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GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) after a confirmed bearish structure and pre-market rejection. - Confluence Factors: - Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price retraces into a bearish FVG for a high-probability short entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed bearish break supports downside continuation. - Kijun Resistance: 1H Kijun line aligns with the FVG, reinforcing dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: The price action indicates a sweep of liquidity above the FVG, creating strong rejection signals. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG zone for tight risk management. - 1:2.35 RRR as per chart, targeting liquidity zones below. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,309 , aligning with intermediate liquidity. - TP2 around 20,250 for a deeper liquidity sweep. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: GER40 shows bearish signals with a weakening broader market sentiment. - Volume Profile: Declining buy-side volume within the FVG zone signals limited bullish interest. - Pre-Market Behavior: Rejection from the FVG aligns with pre-market bearish tendencies, further supporting the setup. Execution Plan: - Short entry within the FVG zone, managing risk with a stop-loss above the FVG. - Strict adherence to the 1:2.35 RRR with partial profit-taking at TP1 and remaining at TP2. - Monitor market conditions and invalidate if price reclaims the FVG or breaks the Kijun level. Extra Note: Keep an eye on macroeconomic triggers that could cause sudden volatility, particularly during the European session. Let me know if further adjustments are needed!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
DAX forming a top?GER40 - 24h expiry Sequence of 7 positive daily performances broken. We are trading at overbought extremes. Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains. Short term MACD has turned negative. A higher correction is expected. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. We look to Sell at 20415 (stop at 20535) Our profit targets will be 20115 and 20025 Resistance: 20350 / 20474 / 20600 Support: 20260 / 20200 / 20000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) following a clear bearish shift in market structure. - Confluence Factors: - Break of Structure (BOS): Price confirms a bearish break, with a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) reinforcing downside bias. - FVG Rejection: Anticipating rejection within the 1H FVG as price retests this imbalance area, providing an optimal entry point. - Kijun Resistance: Kijun line on the 1H timeframe aligns as a dynamic resistance level, further supporting bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss above the FVG zone. - Target: TP1 near liquidity at 20,306 ; TP2 at deeper liquidity grab around 20,260 . Confluence Factors: - Market Context: Indices showing signs of pullback after extended bullish momentum, with GER40 leading a potential retracement. - Volume Signals: Declining buy-side volume during recent highs, indicating exhaustion and paving the way for downside. - Liquidity Levels: Price action aligns with tapping liquidity from equal highs before driving into lower demand zones. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the 1H FVG. - Maintain tight risk management with a stop-loss just above the FVG zone. - Reassess trade if price closes above the Kijun or invalidates the bearish structure. Extra Note: Monitor macroeconomic news or EUR-related sentiment for potential catalysts that could impact volatility in GER40. Let me know if you'd like any additional details or adjustments!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones. - Confluence Factors: - Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum. - Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk. - 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity. - TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open. - Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias. - Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it. - Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2. - Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup. Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Weekly outlook on point. 20506 was the max and we have seen the start of profit taking today. I expect 20200 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday but it will be a choppy way to get there. We have an ugly head & shoulders on the 30m/1h tf and the measured move goes to around 20200. Close is always close enough. It’s possible that we retest 20500 before another leg down, so don’t short the lows, unless there is a clear and strong break below. dax futures comment: Clear trading range 20300 - 20500 until we strongly break above or below. Bears closed at the lows, which is good for them and fits with my weekly outlook. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20500 bull case: As long as bulls keep it above 20300, they are good. They want to keep the market in a tight trading range near the ath. That’s about it. Got no higher targets for you. 20500 is beyond insane but we can go higher if we see another Santa rally after the pullback. Invalidation is below 20280ish. bear case: Bears want to print lower highs and trap late bulls. If they strongly break below 20300 tomorrow, we could see some acceleration to bigger support. The poor structure between 19700 and 20300 is one giant spike that wants to be filled. For now I take it level by level. 20300 and then see if we can do 20200 and 20000 after. Invalidation is above 20520. short term: No bigger interest in shorting now lows but rather pullbacks, as long as we make lower highs. 