Is GBPAUD now in a larger range? On the Daily chart (right panel) you can see the wedge GBPAUD has been respecting until Tuesday when a large sell of caused it to close outside. After a flush down on AUD news Wednesday, it saw strong buying pressure which looks to be resuming today after a drop early London.
I'm now starting to look at the 30m range from 1.9060 to 1.9320 as the way to play this. There is a decent way to go before we get to the top of the range, but it could manage it tomorrow given the 21 day ExMo is 140. At which point I may look to buy a Put for next week, and trade the intra-day price action on Monday as a way to gain exposure to potential downside without having to hold the over night risk on a tradition position.
Overall well worth watching as the Aussie pairs have been moving nicely in recent weeks and we want to capitalise on that while we can.
Dailyrange
10/2/23: Sell Setup on SPX10/2/23: Sell Setup: I was looking for a continuation set up on SPX. TK/SY session set a small range that held London but was taken out in the premarket session. This left a 1H/15m-FVG set up with a -OB on the 1H. Price trades into the 15m-FVG (L) and pushed down and failed to make a new low followed by EQLs being set in NY open session. Once the EQLs were made we traded back into the 15m-FVG(MT) and tapped into the mid point. I didn’t see the clean enter in the 15m but the 5m chart gave a great entry that I missed. My targets were the PDL, EQLs/Thurs PDL, and PWL.
No entry on the setup, had two attended two meetings back to back and I had to present on the calls.
This was the 1st set up I was looking for but I was on a work call and miss this one. This gave confirmations on the 5m/15m charts and this would have been a trade that would have hit the first target of 4274.08 then BE on the remaining.
This was the second entry I was looking for, higher into the 15m-FVG. NAS was also reaching into its own FVG which gave me a more validation this was a good setup. But as soon as we passed the mid point at 4297.80 it tanked without confirmations on any of the LTFs, even as far as the 1m chart.
This was the final entry, later than I would normally be looking for anything but also no confirmation and this was a good thing because the price could not take out the low and pushed back up off to the DL.
Sell
Entry: 4293.05,4297.80, 4284.39
SL: 4300,4303.65,4293.05
Targets: 4274.08, 4263.03,4238.23
We’re pushing up for now, we have NY session high, Weekly opening price, and Friday PDH
15m chart:
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/23/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2022
- PR High: 11558.75
- PR Low: 11520.75
- NZ Spread: 85.0
Evening Stats (As of 12:00 AM)
- Weekend Gap: = -0.74% (last week - not filled)
- Session Open ATR: 414.45
- Volume: 40k
- Open Int: 243k
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -31.75% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12390
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10680
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/22/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2022
- PR High: 11580.50
- PR Low: 11555.50
- NZ Spread: 56.0
Evening Stats (As of 12:30 AM)
- Weekend Gap: = -0.74% (last week - not filled)
- Session Open ATR: 414.59
- Volume: 31k
- Open Int: 236k
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -31.75% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12390
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10680
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/7/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2022
- PR High: 12614.50
- PR Low: 12577.75
- NZ Spread: 82.25
Evening Stats (As of 11:50 PM)
- Weekend Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 419.94
- Volume: 33k
- Open Int: 258k
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -25.25% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 14105
- Mid: 12960
- Short: 11480
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
GBPJPY - Where will we go after 150. ? 2020's bullish run into 2021 has most defintely surprised us all, but is it time for a potential reversal once we've exhausted the 150. level?
- I'm personally bearish once liquidity has been snatched between 150-150,500 where retail stops will be on last week's short sellers.
-A very interesting week or two coming for this pair I feel, has the mood changed?
-DXY strength could come into play next week, which could give that fundamental push to the yen.
-*First entry indicated is more of a potential retail buy setup and stop loss, I'd wait for a confirmation rejection from the bottom of the grey order block below before longs to 150-*
- Second entry shown gives me more confidence and confluence to take the trade depending on how momentum appears when approaching these key levels.
What are your thoughts?
This is only my perspective on potential price action that I shall be looking for over the coming days/weeks as indicated.
