DATA
The Importance of BTC.D, TOTAL2, and USDT.D
Currently my indicator is suggesting BITCOIN IS WEAKENING whilst ALTS ARE STRENGTHENING and USDT is at the lower spectrum of its range suggesting crypto investment is the best option.
Let's dive into understanding market dominance and liquidity metrics and why it's crucial for navigating the cryptocurrency space effectively. Three key metrics—BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance), TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin), and USDT.D (Tether Dominance)—offer valuable insights into investor sentiment, market trends, and potential shifts in liquidity. Let's explore these metrics, their typical ranges, patterns to watch for, and how they interact with a MACD-style crossover indicator which I designed to identify opportunities in Bitcoin, altcoins, and stablecoins.
BTC.D: Bitcoin Dominance
BTC.D measures Bitcoin's market cap as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap. It reflects investor preference for Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.
Typical Range
Normal Range: 40%-60%
BTC.D tends to rise during bearish markets as investors flock to Bitcoin's perceived safety. Conversely, it often declines during bullish markets when altcoins outperform.
Key Patterns
Double Top: Indicates potential weakening in Bitcoin dominance, suggesting a shift in capital to altcoins.
Double Bottom: Signals strengthening Bitcoin dominance, often as investors move back into Bitcoin for stability.
TOTAL2: Altcoin Market Cap (Excluding Bitcoin)
TOTAL2 represents the market capitalization of all altcoins combined, excluding Bitcoin. It is a direct measure of the strength of the altcoin market.
Typical Range
Normal Range: Highly variable, as altcoin performance can spike dramatically during "alt seasons."
TOTAL2 increases during periods of high altcoin interest and speculative growth and declines during risk-off periods when investors sell altcoins for Bitcoin or stablecoins.
Key Patterns
Rising TOTAL2 + Falling BTC.D: Indicates an alt season where altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin.
Falling TOTAL2 + Rising BTC.D: Suggests a return to Bitcoin dominance, typically during periods of market uncertainty.
USDT.D: Tether Dominance
USDT.D measures Tether’s market cap as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap, reflecting how much liquidity is parked in stablecoins.
Typical Range
Normal Range: 3%-7%
A high USDT.D suggests investors are moving into stablecoins, indicating risk-off sentiment. Conversely, a low USDT.D implies funds are flowing into riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Key Patterns
USDT.D at Top of Range (~7%): Sign of high risk aversion. Typically, Bitcoin and altcoins are weakening, and liquidity is concentrated in stablecoins.
USDT.D at Bottom of Range (~3%): Suggests a bullish environment where funds are flowing into Bitcoin and altcoins.
The MACD-Style Crossover Indicator
The MACD-style crossover indicator I built is for BTC.D, TOTAL2, and USDT.D simplifies these complex relationships into actionable signals. It plots all three metrics on a normalized scale and identifies key moments of transition:
Bullish Alt Season Signal:
When TOTAL2 crosses above BTC.D, it signals a potential alt season, where altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Dominance Signal:
When BTC.D crosses above TOTAL2, it suggests Bitcoin is regaining dominance, often during market corrections or risk-off periods.
Stablecoin Signal:
When USDT.D crosses above BTC.D and TOTAL2, it indicates heightened risk aversion, suggesting a move into stablecoins as the market cools.
What These Metrics Mean for Market Liquidity
Liquidity flows are the lifeblood of the cryptocurrency market. These three metrics reveal where capital is moving:
BTC.D High + USDT.D High: Indicates a risk-off environment. Investors are prioritizing safety, suggesting Bitcoin and stablecoins are preferred over altcoins.
BTC.D Low + TOTAL2 Rising + USDT.D Low: Signals a risk-on environment, often the hallmark of an alt season. Investors are willing to speculate on higher-risk assets, driving up altcoin valuations.
TOTAL2 Falling + USDT.D Rising: A clear sign of capital exiting the market. Altcoins are losing value, and funds are moving to stablecoins, often leading to market corrections.
Conclusion
By tracking BTC.D, TOTAL2, and USDT.D together, investors gain a comprehensive view of the cryptocurrency market's dynamics. The interplay between Bitcoin dominance, altcoin market performance, and stablecoin liquidity provides a roadmap for understanding capital flows and market sentiment.
The MACD-style crossover indicator I built adds another layer of insight by simplifying the relationships into actionable signals. Whether it’s identifying the start of an alt season, a return to Bitcoin dominance, or heightened risk aversion favoring stablecoins, this tool empowers traders with timely and relevant information.
