Did you miss NVDA's move? What now?NVDA's gap up on a stellar earnings report should NOT have been a surprise, as the chart has been showing strength since January when I mentioned it in my Morning Reports. It was completing the bottom at that time.
The trend upward was showing pro traders in control of price after Dark Pool quiet accumulation. It has 64% of the shares held by institutions, which is normal for a giant-cap stock. It should actually be a Dow 30 component rather than INTC but, alas, that won't happen for a while.
NVDA stair-stepped upward. This is probably one of the hardest trendline patterns to see without rectangles drawn around the step, but one of the most important to recognize professional buyer dominance.
What now? The gains are now extreme. And the pros are taking profits. That means there is very high risk for buying at this moment.
CAN it move higher? Of course! Euphoric retail buying can easily drive prices upward further for a short period of time. Just remember that without institutional buying at this level, any upside from here may be short-lived.
Darkpools
$SPYCore PCE which is the Fed's favored methods in evaluating inflation just hit the wires and came in softer than expected, but still above the Fed's ideal. T&S is reflecting that pre-market traders are enjoying the news, albeit on low volume. It is the end of the quarter heading into the weekend so todays price action will be important, lets take a look at some levels
The majority of yesterdays darkpool action occurred below the bid, the areas with the most significant orders occurred at 401.27 & 403.64, we will look at these as local supports. bulls need a break above 409, bears need a break below 400.
these are the potential scenarios I will look for today :
long:
- break above PM high, retest & hold
- dip to yday's darkpool prints & hold
short:
- pop to PM high & fail
- break below yday darkpool prints, retest & fail
resistances: 405.22, 407.20, 409
supports: 403.64, 401.27, 400, 398, 396.62,393.69
ROKU Earnings: Not Bad But Not GreatROKU has an incomplete bottom ahead of its earnings report later this week. The technical patterns don't indicate a bad report, just not a great one.
There is some accumulation and a shift of sentiment around the lows of the bottom formation, which are likely to provide support. It is unlikely that this stock would drop further than the Dark Pool Buy Zone unless it has a bad report.
The company has struggled with Market Saturation for a while. Some strategic partnerships recently and in the future may be what the stock needs to stabilize here to eventually begin the next uptrend.
Weekly chart showing strong long-term support for the current bottom formation:
JPM Earnings Reversal PatternJPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported earnings today for the 4th quarter. There was no surprise for the professionals and for the Dark Pool Buy Side Institutions. They already knew what the numbers would be.
Today's candle was not just a bullish engulfing candle. It is what we, at TechniTrader, call a major fundamental REVERSAL candlestick pattern.
This is a huge one-day reversal that started out as a High Frequency Trader (HFT) gap down on negative expectations from the retail side and social media telling traders to sell short JPM. Those retail day traders who tried to sell short JPM got whacked big-time. Margin calls are likely, as the sell short losses on this large of a reversal candle are huge.
Why did the stock price reverse so quickly? The outlined area of the sideways consolidation pattern reveals Professional Traders’ setups ahead of the earnings report. The stock dipped into this price level, and then buying commenced that is well above average for JPM stock.
ES1! RALLIES & FALLS (UPDATE)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided an updated version of my previous chart for ES1! .
POINTS:
1. Price Action has broken previous pennant and fallen into a consolidation phase.
2. Breaking through this consolidation phase would either require breaking 3900 to the upside or 3800 to the downside.
Current Fall Percentage = -9.47%
Current Fall in Points = -1585
Average Fall Percentage = -14.63%
NOTE: *Highlighted Channel 3800 - 3900 is current price action range where DIX HAS SHOWN TO SPIKE THE MOST.
CME_MINI:ES1!
AMZN: Moving into A Buy Zone?The Weekly Chart of AMZN shows that the stock has dropped into a strong support price level with a risk that there could be a Dark Pool Buy Zone here. The share price is now below fundamental values.
With a month before AMZN reports earnings, it will be interesting to see how the stock behaves; it will reveal how well AMZN is recovering from the hyper revenues created by the stay-at-home orders and stimulus checks of the pandemic. This is the last quarterly report that will be skewed with the revenues and earnings from the pandemic anomaly.
This company MUST provide a dividend soon.
Dark Pool & Block Prints as Support and ResistanceAs of December 9, here are the main support and resistance levels as informed by smart money order flow (darkpool and block prints over $1 million). The white trendline is the one that has connected all the major peaks in 2022. The yellow trendline has acted as support from the October low, until it was broken on 12/6. A few things to keep in mind:
$5.9B of prints following Powell's speech on 11/30 and the following day, at around SPY $407. This has been the intermediate peak so far over the last few months. We can likely conclude that this is smart money selling, and will probably be a significant point of resistance.
