DAX: Channel Down bottom buy to 15,500.DAX touched the bottom of the Channel Down today and immediately reacted positively. The 1D timeframe is bearish technically (RSI = 33.050, MACD = -53.850, ADX = 44.059) but the RSI double bottomed inside a Zone same way it did on the August 18th LL. We are long, aiming at a +3.73% rise (same as August) as so far the bearish legs at least have been symmetrical. We may see a 1D MA50 test there (TP = 15,500).
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DAX Index
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 04/10/2023As expected we are seeing further downside as a wave ((v)). There are some signs in favor of a reversal which means that the corrective WXY structure down can be finished. However, at this moment, we are still bearish in the daily and the weekly timeframe.
03102023 - #DAXI was bearish DAX yesterday () despite the opening gap up and it played out well; market played out almost as per the path, coming down to bottom of PZ, rallied up to above double resistance before a sell down. Probably, what is somewhat surprising is that, despite the up move in SPX (led by NDX, DJIA was weak) DAX was much weak too.
Overall, I would say that DAX is weak. And if we are looking at price action, what happened is, price sold off rather deeply, hit the bottom of the Bollinger Band for days, then found support, rallied for 1-2 days, found sellers and sold back down, with space now for further down side.
But again, I would say that the speed of the sell down is a bit too steep; yesterday's down move brought price directly back to the bottom of the Bollinger Band again, in which, having another bounce is not surprising. And also, one thing to note is, sellers have yet been able to bring DAX below last week's low though.
For today, if following the trend, I would say to continue to look for downside with bearish price action and the zones above as resistance. 15282 should be a good max level to look for short for a move to 14986 strong support and 14900. If 14900 trades, will be glad to look for longs for a good bounce.
DAX TRADING OPPORTUNITY Following the Downtrend on the DAX, price made a lower high and lower low creating a new Market Structure. Digging into the volume-candle analysis the upward move from Wednesday to Friday last week, created under light volume and small range candles. Showing the potential downtrend continuation.
Price rejection on Friday below the 50% fib reveals the strength of the bears in the DAX.
considering the LHLL and the RSI below 50, both indicated bearishness. On this time frame.
If price continues moving lower there is a key level of Support S1 found around 15143 and if price continues lower the next Key Support found at S2 around 15022. Pay attention to this , it is just above the round number 15000.
In case the price continues moving upwards, there is a strong Resistance found at R2 that is in between the 50% and 61.8% fib level and this can cause the market to move lower
Happy Trading guys
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 02/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)For traders (lower timeframe)
The higher degree correction in the DAX can be finished as we took out the wave (W) low. However, the main expectation is that we see some further downside as a wave ((v)).
For investors (higher timeframe):
In the higher timeframe, the higher level wave ((1)) is probably finished. There is also an alternative scenario where we can make one more high to finish wave ((1)). This wave ((1)) should be followed by a wave ((2)) to the downside which is an interesting buying opportunity for investors.
DAX Rejection on the MA50 (4h).DAX remains inside a Channel Down pattern. The price just got rejected on the MA50 (4h).
The pattern so far matches exactly the first bearish sequence of the pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price and keep as long as the price trades under it.
Targets:
1. 14950 (-3.75%, symmetry with August).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) is on the exact same level as the August 11th rejection on the MA50 (4h).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX Bottom rebound buy opportunity to 15650.DAX (DE40) has made a short-term bottom near the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down after hitting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a short-term buy signal to at least 15650, which is on the Channel's top and represents a symmetrical +3.66% rise similar to the previous Lower High leg. If it doesn't get rejected, this is where the Fibonacci retracement levels come forward. The 0.382 Fib is almost exactly on our target.
A break above, which would also be a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targets Resistance 1 (15995), which is exactly on the 0.618 Fib. Only a candle closing above that Resistance justifies a bullish reversal for the long-term.
If the 1D MA50 doesn't break, we expect the Channel Down to look for a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50, which can technically deliver a downward extension towards the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) on the 6-month Support Zone. If that scenario prevails, we will need to see a clear indication that this will be the same High Demand Zone as during March 15 - 24, when all attempts to break it reversed emphatically as most candles closed above it leaving long wicks inside the Zone.
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GER40 lack of interest is a concern for the bulls.GER40 - 24h expiry
The lack of interest is a concern for bulls.
Previous support at 15600 now becomes resistance.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
Current prices have reacted from a low of 15327, however, we expect further losses to follow.
We look to Sell at 15578 (stop at 15678)
Our profit targets will be 15328 and 15268
Resistance: 15440 / 15500 / 15600
Support: 15327 / 15300 / 15200
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 26/09/2023The higher degree correction in the DAX can be finished as we took out the wave (W) low. However, the main expectation is that we see some further downside. This downside should be preceded by an upward move as we are close to finishing an ABC structure.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 25/09/2023The higher degree correction in the DAX can be finished as we took out the wave (W) low. However, the main expectation is that we see some further downside. This downside should be preceded by an upward move as we probably finished a WXY structure (in red) or we are close to finishing an ABC structure (in green).
DAX H4 | Rising into pullback resistanceThe DAX index (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 15565.59 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 15654.35 which is an overlap resistance that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 15454.00 which is a recent swing-low support level.
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DAX Under the 1day MA200 after 11 months!DAX / DE40 crossed today under the 1day MA200 for the first time since November 10th 2022.
In the meantime it also broke under the wide Channel Up pattern that was holding since the December 20th 2022 Low.
This is a critical bearish break out signal and closing a 1day candle under the MA200, confirms the extension to a new Low.
Support A is at 15455 (so far a Double Bottom), so it is better to wait for a sell until this level breaks.
If it does, sell the first minor bounce and target 15050 (almost -6% from the recent top).
Important note: The 1day MACD is also under a Sell Cross.
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DAX Bullish as long as the 1D MA200 holds.DAX (DE40) has been neutral on the 1D time-frame, trading sideways within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 03. We can see two clear Support and Resistance Zones. Today the price is approaching once more the 1D MA200, following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, so it is a buy opportunity again. Target the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 16000.
Apart from that, the Fibonacci retracement levels since the July 31 High, make solid Supports and Resistances, with the 0.5 Fib currently being one.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 21/09/2023The primary scenario (in green) is now calling for a triangle as a wave (X). We are still missing the E leg before we break down as a wave (Y). The secondary scenario (in red) assumes that wave (X) is in and that we can expect more downside as a wave (Y).
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 20/09/2023The primary scenario (in green) is now calling for a triangle as a wave (X). We are still missing the E leg before we break down as a wave (Y). The secondary scenario (in red) assumes that wave (X) is in and that we can expect more downside as a wave (Y).
DAX - Watch this mark!Hi Traders,
for the German Index DAX we clearly see a very important zone: 15.450
There are 2 possible Scenarios.
Scenario 1: He market accepts the support zone and we see a reversal. Then we can trade a pullback to 16.000.
Scenario 2: The Support will break. Then we expect sharp movement to 15.000 - following a pullback to the former support (which will then become resistance).
Next bigger support is for this case at 14.500
Right now the decision is open and we should also cleary watch the FED interest rate decision and conference tomorrow as German market often follows US indicies.
Wish you all great trades!
Team tegasFX