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2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the big after hour dip yesterday and had a big rally but damn that was some big and fast selling in the last 2 hours of the US session. What did we learn today? Shift into Dax and DJI, since they just melted again and new ATH on both (dax xetra, not futures though) and rest of the markets made lower highs and lower lows. Still absolutely neutral imo but if bears get follow through tomorrow, the highs are probably in for this bull leg. dax futures comment: 3 clearn pushes up to a new xetra ath and volume is picking up again. Time for a reversal. Can you short this yet? I think so but stop has to be 19050ish and we are still above many bull trend lines. If you want higher probability, wait for bears to make lower lows again. Absolute ripper of a bull leg since early August and given the atrocious volume, had to be a short squeeze. I expect the next 2000 points will be made to the downside over the next 10 weeks. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels : 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls were relentlessly buying this but now with a new ath and all the remaining bear stops hit, market is free to do whatever. Bulls could do a blow-off top 19100/19200 before strongly reversing but i favor a retest of 19000 tomorrow before sideways to down movement. Bulls want to stay above 18800 as long as possible. Invalidation is below 18800. bear case: Bears want to trap as many late bulls as possible but before more bears come around and more bulls begin to take profits, we would need to start breaking bull trend lines and producing consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. The daily chart tells you everything you need to know as a bear right now. Below 18800 bears start to have some arguments but as of now, expect BTFD to continue until it has clearly stopped. Invalidation is above 18800. short term: If you get bullish at a new ath, no one can help you. Trend is your friend and all that but betting on another leg up is gambling at best. Scalp long if the momentum is there but get out early. This can and probably will turn soon. Absolutely neutral as of now and only touching it if one side is clearly in control. Caught a 60 point drop today, very happy with that. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope but long term shorts are looking juicy. trade of the day: Buying the open was again very profitable. Long above bar 29 was very reasonable. Shorting below bar 72 was also a good trade, one which I took.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
DAX H4 | Strong bullish momentumDAX (GER30) is looking to make a bullish break above a swing-high resistance and could potentially rise higher from here. Buy entry is at 18,855.31 (wait for the 1-hour candle to close above this level for confirmation). Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support. Take profit is at 19,008.06 which is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
DAX ahead of a mega 1W Bullish Cross.Last month (July 15, see chart below), we made a bold Megaphone prediction on DAX (FDAX1!), which delivered both an excellent sell opportunity and a bottom buy entry: The situation now is more difficult as despite DAX's recovery, the U.S. markets are under a certain degree of volatility. We need to zoom out to the 1W time-frame to answer that and get a better understanding of the long-term trend. The key development will be the upcoming formation of a 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It will be the first since November 20 2023, which was in fact the last time the index hit and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), forming the previous Higher Low of the 2-year Channel Up. As a result, having already tested and rebounded earlier this month on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 9 months, we believe that the current 4-week green rally will be extended. The last two Bullish Legs of the Channel Up initially rose by +16.74% and +23.84% before their first corrective pull-back. As a result, our Target on the medium-term is 19800 (+16.74% rise from the recent bottom). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
DAX H4 | Falling to overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 18,579.74 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 18,400.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 18,760.14 which is a swing-high resistance.0 High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Morning and I hope you are well. No update yesterday after hours since I was so sick I just had to sleep. That was the first miss since almost a year ago or 202 publishes if you will. Update would not have been any different since Globex did not move anything much. tl;dr Indexes - Most markets moved sideways so I will not pretend there is much value to extract out of the price action. We will have a bigger breakout soon and I have absolutely no idea to which side since I am not a fortune teller or a social media jack who posts pictures with a Lambo. They seem to be very sure of every move the market makes. You decide which is more reasonable. dax futures comment: Market is staying above 18600 but 18700 is resistance. Will probably see a breakout today or tomorrow. No deeper meaning in this sideways chop. I lean slightly bearish to get below 18600 again. