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Will the Dollar Retrace After Retail Sales Data?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near a one-year high ahead of today’s Oct Retail Sales report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase, down from Sep's 0.4%. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no urgency to lower rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation. - According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a 0.25% rate cut next month have dropped to 62.4% from 82.5% a day ago. Technical theme: - The market tests the one-year high area around 107.00, confluence with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension. The index is stretched to the upside and above both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversion. - If DXY cannot remain above 106.35, the index may retrace further to retest 105.43. - On the contrary, if DXY extends its gain above 107.00, the index may retest 107.78, confluence with the 100% Fibonacci Extension. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
Will USDCHF reverse its course due to the new SNB's prospect?Macro theme: - Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.6% in Oct—the lowest in over three years—raising expectations that the SNB may opt for a more significant 0.5% rate cut in Dec to keep inflation within its 0-2% target range. - Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% but issued a slightly more hawkish statement. Technical theme: - USDCHF broke the descending channel after testing both EMAs, which just golden crossed each other, indicating a bullish momentum exists. - USDCHF may retest the broken descending trendline, confluence with the support level around 0.8693-0.8700 before resuming its upward movement to retest 0.8825. - On the contrary, a closing below 08626 may prompt a deeper correction to a nearby support around 0.8550. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Will the job data impair the US dollar gain?Macro theme: - The dollar remained steady despite short-term volatility, reflecting mixed economic data. US Sep Retail Inventories and Oct Consumer Confidence exceeded forecasts, while Sep Job Openings fell short. - Treasury yields reached multi-month highs early but declined following a strong seven-year auction. - With the US job report—the last before the FOMC meeting—approaching, storms and strikes could complicate interpreting the data, introducing further uncertainty around the dollar’s direction. Technical theme: - DXY is consolidating in a small range at the top and looks stretched. This is vulnerable to a potential mean reversion. The price is trading away from both EMAs. - If DXY extends its gain above the previous swing high at 104.60, the index may rise to 106.00 resistance. - On the contrary, if DXY closes below 104.00 support, the index may decline to retest 103.45 support. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
Will the market uncertainties impair the Dow?Macro theme: - The US30 has pulled back from record highs after a long rally, driven by rising Treasury yields and worries over high valuations. - Investors are watching earnings from companies like Boeing (BA) and Coca-Cola (KO), which could affect market sentiment. - With mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainties, short-term volatility is expected. Investors are balancing hopes for Fed rate cuts against concerns about economic growth and corporate earnings. Technical theme: - From the 4-hour chart, US30 broke its ascending trendline and retested EMA78 and the support level at 42720. - If US30 breaks below 42720, the index may change the structure sideways and reach nearby support around 42390. - On the contrary, if US30 remains above 42720, the index may consolidate within 42720-43300 until an apparent breakout occurs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DatTong
Will the all-time high in open interest support Bitcoin's rally?Macro theme: - Bitcoin jumped over 5% yesterday, following a positive trend across the crypto market. This has fuelled investor optimism for further gains in the coming months. Improved market sentiment, global stock rallies, and limited negative news from Middle East tensions have supported the rise of bitcoin. - Additionally, open interest in Bitcoin futures and perpetual surged by about 33,000 bitcoin last week, reaching an all-time high in USD terms, according to ETC Group. These factors strengthen the case for a continued rally through "Uptober." Technical theme: - BTCUSD is around its resistance at 68340, confluence with the descending trendline. The price is trading above both EMAs, indicating a solid bullish momentum. - If BTCUSD extends its rally above 68340, it may retest the nearby key resistance area 71400-73000. - Meanwhile, BTCUSD may retrace to test its support area at 62800-64400 before resuming its upward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Will the revealed labor data continue to support USDJPY?Macro theme: - The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead. - Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for further interest rate hikes as long as they do not destabilize the economy or markets, signalling confidence in the BoJ's approach. - The yen's outlook remains uncertain, influenced by the robust US labor market and ambiguity surrounding the BoJ's potential rate hikes. Technical theme: - USDJPY quickly recovered from the previous downtrend and closed above both EMAs, indicating a solid upward momentum. - If USDJPY extends its gain to close above 149.25, USDJPY may retest the resistance around 152.00. - On the contrary, a failure to close above 149.25 may prompt a temporary correction within 147.30-149.25 until an apparent breakout occurs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Will the escalation of the Middle East tension boost the dollar Macro theme: - The dollar strengthened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more hawkish tone last week, scaling back traders' expectations of another 0.50% rate cut at the next meeting. - The safe-haven demand following the possibility of Middle East escalation boosted the dollar. - The US Aug JOLTS data showed 329,000 more jobs, indicating a more robust labor market than anticipated. Technical theme: - From the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its Wedge pattern and closed above both EMAs with the golden cross. This indicates a potential recovery from its previous sideways-down trend. - If DXY breaks above 101.33, the index may strengthen to retest 101.80 resistance confluences with its descending trendline. - On the contrary, DXY may retest 100.90-101.00 before upward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
