Understanding Dark Pools█ Diving Into Dark Pools
In recent years, dark pools have become a significant part of the financial markets, offering an alternative trading venue for institutional traders. But what exactly are dark pools, and how do they impact market quality and price efficiency? This article delves into the comprehensive study titled "Diving Into Dark Pools" by Sabrina Buti, Barbara Rindi, and Ingrid Werner, which sheds light on the complexities of dark pool trading in the US stock market.
█ What Are Dark Pools?
Dark pools are private financial forums or exchanges for trading securities. Unlike public stock exchanges, dark pools do not display the order book to the public until after the trade is executed, providing anonymity to those placing trades. This lack of pre-trade transparency can help prevent large orders from impacting the market price, which is particularly beneficial for institutional investors looking to trade large volumes without revealing their intentions.
█ How Do Dark Pools Work?
In dark pools, the details of trades are not revealed to other market participants until the trade is completed. This lack of transparency helps prevent significant price movements that could occur if the order were known beforehand. Dark pools typically execute trades at the midpoint of the best bid and ask price in the public markets, ensuring fair pricing for both parties involved.
█ Why Are Dark Pools Used?
Dark pools are primarily used by institutional investors who need to execute large trades without revealing their trading intentions. Displaying such large orders on public exchanges could lead to unfavorable price movements due to market speculation and front-running by other traders.
█ Benefits of Dark Pools
Reduced Market Impact: Large orders can be executed without affecting the stock's market price.
Anonymity: Traders can buy or sell significant amounts without revealing their identity or strategy.
Lower Transaction Costs: By avoiding the public markets, traders can often reduce the costs associated with large trades.
Improved Execution: Dark pools can offer better execution prices due to the lack of market impact and reduced volatility.
█ Why Do Large Actors Hide Their Orders Using Dark Pools?
Large institutional investors use dark pools to hide their orders to:
Avoid Market Manipulation: Prevent others from driving the price up or down based on the knowledge of a large pending trade.
Maintain Strategic Advantage: Keep trading strategies and intentions confidential to avoid imitation or counter-strategies by competitors.
Achieve Better Prices: Execute trades at more favorable prices by not alerting the market to their actions.
█ Actionable Insights for Traders
Understand Market Dynamics: Knowing how and why dark pools are used can provide insights into market liquidity and price movements.
Monitor Market Quality: Be aware that increased dark pool activity can improve overall market quality by reducing volatility and spreads.
Assess Price Efficiency: Recognize that while dark pools can enhance market quality, they might also lead to short-term inefficiencies like price overreaction.
█ Key Findings from the Study
The study analyzed unique data on dark pool activity across a large cross-section of US stocks in 2009. Here are some of the critical insights:
Concentration in Liquid Stocks: Dark pool activity is predominantly concentrated in liquid stocks. Specifically, Nasdaq stocks show higher dark pool activity compared to NYSE stocks when controlling for liquidity factors.
Market Quality Improvement: Increased dark pool activity correlates with improvements in various market quality measures, including narrower spreads, greater depth, and reduced short-term volatility. This suggests that dark pools can enhance market stability and efficiency for certain stocks.
Complex Relationship with Price Efficiency: The relationship between dark pool activity and price efficiency is multifaceted. While increased activity generally leads to lower short-term volatility, it can also be associated with more short-term overreactions in price for specific stock groups, particularly small and medium-cap stocks.
Impact on Market Dynamics: On days with high share volume, high depth, low intraday volatility, and low order imbalances, dark pool activity tends to be higher. This indicates that traders are more likely to use dark pools when market conditions are favorable for large trades.
█ Conclusion
Dark pools play a crucial role in modern financial markets by allowing large trades to be executed without revealing the trader’s intentions, thus minimizing market impact and reducing costs. For retail traders, understanding the mechanics and implications of dark pools can lead to better-informed trading decisions and a deeper comprehension of market behavior. The study concludes that while dark pools generally contribute to improved market quality by reducing volatility and enhancing liquidity, their effect on price efficiency is nuanced. For small and medium stocks, dark pools can lead to short-term price overreactions, while large stocks remain largely unaffected. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the different impacts on various stock categories to make informed trading decisions.
