DAX: Neckline BreakI have been watching the DAX H&S form for a while now. This pattern has now been confirmed with a break and weekly close below the neckline.
A descending neckline indicates fundamental weakness and could imply a swift drop.
I am short with a first target in the 10,700 area, and my ultimate target under 10,000.
Dax30short
DAX Bearish Sequence Calling For More DownsideHello Traders,
DAX short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the decline to 11865.47 low ended blue wave (W). Up from there, the bounce to 12460.67 high ended blue wave (X). The internals of that bounce unfolded as a zigzag structure where red wave A ended at 12184.41 high in lesser degree 5 waves. A pullback to 12064.41 low ended red wave B in 3 swings. While a rally to 12460.67 ended red wave C in another 5 waves in lesser degree cycle & also completed blue wave (X) bounce.
Down from there, the index has made a new low below 9/11 low (11865.47) confirming the next extension lower taking place. The initial decline from 12460.67 high is unfolding in 5 waves impulse structure where black wave ((i)) ended at 12174.69 low. A bounce to 12348.86 high ended black wave ((ii)). Then a decline to 11803.19 low ended black wave ((iii)). Black wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 11998.64 high.
Currently, we are calling black wave ((v)) of red wave A complete at 11520.97 and as long as the Index stays above that level it is expected to continue wave B bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further downside is seen. We expect sellers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 12460.67 high dont like the buying of the index.
Warning! The real bear is coming soon...It's difficult to short this week which I got my SL at the beginning of this volatility... but it may have clear after several days ... and I mention the MA50 of daily chart is the key for short position... the SL should be close to MA50...
When you open your short position, please take SL with you...
The long-term chart...
Short the pullback DAXBased on the 1H chart, I see a great opportunity to hop on this strong downtrend. We probably will meet this level because of the divergence (on the 1H chart) and the support line on the monthly chart. If we fail the short at this level and it hit our stoploss, I will take another short @300 which is also mentioned in the chart. Let's hope the best traders!
DAX SHS-Formation?The DAX has been weak in the last weeks. If the index is about to fall on the support at about 11.800 points we could have a S-H-S formation, with the neckline at this level.
If the DAX would break through this neckline it could open a plummet to 10.060 Points.
In fib retracements: the left shoulder started on 61.8%, the head was the last ATH (so 100%), the right shoulder found its high at the descending trend line, slightly above the left shoulder. The neckline would be the 61.8% - fib. Taken the difference between 61.8% (11.800) to 100% (13.600) in logarithmic scale and "mirrored" to the bottom we reach the fib retracement 23.6% (10.060).
This negative trend is confirmed by the indicators RSI and MACD.
There are several support lines to be broken:
1) swing trend line (actual level)
2) ascending trend line (dotted)
3) each fib retracement (without the 50% fib, cause it hasn´t had a value in the past)
Before positioning one should wait and see if the S-H-S formation will be formed or not.
This is no trading advice!
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis: Bounce Can Be TemporaryHello Traders,
In this short-term analysis, we will have a look at the German DAX Index.
DAX short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the rally to 12882.05 high ended red wave X bounce. The internals of that bounce unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where black wave ((w)) ended at 12640.87. Black wave ((x)) ended at 12468.68 and black wave ((y)) of red X ended at 12882.05 high.
Down from there, DAX is currently suggesting that it is unfolding as a potential 5 waves structure. Where blue wave (i) ended at 02/08/18 low (12491.53), blue wave (ii) pullback at 07/08/18 peak (12740.66), and blue wave (iii) at 08/13/18 low (12321.45). Currently, it is in the progress of making a pullback in blue wave (iv) before extending 1 more leg lower in blue wave (v) before a 3 waves bounce higher can be seen. We don’t like selling it.
DAX Bigger Picture View Head And Shoulders FormationI had a few ideas removed from the site as there were links in the descriptions. I am re-posting those Ideas without the links.
This is a good setup on the DAX 0.38% for those who trade patterns like H&S . The slight downward slope on the neckline is usually a good sign that the pattern will be reliable as a trend change pattern. This will obviously take some time to play out but the target to the downside of this pattern is a nice round number as well.
I will use formations on lower time frames to enter positions on this instrument.
Contact me via direct message for any assistance
Cheers
LInton
DAX setting up for break of key 12600 levelMain bearish outlook--
Another break of the long term rising trendline is bearish
Shallow rebound from 12610 low on June 19 has ended- setting up re-test and likely break of 12600
Next key support could be 12400
Bullish alternative
12600 level holds, maintaining trading range enrivonment
(level is significant because it was resistance after the February sell-off and support after the move to 13200)