My Long Dax Idea 21-2-2025Took a long on GER40 After the dip that happened yesterday. The fundamentals are straightforward and DAX40 scores 6 on Edgefinder. The technical setups are looking good and indicating for a possible "bottom". Now we don't really know how far this price action will take us up since the European economy is not stable, yet.
Will keep an eye on it.
DAX Index
Has DAX formed a top?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 22635.
An Evening Doji Star formation has been posted at the high.
Posted a Double Top formation.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
We look to Sell at 22635 (stop at 22805)
Our profit targets will be 22205 and 22105
Resistance: 22552 / 22700 / 22852
Support: 22370 / 22280 / 22100
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DAX difficult to sustain price levelIn the recent period, the RSI has been at an extreme level three times (H4 chart).
None of the periods lasted longer than 7-8 days.
DAX showed a 4.5-5 percent increase in all three periods.
For me, this means that a strong correction may arrive within the day/days, but also within the week.
I don't think that a rise of more than 0.5 percent is expected, and after that we will most likely reach the peak (temporary or not?...we can't know, we are not fortune tellers:)
Setup:
Sell @ MKT
Sell @ until 22950
SL @ depend on your risk management
DAX pullback US Automobile tariffs “in the neighbourhood of 25%”Yesterday, Wednesday 19th Feb, Germany’s DAX equity index experienced the biggest decline of the major European indices, with automakers like Volkswagen (-2.78%) and BMW (-2.28%) underperforming.
Key Trading Level is at 21923
Support: 21770 followed by 21350 and 21060
Resistance: 22850 followed by 23000 and 23300
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX Bullish Continuation (Potential New ATH After Elections)DAX price seems to exhibit signs of overall bullish continuation as the price action may form another credible Higher Low on key Fibonacci levels.
There might be a possibility that DAX may break it's All Time High Price of 22938.
With the German elections coming up, (given a pandemic free situation of the world), it might be worth observing price the action further if 22938 breaks. A potential break may be indicative of another top OR a prominent new high.
Trade Plan :
Entry @ 22240
Stop Loss @ 20980
TP 0.9 - 1 @ 23374 - 23500
DAX RISKY LONG|
✅DAX(INDEX) is trading in an uptrend
Along the rising support line
Which makes me bullish biased
And the index is about to retest the rising support
Thus, a rebound and a move up is expected
With the target of retesting the level above at 22,614
LONG🚀
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2025-02-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Biggest bear bar since November and we are close to the elections. Market printed 23000 to the tick and now what? Tops usually get a retest, which can be a higher or lower high. Given today’s strength and the timing of this move, it’s tough to hold any bigger bias for the next two days.
current market cycle: bull trend (was trading range before and that was obviously wrong, sorry about that)
key levels: 22500 - 23200
bull case: As long as this big bull gap down to 22000 stays open, bulls are fine. If bears close it, market turns neutral for the time being. We have elections on Sunday and at this point it’s probably a bumpy ride for the next two days. 22500 should be huge support for the bulls or we flush to 22000. Xetra high was 22935 which is too close to 23000 to not expect it to get hit. Can bulls buy the lows at 22500 in hopes for an immediate reversal? I doubt it. Too strong and we will probably need some time around (sideways movement) 22500 first. The big bull trend line is somewhat 250 points lower and if we get there, I expect huge buying. My bias is still bullish since I expect bigger upside from here than downside.
Invalidation is below 21950.
bear case: Bears had a huge day and closed below 22500, which is really god for them. Their next target is the big bull trend line around 22250 and if they have enough momentum, they can overshoot down to 22000. 22000 is also the 50% retracement of this recent bull leg, the gap close from last Wednesday and the daily 20ema. Big magnets there but I am cautious after big up and then big down. What I absolutely can’t see for now is anything below 21950. If we get down to 22000, we will probably see big buying for a retest of the highs.
Invalidation is above 23200.
short term: Neutral and cautious. Big up, big down, big confusion. If bears get follow-through, they have big magnets below but I highly doubt the bull trend line will be broken.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Sell anywhere. Market did not touch the 10m 20ema for 500 points down.
DAX extends drop to -500 points from ATHThe DAX hit a record high earlier in the day. Fast forward a few hours, it is now down 500 points from that high. A potential rebound may be on the cards, given how strong the trend has been. But this goes to show the markets go down as well as up. What caused the sell-off? Well, firstly it was US President Donald Trump raising the prospect of tariffs of up to 25% on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. Then, concerns rose about the peace process talks over Ukraine without Kyiv’s involvement.
Trump has just posted THIS about Zelensky:
Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and “TRUMP,” will never be able to settle. The United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe, and Europe’s money is guaranteed, while the United States will get nothing back. Why didn’t Sleepy Joe Biden demand Equalization, in that this War is far more important to Europe than it is to us — We have a big, beautiful Ocean as separation. On top of this, Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is “MISSING.” He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden “like a fiddle.” A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left. In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only “TRUMP,” and the Trump Administration, can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the “gravy train” going. I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died – And so it continues...
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DAX GE40 Counter Trend Trade IdeaThe DAX is currently overextended, having reached all-time highs and trading at the top of its range. I'm anticipating a pullback on GE40 down to equilibrium for a potential counter-trend short. Once price retraces and establishes support, I'll be watching for a bullish market structure break as a signal to go long. This is not financial advice.
DAX pullback from ATH, support at 22563Key Trading Level is at 22563
Support: 270 followed by 22140 and 21923
Resistance: 23200 followed by 23300
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
2025-02-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Nothing bearish happening, so max bullishness. I scalp long until it stops working because are obviously not.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22500 - 23200
bull case: Bulls want 23100ish and keep going. Since no one is taking bigger profits and bears not doing anything, why would it stop? Scalp long. If we break outside the bull channel, which is likely in Globex session, wait for a pull-back to maybe 22700 and a good bull signal bar before longing again.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears not doing anything so let’s skip this. Daily close below 22500 changes that again.
Invalidation is above 23200.
short term: Can’t be anything but bullish. Goes only up. Scalp long until it stops. 23k next and likely 23100/23200 because xetra will likely overshoot somewhat.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the Globex low since we could not even touch the close of last week. Market printed 1 decent bear bar on the 15m tf and that is obviously not enough to exit any long.
“Rheinmetall Pushes DAX Higher“ but until When?. Trend Lines and Moving Averages:
• Moving Averages (MA): Check the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. DAX is trading above these averages and the 50-day is above the 200-day, that generally indicates an upward trend. A crossover (where the 50-day falls below the 200-day) might suggest a shift to a bearish trend. Stay tuned!!
• Trend Lines: Draw trend lines connecting recent highs & lows. An upward-sloping trend line suggests bullish momentum, Which, in reality triggers an alarm for shortterm buyers to start selling and waiting for a pull back to buy cheaper by waiting downward-sloping bearish pressure.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
• An RSI above 70 typically indicates that the asset might be overbought, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation.
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Last week my bearish take was wrong again and market moved closer to 23000 than below 22000. Until bears start closing gaps below and breaking bull trend lines, this is still max bullish, no matter the valuations. Still hard to buy the highs, given that we are trading either above or at the high of all of the ones you can draw. We are also far away from the daily 20ema and markets always come back to them. For now it’s useless to look for shorts because bears are not doing anything to have a decent trade setup for shorts. Bulls buy every dip and make money, so join them until it stops working. Trade small.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather but it doesn’t)
key levels: 21800 - 23000
bull case: Not much difference to last week, other that we are 700 points higher. Bulls buy it all because it continues to be profitable. Clear bull trend line around 21800 and if we get there, we can expect heavy buying to happen but I highly doubt we get there in the first place. Upper target is 23000. I expect a sideways correction much more than one to the downside. Longs closer to 22000 are better than ones closer to 22600, obviously.
Invalidation is below 21800.
bear case: A decent pull-back is overdue but that does not make it happen tomorrow. Bears need to start by closing the gap down to 22150 and testing the bull trend line. For now we can’t expect them to get much more than that. It’s likely that we only see the beginning of more profit taking, once we stop making daily new ath and market stops finding buyers buying new highs. Hasn’t happened yet, so don’t spend too much time looking to short this. Daily close below 22000 would be a huge surprise to me and then we can talk lower targets.
Invalidation is above 23000.
short term: Neutral until we have a daily close below 22000. Can only look for longs until we clearly stop making daily new ath and see bigger selling pressure.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: Burned the last shorts. Only long scalps for me as of now.
chart update: Just highlighted current bull trend lines.
DAX overbought rally to new ATH, The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25The Dax (DE40) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer term prevailing uptrend.
The key trading level is at 21703, which is 07th Feb swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21703 level could target the upside resistance at 22000 followed by 22096 and 22200 over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 21703 support and a daily close below that level could trigger a further retracement and a retest of 21600 support level followed by 21400 and 21240.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX (DE40) INTRADAY consolidation supported at 22220The DAX (DE40) intraday price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since the spike to intraday all time high at 22620 on 13th January 2025, the DAX price action is consolidating sideways, potentially indicating the overbought condition.
The key trading level is at the 22220 level, which is the 61.8% Fib retracement from 12 Feb ’25 swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 22220 level could target the upside resistance at 22480 followed by the 22620 and 22700 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 22220 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 22154 support level followed by 22000 and 21800.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX H4 | Bullish uptrend to continue?DAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 21,968.60 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 21,700.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 22,275.08 which is a level that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 61.8% projection and the 161.8% extension.