For institutional traders and market participants, understanding the role and impact of dark pools is crucial for navigating the modern financial landscape. By offering an alternative venue for executing large trades discreetly, dark pools play a pivotal role in today's trading ecosystem.
█ Reference
Buti, S., Rindi, B., & Werner, I. (2011). Diving into Dark Pools. Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics, Fisher College of Business Working Paper Series, 2010-10.
-----------------
Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Darkpool
ISRG: Controlled Sideways Patterns Ahead of EarningsThe Medical Instruments and Supplies industry had stellar growth until 2022, when it could not beat that anomaly in revenue growth which was one of the primary reasons for the intermediate-term correction in 2022.
2023 patterned out the abnormal revenues and earnings for most industries that benefited from either the pandemic or from the government OVER-stimulation of the US economy via mega amounts of stimulus checks to WORKING people. Stimulus checks should have been allocated to the unemployed only. That would have lessened the impact of the resulting anomalies. If anyone had bothered to study pandemic history, the impact would have been much less severe for American families and the economy.
As with hundreds of stocks at this time, NASDAQ:ISRG is trending sideways. This is not a perfect platform yet, but the sideways action has some of the traits of a platform such as consistent highs and lows from the perspective of a weekly chart.
The stock is above its previous all-time high now, which provides a technical support level. The weekly chart shows that there has been Dark Pool accumulation and professional traders in the mix.
IF the earnings report next week shows steady growth in both revenues and earnings in the 1st quarter, and IF the CEO's projections are positive, the stock could have an HFT gap up. If there was a negative surprise coming, the CEO should have warned by now. HFTs can make mistakes and gap it down. But if HFTs trade it down, then the stock price will immediately run back up into that sideways price level.
If the report indicates a flat or minor improvement, then it is likely to remain within the sideways trend for another quarter.
A controlled entry above the highs of the current sideways action eliminates that risk factor for either swing trading or position trading.
Trade like the pros in dark pools█ Trade like the pros in dark pools
If you're accustomed to trading on the stock exchange, you know that an exchange operates like a digitalized marketplace. Buyers and sellers gather around a stock and indicate what they're willing to trade for, hoping that two orders will match. Before you decide at what price you're willing to trade, you likely look at the order book depth. There, we see how many shares are seeking buyers or sellers at a specific price.
For a trade to be completed, the so-called spread needs to be crossed. The spread is the difference between the buying and selling price, in the example above 20 cents (226.40 – 226.20). In stocks that are traded very frequently, the spread is smaller and it's seldom a problem to execute very large volumes on the open market.
█ Dark pools simplify trading in small companies
Many stocks have too small a turnover to place a larger order without significantly affecting the price. Therefore, professionals have used dark pools for many years. Leading brokers are now making this flow available to all their customers. The advantage of a dark pool is that you don't need to show your order to other market participants until a trade has been completed. This facilitates, especially, trading in larger volumes.
Another advantage of dark pools is that trades are made at so-called midprice. Returning to the example above, a trade would occur when someone is willing to pay the full spread of 20 cents. Had the order book been a dark pool, the midprice would have been 226.30 SEK. In this way, it results in a better price for both buyers and sellers. For those trading in larger volumes, this can mean a lot of money.
█ All orders pass through dark pools
The fact that dark pools are now available to everyone does not mean that all orders should be placed there. In fact, there are several barriers to how much trading can be routed this way before the dark pool is temporarily limited.
When you place a regular order, thanks to so-called smart order routing, it will check if a better completion can be achieved via this dark pool than on the open market. So, whether you choose to actively place an order in the dark pool or not, you can benefit from the characteristics of the dark pool.
█ Shouldn't the exchange be completely open?
A criticism of dark pools is that they are exactly as they sound, hidden. But all trades made in Nasdaq Stockholm's dark pool are visible under completions. Stocks with low turnover can be difficult to trade without significantly affecting the price.