20200 is my first target and if we go above 20400 again, I would only short 20500 again or on really strong momentum. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: 20478 was previous resistance and the open was 20480. Shorting it was the trade of the day.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: 20425 is the ath. It’s a parabolic blow-off top at the end of the bull trend. We will likely see a deeper pullback next week. My first targets below are 20000 and then the breakout retest around 19700. We can obviously print another higher high but the upside will probably be very limited next week. I have drawn 3 upper bull trend lines that fit the current structure and no matter how sloppy I draw them, I can’t see this going much further than 20500. Always keep in mind that this is not an exact science, especially when you try to determine tops. We could easily go 21000. At this point it’s just very unlikely compared to a pullback, given the structure and Opex next week. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: 20500-20600 is my max on this. You will not get any bullish outlooks from me anymore. I could be wrong on this for weeks and would not care. The chart shows my preferred path and the only I will be willing to trade. Market will most likely test the daily 20ema this year again. Currently at exactly the breakout point around 19660. There we will see a decisions if bulls can do another retest of the highs into year end or if profit taking and sideways movement will close this year. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 19000 - 20600 bull case: Bulls can keep this going as long as not many start to take profits and bears not doing anything. If the momentum stays on, there is no reason why this could not go up to 20600 or higher. Is this likely after 800 points last week? The first pullback after such a leg up is probably getting bought and a good buying opportunity for many bulls. Until we begin to see a bigger pullback, bulls have all the arguments on their side, no matter how overbought it is. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Just the fact that this is overbought beyond anything ever before, does not help any trader. My preferred path forward is a deeper pullback to at least 19700 but as of now, we have not seen a single daily bear bar for 7 trading days. Anything in this section is dependent on bears actually building bigger selling pressure and breaking below prior lows. We are trading at the top of multiple multi-year or monthly patterns and that should be enough to at least stall the market for now. Best case for the bears would be a quick move down to 20000 on Monday, to open up the possibility of a decent two-legged move down to 19700 or more. At 20k, I expect buyers to step in hard and produce another bounce first. Invalidation is above 20600. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. → Last Sunday we traded 19626 and now we are at 20384. 700+ points on the week. short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Converged all major upper trend lines around 20400-20600 and added a potential two-legged correction for next week.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
The Coming EU Recession into 2028, Mercedes BENZ $MBG Triple TopThe principal pillar of the European economy is Germany, recognized as its wealthiest nation. A parallel can be drawn to the adage regarding America: when it experiences a minor setback, the global economy often faces significant repercussions. It is often asserted that the essence of "Deutschland" is deeply rooted in its automotive industry, leading to its moniker as "Autoland." German automobiles have consistently been esteemed as the finest globally. In fact, the most thriving economic engine in Europe has been heavily dependent on the automotive sector, and the initiatives aimed at addressing climate change have been likened to the act of vanquishing a vampire—driving a stake through its heart. Volkswagen, the biggest car maker in Europe, is warning that it might have to cut thousands of jobs and close some factories in Germany. This is happening because they are having tough talks with unions about rising costs. The push for climate-friendly cars has really affected how many people want to buy new vehicles, and they are also facing strong competition in the electric car market. The news about job cuts and possible factory shutdowns is causing a big stir around the world. Other car companies like Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Ford are also making cuts and letting employees go. Volkswagen is planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers and is even thinking about closing some factories, which is a big deal. Bosch, the largest auto parts supplier in the world and a major employer in Germany, is also cutting hours and pay for around 10,000 workers. Even Meyer Werft, a shipbuilding company that has been around since the 1800s, recently needed a huge bailout of $423 million to stay out of bankruptcy. The economic strategies implemented by Brussels have significantly weakened the overall economy of the European Union. Germany has remained committed to the traditional Mercantile economic model, maintaining elevated tax rates to curb inflation while producing goods for export to generate profits. In 2023, the automotive sector is projected to represent as much as 17% of Germany's exports. This sector has created over 750,000 jobs. However, German manufacturing has struggled to achieve a full recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, currently reaching only about 90% of its pre-pandemic output.
