Selling DAX into previous highs.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 14582 (stop at 14677)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Bespoke resistance is located at 14600.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
Our profit targets will be 14357 and 14317
Resistance: 14510 / 14560 / 14600
Support: 14440 / 14400 / 14340
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Dax30
DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis
Currently the volatility for DAX is at 6.28%, up from 6.13% last month.
From the volatility current percentile we are located on 57th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:
Bullish : 5.686%
Bearish : 5.885%
With this in mind we have currently 84.1% that the market is going to stay within the next channel
TOP Limit: 14850
BOT Limit: 13135
If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :
34.43% to hit the previous monthly high
57.86% to hit the previous monthly low
Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently
Weekly Timeframe : 40% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
Monthly Timeframe : 66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
DAX dips continue to attract buyers.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 13909 (stop at 13829)
Levels below 13850 continue to attract buyers.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
50 1 day EMA is at 13900.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 14109 and 14149
Resistance: 14000 / 14100 / 14160
Support: 13950 / 13900 / 13850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX40 TRADE IDEADAX40 has been on a bearish trend for the last three trading days . DAX40 is forming a Bullish trend.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3%, DOWN from 3.17% from last week
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 51th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.43% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14375
BOT: 13493
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14681
65% probability we are going to touch previous low 13812
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
DAX to extend it's losses?GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 13838 (stop at 13931)
Our short term bias remains negative.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
We look for losses to be extended today.
50 1day EMA is at 13900.
A break of the recent low at 13839 should result in a further move lower.
Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
Our profit targets will be 13609 and 13559
Resistance: 13950 / 14040 / 14100
Support: 13900 / 13810 / 13700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Buying DAX at market.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14302 (stop at 14229)
Daily signals are bullish.
A lower correction is expected.
20 1day EMA is at 14302.
The 1 day moving average should provide support at 14300.
We look to buy dips.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 14488 and 14538
Resistance: 14450 / 14500 / 14550
Support: 14360 / 14300 / 14200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Buying DE40 at daily 20 EMA.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14271 (stop at 14198)
Daily signals are mildly bullish.
20 1day EMA is at 14271.
We look to buy dips. Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral.
The 1 day moving average should provide support at 14271.
Our profit targets will be 14448 and 14498
Resistance: 14390 / 14450 / 14500
Support: 14300 / 14250 / 14200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, DOWN from 2.9% last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 24th percentile,
while according to VDAX, we are on 8th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.4% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14714
BOT: 13886
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14500
66% probability we are going to touch previous low 14200
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 40% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
DAX 30 Big PictureThe DAX as a ZigZag correction .
Rules of the ZigZag correction .
1. Wave A must be an impulse or Leading Diagonal Triangle ✅
2. Wave B must be any corrective pattern (ABC) ✅
3. Wave b does not correct wave A more than 99% ✅
4. Wave C must be an impulse or Ending diagonal Triangle ❓
5. Wave C must be at least 70% of wave B from a price perspective ❓
6. Wave C fails extremely rarely (strong wave C) ❓
Current course .
The DAX formed a Leading Diagonal Triangle since the beginning of 2022, which can be represented as an ABCDE or 12345 wave.
The DAX was able to break out strongly from the Leading Diagonal Triangle in recent weeks (since October), forming an abc correction.
We bounced off the upper trendline.
Further course
In the last days, the DAX shows first weaknesses and we assume that the DAX has already formed its TOP and now another downtrend follows.
If the assumption of the ZigZag correction is correct, now the DAX should form another 12345 structure to the downside, which should hold in the trend channel. There is also still the possibility that the DAX makes a final uptrend until about just above the upper trend line and only then crashes.
Depending on how the economic events will develop, we see 2 correction scenarios as likely:
1. the German or European recession comes harder than currently assumed and the DAX corrects below 10,000€.
2. the recession can be halfway cushioned and thus the financial market calms down faster and the DAX forms a bottom at around 10,500 to 11,000€.
We currently see the first possibility as more likely due to the economic environment. Interest rates will not be lowered in the foreseeable future. The real estate sector is under massive pressure. Many companies continue to struggle with the huge cost of energy and capital, and a large number of companies are still highly overvalued.
A perfect sentiment for a bear market to continue for another 6-12 months.
We will keep you posted!
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 2.98% last week according to VDAX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 1th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.94% movement
Bearish: 2.38% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14920
BOT: 14050
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
75% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14600
25% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14333
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% bullish trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend
4H timeframe indicates 66.6% bullish trend
German DAX index: Pausing for a breatherThe German Dax index rose 25% from its lows in early October, delivering nine weeks of gains and outperforming US stock indices. The bullish price action has been rather sharp for a market that had a 27% decline from its top in the first nine months of the year.
In November 2022, the Dax saw overbought RSI for the first time in over a year and the index also managed to surpass quite easily its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as a significant 50% Fibonacci threshold of 2022's low to high.
As prices now meet fierce resistance in surpassing the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 14,560 points, a pullback is possible in the following weeks.
The first area of support is located at the psychological level of 14,000. This level might serve as a solid test for validating the 50% Fibonacci level breakout occurred in November.
If the Dax fails to remain above 14,000, bears may gain impetus and push the price down below 13,500 (38.2% Fibonacci and 200-day moving average).
Currently, the strong 61.8% Fibonacci level resistance dominates the upside. If prices broke over this level, the June high of 14,700 would be the next resistance. However, with two important central banks meeting in less than two weeks (Fed on the 14 and ECB on the 15), the upside room for bulls may be limited here.
DAX two possible scenarios.DAX has at the moment two possible scenarios.
If we look fundamentally, inflation might peaked, but recession probabilities around the world are still rising.
So for me the most likely scenario to happen is the bearish one.
Use a solid money management and risk precautions before you enter the market.
DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022
We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week.
According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1th percentile.
Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be :
In case of bullish - 1.99%
In case of bearish - 2.39%
With the current IV calculation, we have currently 17.9% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above
or below the next channel:
TOP: 14900
BOT: 14000
At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week:
26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 14300
73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 14580
Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 66% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
DAX Index, coming to supply zone. GER30Hello my friends, Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. We have a bullish trend and price keeps it but the weakness in the trend is obvious and I expect supply from the resistance zone. So monitor the price's action in the circles.
Good luck.
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germ30OANDA:DE30EUR
is looking great to to upside. Momentum likely to continue to hit the take Profit.
DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.08%, raising from 3.07% of last week , according to VDAX data
(DAX Volatility Index)
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1th percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 4th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.05% movement
Bearish: 2.38% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 21.1% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14837
BOT: 13953
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
27% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14150
73% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14450
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 67% of the weekly moving averages are in a bullish trend, and
a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 37% bullish stance
dax40 sellmarket direction ;downtrend htf
inside supply zone dax started to go from uptrend to distribution phase on ltf
price creating new lows
enter at lower high
DAX INDEX AT HUGE LEVEL Hey everyone
Was wrong on my previous idea about DAX and was stopped out however I re-entered a short position on Friday and I am expecting the price to retest at lest the previous lows by Christmas.
Confirmation would be a deviation and a close below MID- LEVEL
Entry Price 14300 with a stop loss about 2% higher which make it a 6R trade if we place our target at the most recent lows.
Thanks