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are too weak to push above 18700 but keeping it above 18600 makes the market completely neutral. Bulls want to stay inside the bull channel which leads to 19000. Not much more to it. Play the range. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears also too weak to get below 18600 and currently the 1h 20ema is big support. Bears need a strong close below 18600 to have any argument on their side. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Overall more bullish than bearish but the 100 point range is as neutral as it gets. I scalp and wait for the breakout. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying near 18600 since it was support many many times.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: 18700 was my upper target for the week and the high was 18730. Market now created 3 legs up but we don’t know high leg 3 can get. There is no reason to assume bears will begin stronger selling. If 18730 holds next week, consider me surprised. A bigger pullback after a 9% move up is expected but as of now, there are no facts to base this on. Shorting into a strong bull trend is a losing strategy in the long run. Targets for bulls are 18800, 18900 and obviously the ath at 19204. Bears would need to get below 18400 to have better arguments on their side. Quote from last week: bull case: Last Sunday I wrote about mostly overlapping bars for the bulls and since Thursday they left no doubt that this was not the start of the bear trend. Huge bull breakout above the previous bear gap to 18200 and they are not right at the minor bear trend line from mid July. If bulls are really strong, they can get a third push up and maybe a measured move from Thu/Fri which would bring us to 18800ish. The buying is climactic though and a pullback is expected over the next 1-2 days. Best for bulls would be if they would stay above 18000 and the daily ema/bull trend line. Info: Will post the weekly updates on the DAX Index from XETRA and only daily updates on DAX futures. Everyone who trades futures should be able to cope with the fact that it’s a 60 point difference atm. comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. We are in the last leg of this trend and no one should be surprised if we close August below 18000 key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls hardly meeting any resistance by the bears on the daily chart and they dance as long as the musics plays. They know the rally is climactic and a deeper pullback can happen anytime. They want to break the bear trend line from the ath and print a new one but they would need to find much more buyers above 18700. The rally was more bears stepping aside than strong bulls buying. On the weekly and monthly chart we are at the high of this bull wedge and market bounced just shy of the monthly 20ema 2 weeks ago. If bulls close the month above 18550, it would be another buy signal. Invalidation is below 18350. bear case: Any bull buying above 18700 buys into previous resistance, near measured move target and at the bear trend line that held since May. No matter how you look at this, it is a bad buy. The rally is climactic without any pullbacks. Market only stalled for 1-2 days at most before breaking out again. Bears see all that and atrocious volume. They know it’s a short squeeze and that it can reverse fast. Right now they aren’t doing much but above 18700 bigger bears begin scaling into shorts again and if the market stalls enough, many bulls want to secure their profits before they vanish. Bears first target is 18500 and for the market to go sideways and start making lower highs and lower lows again. One more thing that’s easier to see on xetra than on futures is the monthly closes. Xetra has no close above 18510. Will this month be different? I doubt it. Also a clear ascending triangle if you take only bar bodies into account. Invalidation is above 18750. outlook last week: short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. → Last Sunday we traded 18322 and now we are at 18633. Neutral was wrong, market produced only 1 bear bar and even that could not get below the previous day’s low. Bad outlook. short term: I will not get bullish at 18633 when market could not close one month above 18510. I rather wait and scalp than to buy into a potential high. Rally went mostly without me but that’s ok. It’s about not losing first, then making some, then making the big bucks. Neutral going into next week. If bulls break above 18700, will scalp long for ath test. medium-long term: Market is right at the bear trend line from the ath. Decent chance we make a new one but I am much more certain that we will see 17000 in 2024 again. Will update more here next Sunday. current swing trade: Nope but I think we are getting close for me to short this again. chart update: Swapped dax futures to dax xetra and only left the most important prices on the chart and the 5 wave series. If we get a w5 in the same ballpark as W1 and W3, it could get us above 19000 but as of now, the bear trend line is valid.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
1
