Dax30short
Wiser Look - Wider viewHi traders. weekend is here. time to relax and look back.
They say older people are wiser, since they know what happened in the past, hence they git a wider view.
Weekly chart we can see a great divergence, meaning we should welcome the BEARS are enjoy the downhill ride.
It doesn't mean it will happen on Monday, but bear in mind - it will come sooner then later.
and when the bears will hit, it will be painful.
targets are as always the 0.618% fib retrace.
BUT, we gotta keep respect Daxi, and price action. so looking at daily time frame will be our helping hand.
Enjoy your weekend !
Short DAX Immediately1. Technical analysis:
- The minimum increase level for an Inverted H&S pattern has already reached.
- Polls have suggested that Macron will easily win the election since last week, this has already price in on DAX. It is basic knowledge that the investors will sell off for taking profit when some hopes become true. I don't understand why some people say that DAX will go higher if Macron wins. For myself, DAX will goes lower if Macron wins.
- VIX for global markets has recorded historical low at 9.8 recently. There are 19 times that the VIX has been in single digit since 1990's. It indicates that most investors are over optimistic, they make money easily by holding longs on indices and securities. Not many investors are holding shorts and they do not believe the trend can be reverse.
2. Political and Geographic analysis:
- If you study Economics, you'll certainly understand that Macron won the presidential election of France is actually a disaster for global markets.
3. Investors' Psychological analysis:
- I observed that there are more and more people become very greedy and over optimistic. Some people mentioned that "DAX has entered uncharted area and I guess it will go up to 16000". This is always a signal for trend reversal.
DAX Overbought but eyes are still on 13000Using 2 hour bars you can see 2017 performance and a regression channel that puts the steady rally higher into a relative context.
Each time price reached its upper channel it pulled back within two weeks. The pullback is around 3%.
But with 13000 a key level only 2% away, we could see a swift leg up before pulling.
Idea; sell 3m calls at 13000 or set sell limit order at 13000.
DAX: Massive, 2 year, double top. There is something special cooking in the EU. Dax is at a 2 year double top (exactly), it can be seen well on its weekly chart.
May will be an important month to the Euro, we have the French elections, the second and final round will take place.
Resistance can be seen in the last week weeks, but this week is different, sentimental movements have caused DAX to head to a new high but as things stand, it will not last long. A crash is coming.
The second round is on the 7th of May, I have entered a scout position with the idea for it to become a trend trade.
More updates coming.