⚪ Let's take another example. Here we have a stock where the entire buy side corresponds to just over 130,000 SEK. That's a lot of money, but not an unreasonable holding for a private individual. This is also an order book from a company with a market value of about 1.6 billion. Thus, a small company, but not so small that trading for a couple of hundred thousand SEK should be unreasonable.
Here, the spread is also 30 cents. Which is over one (1) percent on this stock price. Being able to halve this cost can save a lot of money both directly and over time.
It is also possible to hide parts of an order today. In the advanced order placement on the open market, there is actually a tool for that problem as well. There, you can set the visible number of shares to be shown in the order book.
█ When you should use the dark pool
If you have never had problems with your order placement, you probably don't even need to consider placing an order in the dark pool. But if you trade stocks where you need to split your orders to not swallow too large a part of the order book, it might be valuable to try.
-----------------
Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Demand on OilOil is presenting to us clear (marked with green rectangle) demand zone presented on chart. Yesterday there were multiple strong demand signals there identified real-time by Scanner. This zone becomes still valid, especially as it's placed within today's Balance Zone (between Gamma +0.25 and Gamma -0.25). Following price structure, it is supposed to retest demand zone from top and continue up move. Alternative scenario would expect to observe on chart consolidation in demand zone, as it's marked by market as fair price area.
$SPYCore PCE which is the Fed's favored methods in evaluating inflation just hit the wires and came in softer than expected, but still above the Fed's ideal. T&S is reflecting that pre-market traders are enjoying the news, albeit on low volume. It is the end of the quarter heading into the weekend so todays price action will be important, lets take a look at some levels
The majority of yesterdays darkpool action occurred below the bid, the areas with the most significant orders occurred at 401.27 & 403.64, we will look at these as local supports. bulls need a break above 409, bears need a break below 400.
these are the potential scenarios I will look for today :
long:
- break above PM high, retest & hold
- dip to yday's darkpool prints & hold
short:
- pop to PM high & fail
- break below yday darkpool prints, retest & fail
resistances: 405.22, 407.20, 409
supports: 403.64, 401.27, 400, 398, 396.62,393.69
Intraday ES 22nd March - Gamma + Options + Darkpool analysisGEX: Positive
Price above Gamma Flip Point - decreased Volatility
Structure of Gamma: Mostly negative, spread across multiple strikes
Expected Range: 3991 - 4077
Most probable end-of-day outcome: Price close above most negative gamma spikes (3990, 3940, 3840). Therefore Key Support is at 3940.
Gamma Spikes chart from my AI Data Analysis software
Yesterday's session was skyrocketing and honestly despite observing incoming Supply to the market near Resistance, price reacted weak to this area and after couple of hours continued to increase. As the result, we fulfilled most probable end-of-day outcome, but plan wasn't met accordingly to my expectations. Well, this is market magic 🙂
For today's session, we have similar expected end-of-day outcome where Support at 3940 is below bottom level of expected trading range at 3991. In general, on 3990 we see gamma spike, so this level works as significant support too. After climbing up, any supports are much lower than level of current price so seems the market can start shifting into Bullish sentiment. It's too early to confirm that, but something is happening. Let's keep observing.
From Resistance perspective, we have spike at 4040. Plan for today's trades I marked on second chart attached to analysis. Good luck!
ROKU Bottom Formation: Dark Pool Buy ZoneROKU is a good example of a high-risk sell short. The HFT gap was reversed the same day. You are looking at a Dark Pool BUY ZONE. Accumulation/Distribution confirms a shift of sentiment even as this stock turns down at a bottoming resistance level which is NORMAL and expected.
The company reports earnings for the holiday season in mid February. This makes for a common timeframe for a bottom formation's base to develop.
Gamma Levels StrategyHello Traders!
I am presenting in action how I trade intraday using Gamma Levels in Intraday trading. I discuss setups, SL and TP placement as well as market behaviour, including positioning of Smart Money from Options & Darkpool markets. I also introduce my personal Money Management approach, as this is key step in order to be successful (profitable) trader.
