DAX - ☕DAX - ☕
One of my most favourite patterns! Cup & Handle pattern - Inverse!
I've back tested this pattern many times and it never has failed me with the correct amount of risk etc. What states on your plan, that's the greatest importance.
Highs: 15420
Lows: 15280
A break above the highs this trade plan is no longer valid. A break below the lows I expect the continuation of bearish price action to continue and breaks below the trendline then we may go towards 200 EMA area.
Have a great week ahead,
Trade Journal
Key tip: Ignore the noise
Daxanalysis
DAX Full Analysis From Monthly To 4H TF, Next Move Expectations This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
DAX's bullish momentum continues to stall.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 15163 (stop at 15253)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Trend line resistance is located at 15170.
Bespoke resistance is located at 15150.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Our profit targets will be 14943 and 14903
Resistance: 15150 / 15221 / 15272
Support: 15066 / 15000 / 14950
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX vx SP500: Is DAX highly over valued?By comparing the charts of US indexes vs European indexes we usuallly find pretty much the same patterns.
However there is something that really caught my attention, compare the monthly chart of sp500 vs Dax:
DAX is only 6,54% from all time highs of 2022
SP500 is 15,40% from its all time highs of 2022.
NASDAQ is 28,45% from it's all time highs of 2022
This difference is obviously linked to the different policies of central banks, however I wonder if such a huge difference is justified.
German economy has been highly struck by energy prices and German inflation is still 8,5% vs 6,5% in the US.
Potential swing trade short on the DAX?Like many indices, the DAX has enjoyed a strong start to the year after a dismal ‘Santa’s rally’. But after a 9% rally this month and early signs of a potential top, perhaps it is time for the DAX to pull back from its highs.
If we look at the daily chart, the market formed a small top and daily close below 15,000. Whilst prices are back above the milestone level, upside volatility is lacking and there are now the early signs of a lower high with yesterday’s bearish outside day. Perhaps we have seen the end of a wave b, which is part of a 3-wave countertrend move.
• Futures markets point to a soft open for the cash market today
• The bias is bearish below 15,200 / yesterday’s high
• A 100% projection / wave equality is around 14,800 and 20-day EMA, making it a viable target for bears
• A break below 14,800 brings 14,700 / December high into focus
DAX on its way to our first target DAX formed a Massive Falling wedge in 2022.
Remember a Falling Wedge is >1 month... A Pennant is < 1 Month
The 7 >21 >200MA and the RSI is well above 50 showing upside to come.
The target remains at 16,375
HOLD - BULLISH\
The January Effect where investors and institutions are still buying stocks and assets to start the year. They have offset their taxes and are now piling into the markets that they believe will run up.
Hence the global rally.
Also, Inflation seems to have hit its peak for now (with America CPI dropping to 6.5% this week). These are all good factors for a strong economy.
DAX to stall at overbought extremes.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 15119 (stop at 151201)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Bearish divergence can be seen on the daily chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
Our profit targets will be 14909 and 14879
Resistance: 15128 / 15200 / 15300
Support: 15050 / 14950 / 14830
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX heading into a 44-week high.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14702 (stop at 14619)
Our short term bias remains positive.
Prices look to be heading towards a new 44 week high.
A lower correction is expected.
20 4 hour EMA is at 14701.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 14898 and 14938
Resistance: 14886 / 15000 / 15100
Support: 14800 / 14700 / 14625
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.85%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.37% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 15095
BOT: 14218
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
73% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done)
26.5% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
DAX - Where to next?DAX - Where to next?
What a clean chart... I don't expect any movement on this until mid week roughly
A break to either direction.
Don't forget to follow your own trade plan!
Have a great week ahead,
Trade Journal
DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis
Currently the volatility for DAX is at 6.28%, up from 6.13% last month.
From the volatility current percentile we are located on 57th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:
Bullish : 5.686%
Bearish : 5.885%
With this in mind we have currently 84.1% that the market is going to stay within the next channel
TOP Limit: 14850
BOT Limit: 13135
If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :
34.43% to hit the previous monthly high
57.86% to hit the previous monthly low
Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently
Weekly Timeframe : 40% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
Monthly Timeframe : 66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
DAX40 Break out or fake out?Gm
Today we opened DAX,with a gap which has been closed few hours later, and now we’re looking at price action near psychological level - 14 000.
Bullish:
(Higher low and support at point of control? ~13885?)
In this moment I’m checking if price action forming triangle pattern and if it could break out and boost price from current level to ~14160 and even ~14220 where for me is a key level resistance point at this moment.
