Dairy
NZDUSD: Sentiment, Fundamental and Technical viewAccording to our online observations more than 80% of traders long NZDUSD right now!
However fundamentally by decreasing in price predictions of diaries, Kiwi could bear a more decline in long-term.
Next week RBNZD intrest rate decision could also change the market. (only if be different to predicitions).
Also China's political problesm with free world could effect New zealand more than Europe and USA!
Today might be good day to long for scalpers and other short-term traders.
But in mid-term and long-term We suggest shorting NZDUSD.
If just like us, you have some open short positions, it's good idea to clsoe some of them and short again in probable higher prices.
GBPJPY at support levelsThis trade analysis is part of my diary. Please let me know if it was helful but also your suggestion for improvements
GBPJPY experienced significant sell off over last week in line with expectations but much greater magnitude.
Price is now sitting at support and stochastic is significantly oversold. This is also close to 618 Fib retracement form the March move and we might see some profit taking at these levels.
Should the price continue it's downtrend we can see the next target for bears around 157. levels.
I like to add to my longer term bullish portfolio on this pair and I will be looking for consolidation and price action to support bullish move. I like to price keep above 158. levels and buy from higher high.
USDJPY profit taking after anticipated sell off. This trade analysis is part of my diary. Please let me know if it was helful but also your suggestion for improvements
Price dropped as the repatriation continued in Japan and this drove the value of JPY up. On the other hand Yellen dovish speech and relatively week although better than expected NFP didn't support April hike and doesn't support June hike neither and resulted in USD weakness. Now it's all about US hike expectation.
I see this to be close to the bottom of JPY pairs as BOJ will have meeting at the end of April and they might add another monetary policy tools to further weaken the Yen.
I have a longer term bullish view on this pair however due to the US weakness this might take a while to present itself. I don't see JPY going lower though.
From technical prospective pair experienced significant anticipated sell off on Friday and this week some profit taking might take place. I have closed my sell trade in profit.
Price might head up from 111.5 towards 112.00 before it might continue it's way down. As I'm a l onger term bull I'm waiting for higher low as a buy zone somewhere around 111.8 levels.
Should the price brea below 111.5 levels I would be targeting 110.5 for short sell trade.
Short EURUSD_ Sell retracements Long term view on EURUSD is to sell any retracement.
Technically speaking pair is still in the uptrend and bouncing at 21 EMA and yearly central pivot. Should that price retrace on 1 H and made HH I would be looking for the price action and sell.
Should that price break below yearly pivot we can wait for retracement sell from there.
I don't like to catch the falling knife so I would be patiently waiting for better sell zone.
Short term short Long term long continues for USDJPYThis trade analysis is part of my diary. Please let me know if it was helful but also your suggestion for improvements
Price action has been just fantastic. I have predicted retracement on the way up and were buying retracements. Now the price is approaching 21 EMA on daily chart.
This is also a resistance zone based on the price action and 113 Psych level that is generally speaking important zone for USDJPY.
Should the price broke the 21 EMA on the 1H chart and produce LL and LH I would be looking to sell short term until price retraces to 318 Fib retracement zone. 1H stoch is ready to start retracement cycle while on daily chart stoch is still up. This could be however as price is in the up trend.
Should the price retrace to the buy zone around 112. this would be a start of the new bull move
AUDNZD Long Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ CPI Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ CPI Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest Dairy Auction should bring a negative result for milk price pouder what should force the RBNZ to act further this year and give up the neutral stance. Further the El Nino should have a much bigger Impact on NZ's Economy than on Australia Economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep the Cash Rate unchanged throughout the year. The only thing i am worried about are the falling coal and iron ore prices what is more related to Australias ToT. Further the weakness surrounding about china is more bad news for the Land Down Under than for NZ because Australia Export round about 33 % to China, while NZ is only within the game with round about 20%.
Technically we are also preparing for a big move higher. This does not mean it could happens this or next week. But should the NZ CPI Figures and Dairy Prices tank, than the RBNZ has to act again. Currently the RBNZ expects CPI to shrink to -0.2%. But as said earlier, I am expecting a drop to -0.5%. Anyway, in the weekly and monthly chart we are forming a nice head and shoulders reversal pattern. What i am also wanted to say is: The iron ore and coal prices what i am worried about has fallen significantly already and the AUD adjusted to them a lot already. Anyway, short term we still have space to go a bit down to my area, but i am not thinking about that the AUD/NZD could test the Parity again. Further when we scroll back in history, we are at one of the most important support zones for this pair, what makes me more confident about it. Please let me know what you think. Thank you! Have a great sunday