Dax40 Long turned down, but first support can be nearDax has been trading higher since October 2022 but five waves up from that low suggested that bulls are done for now and that correction is in play. In fact, we have seen a nice reversal down recently, through the trendline support on the 4h chart so the corrective phase is here, but with three waves down from the top, we may start observing some of the support for wave (C). An interesting level for a new price stabilization can be at 15300-15400 area.
DAX Index
DAX: Short term buy opportunity.DAX is rebounding after a -4.60% decline that turned the 1D timeframe bearish (RSI = 42.197, MACD = -69.700, ADX = 37.228). Even though that decline hit the bottom of the long term Channel Up, we focus more on the short term where after similar declines in the past two months (both -4.30%), the price rebounded to at leastthe 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Consequently we go short and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 15,930) which can connect with the 4H MA200 as well.
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DAX hit the bottom of the long term Channel Up. Buy.DAX hit on Friday the bottom of the 8month Channel Up, just under Support (1), which was the low of April 5th.
That is a long term buy opportunity and the price is treating it as such since it's already on two straight bullish candles.
The previous Higher Lows was also priced within the MA100 (1d) and the bottom of the Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses under the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 16430 (Resistance 1).
2. 15150 (MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit the Falling Support which made the Channel Up bottoms of December 16th and March 13th. However the price dropped some more after the RSI hit that price. Hence it is not unrealistic to expect 15150 and a MA200 (1d) test for the next long term buy.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GER30, H4 | Potential bearish reversalWe're seeing price test a key overlap resistance at 15702 which also happens to line up with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A reversal from this breakout level could see prices drop all the way down to test our recent swing low at 15508 again.
We're seeing price rise towards a major overlap resistance at 0.8552 which also coincides with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a shorter term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
It's worth noting that there's a fair bit of bearish momentum too wish the descending resistant line and the bearish ichimoku cloud pushing prices down.
A drop from here could see pries drop to 0.8524.
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DAX: Weak Market & Bearish Continuation
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell DAX.
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Trading week recap for NASDAQ, DOW, DAX & FTSE (09/07/2023)Let's look back at the past trading week and learn from it. What went well? What could be better?
This is an experiment. Educational content to become a good waver. If you like this video, please let me know by commenting. Any suggestions? Please let me know.
Market Analysis July 9Welcome to the latest market analysis video dedicated to:
DAX's bearish structure and sell on rise trade.
German and US bond yield curves signal de-inversions ahead, calls for caution for those "long risk."
Did Friday's nonfarm payrolls report signal stagflation ahead?
Key data to watch out for: US CPI and China's PPI.
Technical set up in the dollar index.
Hope you enjoy, please leave comments. Thanks
DAX Lower Low to come after this quick rebound. Sell.DAX is recovering today from yesterday's brutal break down but this should be a short lived reaction.
The 1day RSI made a Double Bounce on a Falling Support, much like the one on March 13th.
On that price action, after a short lived rebound that got rejected on the 1day MA50 and the 0.5 Fibonacci, the price resumed the downtrend and bottomed on the 1.5 Fibonacci level.
Take advantage of this quick rebound for a better sell entry and target 15100, which happens to be also at the bottom of the long term Channel Up and the 1day MA200 (which is intact since November 10th).
Previous chart:
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (07/07/2023)The pullback in the higher timeframe might have started. We discuss two scenarios that can play out. A shallow pullback as a wave (4) or the start of a deeper pullback as a wave (2). Investors better wait for more downside before buying again. Traders should wait for more data and analyze the lower timeframe.
Will DAX continue to selloff?GER40 - 24h expiry
The bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart is negative for sentiment.
Short term bias has turned negative.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Previous support at 15750 now becomes resistance.
We look to Sell at 15749 (stop at 15849)
Our profit targets will be 15501 and 15451
Resistance: 15575 / 15750 / 15850
Support: 15492 / 15400 / 15300
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 06/07/2023We discuss two scenarios that could play out today. Traders should be long already and protect their trade. Today there might be an opportunity to enter a new long trade. However, traders should be careful as a pullback is expected in the higher timeframe. This means every high can be your last high.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 05/07/2023We discuss two scenarios that could play out today. Traders should be long already and protect their trade. Today there might be an opportunity to enter a new long trade. However, traders should be careful as a pullback is expected in the higher timeframe. This means every high can be your last high.
DAX: Entered a short term accumulation phase ahead of the next rDAX hit the 4H MA200 again after a much needed technical pull back that helped at correcting last week's overbought technicals on the 4H time frame (RSI = 48.684, MACD = 21.500, ADX = 34.751). This is a similar structure as early June, when the 4H MA200 (and 0.382 Fibonacci) offered support to a 4 day accumulation phase before the bullish leg made a Higher High on the Channel Up pattern.
We are entering a new buy on the current market price, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 16,500).
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DAX40 Crash - Short Signal - Swing TradingDAX40 is about to crash. A BIG short trade is pending its turn.
Germany40 Index (GER40, GRXEUR, GER30) is trapped in a Bearish stance.
Fundamentally, many things are against a Bull-Market at these times, but I mentioned that in my VIX spike idea.
From a Technical Analysis standpoint, well, the picture is much clearer.
Technicals:
* A-B-C Elliott Wave Sequence
* Running Flat Pattern
* Bearish Harmonic: Cypher Pattern
* Fractal Pattern: May-Dec '18 Sequence
* Reversed Bearish Divergence
* Bearish Divergence
* Descending Channel
* 61.8% Fibonacci Retracements of Primary A (red)
* 88.6% Fibonacci Retracements of Intermediate (B) (white)
* 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Intermediates (A) & (B) (white)
Expected Outcome:
* Powerful Bearish Impulse in Primary C (red).
Trading Signal:
* Entry @ 14550
* SL @ 15800
* TP1 @ 11200
* TP2 @ 9750
* TP1 @ 9000
Safety Measures:
* When in the green, moving stop-loss at break-even.