The next time you analyze BTC.D, TOTAL2, and USDT.D, remember these ranges and patterns. They’re not just numbers on a chart—they’re the key to understanding the market's pulse and positioning yourself strategically for the next big move.
Update: Trade closed $138 $VRTOne of my best performing single name equities of 2024 - $NYSE:VRT. I've closed most of this trade because it has swollen to be a larger portion of my portfolio than was intended, i.e. portfolio rebalancing. I will keep VRT on my watchlist as a new leader in the AI infrastructure category and a YTD leader overall. I will shop for pullbacks to the 18, 21, and even 50 day moving averages, or a new pattern development -- the latter would take at least several weeks from now to form with enough duration for me to be interested.
My goal is to lock in this profit and to not give it back.
#DATA (SPOT) entry range( 0.03400- 0.0427) T.(0.0643) SL(0.0330)BINANCE:DATAUSDT
entry range ( 0.03400- 0.0427)
Target1 (0.0643)
2 Extra Targets(optional) in chart, if you like to continue in the trade with making stoploss very high.
SL .1D close below (0.0330)
1:2 Trade
**** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA****
HeartCore Partners with NTT Data Business BrainsExciting news from HeartCore Enterprises, Inc. (Nasdaq: HTCR)!
The Tokyo-based enterprise software and data consulting company has entered into a strategic partnership with NTT Data Business Brains Corporation, a subsidiary of the well-known NTT Data group. This collaboration is set to take NTT Data Business Brains’ website development services to the next level.
NTT Data Business Brains has built a strong reputation in Japan for constructing static websites, but with 84.9% of Japan's population using the internet and 78.1% engaged on social media, there's increasing demand for more interactive and user-centric online experiences.
That’s where HeartCore’s CMS platform comes in. By integrating HeartCore's advanced CMS, NTT Data Business Brains will be able to offer dynamic and engaging websites, packed with modern features that today’s users expect.
HeartCore’s CEO, Sumitaka Kanno, emphasized that this partnership is part of the company’s broader mission to help businesses modernize their digital presence. With this collaboration, HeartCore continues to expand its influence and reliability in Japan's rapidly evolving digital landscape.
Armageddon after the election, huh?Someone yesterday dumped a lot of money into an options portfolio, that's designed to lower the price of December US10-year Bond futures. That automatically means more US 10Y yield, and since there's a strong correlation with the Dollar, it also means the Dollar is going up.
The most curious thing is watching how the S&P 500 makes ATH during rising Dollar.
Such synchronicity has historically led to powerful corrections, and something tells me that it will not be the Dollar.
Now, I ain't saying we should all go out and start selling stocks like never before. But what I am sayin' is that maybe, just maybe, we should take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Maybe the market's got some more room to run, and maybe we should be lookin' for opportunities to get in on the action.
So, yeah, the option sentiment's looking a little bearish, but that don't mean we should all be running for the hills just yet.
Let's keep our cool, do our research, and see what the market's got in store for us.
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Meta and Spotify Criticize EU’s AI Decisions Stock up 3.53%On Thursday, Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ), along with Spotify and several other tech companies, voiced strong criticisms against the European Union’s approach to data privacy and artificial intelligence (AI) regulation. In an open letter, these firms, along with researchers and industry bodies, claimed that the EU's decision-making has become "fragmented and inconsistent," warning that Europe risks falling behind in the global AI race.
The Regulatory Clash: Meta and GDPR Tensions
Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ), which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, has been at the center of data privacy controversies in Europe, especially under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Recently, Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) halted its plans to collect data from European users to train its AI models due to pressure from privacy regulators. This followed a record-breaking fine of over one billion euros for breaching privacy rules.
The company, along with other tech giants, has delayed the release of AI products in the European market, seeking clarity on legal and regulatory frameworks. For instance, Meta delayed the launch of its Twitter alternative, Threads, in the EU, while Google has also held back on AI tool rollouts in the region.
The open letter signed by Meta, Spotify, and others calls for "harmonized, consistent, quick, and clear decisions" from data privacy regulators to enable European data to be used in AI training. The companies argue that without a coherent regulatory framework, the EU could lose its competitive edge in the global AI landscape, falling behind regions like the U.S. and China, which have been advancing rapidly in the field.
Meta’s AI Ambitions and Strategic Moves
Meta’s criticisms of the EU regulations come at a time when the company is heavily investing in AI technologies to enhance its social media platforms and introduce new products. AI is at the heart of Meta’s push toward the metaverse and other cutting-edge innovations. The company’s reluctance to release certain AI products in Europe is a direct result of the regulatory uncertainty, which hampers its ability to fully capitalize on its technological advancements.