DAX H4 | Approaching pullback resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 18,579.74 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 18,302.64 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
GER40 swing sell idea(1:10-1:20RR)GER40. 18500, which is our level of interest(Quarterly VWAP + 0.786 fib drawn from all time high) has been quite important level this year. GER40 has been bullish for 11 days straight. This indicates an overextended market, with the possibility of a Weekly Head& Shoulders pattern forming around 18500. This is a 10-20% move that should happen in a couple of weeks, counting the recent volatility in the markets all around. Will update next week. Fractals Trading Community, Mei
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by martinmei
What's unraveling the economic powerhouse of Europe?Once a stalwart of European stability, Germany's economic engine is facing unprecedented challenges. This deep dive explores the intricate factors driving its recession and the far-reaching implications for the continent. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have wreaked havoc on Germany's economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has disrupted energy supplies, increased production costs, and hindered global trade. Rising interest rates and weak global demand have further exacerbated the downturn. The European Central Bank's aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening investment and spending. Meanwhile, a global economic slowdown, driven by factors such as rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, has reduced demand for German exports, a crucial driver of its economy. The consequences for Germany and Europe are profound, with potential for increased unemployment, slower growth, and political instability. As Germany is one of Europe's largest economies, its downturn has a ripple effect on other countries in the region. The recession could lead to job losses, as businesses cut costs to weather the storm, exacerbating social tensions and increasing the burden on government welfare systems. Slower growth in Germany will contribute to slower growth in the Eurozone as a whole, limiting the ECB's ability to raise interest rates further and potentially hindering its efforts to combat inflation. Economic downturns can often lead to political instability, as governments face increased pressure to implement policies that alleviate economic hardship. This could lead to political gridlock or even changes in government. Can Germany weather this storm? Join us as we delve into the complexities of this economic enigma and explore potential paths forward.
XETR:DAXShort
by signalmastermind
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. dax futures comment: Bears printed multiple bars below the 1h 20ema. What a time to be alive. Bulls took profits on the insane meltup but bought 18400 again, which has a bull trend line running through it. As long as that holds, bulls are good. If bears come around again tomorrow, open of the week is a magnet at 19379 and the low of the week at 18347. Tomorrow evening we get the FOMC minutes, so best to be flat going into it. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls took a breather and kept it above 18400, which is still above the 4h 20ema and max bullish. Below 18347 I think we will see more profit taking and some bigger move down, maybe to the daily ema at 18170. For now bulls remain in control and higher prices are expected as long as above daily ema and the bull trend line intact. For tomorrow I expect mostly sideways movement between 18400 - 18550. Invalidation is below 18340. bear case: Bears stopped the train for now and got near the open of the week, which is good for them. They probably made the market more neutral going into FOMC tomorrow evening. If they could break below the bull trend line, we could see 18300 but everything below would be a huge surprise. They probably wont fight the bulls for 18400 too much and come around above 18500 again. Technically the bears can be hopeful because the high is still a lower high below the start of August at 18650 which was also the high tick for the month so far. Invalidation is above 18650. short term: max bullish - only look for longs as long bull trend line is intact and we are above 18300. Below we can look for lower targets like the daily ema but it will probably be just a pullback in this bull trend (inside the big trading range on the daily tf) medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nopety nope nope. Only long scalps currently. trade of the day: I fought the bears too many times today. Denial is the death of your account. It was just bearish since the opening reversal below bar 31. 32 was strong enough to expect more downside but it was also the low of the Globex trading range. Tough to take. Market could not print more then tails and bar 54 above the 15m 20ema and bears had no reason to exit their shorts anywhere. Bad trading on my part today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds
2
GER30 H1 | Potential bullish bounceGER30 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 18,367.33 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 18,200.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 18,582.14 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
1