Market Range - Anticipating Price ExpansionI have mentioned several times in my post that when a pair didn't reach its minimum range based on the 20-day average daily range, the market will compensate that "pips shortages" in the following day, in two or three days or the following week.
These small ranges are more common in a flat market, where it is in an accumulation phase. "Ranging market begets trends" was the common belief back when I first started trading. I do not think it's necessarily true BUT I do believe ranging market or market in an accumulation phase, whatever you want to call it, will beget price expansion and more often than not, when the price do expand, it will pay back all the pips shortages few days/weeks earlier.
How can you benefit/what are the actionable you can do from this repetitive yet tend to be overlooked market behaviour? Here are the three things I tend to use this information into my advantage :
1) Liquidity Pool will be there in a day where the range is so small because price is in accumulation phase
2) You can start managing your trades as small ranges particularly after a price expansion, means a retracement or reversal will happen. This gives us opportunities to look for either continuation trades or to move your stops to protect your profits
3) If you have a trading signal during the accumulation phase, you can expand your profit target more than usual as the smaller the ranges in the previous day(s) the bigger the price expansion would be. The smaller the ranges and the longer is the period of accumulation, the bigger the liquidity pool going to be hence the more delicious the price expansion going to be
Zoomed in Trading Plan Based on H4 Setup : EURUSDRefer the main plan here :
I've marked the daily pivot level which I will be waiting for the bearish reaction if the price reaches there. The bearish reaction is either a) Bearish Engulfing Candle b) Dark Cloud Cover anything few pips above or below the daily pivot. The target would be the weekly range low.
If you like the trading plan, give me a follow and hit the "Agree" button. Thank you for watching
DOGEUSD DAY STRATEGYStep #1: Wait until you can spot a bar that has its daily range smaller than the previous three days
The first rule requires you to have the patience until the Nr4 pattern develops on the Dogecoin chart. When we have a daily trading range that is narrowed than the previous trading ranges it means that the price is contracting.
Based on our backtesting results we have found out that there is a high probability of a trend move after you spot this type of contraction. This is kind of a general rule because the markets do move from periods of contractions to periods of expansion.
This is the reason why this short-term price pattern is so powerful.
Step #2: Mark the High and the Low of the 4th day and switch to the 1 hour time frame
Our trade is taken the next day after the Nr4 pattern showed up. In order to have a clear view of the short-term price action we need to switch our focus to the 1 hour time frame. Before you switch the time frames make sure you mark on your chart the high and the low of the 4th day.
Step #3: How to buy Dogecoin: Buy only if the breakout of the Nr4 high happens during the first 5 trading hours.
We use the Opening Range Breakout technique to time the market and have an effective trade entry. The ORB is even more profitable if it occurs after inside days that have a smaller trading range than the previous 3 days.
Our Dogecoin trade doesn’t have an inside day, but nevertheless we want to buy only after we break above the Nr4 day high. Also, we want to make sure the breakout happens during the first five trading hours of the next day.
Trades based on the ORB – Nr4 pattern will show you a profit instantly.
Now, if the trade is not showing you a profit right away than your trade becomes more vulnerable. As a general rule, if after the first trading hour your trade is not in the green, you can safely close the trade at the market.
Of course, you can only do that if your stop loss hasn’t been triggered in the meantime.
Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the Nr4 day low
You can hide your protective stop loss below the Nr4 day low. Alternatively, you can also place your stop loss below the current day low as this will give you a better risk to reward ratio.
The ORB – Nr4 pattern tends to precede strong trend day activity, so your stop loss should be rarely hit. Both of these patterns can be traded individually, but when combined they tend to produce even more powerful trades.
Step #5: Take profit at the close of the first 1-hour bearish candle
Our take profit strategy is fairly easy and it’s slightly modified from the original strategy highlighted in the “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout” book written by Toby Crabel.
Even though the ORB pattern tends to lead to trend trading days we’re more conservative and want to quickly take profits. So as soon as the first bearish candle shows up we close the trade and enjoy our daytrade profits.
Alternatively, you can keep the trade open until the end of the day if you want to extrapolate more profits from the cryptocurrency market.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our Dogecoin cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
PM me if you want to read the complete strategy.