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2025-02-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I do think the profit taking is around the corner but for now that does not help. Longs are paying, so join the bulls or wait for bigger bears to appear. No more bullish targets from me. 20k was a bubble but 22k is beyond everything. -30% would bring us to 15% and that was the beginning of this bull trend in 2023-10. No matter how you draw the patterns, we are above all of them or at the very top. Looking for shorts does not help when the market goes only up. Join the momentum or wait for the profit taking to begin.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22000 - 22300
bull case: Bulls have measured move up from last weeks low and there is a bull wedge line going up to 22300ish. No idea if we can get there but until we have a daily close below 20k, bulls have all the momentum on their side to continue.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears need to break below many bull trend lines and ema before this can start selling bigger. If bears could prevent the current gap from 22118 to 22180 tomorrow, that would be a start. Retesting 22000 would be the next step but for now the bull trend line is intact and we can’t expect it to break all of a sudden. If bears somehow get below 22k, which I doubt, 21850 is the next bigger target.
Invalidation is above 22300.
short term: Neutral. Can’t hold the bearish bias when market is only going up. Can this be the top and we go down from here? Yeah sure but the same logic was true at 20k. Picking tops is a bad game. Need to have a daily close below 22k before we can look for lower targets. Right now bulls are still creating gaps below and that’s bullish af.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-11: I need to stop playing the top picking game. This trend is so beyond anything. Disgusting also. Big bull wedge on the daily chart has to break down and if we can close below 21900 again, I will look for lower targets. I still think this is a blow-off top and will be the exhaustive end of the trend but that believe does not help when the market is only going up. 19600 is my minimum bear target for this year.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the open and holding because the low 21969 held, which was only couple of points below the Globex low.
DAX 40 Crosses the 22,000 Mark for the First TimeThe German index increased just over 3% in the past five sessions, driven by the strong performance of companies such as SAP, Siemens, and Deutsche Bank , which have posted gains exceeding 3% during this period. Notably, these companies represent more than 20% of the weight in DAX 40, making their positive performance a key factor in sustaining the bullish pressure that has now pushed the index to new all-time highs.
Strong Uptrend
The DAX 40 is currently in a strong uptrend, which has accelerated since November 2024. The price has now reached the 22,000-point zone , a potentially significant resistance level. However, for the buying momentum to remain intact in the short term, it will be crucial for bullish positions to hold above this level.
Potential Correction
At the moment, the RSI line continues to oscillate above the 70 level , signaling overbought conditions. Additionally, while the DAX price has been making higher highs, the RSI has been making lower highs, forming a bearish divergence. These two signals suggest that the recent buying activity may have created an imbalance in the market, which could open the door to short-term downward corrections.
Key Levels to Watch:
22,000 points – A new critical resistance zone, aligning with the latest all-time high reached by the DAX 40. If buying activity remains strong above this level, it could help sustain the bullish bias and pave the way for further upward movement in the coming sessions.
21,300 points – A nearby support level, corresponding to a neutral zone from previous sessions, and also aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This area could serve as a potential correction zone, and if price action falls below this barrier, it may lead to a sideways phase in the medium term.
20,300 points – A distant support level, aligning with the 50- and 100-period moving averages. If the price approaches this level, it could revive bearish sentiment and put the current uptrend at risk.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
DAX traders are not bothered about steel and aluminum tariffs It seems that MARKETSCOM:DE30 traders today don't care much about the announcement of US tariffs on steel and aluminum. In fact, the German index continues to show resilience and keeps forming new highs. But how can this last for?
XETR:DAX
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#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I still think we will top out around 22000 but I also think we won’t go down for meaningful points before we have printed that price. We now have made 7 consecutive green weeks and the odds of a pull-back are far better than another strong move beyond 22000. I will decide on Monday on swing shorts for at least 21k and will continue to scale in and out of shorts for this.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather)
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: Bulls want to print 22000 and then continue. As long as bears are not stepping in, bulls will continue because it has been profitable for 3 months straight. My base case for the bulls has not changed since last Sunday. We are at the top or have broken above multiple bullish patterns and I think the upside will probably be very limited. Bulls know that buying new highs in hopes of higher ones is unsustainable and we are close to the point where the bull wedge breaks and bulls will wait for pull-backs to buy.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears have a red bar on Friday, wooo ducking hooo. The bull wedge looks like it can break on Monday but bears know that 22k is the price to print, so I think they will be cautious. Only a big gap down on futures open and then follow-through below 21500 could change that. Bears can’t expect either the bull trend line nor the daily 20ema to just break on the next touch. They still have nothing until we see much bigger selling pressure. Anything below 21500 next week, would be a huge surprise for the bears.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: Neutral until we break below 21700. Below 21700 we will likely close the gap down to 21585 and test the lower wedge bull line.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full ducking bear mode.
current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts with stop 22300.
chart update: Adjusted bull wedge and bear targets.
DAX: Channel Up, Bullish Cross targeting 22,500DAX turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.428, MACD = 367.400, ADX = 47.746) which is signalling a strong uptrend ahead, especially with the 4H RSI rising on a Bullish Cross. The last time the Channel Up pattern traded on those numbers it was on January 15th, again after a 4H MACD Bullish Cross and a bottom bounce. That time it increased by +7.50%. That is again our medium term target (TP = 22,500).
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