AUDUSD - The long roadevening traders, looking at this trend it seems, that after the daily candle on the 23/05/2024 closed on the outside of the trendline (due to the news) that on the 24/05/24 the pair regained the strength to then push back up and the daily candle has set stone back into the trend. is this a continuation? to me personally i feel this shall carry on. i have set a target for %50 on the fib level reaching to the next resistance level. do you agree? or perhaps think differently? either way, please share your thoughts! happy trading everybody! good luck! =).
Dailytrend
EURGBP - Short - Daily Trend BreakUsing the intra-day wedge to get short after we broke the Daily up trend yesterday. That candle did close bullish, but I think the intra-day wedge helps to establish the short bias. Target is perhaps optimistic but with a positive swap, I'm happy to hold overnight.
Stop above high of day at 0.86882
Targeting ExMo low/Previous days low around 0.86550
Broker SWAP: +0.17%
GBPCHF I Brief pullback and more upsideWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPCHF Analysis - Listen to video!
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Gold continue toward the $1952 USD; Break Even!!!Looking the Gold trend, we see that this par is up a lot, so in H4 I secure 82 pips from my price entry that was around of $1,900 USD. The break even is $1,908.15 USD, that is my protection of my all earns. Also, as Gold continue in H4 into this bullish channel, also I draw this purple line becuase Gold form it, and then, a blue line that indicate a resistance and now, is support. So, Gold was broke up the blue line and purple line recently, now we hope a little pull back so nearly of this purple line to then, continue toward the $1,952 USD.
The most curious in in Daily, we see that Gold is trying to broke up this bearish channel, and then, it's into this bullish channel, that is a good indication that Gold is bullish as bulls still bought more!!!
Congraluations guys if you follow this analysis on Gold, now you can to use a break even, also, if you see my recently publication of the Forex par: Euro/Canadian Dollar, there's another good posiiton for long if you want to look!!!
EUR/USD Short Setup Rejected the weekly resistance level with spinning top and pinball formations.
Met 61.8 fib level on the daily and wasn't able to take that out and saw bearish momentum shortly after.
Seemed to be a false breakout of the daily trend line and now we can see price action coming back to the downside and below the 8 EMA which confirms that this trend line should be respected.
Using the dollar index as a confluence we can see it is well supported at the 96.00 level and should pick up some strength around this region which would add more bearish momentum to EUR/USD.
Target 100 pips with 60 pips stop as price may come back up to retest 1.1460 once again.
AUDUSD Basic Daily StrategyRemember guys, keep it simple!
As you can see from the AUDUSD chart it is hugging the daily trendline tight. If it breaks and it is not a fakeout, buy that Aussie to the top! If it respects the trendline, wait, be patient and when the time comes it's time to short.
This doesn't work every time, but it can be a clear signal that the direction of any pair may be changing, and the other side of the market is taking over. Apart from sentiment analysis, this is a quick fire way to see if the currency is making a switch and changing major directions.
USDJPY/ SPX: NET RISK APPETITE - THE REVERSAL OR INTERDAY TREND?- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks.
- We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with yen breaking out the 107 level and equity indexes holding their gains/ in the green.
- However, at apprx 10am GMT BBC Radio 4 reiterated the 3wk old sentiments from BOJ govenor Kuroda, which downplayed the chance of helicopter money/ took a hawkish tone - which in turn then shifted markets into a mildly strong risk-off rally, with yen falling 150pips straight down and equities failing to hold in the green.
Where do we go from here:
1. The easiest thought, with Yen up 1% and gold up 1% is to think "the risk rally/ recovery is materially over, we should start positioning for the material risk-off downtrend that has dominated 2016 and get net short safe havens again" however by steeping away from the fundamental intraday signs for a moment/ looking at the technicals from a macro perspective, there is a promising underlying trend that has developed this past 2wks (since the risk rally began) which MAY mean this is NOT the case.
2. Firstly look at the daily of USDJPY below (my favourite Safe haven indicator of risk sentiment given FX being the fastest asset to process information) and SPX above (my favourite risk-on indicator of risk sentiment due to its nobility) - what do you notice?
- For the past 9 trading days (since the risk-recovery started) SPX has traded one day higher, then one day lower EVERYDAY and today seems to be no exception - we are on the lower day. 9-days is particularly enough to be certain but it is definitely something worth thinking about when considering if this is the doom and gloom end of the risk rally or merely an interday correction that the market has been happy with since the rally started.
- Correlation at 97% confirms this view - and high correlations are usually markers of a trend (e.g. one up one down) and harder to break so i definitely think this could be an interday trend lower for risk (before resuming higher again tomorrow) - rather than a risk-off reversal.
BOJ Kuroda's reiterated comments:
1. Kurodas reiterated comments today from 3wks ago was certainly the driver for the aggressive sell-off however, we have since moved 50-70pips higher than them levels so there is definitely something more macro at play as to why risk is struggling today e.g. the one day trend that has held.
Going forward:
1. It will be interesting to see if that pattern continues to hold true e.g. tomorrow is a risk-on day. Though the odds are against it with friday historically being the WORST day for stocks due to end of week book clearing - so before making any moves on Friday it may be even best to wait until Monday to decide if the risk-off sentiment is here to stay before switching your trading sentiment (as i said last weekend) - unless we were to see some aggressive selling off tomorrow e.g. UJ to <104 - this to me would confirm that the risk rally was over and I would turn a net seller of USDJPY and cut my risk holdings
- It seems weird that the ECB dovishness was enough to send EUR$ lower (never happens) but not enough to give risk a prop up - so it could well be that the macro trend of 1 up/ 1 down on the daily takes precedent no matter what + the BBC R4 Spat with kurodas comments earlier was just an emphasiser of the already established marco pattern?
- Time will tell.