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - That reversal is something you will not witness often while you are alive. I don’t think there are many arguments beside’s “short squeeze” that could produce such a violent move but then again, who cares why. In my weekly outlook I wrote that I can only be neutral going into this week and all was looking decent until US opened and market almost went up again in a straight line. At this point I am fairly certain that in the next 2-6 weeks you will read about funds closing because they got caught so hard on this. Train is not stopping so look for decent entries when market refuses to go down again and ride the big wave up. dax futures comment: I wrote that best for bulls would be to stay above 18000 on a pullback and a measured move could bring us to 18800. Market can’t trade below the 1h 20ema and bulls are just unreal currently. Only look for longs until bears can do a 1h bar close below the 1h ema. Next targets above are 18800 and then 19000. Insane strength. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are just in a big hurry without any bears around. Must pump the market as fast as high as it can get. Please don’t look for macro reasons here, you are out of your mind if you try to come up with rational arguments. Just find an ema that is holding and long it. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Nothing. When bears manage to print a bar close below the 1h 20ema, I will look for bearish targets. As of now it’s 18400 they have to conquer but who on earth would short this right now. Unless we get a huge event and scared traders, this won’t stop until new ath is reached. Small chance we see a bigger pullback on the big bear trend line around 18750. Invalidation is above 19000. short term: max bullish - only look for longs until bears print a bar close below the 1h 20ema medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nopety nope nope. Only long scalps currently. trade of the day: Long EU open and never look at it until US close. Doji at the 1h 20ema, so go long above it. There were two decent targets above, gap close to Friday and last weeks high. Both are magnets, no reason to exit anywhere. When in doubt, zoom out.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment : Above pretty much described exactly what happened last week and for now all my bearish targets are met. I still expect another test of the lows. These tests can be higher,lower or pretty much the same. You never ever know in advance and you have to trade it as it comes. After that retest we will likely see another pullback to the 20ema or previous pullback highs (right now 17862) and more sideways movement inside the current range. It’s always an obvious pattern that we get another strong leg in the trend direction, when the daily 20ema is close enough or we hit it 1-3 times. Going into next week I am absolutely neutral and I think 17700-17900 is a dead zone for trading. Want to see strong momentum in either direction for me to scalp. comment: Breaking above the wedge bear flag after a -8% move is a low probability event but that’s what happened. Bulls are under the most recent bear trend line starting mid July and there is no reason why this should hold when all other technical resistance prices did not hold in the last 2 weeks. It sure looks like a cup where the handle is missing but after such wild moves, I will only ever be neutral and take the market hour by hour. current market cycle: Big nope of that bear trend take last week. Trading range price action with a big range. key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Last Sunday I wrote about mostly overlapping bars for the bulls and since Thursday they left no doubt that this was not the start of the bear trend. Huge bull breakout above the previous bear gap to 18200 and they are not right at the minor bear trend line from mid July. If bulls are really strong, they can get a third push up and maybe a measured move from Thu/Fri which would bring us to 18800ish. The buying is climactic though and a pullback is expected over the next 1-2 days. Best for bulls would be if they would stay above 18000 and the daily ema/bull trend line. Invalidation is below 17900. bear case: 18000 was my target last week where we should reverse at latest and bulls just melted through it to 18400. Most traders knew the selling down to 17100 was climactic and a pullback was expected but most markets almost reversed all of it and dax is also on it’s way. Where does this leave the bears? Humbled to say the least. They are focussing on the two bear trend lines above us at 18430 and the big one from the ath at 18650. So my preferred path forward would look like the drawn bullish 5 wave series where we can expect some pullback over the next 1-2 days and a potential W5 to 18650 or higher but it is very possible that we stay below 18500 and trade back down. Invalidation is above 18450. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Pullback has two sided trading and I think a test below 17500 comes before 18000 but after a low, we should see another try from the bulls to print 18000 again or touch the daily 20ema. At which I will load up on shorts again, if we see bear strength. → Well, at least I wrote multiple times that a pullback could get to 18000 but since the bulls were just too strong on Thursday, I did not look for shorts as written last Sunday. Part of my outlook was ok but overall bearish reading was obviously as wrong as can be. short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. medium-long term: Bearishness from the last weeks was wrong. Need to see price action this and maybe the week after to take another shot of an medium term outlook. Long term is still maximum bearishness but that does not help with trading because an early trade is a wrong trade. current swing trade: Nope. chart update: Removed the bear gap, wedge bear flag and added a potential 5 wave series and an alternative two legged correction.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment What a time to be alive. Panic selling and now panic buying. Many markets are close to completely reversing the move from last week and Monday. For bulls to just slice through the bear trend line and every technical resistance there was, is something you will not see often on a daily chart. You can’t be anything but max bullish, since every small dip is bought. Until that stops and no one knows when, you have to look for longs. tl;dr Indexes - As mentioned above. Look for longs until we start making lower lows again and breaking 1h 20ema. SP500 made almost 9% in 8 days. If you are nerdy, go find other examples of something like that happening, after a equal move down before. Truly astonishing. dax futures comment: Bears lost and bulls got a give up bar today. Complete meltup and can’t be anything but max bullish going into tomorrow. So far dax respect no resistance and you can’t expect it to start tomorrow. Everything can happen, so a reversal is never out of the question but it’s not the probable thing for tomorrow. Obvious target above is now the August high at 18633. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend (very very low chance this is still that) - more likely we are in a giant trading range 17000 - 19000. We know once we break above 18400 key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Market was going nowhere but the data release at 2:30 pm CET did the trick and we just melted higher until market transitioned into a trading range. No selling pressure anywhere. Bulls want a measured move up to 18500 or higher. 1h 20ema should not be hit or market should not have any close below it. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears gave up today, which most likely means that we get follow through tomorrow and go big green into the weekend. I can’t see bears coming around at 18300. More likely they try 18500 or 18600 but it’s a rough guess. Just do not look for shorts. Invalidation is above 18700. short term: max bullish for 18500 or higher. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. Update: Will update this on the weekend. If we stay below 18700, small chance it could still be valid but if we go above, it’s just one giant trading range for longer. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 18000 was good.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Another grind higher and most markets are at big round numbers and near their daily 20ema. Tomorrow one side will give and I have no opinion who will win this. I think it’s absolutely 50/50. dax futures comment: Expanding triangle nested inside the bull wedge right under 18000. Bears are in do or die mode at this price and at least showed some selling pressure today but everything is bought. Until we see consecutive bigger bear bars below 17900, all is bullish. Bulls need a strong breakout above 18000 but the daily 20ema is at 18046 and that will be the biggest resistance so far. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is 17700 - 18000 bull case: Bulls refuse to let the market go down and yet today closed again almost exactly at the opening price. The EU session is absolutely not buying this rally and yet we grind higher. Bulls tried to get a decent close above 17970 today but failed miserably. I have no imagination how they could strongly break above 18000 but since we are right under it, it is a real possibility. Bulls only target left for now is a daily close above the daily ema which is at 18050ish. If they achieve that, we are probably free to melt to 18300. Invalidation is below 17850. bear case: Bears are trying but they are not doing enough. Since the daily volume is atrocious, I do think many traders are sidelined and waiting rather than buying the dip. Will see tomorrow and Friday on where we close this week. Bears have their do or die moment again at 18000. Either reverse or give up and let the bear gap close to 18200. I don’t have any reasonable arguments for the bears on why we would suddenly trade below 17800 again. For now they are not doing enough. Invalidation is above 18050. short term: Neutral until breakout to either side. Bullish above 18050 and bearish below 17850. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 17900 and selling 17970. Trading range price action. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - My bearish bias got obliterated today. While dax is still 100 points below the daily 20ema, sp500 and nasdaq closed above theirs. Overall much stronger buying than expected and what bears should have allowed imo. Maybe it was front running CPI or a solid short squeeze, it does not matter. All patterns allow for some over-/undershoot so bears could technically still sell off again and we have seen the highs for this pullback but that’s as low probability as it gets. More likely for sp500 is a retest of 5000, if bulls want it bad tomorrow and CPI probably has to be cold as well. Today’s US close was bullish af and we can’t expect anything but more bear pain tomorrow. Anything below 5400 would be a huge surprise again. dax futures comment: Not much new stuff to tell you. The wedge bear flag is alive but market is still below the daily ema. Bulls want 18000 and bears have to keep the gap to 18200 open or this bear trend loses much of it’s strength. Play the bear flag as seen in my weekly post, until clearly broken. Bears need a huge surprise tomorrow. Can’t be anything but bullish after today’s price action. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 18000 bull case: Bulls closed the us session at the highs and above 17900, which was previous resistance. They want the strong momentum going for 18000 tomorrow. For that they should keep it above 17850 or bears see it as a failed breakout and want to trade down to 17740 again. Bulls are in control. Invalidation is below 17850. bear case: Bears see the EU open and close which were 10 points apart. They need to stall this during the Globex session and generate huge selling pressure to keep this below 17900 again. If they fail, 18000 is almost a given. Most likely is that we see sideways movement at the highs before the US cpi release and depending on that, big up or big down but I have no idea how market will interpret the number to either side, so I will be flat as always and wait for a breakout and follow through. Invalidation is above 17950. short term: Neutral until a decent breakout out of the wedge bear flag. Bear case was hit hard today. If we stay at the highs and cpi is low, most likely much much more upside again. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 Update: -136 on the short. Flat again. trade of the day: Decent selling to a new weekly low from the open and selling bar 31 was reasonable. Stop had to be new high of the day. Could you have bought bar 41,42 or 43? I don’t think so. Huge selling and the first 3 bull bars forming a low 1. Buying that is usually low probability. Getting out of shorts above bar 42 was good though. Buying 47 was good because the low 2 did not trigger and bar 47 was way to strong for bear comfort. Market then never had a 15m close below the 15m ema again.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in between big swings. dax futures comment: Bull wedge broken through sideways movement. Market is in total balance around 17780 and we can only go absolutely neutral into tomorrow. Bulls need a strong breakout above 17850 and then 17900, if they want 18000 again and I can’t see this happening without a really low ppi print. Same argument for the bears, if needs to be hot for this to drop below 17700. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 17900 bull case: Only thing bulls had going for them today is that they prevented the market going below 17700 but nothing else. They broke outside the wedge bear flag and are risking a breakdown below tomorrow. Their last hope is a soft ppi print tomorrow and maybe the lower bear flag trend line holding (around 17700 right now). Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears printed two consecutive bear doji’s on the daily chart and achieved their main goal today by keeping the market below 18000. Their big bear case would be seriously hurt if bulls can get above the big round number again. Bears now want the wedge bear flag to break down and trade back to 17300 and below. Not more magic to it. You should not make stuff up after the market went mostly sideways. If you want more analysis of this, please read my weekly update. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Neutral until a decent breakout below the wedge bear flag but then full bear mode again. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 trade of the day: Short bar 9 while it formed. Was better visible on the 15m tf. Big resistance on round number 17900 and it had a decent signal bar before. Question is, could you have held through the pullback from bar 10 to 12? Today was a ranging day and scalping both directions on clear support was much easier to catch.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Bears will get a second leg down but it can take more time to go sideways. Whole week was basically going nowhere and as neutral as can be so you can’t go into next week with a huge bias. Both sides have valid arguments to reach prices above and below Friday’s close. Quote from last week: comment: Thursday and Friday printed two of the strongest consecutive bear bars for months and market stopped around the 200d ema. This selling is different than before and this will be the breakout to new lows, most likely down to the monthly 20ema around 17000-17400. My measured move target from 3 months ago was 17000. My best guess is that we get there over the next 2-8 weeks. Short term I expect a bounce but it’s absolutely possible that we print another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday to get to the monthly 20ema and my measured move target of 17000. comment: Above pretty much described exactly what