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Stock Pricing Above Fundamentals Ahead of EarningsWeekly Chart: NYSE:ANET reports today after the close. The stock has a short-term topping formation that is nearly completed. The prior runs went speculative but then corrected. The top is similar to the previous peak and the depth of correction is likely to be similar. The stock has simply moved beyond fundamental levels. This is NOT likely to turn into a long-term top unless there is something substantially wrong with the company and its products. To become an intermediate-term top, it must have lower highs and lower lows. That is not in the chart at this time. Ideally, the stock needs to shift sideways to build a much stronger support level to sustain a longer-term uptrend. HFTs are in the mix and may gap the stock on earnings news.
NYSE:ANET
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
NVDA Update: How Low Can She Go?NASDAQ:NVDA was over-speculated. It is a component of many ETFs based on all kinds of index funds, from semi-conductor ETFs to Big Blue chip companies, etc. NVDA was the big loss stock for the NASDAQ on Friday. The huge down day was due to many retail investors and smaller funds running for the door. This has nothing to do with its earnings report. It is a universal panic in the stock market. Pro traders bought the stock in the last few minutes of the trading day. Now the stock is close to being a buy on the dip candidate. The angle of descent is too steep to sustain but the price can collapse further as there is not a Dark Pool Buy Zone firmly established at this level. Revenues and earnings have been showing exponential growth but the next earnings report is a month away. Just keep in mind that the economy is booming. We had a nudge of higher inflation mostly due to oil prices but some due to corporate growth. Inflation = Growth.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Bottom Formation with Dark Pool Buy Zones: DISNYSE:DIS reports earnings next week and is attempting to complete the bottom formation that started last summer. The stock must now sustain above the bottom completion level at $95. Even though the market is over-speculating many index components, this stock is more likely to have sideways trends or platforms if the price holds above the new support level to complete its bottom. Dark Pool buy zones are evident within the bottom formation, providing fundamental and technical support.
NYSE:DISLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
How to See Fundamental Improvement in Technicals, $VRNT ExampleStocks that are forming bottoms right now are completing faster due to the improvement of their fundamentals in the current quarter. For example, NASDAQ:VRNT is moving out of the extreme dump by HFTs and retail groups. This is a common pattern that indicates shifting sentiment in a bottom formation. The candlesticks stairstep upward as Pro Traders get in the mix of Dark Pools buying at bargain prices. The largest Institutional investors who use Dark Pools to accumulate huge positions over time are the first to buy in a long-term uptrend, at bargain prices. It can be a very early signal, but these are the savviest fundamentals-driven investors in the market, so it pays to learn their footprints in stock charts.
NASDAQ:VRNT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Black Friday Buzz for AMZNThe Giant of e-commerce and AWS for small businesses, which now has AI integrated, is moving up in anticipation of a strong Black Friday for $NASDAQ:AMZN. The new CEO who took over form Jeff Bezos is doing a good job. As the CEO of the AWS division, he did an amazing job building that division of AMZN. Outstanding CEOs make a company great. CEOs are more important than most investors realize. Weekly Chart shows that AMZN is about 40 points from its all-time high, so plenty of opportunity for it to move up further from here. The Blue lines indicate levels where Dark Pool buy zones and Pro traders moved in most heavily. These are now strong support levels for the stock.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Solid Small Caps for EarningsAnyone finding interesting setups in small caps this earnings season? These often have more reliable patterns for swing trading. Since they are largely under the radar of the retail crowd, institutional patterns can be clearer. NASDAQ:CERE is an example of a stock coming up in TechniTrader scans today. It has 88% institutional holdings. A compression pattern is developing. HFTs have been in it recently, possibly due to intermittent accumulation. The strengthening of the sideways action is particularly visible with the RSI indicator. Dark Pool accumulation tends to cause controlled sideways patterns like this, a key ingredient for what we call Relational Technical Analysis at TechniTrader. Because this has had a swing-style run out of the last compression pattern at a low in this longer trading range, a swing trade could be considered on the breakout, either above today's high or above the last resistance level for a more conservative entry. (Green lines on the chart) My target would be 31, but of course I'd be watching for exit signals or an extreme pattern to take profits early. Stop loss at the red line on the chart. A more aggressive trader could look at an entry ahead of the close today if pro trader patterns emerge in the last 15 minutes with an exit shortly after the open if a run or gap up develops for an EOD to FOD trade. Happy Trading! Guest author: Mele Ainuu, Senior Technical Analyst, Student Support @ TechniTrader
CLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
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Think Before You Short: AMZN EarningsTraders need to check weekly charts when considering selling short stocks at this time. Many times there are strong support levels close to the current sold down price action. The weekly charts also provide more data for day and swing traders to determine the all important RUN GAIN POTENTIAL. This must be calculated before any trade to determine the Risk versus Profit Potential for that trade, regardless of whether the hold time is a few minutes or several days for swing trading. For many stocks, the recent selling down is not due to weaker earnings expectations but due to an overall reaction to retail news regarding international conflicts, US government uncertainties and regional wars. The key element for trading stocks short-term is to understand where support will kick in and halt a sell short trade. Understanding the functionality and the strength or weakness of a support level is crucial to attaining a high-profit trade. It is also a factor if you are waiting on the Dark Pool Buy Zone levels for getting into the stock for a run up from support levels. Below is a chart of AMZN, which reports earnings on Thursday this week after the market close. It shows that support is strong near the current price level. This indicates that the Dark Pool Buy Zone is within that technical price range. Selling short is inherently higher risk as the support level is a long-term trend strong support. Why is it so strong? 1. There is a several-week price range that held the stock up. 2. Highs are a support mechanism when the stock market is not in a long-term downtrend. ALL traders should know that this is not a bear market. Indexes are in a Trading Range. 3. The length of the candles is significant and relevant to the strength of the support.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Positive Earnings Gaps Seldom Fill: NFLXTo follow up on my analysis of NFLX from Wednesday ... Despite the market moodiness and selling, NASDAQ:NFLX reported well above estimates. HFTs triggered a huge gap up on heavy pre-open order flow yesterday. Volume was also huge, so smaller funds' VWAPs triggered and retail traders chased the stock while Pro Traders and HFTs made some big profits. Gaps up on positive earnings seldom fill completely. There is a strong support level at $350 which the gap up now confirms.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
NFLX Falling into a Dark Pool Buy Zone?While we all wait on the highly anticipated NASDAQ:NFLX earnings report at the close today, let's study the weekly chart to study the downside potential since the stock gapped down today on expectations of a weak report. Netflix’s percentage of shares held by institutions has recovered to a respectable 79%, which is more consistent with a company that is in favor with the Buy Side Institutions. There has been accumulation going on since the lows of 2022. Selling Short is problematic due to the support levels not far down from the current price and the risk of a hidden Dark Pool Buy Zone starting at the highs of the U-shaped bottom formation. The current run down is at a technical support level, which is where pro traders often nudge the price to trigger HFTs. Beware of the risk of an extreme reaction at the open tomorrow. During earnings season with a report at the close, pro traders often take profits either in the final minutes of the day to avoid the risk of a surprise, or shortly after the open to capitalize on the reaction to the report.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
GOOG: Bottom Completion FailureGOOG shows a failure to complete a bottom. The stock moved up and above the resistance level that needs to sustain to complete its bottom, but it failed to sustain the gains. This stock was part of the last New Tech Virtual Course I did, since it is developing several new technologies for its own use and to sell to other companies. AI is the big competition area right now, so GOOG may see added volatility this year as the market reacts to AI feature releases, as it did today. But the support range at the lows of this bottom formation is strong due to a Dark Pool Buy Zone that has been consistent.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
MSTR: Bottoming action to prepare swing tradesMSTR would benefit from a stock split. It is pricey for today's market conditions. It is showing improvement in its trend. The resistance above the high range is short-term and moderate. This would more likely be a swing style trade based on the runs and trend. There was a Dark Pool buy zone over the formation of the bottom. This can be a precursor for upside momentum. Because of the current price range, it has room to run with momentum, however Risk Analysis is a factor.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
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