At the end of the day today we got $1.7B of prints at SPY 393, the low of the day. There's also a lot of technical support in this area. Price has bounced off this level numerous times. Therefore, in my opinion, these prints are likely smart money buying for a push higher during what is statistically one of the strongest times of the year.
The point of control (price at which trading volume is highest) is around SPY 395. That's the POC for the last two weeks, as well as the POC for the entirety of 2022. It's also roughly halfway between the white trendline and the November CPI gap. Overall, this is a pretty neutral spot going into next week's CPI release and FOMC meeting.
Dark Pool Buy Zone Patterns: BA ExampleA corporate aggressive stance to accelerate Boeing's recovery from the pandemic created buying activity during the index sell down over the past few days.
BA is one of the few companies on the Dow moving up while the majority of components were being sold down.
This is an example of how quickly a stock can reverse from selling down to resumption of its trading range or bottoming action. This is a range-bound run up. The technical pattern has some pro traders in the mix. The run is above the accumulation level for Dark Pools.
Entry Points in NFLX Ahead of EarningsPlatforms ahead of earnings is an important pattern to watch for. Platform-building markets develop on the dominance of institutional investors buying quietly with controlled orders via the Dark Pools.
NFLX has a classic "quiet accumulation" pattern, also known as a Dark Pool buy zone. These platforms provide strong support for the bottom formation, especially since this was a breakaway gap.
Dark Pool Buy Zones and Sell Short Risk: LCIDDark Pool buy zones tend to provide strong support for stocks running down. If a stock violates the lows of such support, the rebound tends to come quickly, erasing any sell short profits.
This young EV auto manufacturing company is near its IPO price range, which is strong support. The retest of the lows of this bottoming action doesn't show much downside potential for a strong sell short.
There is risk that LCID may gap or run down but then reverse quickly and move back up. Whipsaw reversal candles near Dark Pool buy zones can cause big losses for short sellers at this level.
Bottoming Patterns with Rising LowsThis bottoming pattern shows retests of the lows and how, over time, the lows of the retests start to rise. This tends to be a footprint of Dark Pools quietly accumulating over time.
CRM has recently added Artificial Intelligence to its software to promote and sell more of its customer management software solutions to mid-sized businesses.
Dark Pool Buy Zones in Bottom FormationsIt may be difficult to be optimistic about the future at this time, but it's the BEST time to be on the lookout for Dark Pool Buy Zones in bottom formations.
When it's all doom and gloom is when the largest buy-side institutions are accumulating bargain-priced stocks, acquiring their huge lots of shares as the last of the small-lot sellers capitulate.
Therefore, divergences are important to think about for identifying where the Dark Pools are accumulating. For example, FIZZ was still moving down when the Accumulation/Distribution indicator started rising. This is a very likely Dark Pool buy zone.
Entry requires confirmation that the bottom is likely to complete soon, but this early divergence pattern gives both traders and investors lead time on a good entry at some point down the road.
I'm teaching more about how to identify Dark Pool Buy Zones TODAY at the MetaStock Traders Conference. It's a FREE event with many other trainers. I'll be on at 3 pm ET. Hope to see you there!
Technical Analysis for Risk AnalysisTechnical Analysis should be used for Risk Analysis, not just for deciding if and when to buy whatever it is you want to trade, whether it's stocks, crypto, forex, indexes, ETFs, REITs, mutual funds, etc.
When you know the technical patterns that point to higher risk, aka sellers gaining traction, you can get out of long positions before the retail crowd and its small fund managers react late to earnings reports.
It is NEVER the largest institutions, who we call the Dark Pools, who are selling on earnings announcements. It is ALWAYS the less informed who buy or sell on big news days.
This is what we at TechniTrader call "Relational Technical Analysis"--the application of what we know about the market participant groups to discern who is doing what in the technical patterns of a chart.
For example: UPST was a struggling IPO anyway. The typical IPO top and drop occurred in October-November. 99% of new IPOs do this. Learn to sell at the peak of a speculative new IPO. That means you must learn what speculation looks like in the charts and how to recognize the top developing so you can get out before the drop.
But today's lesson is about the specific set of negative technical patterns developing ahead of Upstart's earnings report yesterday after the market close:
1. A trading range was developing lower highs and lower lows.
2. Compression of price at the low end of the range.
3. Declining Accumulation/Distribution over the sideways action of the trading range.
These are what we at TechniTrader call the "footprints" of controlled rotation out of the stock ahead of the earnings press release date.
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RDBX: HFT action out of Dark Pool buy zoneRDBX had HFT action out of the bottom where there was a clear Dark Pool buy zone. It's moving into resistance from the low of the topping formation around 10 where short-term Pro Traders have begun taking profits.
Retail traders need to learn to take the cue of the professional side using what TechniTrader calls "Relational Technical Analysis." When you learn where and how the Dark Pools accumulate, you can buy BEFORE the HFTs push price too far up to sustain.