happened last week and for now all my bearish targets are met. I still expect another test of the lows. These tests can be higher,lower or pretty much the same. You never ever know in advance and you have to trade it as it comes. After that retest we will likely see another pullback to the 20ema or previous pullback highs (right now 17862) and more sideways movement inside the current range. It’s always an obvious pattern that we get another strong leg in the trend direction, when the daily 20ema is close enough or we hit it 1-3 times. Going into next week I am absolutely neutral and I think 17700-17900 is a dead zone for trading. Want to see strong momentum in either direction for me to scalp. current market cycle: Clear bear trend with the break below the previous low on Monday. Market is in W2 and we get a W3 (second leg down) over the next 1-2 weeks. It is still a minor bear trend inside the big bull trend since 2023-10 until the bull trend line around 16850 is broken. key levels: 17000 - 18200 bull case: Climactic selling lead to an expected pullback and sideways movement. Are the bulls showing strength here? All bars since Monday are heavily overlapping and bulls barely made higher highs. The only argument they have going for them is that they bought dips and closed green at the highs of the bars. They are in damage control and need to close the huge bear gap up to 18200. The higher they can get, the better and weaker the bear trend becomes. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears crashed it down to 17110 and took profits there. They are currently seeing the wedge bear flag as a minor pullback inside the near bear trend. Their target is a measured move down to around 15600 but that’s far away and we have the big bull trend line from 20231-10 a bit below 17000. They want to start testing it because its also where the monthly 20 ema is and the last time we touched it was 2023-11. Two big obvious magnets below and enough reason for a second leg down. My preferred path forward is 1-2 bear bars on the daily chart next week, another pullback to the daily ema around 18000 before another leg down to the big bull trend line below 17000. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Will see a pullback but I do think it will be a very shallow one and it could stay below 18300. → Last Sunday we traded 17731 and now we are at 17776. High was 17862, so still 400 points below my target. I also wrote that we could crash down on Monday/Tuesday to 17000, which we did. Very good outlook. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback has two sided trading and I think a test below 17500 comes before 18000 but after a low, we should see another try from the bulls to print 18000 again or touch the daily 20ema. At which I will load up on shorts again, if we see bear strength. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Waiting for the wedge bear flag to break down and load up on shorts for a second leg down/W3 chart update: Added the wedge bear flag and adjusted the potential current channel we are in. Once the bear flag breaks down, we can draw a new channel but we won’t know for sure which one gets respected by the market until it get’s tested again. Also added the current bear gap to 18200.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls kept the wedge alive which surprised me. Consecutive bull bars on the daily chart now but only a slightly higher high. Odds favor a reversal below 17800 for at least 17600. I think there is a decent chance we puke during the Globex session again. Above 17820 I am probably wrong and the bull breakout could work. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls kept the market above 17450 and got a strong close today. For a bull breakout above this wedge bear flag, they need consecutive bull bars above 17800. If they let the market fall below 17700 again, odds favor the bears for at least 17600 and also after 3 pushes up, bears could get a breakout below. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears were not strong enough to push below 17450 and then stepped aside once bulls printed consecutive 1h bull bars above the 1h 20ema. They need to reverse under 17800 or many bears will give up until at least 18000 and if the momentum is strong enough tomorrow, this could become a very strong bull trend day. The daily 20ema is at 18150 and the breakout price from the June low is 18148. If bears do not prevent the bulls under 18000, we most likely will hit 18150. Odds still favor the bears to keep the wedge bear flag alive and break below instead of above. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Full bear mode but have to exit shorts above 18020ish and see how high the pullback can go before new shorts. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None. If bears show strength again tomorrow, want to get a short around 17900-18000 for tp 17000. trade of the day: I thought long and hard about why I did not long bar 50 or 52 and my answer is always the same, it was a bad buy, high in the trading range and at previous highs after the market had much two sided trading and odds favored the bears to go lower. Not taking that buy was absolutely fine. If you took it, good for you and I hope you made a lot of money.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds