2025-03-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Another ath but two rejections for 300+ points. I give bulls one more try at this and if we pull back below 23300 again, this likely sells off into the weekend. Past 3 Friday’s we chopped into the weekend after a gap down. Right now is not the time to have bigger positions over the weekend when orange face is at work.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls want 24k now. They are high enough that they could get there but the upper bull trend line is still resistance and every time we touched it in the past days, we sold off for couple hundred points. Bulls know that and since we closed high, I doubt many want to buy above 23200 and hold those over the weekend. Weekly close above 23000 would be very good for the bulls though.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: Bears need the week to close below 23k, no ifs or buts. A head & shoulders breakdown would be my preferred structure tomorrow, with a measured move down could get us to 22500 but we would need a news bomb I guess. Technically chop between 23000 - 23500 is most likely after a wild week. Weekly close couple ticks below 23k. Anything below 22900 tomorrow is a bear surprise and could go much lower then. Again, my bullish targets were all met with 23k and this channel can’t go on forever but until it’s broken, bulls are in control.
Invalidation is above 23600.
short term: Neutral around 23200/300. Bearish only below 22900 or around 23500. I’d like to see a lower high tomorrow and then some really big bear bars and a bear surprise. More likely is chop though. Next days we could get some news that the current government might not be able to get enough votes to get the gigantic special budget approved. If so, could trigger a mini-crash. This market is up here on the hopes and dreams of German stimulus. Not saying it won’t happen but front-running goes horribly wrong sometimes.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying from 23130 was insanely strong on US open but so was the rejection. Both trades were good if you are comfortable with reversing positions. You could have bought at previous support and sold at previous resistance. So both were amazing trades and not the hardest to take.
DAX Index
DAX hits fresh record on stimulus plansThe German DAX index has just hit a fresh all-time high.
The latest gains come as a global bond sell-off extended its run, driven by Germany’s ambitious spending plans, which are poised to reshape the eurozone’s economic outlook and has already had a sizeable impact on regional stocks. Today, the focus was also on the rate decision from the European Central Bank. The ECB cut rates by 25bps as expected and President Lagarde said the next rate decision in April is defendant on data.
The market's attention shifts to US labour market data as we head to the business end of the week.
From a technical view point, the strong rally means dip-buyers continue to remain in control of price action. For that reason, there is no point in trying to pick the top. Concentrate on support levels until we see a clear reversal pattern.
Short-term support now comes in around 23,311, marking the high from Monday, followed by 23,229, marking the high from Wednesday. Below these levels, 22,937 is the next key support to watch for a potential bounce, before the trend line comes into focus a bit lower down.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DAX 40 Index Technical AnalysisDAX 40 Index Technical Analysis
Market Profile Insights
Value Area Analysis
Trading ABOVE yesterday's value area high
Seeking extension from Monday's Point of Control (POC)
Anticipating potential reaction zones at Monday's High Volume Nodes (HVNs)
Current price positioning suggests bullish market sentiment
Trade Parameters
Entry Point: 22,833.71
Target Price: 23,356.52
Stop Loss: 22,572.31
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2
Technical Narrative
Price breaking through previous resistance levels
Showing strength by trading above key market profile structures
Volume profile indicates institutional accumulation
Momentum suggesting potential trend continuation
Entry Confirmation Criteria
Multiple timeframe alignment
Strong volume profile
Market profile structural support
Momentum indicator confirmation
Risk Management Considerations
Monitor reactions at previous HVNs
Use market profile levels for dynamic stop management
Be prepared for potential consolidation zones
Conclusion
High-probability bullish setup with robust market profile confirmation. Disciplined, structure-based approach recommended.
