DAX Stock Index Rises Over 20% Year-to-DateDAX Stock Index Rises Over 20% Year-to-Date
The German DAX 40 index (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) is showing significantly stronger performance than other major global stock indices as of the end of May. For comparison, since the beginning of 2025:
→ The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has remained largely flat;
→ The S&P 500 is down by 1%;
→ Japan’s Nikkei 225 has fallen by approximately 4.5%.
Why Is Germany’s Stock Index Climbing?
The rally may be driven by a combination of factors, including:
→ An ambitious fiscal stimulus programme launched by the German government, featuring substantial public investment in defence and infrastructure development.
→ A dovish monetary policy stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) amid slowing inflation. Expectations of further interest rate cuts in 2025 have made equities more attractive than bonds, drawing capital into the stock market.
Technical Analysis of the DAX 40 Chart
These fundamental drivers have supported the formation of an upward trend channel (marked in blue), with the median line acting as a key area of support.
The DAX stock index experienced a sharp drop on Friday (highlighted by the arrow) after the US President unexpectedly announced 50% tariffs on EU imports, citing slow progress in trade negotiations. By Sunday, however, Trump postponed the tariffs until 9 June following a “constructive conversation” with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Since then, the price has:
→ Rebounded from the lower boundary of the channel, which is reinforced by support at the 23,350.0 level;
→ Approached the 24,100 level — a strong resistance zone this month.
Given the uncertainty sparked by Trump’s impulsive policy shifts, investors may be shifting capital from US to European markets, further supporting the DAX 40’s position as a leader among global stock indices.
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Dax40forecast
Quarter Ends, Setup Begins: Long from DAX Support ZoneDAX returned to its major support zone around 22,000 after an extended decline through March. I’ve been triggered into a long position as we step into a fresh month and quarter. We’re sitting at strong historical demand with multiple macro events lined up this week—I’ll take what the market gives and manage it accordingly. No ego here, just flow with the setup. Let’s see where this one heads as NFP and PMI data come in.
Technicals
• Timeframe: 1H
• Entry Zone: Strong support retest at 22,000
• Setup: Long triggered on reaction from major support
• Target: Zone around 22,950
• SL: Below the support zone (~21,800)
• Fibcloud: Still trending below, watching for reclaim
• End-of-month rebalancing and Quarter close may add volatility.
Fundamentals
• DAX dropped nearly 2% on Monday, hitting its lowest levels since Feb 10, in line with global market weakness.
• US trade tariff uncertainty under Trump’s “reciprocal” rhetoric weighs on sentiment.
• Germany’s CPI eased to 2.2%, the lowest since Nov 2024, aligning with market expectations.
• Q1 performance remains strong overall, up nearly 11%, supported by Germany’s spending plan.
• Eyes on this week’s NFP and PMI data which could drive further price action.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
GDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaTheres a full video analysis posted before this.
The DAX 40's recent bullish surge reveals signs of exhaustion on the monthly and weekly charts. Lower timeframes suggest a manipulative price structure primed for a potential trend reversal.
Here's the breakdown:
- Overextension: Extended trends often succumb to corrections or shifts in direction. The DAX 40 appears ripe for such a move.
- Liquidity Engineering: The 4-hour and daily price action hints at manipulation. The downside breakout followed by a stop-loss raid indicates possible accumulation to fuel a bearish move.
- Reversal Pattern: This market behavior aligns with recurring reversal setups I've observed consistently throughout my trading experience.
Trade Idea
- Direction: Short (with the potential for significant downside)
- Timeframe: Expect bearish momentum through February and March.
- Monitor: Watch for validation on lower timeframes (e.g., a bearish break of the current range).
- Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Before making any trades, perform your own in-depth research and exercise prudent risk management.
GDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaGDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade Idea
The DAX 40's recent bullish surge reveals signs of exhaustion on the monthly and weekly charts. Lower timeframes suggest a manipulative price structure primed for a potential trend reversal.
Here's the breakdown:
- Overextension: Extended trends often succumb to corrections or shifts in direction. The DAX 40 appears ripe for such a move.
- Liquidity Engineering: The 4-hour and daily price action hints at manipulation. The downside breakout followed by a stop-loss raid indicates possible accumulation to fuel a bearish move.
- Reversal Pattern: This market behavior aligns with recurring reversal setups I've observed consistently throughout my trading experience.
Trade Idea
- Direction: Short (with the potential for significant downside)
- Timeframe: Expect bearish momentum through February and March.
- Monitor: Watch for validation on lower timeframes (e.g., a bearish break of the current range).
- Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Before making any trades, perform your own in-depth research and exercise prudent risk management.
Dax to be supported soonI am looking at the possibility of a potential flat in wave 2 as we keep falling in what could be a wave {c}. Equality of wave {c} vs.{a} is where I would like to start seeing some support and that would be at the beginning of the golden box.
Feel free to ask question, trade safe!