Automatic Gamma Levels Spot alternative on TradingView? Sure!By combining Options expiration data, DarkPool & process it by Machine Learning algorithm, we can get another perspective of market picture. One of the services is already trying to provide this data, however so far it requires manual work in order to apply those levels on the chart. I provide a way for automatic level recognition valid for intraday session, based on data calculated by ML/AI algorithm, exported to Quandl database and imported to TradingView indicator. When you add to that Call & Put Wall levels I publish on website, you will have all information in hand that you can use for intraday trading.
I provide current for the moment of writing analysis snapshot of 4 majors with applied Gamma Levels as well as key levels from Options&Darkpool data market. If you want to learn more and start having edge on the market (information is the key!), you will for sure find more details at my profile ;) I wish you all Big Profits on the market!
$KR Kroger remains bullish after PEGKroger recently came out of a cup and handle with a Power Earnings Gap (PEG) and has been digesting ever since, holding most gains and creating a nice VCP / Bullpennant like formation.
Today, there were about $117M in dark pools at $57, and giving the timing and price action my bias is to the buy side.
An idea would be to go long shares or calls with time.
I'm long the JUL 60c with 5,300 OI.
$AAPL Holding Above Prints and Shelves$AAPL Holding Above Prints and Shelves.
$149.58 - $0.57BN
$149.00 - $1.00BN
$148.20 - $0.74BN
$148.12 - $0.52BN
$147.83 - $0.55BN
$147.50 - $1.00BN
$146.52 - $0.98BN
$145.89 - $0.79BN
$145.69 - $0.38BN
$145.68 - $0.38BN
$144.65 - $1.00BN
$143.21 - $0.62BN
$143.13 - $0.50BN
$136.71 - $1.00BN
$134.35 - $0.61BN
$131.79 - $1.00BN
$127.75 - $1.00BN
$127.72 - $0.90BN
$127.27 - $0.51BN
$124.94 - $0.49BN
$124.66 - $0.70BN
$123.37 - $1.00BN
AFRM Long - Affirm Holdings, Inc. - The Triple Affirmed PlayAFRM Long - Affirm Holdings, Inc. - The Triple Affirmed Play (Flow, Dark pool, and Capital Inflows into Tech)
This long biased thesis is based on the following factors:
An aggressive series of short term bullish call option flow totaling $413.5k with a strike price of $70 coming in within the last 20mins of the day (July 1st) that exceeded Open Interest.
Approximately $20M in dark pool activity placed at key levels mid day. Although we do not know the nature of this we were able to see it act as respected levels through out the day and are currently trading above these levels. Also one of the dark pool prints came in at a respected fib level, further showing consistency with price action. Continued upside price action will further increased the probability that these trades were a buy.
Price action has been consolidating for around two months and is primed for a move, making the timing of the the options flow orders and dark pool activity that much more relevant to an upward move.
Bank of America Flow Show report released today (July 1st) showed an inflow of $1.1bn into the tech sector.
Bank of America comments came out with AFRM as a high conviction short-term recommendation.
Possible Threats:
The $212.62 fib defined level may show support where price action may struggle or bounce from.
Price has been rallying for the last two months and a half and a double top pattern had formed mid June, but continued price action may have already shown the pattern to have met its price potential.
Short term tactical sentiment for the tech sector is coming to an overheated area and a bearish downtrend may soon show up to push tech stocks, in general, downward.
That nature of the large dark pool trades are unknown and can only be inferred.
The July 1st dark pool levels are being used to define the following trade parameters:
Short Entry: price levels above, but in close proximity of the $68.27 (dark pool print)
Stop Loss: The invalidation of the ascending channel support line (conservative) or the break of lower dark pool level of $67.75 (aggressive)
Possible Targets:
$72.81 (currently) - Anchored VWAP (from all time high)
$79.30 - A support / resistance level that has been respected by prior price action
$85 - A fib level that may coincide with a ascending channel resistance line
$96.80 - The 50% retracement fib level from all time highs to all time lows
Other targets can be based on the fib levels show in the chart or by drawing support lines
This thesis/idea is just my opinion based on the information discussed within. None of it should be looked as a recommendation or as financial advice.
