate spent previous trading session in a flat and steady movement along the weekly R1 at 1.1815, crossing it multiple times in both directions. Today the pair is expected to use an upside momentum provided by the approaching 55-hour SMA in conjunction with the lower support line of a rising wedge and try to climb to the weekly R1 located at the 1.1878 level. A number of technical indicators support this scenario, sending signals to buy the pair. On the other hand, SWFX traders continue to remain bearish on the pair even though not as strong as yesterday.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD - Daily outlookXAU/USD slips to 100-hour SMA The first half of previous trading day the yellow metal spent in a confident upward movement, supported by the 55-hour SMA near 1,267.26 as well as the release of a number of disappointing US macroeconomic data. Once an upside momentum was over, the buck started to restore lost positions and dragged the rate to the bottom, passing through the 20-, 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Given that SWFX traders remain slightly bearish on the pair, it might slip a little bit further towards the bottom trend-line of an ascending channel that is backed up by the weekly PP at 1,261.80 and the approaching 200-hour SMA. On the other hand, certain technical indicators send a signal that the bullion is already oversold and, thus, might start the surge without reaching the pattern’s boundary.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1
USD/JPY - Daily OutlookUSD/JPY encounters strong support level Contrary to expectations, the weekly S1 located at the 110.11 level proved to be a very strong support barrier. Namely, it managed to neutralize multiple attempts of the currency exchange rate to slide downwards, including the 34-pip fall that happened in the middle of the day, under pressure from the 55-hour SMA. As soon as the pair made a fully-fledged rebound, it started to climb upstairs, crossing the above 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Most likely, the surge will be stopped somewhere between the 111.00 – 111.20 levels, as they represent a location of the combined resistance level formed by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP. On gradual decay of the upside momentum also point out certain technical indicators, suggesting that strength of the uptrend is coming to an end.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Daily Outlook on USDJPYHi guys, today that markets are closed i thought i could share my outlook on USDJPY for the upcoming week: as you can see on the chart price has recently broke to the downside the previous support level, this means price is telling us it wants to go lower. Of course we shouldn't chase price, instead we should wait for it to come in our comfortable zones, like previous support that could turn into resistance. While coming there, price could form a simple consolidation pattern (like a flag, traingle or wedge). A break to the downside of that pattern would mean a continuation to the downside, where we have actually a lot of space. I'll update soon. If you want to ask questions or share your view, go ahead and comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1
2
Daily Outlook on USDJPYHi guys, today that markets are closed i thought i could share my outlook on USDJPY for the upcoming week: as you can see on the chart price has recently broke to the downside the previous support level, this means price is telling us it wants to go lower. Of course we shouldn't chase price, instead we should wait for it to come in our comfortable zones, like previous support that could turn into resistance. While coming there, price could form a simple consolidation pattern (like a flag, traingle or wedge). A break to the downside of that pattern would mean a continuation to the downside, where we have actually a lot of space. I'll update soon. If you want to ask questions or share your view, go ahead and comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1
1
Bunch of different clues on AUDNZD!Hi guys, i want to explain to you why i'm going to short this pair if price pulls back a little bit more. As you may know audnzd -0.12% has been moving upward without interruption: both in the daily and 4hr chart Rsi is in overbought condition, and this tells us that market is overextended and there's maybe some room to retrace and let the trend breath. Obviously i don't trade based off of only RSI , but it gives me a good indication of what the market could do. In this case we have different clues pointing in the same direction. First, we have structure at the black line level, together with a psychological threshold (1,0900): at this level you can see price has created a shooting star and then a nice engulfing candle. Also, there's a 618 retracement of the bigger daily leg that happens to be right at this level. With all those clues together i think there's no doubt. I'm going to short at the 1,09 level, with stops above the highs, and target1 at a 1,25:1 RR. Target2 to be determined more accurately. Good trading! Feel free to comment below for any kind of questions or if you want to share your view. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1
EURNZD has to decide where to go! Will it break or will it hold?Hi guys, just wanted to let you know that i'm watching attentively to this pair, since price is testing a very important structure level that acted as support and resistance many times in the past. As of now, i'm looking for weaknesses in order to short the market: notice that we're deeply in overbought condition and price is testing a psychological number (along with structure) so any other candlestick signal would make me sell at market. Nonetheless we should be ready to change our mind if price breaks the structure yellow zone so that we can take advantage of both the situations. Never be unprepared! Think ahead! I'll keep you updated. If you want to share your standpoint, feel free to comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1