XETR:MBGShort
by BallaJi
2024-12-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral until we get a decent 1h bar close below the 20ema. 20400 is overbought on probably every metric known to man. Does this mean we will sell off tomorrow? Sadly not. Can go even higher, since bears not doing anything and the buyers are still making money because we print daily new ath. Chances are there for a deep pullback into the weekend but they are very low and we need strong confirmation first. Zero interest in buying this. comment: Break one bull wedge and print another. Bulls are still in control. Bears need a 1h close below ema , which would also be a break of the nearest lower bull trend line. 20300 tomorrow would be nice and anything below 20250 really bad for bulls. Got no more bullish targets for you. It’s a bubble. It will pop. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20400 bull case: Even beyonder overbought today. Can obviously continue but buying this is asking for getting trapped. Invalidation is below 20250. bear case: The 1h 20ema now hold for basically 1100 points. It will break over the next 1-3 sessions. 20300 is the first target for bears and they should finally stop the market from making daily new ath. Still a couple of bullish patterns that need to be broken first, before we can talk about two-sided trading or bears having arguments for lower prices. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Only waiting for bears to come around. Zero interest in buying. Below 20100 into the weekend would be nice but it’s unlikely. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 1h 20ema held for more than a week now.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
GER 40 Trade Log GER40 1H Long Setup: Entering at 0.5 FVG Level I'm eyeing a long position on the GER40 (DAX) based on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's the breakdown of my trade setup: 🔹 Entry Point: - Entering at the 0.5 level of the hourly Fair Value Gap (FVG). 🔹 Risk Management: - Risk: 1% of the trading account. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2. - Stop Loss (SL): Placed below the 1H Kijun-sen line to account for potential volatility. 🔹 Trade Idea: - Expecting a retracement to the FVG before resuming the upward trend. - Aware that price action might slice through our SL, but willing to see how it unfolds. 📊 Technical Analysis: - Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the cloud, indicating a bullish trend. Placing the SL below the 1H Kijun-sen provides a safety net against sudden dips. - FVG Levels: Fair Value Gaps often act as magnets for price retracements. The 0.5 level is a strategic entry point to capitalize on the potential bounce. 🌐 Macro Factors Supporting the Trade: - Economic Resilience: Recent data shows that the German economy is demonstrating resilience amid global uncertainties, boosting investor confidence. - ECB Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank's accommodative stance continues to support liquidity in the markets, which is positive for equities. - Political Developments: Speculation around leadership changes, such as discussions about President Macron's position, might lead to increased investor optimism in European markets. - Global Market Sentiment: A general shift towards risk-on sentiment globally can propel the GER40 higher. 📝 Note: Trading always carries risk. While the setup aligns with both technical and macroeconomic factors, unforeseen events can impact the outcome. Stay vigilant and adjust your strategy as needed. Let's monitor this trade and see how it plays out. Feel free to share your thoughts or any insights you might have!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera
2024-12-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Not getting bullish above 20000. We have a clear wedge which will likely break tomorrow. Once the profit taking begins, it will be nasty. For now longs against the 1h 20ema are decent until we clearly break below and outside of the wedge. I doubt we close this week above 20000 tbh. comment: Trade the current bull wedge until broken. I expect that we will see a breakout tomorrow or Friday and I do think it’s possible that we close the week below 20000. The rally is beyond overbought and climactic. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20300 bull case: 20300. Beyond overbought. Can go some more but not much. High is near or already in. Invalidation is below 19700. bear case: Market broke above multiple patterns and chances are good that this is a bull trap and we will reverse soon. For now the bears have nothing but I expect a deep pullback soon. Maybe a pullback to 20000 tomorrow, retest of 20250 or even 20300 and then some more downside. Rough guess as of now. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: No more bullish targets. 20000 is the first pullback target and I think we will break out of the bull wedge tomorrow or Friday. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 20200 was good support, so longs against that paid multiple times.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Short Position (Discretionary) Rationale : - Overextension: The GER40 index appears significantly overextended without substantial fundamental support. - Rising German Bond Yields: An increase in German government bond yields suggests a shift towards higher borrowing costs, potentially impacting equity valuations. - MACD Divergence: A notable divergence between the MACD indicator and price action indicates a weakening bullish momentum, often preceding a trend reversal. - CVD Divergence: Divergence in the Cumulative Volume Delta points to a disparity between buying and selling pressures, signaling a potential downturn. Trade Details : - Position: Short GER40 via market order - Risk Management: - Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2 Note: This trade is discretionary and anticipates a sharp correction at market open. Despite the lack of a formal signal, the confluence of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors supports this decision.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