DAX H1 | Potential bullish bounceThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 23,236.99 which is a pullback support
Stop loss is at 23,075.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 23,593.28 which is a resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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2025-03-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very strong selling followed by very strong buying but bears defended where they had to. Another one for the 50% retracement if you go from ath down to 22348, the 50% is around 22849 and market stopped the bounce pretty much there. Now we have a big gap up from 22357 up to 22707 but I doubt this will stay open. My bias is bearish with stop 23091 but for now we can’t expect market to drop below 22300 since the buying down there was so strong.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22000 - 23351
bull case: Bulls reversed 78.6% of the selling almost to the tick. I let you figure out which glorified pattern that is. I do not care about them nearly as much as others. I only care about the 50% and then maybe 30% or 60% to determine how strong the pullback is. Bulls showed strength by rallying for 500+ points and that naturally makes me think the downside is limited for now. Problem for them is, the rejection from 22351 on Monday was so strong that they likely won’t buy high again and wait for pullbacks. Since bears also showed strength, we will likely continue sideways. Bulls need something above 23091 to retest 23355 or go higher.
Invalidation is below 22300.
bear case: Bears had an amazing small-pullback-bear-trend but bulls bought heavily the lows on the news that the EU will do a new fund and Germany will also likely do new debt to finance defense and infrastructure stuff. Does it matter? Not really. Clear descending triangle for us to trade until we make higher highs or lower lows. We are above the 50% of it and I favor the bears to retest at least 22400 tomorrow. So shorts close to 22800 are reasonable. Bears also have going for them, that lately not-bad news got bought but then reversed to the downside, which I believe suits the sell-the-rip market we could be in. US indexes will likely have more downside over the next weeks, since this whole move down could be seen as a bigger W1 on the weekly chart for sp500 and nasdaq. Dax will follow them, just takes a bit more time I guess. Plan for this week is still to hit 22000 and then some strong moves down to 21000 over the next 1-2 weeks.
Invalidation is above 23091.
short term: Neutral around 22700. Bearish above 22800 and bullish below 22450. Strong moves to both sides will likely result in sideways movement and not a strong breakout to either side. My thesis is still that Monday was a higher high major trend reversal and we could have seen the highs.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Small pullback bear trend from EU open 22955 down to 22357. It was so strong, you had to be short. 5m 20ema held like a champ. 22350 was previous support and once market stopped making new lows, bears needed to reduce risk and take profits. Could you have anticipated that the bounce would be good for 500+ points? Hell no. If you took a long, good for you. To make a living from trading you don’t have to be perfect or amazing, you just have to be good and that meant, taking reasonable profits on shorts and not watching them disappear on the bounce.
Falscher Ausbruch auf DAXThe German Stock Index XETR:DAX made a new All Time High yesterday only to close back inside the high's recent price action. This sets up a clear Spike with today's close back inside.
Many signs in the US stock market are pointing to the market turning over for at least a bearish correction. I'll be watching the XETR:DAX for a bearish play of this Spike: possibly back down to the 50% of the rally since August 2024.
2025-03-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 791 points from low to high today. The selling stopped exactly at the 50% retracement and this is the line in the sand for my outlook. We have two very big patterns now possible. We either melt much higher to 23800+ or we do a proper correction like the US markets but we very likely won’t continue sideways around 23000.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22500 - 24000
bull case: Bulls are likely in do or die mode. They melted higher but if they can’t stay above the important breakout price 23000, this could become a bull trap/higher high - major trend reversal and we go down from here. If we stay above and correct sideways some around 23000, we will likely retest 23350 tomorrow and could get a second leg up to 23800+. The bull channel is valid until broken, so respect it.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: Bears need to break below the bull channel around 22300. Everything else is just neutral, since we are in such a strong bull trend. They have to stop new highs or we continue up. What are the odds that today was a climactic bull trap at the end of this bull trend? I don’t know right now but I have given my invalidation prices, so mark them and look what the market does when we get there. My wave thesis was already done at the previous 23k but we can obviously have another break above and another rally higher. Market is beyond overvalued but who cares if it’s only going up. I start favoring the bears if we can get below 22900 because then the odds that the highs are in become much bigger.
Invalidation is above 23400.
short term: Neutral around 23k. Bearish below 22900 for more downside to potentially 22300 again but this is much lower probability. Bulls are favored to retest 23350 or get another leg higher.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long below 22600. Market found no acceptance there and the gap to Friday’s close stayed open. Congratulations if you took it and banked 600+ points.
Most overbought in 10 years !? I've used 3 forms of technical analysis to make a case for a major top forming in the European markets. If this turns around, it could lead to a 10% selloff very quickly and if this transforms into a bear market then 20% drop is totally on the cards. Nothing goes up forever.
DAX (DE40) The Week Ahead 03rd March ’25Market Sentiment:
The DAX index maintains a bullish outlook, supported by the long-term uptrend. However, recent sideways consolidation near the rising support trendline suggests a potential corrective pullback before the next move.
Bullish Scenario:
Key Support: 22234 (previous consolidation range, 20-day moving average, and rising trendline).
A bounce from 22234 would reinforce the uptrend and could drive price action higher.
Upside Targets:
22700 (initial resistance)
22900 (next resistance level)
23100 (long-term target)
A successful hold above 22234 would signal continued bullish momentum, strengthening the case for further gains.
Bearish Scenario:
A break below 22234, confirmed by a daily close, would weaken the bullish structure.
This could lead to a deeper retracement, targeting:
21780 (next key support)
21254, if selling pressure intensifies
A sustained move below 22234 would invalidate the bullish outlook, increasing the probability of a broader correction.
Market Outlook:
The 22234 remains the key pivot level—holding above this zone keeps the bullish bias intact, while a breakdown could indicate extended downside risk. Traders should monitor price action and volume around this level for confirmation of the next trend direction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX H4 | Falling to swing-low supportDAX (GER30) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 22,176.48 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 21,897.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 22,811.89 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
2025-02-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000.
Important this day was. Bulls followed-through as expected but came short of 22900 and a new ath above 23000. Again we have clear invalidation prices for both sides. Above 22750 bulls could try again and continue inside the current bull channel. Below 22550 the bull channel is broken and 22500 has to hold or we flush to 22400. Below 400 is 22k and I do think there is a decent chance we could close February below 22000. Be prepared for some EU trade war news and this could become a risk-off event tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22100 - 23000
bull case: Was this a lower high major trend reversal? Bulls keep the bull channel alive if they stay above 22550ish. If they do, they remain in control and we could try another run at 22900 or a new ath. Biggest problem for them sits in the White House and we can expect some trade war related news tomorrow, which could be a big trigger for another sell-off.
Invalidation is below 22550.
bear case: Bears have a good setup to crash this down. Double tops on multiple time frames and a news event that could be a huge risk-off event. I have given invalidation prices for both sides, set up notifications and trade accordingly.
Invalidation is above 22750.
short term: Neutral until prices break above or below my given targets. I dream of a February close below 22000.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long above 22600 as given yesterday. Was good for 280 points.
Will DAX go for another all-time high?It seems that geopolitics are the key driving force of the MARKETSCOM:DE30 bulls. The current news on a possible end of the war in Ukraine is helping boost trader morale. Let's dig in!
XETR:DAX
What are your thoughts on this?
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2025-02-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22100 - 23000
bull case: Bulls give up above 22600 and we sold off on every touch since Thursday. If bulls want to retest 23000, they need to break strongly above 22600 and trap bears who are selling that price for 4 days now. The daily chart still looks bullish enough that bulls remain in control. We are above the daily ema, above the bull trend line and we still have a bullish gap from 22000 - 22300. Plan for tomorrow is to either get a strong breakout above 22600 to buy or look for longs around 22400 and continue with the higher lows.
Invalidation is below 22300.
bear case: Bears need lower lows again or bulls will become more aggressive for a ath retest. If 22600 continues as resistance we will likely go down to 22400 and there we will likely get a decision tomorrow. If we print higher lows again, the next touch of 22600 could get the breakout. Below 22400 the bull trend line could have become weak enough that we might do lower lows again and test down to 22200 or 22170 (last weeks low). Bearish plan is to wait and see if 22600 is still resistance and join the bears down to 22400 but keep a tight stop. I won’t bet on lower lows.
Invalidation is above 22650.
short term: Neutral. Clear plan given, mark the prices and set up alarms.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 22600 was the trade that worked since Thursday. Buying the EU open was also decent since 22300 has been support since Globex open on Monday.