With the EU’s AI Act coming into force this year, it aims to curb potential abuses in AI usage, but this stringent regulation may slow down innovation and delay product launches in the region. Meta and other tech giants believe that clearer rules will help unlock the potential of AI while protecting user privacy.
Technical Outlook: A Bullish Meta Stock Poised for Continued Growth
From a technical perspective, Meta’s stock ( NASDAQ:META ) has been on a stellar upward trend since November 2022, and it doesn't show signs of slowing down. As of the time of writing, the stock is up 3.66% and has entered overbought territory with an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 70.54. This indicates that the stock may be poised for a temporary cool-off.
The stock's rise has been bolstered by broader market optimism, including the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This move is expected to benefit the tech sector, with Meta standing to gain significantly. With lower borrowing costs, tech companies like Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) can continue their aggressive expansion into AI and metaverse-related technologies.
Meta’s stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) also exhibits a gap-up pattern that hasn’t been filled, suggesting a potential correction or consolidation period. Additionally, the stock has been consolidating since February 2024, indicating a potential bullish continuation pattern. However, with the RSI in overbought territory, investors should watch for a short-term pullback to cool off the stock before resuming its upward trajectory.
Meta’s AI Potential Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) is navigating a complex regulatory environment in the EU while continuing to make strides in AI and technological innovation. Despite the challenges posed by GDPR and the AI Act, Meta remains well-positioned for long-term growth, with its stock reflecting strong momentum. However, short-term volatility due to regulatory decisions and technical factors may present buying opportunities for investors. As Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) continues to push the envelope in AI and the metaverse, the company’s future success will largely depend on its ability to navigate these regulatory waters while maintaining its innovation edge.
BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle.
Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey.
The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same.
I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action.
Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut.
By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you.
Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
(TRAC) origintrail "ICO"The origin story of origintrail (TRAC) appears to show funding in the form of ICO, crunchbase.com data metrics.
Initial coin offerings give a chance for people to buy the token before it is available for public trade on markets. Less decentralized than if the token had made no sales before being pushed to market.
(OSMO) osmosis "ICO"The origin story of Osmosis appears to have an ICO as part of funding early on; crunchbase.com data metrics.
Initial coin offerings give a chance for people to buy the token before it is available for public trade on markets. Less decentralized than if the token had made no sales before being pushed to market.
DATA Technical Analysis in a Weekly TimeframeHello everyone, I’m Cryptorphic.
For the past seven years, I’ve been sharing insightful charts and analysis.
Follow me for:
~ Unbiased analyses on trending altcoins.
~ Identifying altcoins with 10x-50x potential.
~ Futures trade setups.
~ Daily updates on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
~ High time frame (HTF) market bottom and top calls.
~ Short-term market movements.
~ Charts supported by critical fundamentals.
Now, let’s dive into this chart analysis:
DATA is in a bearish trend and close to its all-time low of $0.02010. It will likely reach a new all-time low if the decline continues.
A rebound can be expected from the lower support trendline at $0.0157. The RSI is close to the oversold zone, indicating a further downtrend followed by a potential rebound toward the resistance trendline.
Key levels:
- All-time low: $0.02010.
- Lower support: $0.0157.
- Accumulation range: $0.0157-$0.02010.
- Mid-term Target: 2x-3x gain.
- Long-term Target: 10x-15x.
DYOR, NFA.
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#PEACE
BTC Outlook For The Weeks Ahead!!!Hello Everyone,
I have decided to post free market idea's every week or so for free, so everyone can see what i see backed by REAL data.
As you can see using Liquidation Data, Net Long/Short Data, Levels/Zones and some other analysis, we can see where the market is likely to move. Especially as we move into halving in a months time.
We can see that there's likely liquidation events that are in correlation to the historical levels, open orders and there's really declining volume in the market right now.
My targets are $66,000 and $69,100 for the next push up to liquidate shorts, before heading back down to the first level of $60,000-$62,200 where there's our first zone, their is a possibility for this to hold through halving, but i see the $48,800 - $53,200 zone settling pre-halving or just after. It makes sense on all accounts for ETF's as they're still having net in-flows for the market eg. BTC, which means once prices drop more will be bought up quite quickly.
For the week ahead i am looking at 2x moves, Long to that $66,000 zone, Short to that first $60,000 zone.
There's USA GDP Growth Rate, Cpre PCE and Personal Income and Spending this week aswell which means there's likely that volatility.
If you like these free idea's. Please support us, we love giving out free scripts and ideas and there's alot more to come.
Thanks
Mxwll Capital Team