AFRM Daily Chart
CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top DropNYSE:CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top Drop
This short biased thesis is based on the following factors:
A double top that was recently formed and confirmed
A Bearish Three Black Crows candle stick pattern followed the second top (of the double top)
A large series of dark pool prints totaling around $882M came in on June 25th, all around the $216.31 price level. Although we do not know the nature of this trade, we are currently trading under this level and continued downside price action will further increased the probability that this trade was a sell.
Possible Threats:
The $212.62 fib defined level may show support where price action may struggle or bounce from.
Short term tactical sentiment for XLI is starting to recover from a bearish downtrend and may show upward momentum from here that could lift CAT up enough to hit the Stop Loss.
That nature of the large dark pool trades are unknown and can only be inferred.
The June 29 Bar is being used to define the following trade parameters:
Short Entry: $214.58
Stop Loss: $218.71
Possible Targets:
$207 - First meaningful fib level
$200.17 - A previous trend high that was used as a fib definition point
$197 - Based on a fib level that has show to have acted as reasonable resistance and support
$190 - Based on the rounding to a whole number on the closest fib level
Other targets can be based on the fib levels show in the chart or by drawing support lines
This thesis/idea is just my opinion based on the information discussed within. None of it should be looked as a recommendation or as financial advice.
NYSE:CAT Daily Chart
NYSE:CAT Weekly Chart
$MU Strat/Flow/DarkPoolTrade idea based on multiple factors:
Option Flow
DarkPool Orders
Strat Broadening Formation
Significant Sized Option Flow usually shows up first.
January 15th 2021 in the case for $MU
Followed by large Darkpool orders
Strat provides a lower low on the broadening formation and opportunity for time frame continuity to go green on multiple time frames.
Contract Price for 4/16 $80 was around $7 and exit price was around $13
$CCL breaks months-long flag and is cruising for a ~50% moveThe break of the flag which was followed up with a near perfect bounce off a retest of structure. Went long after it was noticed that this move coincided with significant dark pool buying activity and unusual options activity on August 6 and 7.
In the short-term, looking to target $17-$17.50 in the next few days to take most profits off and then add back in during a pull back. Long-term will look to take profit around $20.
CINF Platform Pattern Hidden AccumulationCINF is an S&P 500 index component. The chart shows a platform sideways pattern typical of Dark Pool hidden accumulation. This was followed by a long white candle that was not HFT driven. The stock is now in another consolidation, at a new high with more hidden accumulation.
CHKP: Intermittent Dark Pool accumulation and Pro TradersCHKP is one of the few stocks that has breached its previous all-time high, corrected mildly and then resumed the uptrend to new higher highs. The stock has a mixture of retail traders, pro traders and mild Dark Pool accumulation at times. The momentum will stall intermittently with profit taking from professionals.
JD: Strong bottom ideal for swing trading AND longer-term holdsJD.com Inc. has a solid and strong bottom formation that is working on completion, which will provide strong support for the next uptrend. These technical patterns are ideal for momentum and swing trading, position trading and also for long-term investing because the long bottom formation is built on Dark Pool accumulation.
JPM: Dark Pool rotation against buybacks ahead of earningsJPM kicks off the official earnings season this week with a report due out Friday. All attention will be drawn to these early banking industry reports that will set the tone for the entire 1st quarter earnings season. The stock has had buyback activity recently while some Dark Pools lowered their holdings. The chart shows patterns of Dark Pool rotation.
NVDA: Filled gap down, watch for pro trader pre-earnings runNVDA has filled the gap down from the negative earnings reaction in November 2018. The stock is likely to consolidate or shift sideways at this resistance level if it is to build energy to move higher. There is some Dark Pool accumulation in the bottoming pattern. HFTs have gapped this stock on earnings news in the past. Earnings will be reported May 9th. A month out is a good time to start watching for the pro trader patterns that lead to momentum in a pre-earnings run.