2024-12-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral again. More chop expected. Can bulls do another leg up? Yes. Is it likely? I think it’s 50/50 right now. Bears obviously not doing enough and bulls are still buying above 20000, which is very bullish. Bulls have 2 bull trend lines as support around 20000 and 19950. It’s still BTFD until we make lower lows again below 19900. comment: After many months of writing about the most outrageous target for the dax, we finally did it. What a time to be alive. Don’t look to be the first bear. Can go higher obviously but I won’t chase anything here. My bullish targets are met, I don’t care about any more upside other than small scalps. Will wait for bigger bears to come around and will watch closely when bulls begin to take bigger profits. current market cycle : bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Can do 20200 but we could have also seen the highs. It’s a gamble to bet on higher prices. Long the pullbacks until we make lower lows again on the 1h or 2h tf. Invalidation is below 19700. bear case: Nothing changed. Got nothing for bears until they can get a daily close below 19700 again. We most likely spend more time 19800 - 20100 before another impulse. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Neutral. We can go higher but I don’t expect much tbh. 19800 - 20100 is my current range. Same as yesterday. Best bears can hope for is to test 19950 tomorrow. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 20k or Selling 2070. Clear support and resistance on the day.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
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OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Thief_Trader
2024-12-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral for now. Bullish targets are met with 20k and I will scalp long we have a clear setup but not chasing anything Too early for shorts, best to not mess up your year this late. comment : After many months of writing about the most outrageous target for the dax, we finally did it. What a time to be alive. Don’t look to be the first bear. Can go higher obviously but I won’t chase anything here. My bullish targets are met, I don’t care about any more upside other than small scalps. Will wait for bigger bears to come around and will watch closely when bulls begin to take bigger profits. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Got nothing more for you. Market’s tend to move from trend to trading range instead of trend in the other direction. So we could spend some more time up here. Invalidation is below 19700. bear case: Yeah… Also got nothing for you until bears can get a daily close below 19700 again. We most likely spend more time 19800 - 20100 before another impulse. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Neutral. We can go higher but I don’t expect much tbh. 19800 - 20100 is my current range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longs only. My weekly outlook was pitch perfect and good for 300+ points. Bar 27 to 39 were more than enough signal bars to go long. 40 was really give up bar by the bears and market just went straight up.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
Few like European equity, but they should - GER40 to new highs Few like investing in Europe at present, and while France remains constrained by political risk, the German equity index (GER40) is doing everything right from a technical and price action perspective, and positioning for further upside seems the play. Having held the 19k support level throughout November, the bulls have built a solid platform to progress, taking the index through downtrend resistance & backed by solid range expansion and the index closing on weekly highs. The ATHs are now being tested, subsequently, a closing break through 19.679 would encourage momentum accounts to chase the upside as we roll into the ECB meeting (12 Dec) and year-end. A daily close below the 5-day EMA would be a signal to turn cautious, flipping to outright shorts on a closing break of 19k. But for now, long and strong seems the higher probability position. Good luck to all.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Pepperstone