Will ongoing risk-on theme keep dampening the US dollar further?Macro theme: - On Tue, PBoC surprised investors with a new set of support measures that positively impact risky assets. This unexpected move has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the markets. -In contrast, the latest data from the US revealed a surprising decline in consumer confidence, which fell to 98.7 this month from a revised 105.6 in Aug. This marked the most significant drop since Aug 2021, sparking concerns about the health of the US economy. - As a result, market expectations for another 0.5% rate cut by the Fed at its Nov meeting have increased significantly. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a move jumped to 60.7% from 53% just a day earlier. This shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance has further weakened the US dollar as investors become more risk-tolerant. Technical theme: - On the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its support area of 100.55-100.60 and confirmed its downward movement. The price is trading below both EMAs by a fair distance, and there is a risk of a potential mean reversion if it tests a strong psychological level, such as 100.00, ahead. - If DXY extends its decline, it may retest and find psychological support around 100.00, confluence with its descending channel's lower bound.  - Meanwhile, DXY may recover to fill its gap and retest the broken area around 100.55-100.60 before resuming its downward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2
Will the rising tension in the Middle East boost Oil prices?Macro theme: - WTI hovered around 72.50 dollars per barrel on Thu, attempting to recover from previous losses as markets considered potential supply risks due to rising tensions in the Middle East. - The Fed also implemented a larger-than-expected 0.5% cut, which could stimulate economic activity and boost oil demand. - However, worries over China’s slowing economy and an expected supply increase from OPEC+ continue to pressure prices in the medium term. Technical theme: - From the 4-hour chart, USOIL is recovering and trading within its ascending channel. The price was retraced to retest both EMAs and bounced up to close above the key resistance at around 70.20.  - If the price can maintain above 70.20, it may continue to rise to 71.50. In the medium term, 73.00-73.80 is the potential area for USOIL to reach upon breaking 71.50, as it is the technical confluence area. - Meanwhile, the price may retest the broken level 70.20 before resuming its upward short-term movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
2
Will Today's CPI Report Ease Crypto Pressure Post-Debate?Macro theme: - Fears of a global recession are weighing on Bitcoin as a risky asset, though the US economy remains on track for steady growth. - Investor engagement with exchanges has decreased, with lower trading volumes reflecting reduced interest. - Bitcoin's recent gains were impacted following the first debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with odds favouring Harris. - All eyes are now on today's CPI data; if inflation falls as expected, a short squeeze could ease the recent price pressure. Technical theme: - From a 4-hour chart perspective, BTCUSD is hovering around EMA21, indicating that the sideways mode persists. EMA21 has not crossed up EMA78 yet to create a complete shift of the current sideways structure despite that BTCUSD broke its previous descending channel.  - If BTCUSD extends its gain beyond 58200, the price may continue to reach the psychology level 60000. - On the contrary, if BTCUSD breaks below 55660, the price may retest the 54600. 
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DatTong
Will the theme of weak demand and oversupply dampen oil prospectMacro theme: - Oil prices have declined since last week as investors expect an OPEC+ supply increase in Oct and a potential deal in Libya to resume production, possibly adding over 500,000 barrels per day. - Weak economic data from China, including Tue's ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighted the country's sluggish recovery, fuelling calls for more stimulus. - Concerns over China's weak demand and the prospect of increased supply are likely to keep oil prices under pressure in the short term. Technical theme: - USOIL tested EMAs' area confluence with 77.00 resistance before breaking below 71.50 support to maintain a bearish structure. - If USOIL maintains below the 71.50 level, the price may continue to decline to test 67.80 support. - On the contrary, if USOIL can close above 71.50, the price may retrace to retest its EMA21 along with the upper bound of its descending channel.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by DatTong
Will EU CPI support a quick rebound of DXY?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near its lowest in over a year but downside momentum is fading as markets have already priced in Sep easing. - A short-term rebound is possible if the EU CPI continues its downward trend this week. Technical theme: - DXY formed a small double-bottom pattern around 100.50 in the 4-hour chart and bounced up to retest its neckline, which is confluence with EMA21, indicating a potential trend shift. - If DXY closes above its neckline around 100.90, the index may retrace further to retest the previous swing high around 101.60. - Conversely, DXY may retest the bottoms again if it closes below 100.80.
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
Will the revision of the NFP help support the Gold price?Macro theme: - At the Jul meeting, most policymakers suggested easing policy in Sep would be appropriate if the data aligned with expectations. - Bets on more rate cuts grew after US Nonfarm Payrolls were revised down to 820K, raising doubts about the labor market's resilience to higher rates. - Investors are now waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday for guidance on the interest rate outlook, keeping markets stable for now. - Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive gold prices higher. Technical theme: - XAUUSD is still trading above the EMA21, indicating solid upward momentum persists. - If XAUUSD extends its gain, we can watch the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 2555. - On the contrary, if XAUUSD retraces before continuing, we must watch for 2480 and a lower level at 2431 before attempting any go-with-trend trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
Will the Dovish Tone from Shinichi Uchida Help Calm the Market?Macro theme: - The BoJ's 0.25% rate hike last Wednesday, the highest in 15 years, sparked a global stock rout. The surge in the low-yielding yen, widely used for acquiring high-yielding assets like stocks, led investors to unwind their positions in currency carry trades. - Global equity markets rebounded after BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank would not raise interest rates during financial instability. This assurance pushed the yen lower and boosted market sentiment. - It is crucial to remember that panic sell-offs are often short-lived. Historically, markets have rebounded as new funding sources emerged. Currently, significant funds are parked in banks as cash or treasury bills, poised to invest in high-quality assets affected by the global panic. Technical theme: - USTEC recovered from its key support around 17300 and bounced back to close near its resistance at 18440. The index broke its ascending channel and closed well below both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversal. - If USTEC closes above 18440, the index may retrace further to retest both EMAs and the broken ascending channel before resuming downward movement. On the contrary, if USTEC cannot close above 18440, the index may retest support around the 17000-17300 area.
U
by DatTong
Will BoJ support Yen with a rate hike today?Macro theme: - On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen. - The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates, equity purchases, and yield curve controls. Technical theme: - USDJPY shifted its structure downward after breaking its support at 151.90. The price is trading below both EMAs, which is about to have a dead-cross signal, indicating that bearish momentum persists. - If USDJPY cannot sustain above 151.90, it may extend its loss to 150.80 and 146.50. - On the contrary, if USDJPY finds support at 151.90, the price may perform range trading within 151.90-155.80 till an apparent breakout occurs.
by DatTong
Will a higher printing of PCE impair Gold bull?Macro theme: The market is anticipating that the Fed will cut rates three times this year following the release of lower CPI numbers, which have fueled optimism that inflation is under control. Investors expect rate cuts in Sep, Nov, and Dec. This outlook is quite optimistic, given that the overall state of the US economy may not be dire enough to necessitate such aggressive measures immediately. The market is also awaiting the PCE data at the end of this week to confirm the disinflation trend further. Technical theme: - From a technical perspective, after topping at 2483, Gold had a significant correction to close below both the ascending channel and key support area 2420-2440. The price established a trading range of 2384-2440 and waited for an apparent breakout. - If Gold closes above its resistance area around 2420-2440, it may retest its last swing high at 2483. - On the contrary, if Gold extends its loss to below 2384, it may decline to 2330-2350 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DatTong
6
Will the Disinflation Trend Reinforce DXY Downward Momentum?Macro theme: - The highlight of the past week was inflation data. US Jun headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY (vs. 3.1% expected, 3.3% previous), and core CPI was 3.3% YoY (vs. 3.4% expected and previous). - The core service component has been declining, and rental prices may continue to fall due to delayed contract renewals. With this inflation trend, markets expect the Fed to make its first rate cut in Sep and another this year. - The dollar is likely to weaken, depending on the pace of monetary easing by other countries. If all major economies cut rates simultaneously, currency pairs may remain stable. Technical: - From a technical perspective, DXY broke its ascending channel and closed below both EMAs, shifting to bearish momentum. The index is right above its key support at 104.00. - If DXY extends its decline below 104.00, it may aim for a nearby support area around 102.75-103.00. - On the contrary, if 104.00 can hold the index above for a while, DXY may correct up to 104.90 before resuming its downward movement.
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2
BTCUSD - Need 2 months to make TOPSIf you go back top of Dec 2017 and Jun 2019, you can notice that whenver BTC made the top, it always need 2 months for making Top. - The first month is always the last push (as far as possible). This is shown with a very long white candle with a noticible wick from above. - The second month is the confusing month after the last push and people have no ideas on what to do next. This is shown with a black candle can be medium size or small (size is not important here as it all shows that the Top is in place) So if we are on the last push of BTC for this month. This means the next month should be in Black candle. We will experience some confusions during next month but it ends up with a close < open. Then it's the reliable sign! If next month works like that, what we expect then? TIME: I expect 9-15 months of correction PRICE: I expect 50% correction at least (then BTC is about 30,000 or less) Altcoin: ??? Not a single Altcoin can survive with more than 50% value. Should we wait for the bottom? Yes, we should off the computer and wait for the bottom, then diversify 30% into BTC and 70% for Altcoins which are alive with around 10-20% values left. It's great time for shopping. Discuss below, thanks! :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DatTong
6