Dark Pool Buy Zones™Some traders try to watch Level 2 data to discern when the large-lot orders come through to get an idea of when the big institutions are accumulating in the Dark Pools, but you really don’t need that. Plus, whether that’s accurate is questionable since Dark Pool transactions are reported way after they were transacted.
“Dark Pool buy zones” is a term I coined because Dark Pools use precise controlled orders that trigger automatically over extended periods of time. Since the Buy Side Institutions using the Dark Pools are primarily buying for the long term, price can sometimes drop down before moving up, creating a range in the price action, what I call “the buy zone.”
When you learn to recognize the Dark Pool Candlestick and Indicator Patterns, you can be ready for the bottom to develop and look for Dark Pool accumulation patterns to plan your trading.
Below is an example. Ford is still falling, but the Dark Pool buy zone support is close. I’ll be waiting to see how the bottom develops around that level before making my decision to trade.
Happy TechniTrading!
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Oil shift to downtrend? Options and AI whispersWe can observe at the beginning of this week major shift in sentiment of the traders with Oil in their portfolio. As previous week still we saw money put on 130$, this week the last major level as Call Wall is at 100$. I would even include scenario that around that level we can go slightly higher due to Virgin VPOCs at 102 and 104.5 - still though it should be short-term run and only possible if wet closer to 100$ first.
So far we can observe downtrend on Oil. If 92.2$ will be broken, downtrend can continue. The next major Options and Darkpool markets Support lays at 80$. Before that there is no other level (so far) that can stop this move.
$CLSN Long term PTs 40-50 and higher...Parabolic!Celsion Corporation, a clinical stage biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of DNA-based immunotherapies, vaccines, and directed chemotherapies. Its product pipeline includes GEN-1, a DNA-based immunotherapy for the localized treatment of ovarian cancer; and ThermoDox, a proprietary heat-activated liposomal encapsulation of doxorubicin, which is in development stage for various cancer indications. The company also has two feasibility stage platform technologies for the development of nucleic acid-based immunotherapies, vaccines, and other anti-cancer DNA or RNA therapies. Celsion Corporation was founded in 1982 and is based in Lawrenceville, New Jersey.
S&P500 idea based on current Options & DarkPool dataShortly and succinctly, but on the subject - how I see it from Swing Trading approach when it comes to option data and S&P 500. After the last OpEx, I expect a temporary advantage of Bulls with a short break around 4500. The move will end in the supply zone 4548-4567, where Virgin VPOC from 10.02 should be retested. Then a few subsequent sessions will bring drop in price, retesting Virgins on 4357 and 4220.
Options data is available for free - inquisitive and curious traders I invite you to my profile and via DM. This data will allow you to get a market advantage now, by indicating sentiment and key levels where a billion dollars from Smart Money has been placed - as they use options for hedging their risk.
$CSCW Next Target PTs .45-90 and higherColor Star Technology Co., Ltd., an entertainment and education company, provides online entertainment performances and music education services in the United States and China. The company operates Color World, an online platform of curriculum that includes music, sports, animation, painting and calligraphy, film and television, life skills, etc. Its Color World platform provides celebrity lectures, celebrity concert videos, celebrity peripheral products, and artist interactive communication services. The company was formerly known as Huitao Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Color Star Technology Co., Ltd. in May 2020. Color Star Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is based in New York, New York.
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 11/28 - 12/3Last week was super interesting on multiple fronts (Powell sticking around, new Covid variant, etc.). Despite seeing a big risk-off movement due to Omicron strain on Friday, we are long-biased going into this week. Here is why:
1. There was **heavy** dark pool activity in SPY
2. The sell off on Friday pushed dealers into a huge negative gamma position (appx. -$1.4 Billion). When we see high dark pool prints AND low gamma prints, this very often leads to a reversal
3. VIX was sent into orbit on Friday, closing just under 29 (plenty of room for a VIX crush rally). Additionally, there was large amount of dark pool activity in SVXY on Friday (which is short VIX).
Since we're long-biased, our ES plan is pretty simple:
1. Would love the opportunity to get long in BTD 1 area. I will look to get 4600 calls for end of December or January
2. I want to see a close above Bull Target 1 area for more upside. If we fail to close above early this week, we likely will need to change our bias
3. If we do close above Bull Target 1, retracements back into Bull Target areas can be used as long entries.
Note: this is purely based on technical analysis. Any news around Omicron being vaccine-resistant (for example) will likely have a huge effect on the market and will take precedent over this analysis.
$CCL breaks months-long flag and is cruising for a ~50% moveThe break of the flag which was followed up with a near perfect bounce off a retest of structure. Went long after it was noticed that this move coincided with significant dark pool buying activity and unusual options activity on August 6 and 7.
In the short-term, looking to target $17-$17.50 in the next few days to take most profits off and then add back in during a pull back. Long-term will look to take profit around $20.