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Max bullish. Clear break above and dax printed 19600 again. New ath next week is likely just a matter of when. Targets above are 20000, That’s it. For bears it’s anything below 19130 but that is far away and very low probability. If November closes above 19600, I think 20k is almost a given. After that I will not care about bullish targets any more until we corrected at least 30%. Does not mean I won’t continue scalping it both ways. Quote from last week: comment: Thursday and Friday changed the character of the market. Bulls broke above the bear trend line and closed both days at the highs. Next target is the last bear trend line around 19430 before we can retest 19600+. Can only be bullish after past 2 days. Bears can only change my mind if they can close below 19100 again. For now I think many bears gave up and try again around 19500/19600. Is this structure very bullish? Absolutely not. I just think a retest of 19600+ is more likely than a close below 19100. The market spend enough time ins this trading range that the next push above could be the last before we correct in a bigger fashion. After this push up, I would not look for bullish targets until we have seen 18000. Market is overdue for a correction. We will see at least 16000 in 2025. comment : Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. current market cycle: trading range but if we make higher highs, we are obviously in a continuation of the bull trend. key levels: 19100 - 20000 bull case: Bulls want 20000. Clear as day, as is the breakout. My chart is clear and my invalidation levels are too. Invalidation is a daily close below 19100. bear case: Not much for the bears until they close below 19100 again. Did not change that sentence since past Sunday. Bears will dominate 2025 but now is not the time to be early as a bear. Invalidation is above 20100. outlook last week: short term: Very bullish above 19400 and even more above 19600. Below 19100 we are absolutely neutral once again. Hell below 18800. → Last Sunday we traded 19322 and now we are at 19626. 300 points on the week, hope you made some. short term : Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted bull trend lines and my 5-wave series is still valid.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Max bullishness. Bulls bought it all today. We barely made higher highs and are still under 19500 but every small dip was relentlessly bought. Bulls also defended the Globex gap and that fact + that we closed right at the highs is the strongest buy signal going into tomorrow there is. I expect a quick move abov 19500, followed by some sideways movement before we go for 19600 and I don’t think it can prevent a new ath either tomorrow or next week. I only get bearish below 19350. comment : Bulls set up a big breakout for the coming days. Every dip was bought and we closed at the highs. Easy validation levels now. 19519 was high of the week and we will likely hit it tomorrow for some sideways movement afterwards. Very bullish for 19600 after that. If we drop below 19380 again, means the bull trend line broke and we have many support prices between that and 19300. Do or die for the bulls here. Fail and down to 19300 or lower. Break above and likely 19600 and new ath. current market cycle : trading range key levels: 19300 - 19600 bull case: Bulls want the breakout above 19520 and they are perfectly set up to get it. Measured move from today brings us almost exactly to the ath 19802. There. Are. No. Coincidences. Invalidation is below 19350. bear case: Bears need to stay below 19500 to have a reasonable chance of going more sideways and then down below 19350. Below that, they will likely gain more momentum and go down to 19300 or 19200. Until then, they have little arguments on their side after today. Market now closed 4 consecutive bars above the daily 20ema and bears could not even close the Globex gap today. That is so bullish because it’s so rare, you can not think about shorting this until bears have shown strength again. Invalidation is above 19520. short term: Bullish. Expect a meltup. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longs only. Every dip buy made you money.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra - 19300 was crushed early and we tested 19200 and given yesterday. Market tried to reverse it but failed below the breakout point. That’s bearish on one hand but we closed above the daily and 1h 20ema. Bulls need 19500 and bears 19100. We are trading right in the middle of it and that zone is death for your account. Wait for a strong breakout. It will likely happen tomorrow. comment: Market hit the midpoint of this trading range and went back above 19300. We are in no mans land between 19200 and 19400. Bearish below, bullish above. Break above 19350 tomorrow and we will see 19400 and likely 19460 afterwards. Fail at 19200 and we go down to 19000. Absolute in balance is what this is, so no bias on my end. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19200 - 19400 bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 19350 for higher prices. That’s all there is to it right now. Invalidation is below 19250. bear case: Bears want to stay inside the bear channel and test 19200 again. We are seeing many converging lines for tomorrow, so it’s reasonable to hope for a bigger trend day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 19350. short term: Neutral. Clear levels given, hoping for a big day tomorrow. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Short from the open, which was a bit unexpected imo. Market then formed clear and expected support at 19200, which was a good long for 200+ points.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds