DAX: Inverse Head and Shoulders aiming for a new All Time High.DAX is trading around the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 with technicals naturally neutral (RSI = 52.802, MACD = 10.300, ADX = 21.396) as on any consolidation. The pattern that was completed (inside the long term Channel Up) is an Inverse Head and Shoulders. Technically such formations target the 2.0 Fibonacci. Our plan is to traget the R1 initially (TP1 = 16,335) and then buy any pull back given and aim at Fibonacci 2.0 (TP2 = 16,600).
It is important to mention that the 4H RSI has been trading inside a Channel Up during the formation of the Inverse Head and Shoulders, giving an early bullish signal.
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DAX Index
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 08/06/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we might see some more upside in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, depending on what the market gives us, we see an entry for both a long and short trade.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 07/06/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we might see some more upside in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, depending on what the market gives us, we see several options to enter a trade.
DAX potential pull-back.DAX had an excellent run since our buy signal (see chart below) more than two months ago (March 21) but after it broke above the former All Time High (ATH) on May 19, it has formed a top and is pulling back:
As long as the price is closing the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it will be a buy opportunity targeting the top of the (dotted) Channel Up at 16600. If however it breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will quick sell towards the Channel's bottom at 15350 and add a new buy there. In either case, the target remains intact at 16600.
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 06/06/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we might see some more upside in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, depending on what the market gives us, we see several options to enter a trade.
Elliott Wave View: DAX Pullback in ProgressShort term Elliott Wave View in DAX shows that the Index ended wave (3) at 16333.28. It is now pulling back in wave (4). Internal subdivision of the pullback is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 16179.14 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 16224.32. Index then resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 15802.86 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 15872.60. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 15726.5 which completed wave A.
Index then did a corrective wave B rally which unfolded as another zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 15860.37 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 15726.74. Index then rallied higher in wave ((c)) towards 16079.73. This completed wave B. Index then resumes lower in wave C with internal subdivision as 5 waves. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 15925.22 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 16058.43. Expect Index to extend lower within wave ((iii)), then rally in wave ((iv)) followed by another leg lower in wave ((v)). This should complete wave C and (4). Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A which comes at 15103.6 – 15476.8. Near term, as far as pivot at 16333.28 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
DAX Critical junction on the 1day MA100.DAX hit today the bottom of the short term Channel Up. This is inside a larger Channel Up pattern that started during last year's market bottom.
As long as it holds, especially the 1day MA100, buy and target 16600 on a +6.34% repetition of the first short term Channel Up rally.
If the price closes under the 1day MA100, sell and target the bottom of the long term Channel Up at 15150.
The 1day RSI, trading inside a Channel Down, gives a clear indication as to when that low may be achieved.
Previous chart:
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 31/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we might see some more upside in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see an entry for both a long and short trade at the extremes.
DAX Trade break outs only. Neutral at the moment.DAX has turned neutral after the 16340 top and the subsequent test of the MA50 (1d).
As long as those two levels hold, it will remain sideways with no action to take.
The long term pattern is a double Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price closes over Resistance (1).
2. Sell if the price closes under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 16750 (top of Channel Up).
2. 15200 (Fibonacci 0.618 level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading under the MA trend line, consistent with the previous two bottoms of the Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 30/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we probably still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see an entry for both a long and short trade at the extremes.
FDAX UpdateToday's morning pump was brought to you by the Euros because their market was oversold. PCE numbers came in high but the algos don't care....
I don't expect FDAX to bounce up to the top, GERMANY IS IN AN OFFICIAL RECESSION! I predicted it all year, and it happened yet somehow their market is at ATH which is crazy AF. One of the most absurd things I've ever seen on the stock market.
I'm expecting a gap up Tuesday for a pump and dump but there is absolutely no guarantee, FDAX really needs to head down further
Anyways, recession:
www.cnn.com
DAX: reached the 1D MA50 but can drop more if it breaksDAX has almost hit today the 1D MA50 (last time it had contact was March 29th) and reacted with a rebound. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 45.355, MACD = 76.400, ADX = 25.34&) indicating that this is a first Support level but if we close a 1D candle under it, can drop more until they turn red.
Consequently, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we will keep our first buy open, targeting the R1 (TP = 16,300). If a 1D candle closes under it, we will buy again on the 1D MA100, which is waiting on S2 and keep it for the long term even though a max technical drawdown extendes as low as -6.60%. Those where the % declines on the previous two corrective legs inside the Channel Up since December.
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DAX Can decline more before finding a bottomDAX had an excellent run since our buy signal two months ago (March 21) but has since formed a top and is pulling back (see chart below):
The price is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today is testing the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since March 29. The 1D RSI is still neutral around the 50.00 mark, meaning that there is still more room left on this downside. The next technical Support is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is on a significant Support cluster as it is just above the October 01 Higher Lows trend-line.
We expect a bottom to be made at 15500, it offers a solid R/R ration for buying and that is what we will go, targeting 16300 and the previous High, which was the first target of the late March rebound.
An addition signal to help with taking the best buy entry possible, can be the 1D RSI. A Double Bottom at least (especially as close to the 37.80 Support as possible) would be ideal.
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