DAX INTRADAY coiling, retest of 61.8% FibThe DAX (DE40) equity index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the breakout level, previous resistance, and now a new support zone.
The key trading level is at 21780 level, the previous consolidation price range and also the 61.8% Fib retracement zone from the 03rd Feb ’25 lows to the 19th Feb high. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21780 level could target the upside resistance at 22400 followed by the 22705 and 22900 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 21780 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 21585 support level followed by 21060.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: How fitting that the week where I gave up on bearish targets, that we start to see big selling again. Bears certainly surprised with the intensity all of a sudden but it’s the nature of markets that highs get retested. After such a climactic move up, it is not wise to get uber bearish on the first sign of bear strength. Market has moved down very quickly now to important magnets and until they are clearly broken, I will not bet on a breakout below.
I stop with the xetra update because I always questioned the decision to do xetra analysis as well. Is this really worth it because of the gaps or are futures just as good? What shattered my case was the futures 23000 touch and strong sell-off. You can not convince me that xetra is more important to most algo’s after this. No more xetra, only futures. If you do not trade futures, calculate the difference between eurex dax futures and your symbol and you are good. It’s not that hard and if it is, hit me up and I explain it to you.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 23000
bull case: Bulls see this is a pull-back in a bull trend, down to obvious support. The last time we dipped to the daily 20ema, we rallied 1800 points afterwards. It’s hard to imagine this going to 24000 but I think it’s more likely than continuous selling through the bull trend line and daily ema and 22000. Too much support and important magnets to not expect a bounce. Targets for the bulls are 22400 and then 22600 which is the 50% of the bear leg and then probably already 23000 again. It’s likely that the market has to move sideways first before we can go higher. Right now we are still in a strong sell-off where the market is not touching the 4h ema on the pull-backs.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears are in a spike and channel bear trend and until bulls can make higher highs above 22500 again, bears are in full control. Problem for their case is, who is willing to sell at multiple support in hopes of further downside after such a big rally? We will likely get our answer early on Monday. I think bears are absolutely not favored here and will give up quickly if bulls start the week strong. What I do think is that any upside will probably be limited to around 23000. For now I need to see how Globex opens and if we bottom out around 22200 or need to get to 22000 before we can bounce. Below 21900 I think the odds favor a flush down another 800-1000 points.
Invalidation is above 23000.
short term: Neutral but if bulls show strength, bullish for retest 23000. Problem is that we could go down to 22000 as well and right now I don’t want to risk 300-400 points on longs. Below 21900 this could drop much much lower though.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted current bull channel.
DAX difficult to sustain price levelIn the recent period, the RSI has been at an extreme level three times (H4 chart).
None of the periods lasted longer than 7-8 days.
DAX showed a 4.5-5 percent increase in all three periods.
For me, this means that a strong correction may arrive within the day/days, but also within the week.
I don't think that a rise of more than 0.5 percent is expected, and after that we will most likely reach the peak (temporary or not?...we can't know, we are not fortune tellers:)
Setup:
Sell @ MKT
Sell @ until 22950
SL @ depend on your risk management
My Long Dax Idea 21-2-2025Took a long on GER40 After the dip that happened yesterday. The fundamentals are straightforward and DAX40 scores 6 on Edgefinder. The technical setups are looking good and indicating for a possible "bottom". Now we don't really know how far this price action will take us up since the European economy is not stable, yet.
Will keep an eye on it.
Has DAX formed a top?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 22635.
An Evening Doji Star formation has been posted at the high.
Posted a Double Top formation.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
We look to Sell at 22635 (stop at 22805)
Our profit targets will be 22205 and 22105
Resistance: 22552 / 22700 / 22852
Support: 22370 / 22280 / 22100
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DAX pullback US Automobile tariffs “in the neighbourhood of 25%”Yesterday, Wednesday 19th Feb, Germany’s DAX equity index experienced the biggest decline of the major European indices, with automakers like Volkswagen (-2.78%) and BMW (-2.28%) underperforming.
Key Trading Level is at 21923
Support: 21770 followed by 21350 and 21060
Resistance: 22850 followed by 23000 and 23300
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.