Relative strength index line tested SMA from above and it’s going upward direction, but i have attention to lower times frames which do not give me right signs (RSI should cross SMA -15m/30m, bearish engulfing bar at 15m wasn't right sign.)
Still waiting for more bullish confirmations in short term on price action.
Bearish:
In the other hand we have price action rejected at 0.618 fibonacci level and if this a local triangle formation it could get back to 13870 where was prominent demand, and as we can assume – double bottom with a candle weak confirming value area low.
We are still under moving average ribbon and momentum still pressure for downward.
Short term:
Lower than 0.381 fibo → price going down 13 880/ 13 800
Higher than 0.618 fibo → going up 14 150/ 14 300
My prediction for now is mostly downward. But first I’ll wait to see what happens at drawed white triangle edge line. Then what will have place at 13 880 and 13 800 price levels. Anyway I don’t expect to price go higher than 200 moving average at 1h timeframe.
Buying DAX at market.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14302 (stop at 14229)
Daily signals are bullish.
A lower correction is expected.
20 1day EMA is at 14302.
The 1 day moving average should provide support at 14300.
We look to buy dips.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 14488 and 14538
Resistance: 14450 / 14500 / 14550
Support: 14360 / 14300 / 14200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX 30 Big PictureThe DAX as a ZigZag correction .
Rules of the ZigZag correction .
1. Wave A must be an impulse or Leading Diagonal Triangle ✅
2. Wave B must be any corrective pattern (ABC) ✅
3. Wave b does not correct wave A more than 99% ✅
4. Wave C must be an impulse or Ending diagonal Triangle ❓
5. Wave C must be at least 70% of wave B from a price perspective ❓
6. Wave C fails extremely rarely (strong wave C) ❓
Current course .
The DAX formed a Leading Diagonal Triangle since the beginning of 2022, which can be represented as an ABCDE or 12345 wave.
The DAX was able to break out strongly from the Leading Diagonal Triangle in recent weeks (since October), forming an abc correction.
We bounced off the upper trendline.
Further course
In the last days, the DAX shows first weaknesses and we assume that the DAX has already formed its TOP and now another downtrend follows.
If the assumption of the ZigZag correction is correct, now the DAX should form another 12345 structure to the downside, which should hold in the trend channel. There is also still the possibility that the DAX makes a final uptrend until about just above the upper trend line and only then crashes.
Depending on how the economic events will develop, we see 2 correction scenarios as likely:
1. the German or European recession comes harder than currently assumed and the DAX corrects below 10,000€.
2. the recession can be halfway cushioned and thus the financial market calms down faster and the DAX forms a bottom at around 10,500 to 11,000€.
We currently see the first possibility as more likely due to the economic environment. Interest rates will not be lowered in the foreseeable future. The real estate sector is under massive pressure. Many companies continue to struggle with the huge cost of energy and capital, and a large number of companies are still highly overvalued.
A perfect sentiment for a bear market to continue for another 6-12 months.
We will keep you posted!
DAX Falling wedge upside in tact to 16,375DAX has been moving in a strong Falling Wedge this year.
Since it broke up and out of it, we've seen the Moving Averages cross and look bullish.
7 >21 >200
My first target remains at the previous high (start of the wedge).
Target 16,375
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 2.98% last week according to VDAX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 1th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.94% movement
Bearish: 2.38% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14920
BOT: 14050
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
75% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14600
25% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14333
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% bullish trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend
4H timeframe indicates 66.6% bullish trend
DAX two possible scenarios.DAX has at the moment two possible scenarios.
If we look fundamentally, inflation might peaked, but recession probabilities around the world are still rising.
So for me the most likely scenario to happen is the bearish one.
Use a solid money management and risk precautions before you enter the market.
Mercedes Benz: They see me rollin' 🚨 Mercedes Benz is back on track and working its way up to get to the green target zone between 67.31€ and 74.77€ to complete green wave . Thereafter, we expect the course to drop into a superior correction below the support line at 56.52€.
DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022
We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week.
According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1th percentile.
Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be :
In case of bullish - 1.99%
In case of bearish - 2.39%
With the current IV calculation, we have currently 17.9% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above
or below the next channel:
TOP: 14900
BOT: 14000
At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week:
26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 14300
73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 14580
Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 66% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022
Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.22%, down from 3.33% of last week.
From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 0.5th from ATR and 17th from VDAX index.
With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be:
1.99% for bullish
2.49% for bearish
With the current IV, we can expect with a 81.8% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 14772
BOT: 13820
Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have:
74% to hit the previous weekly high of 14250
27% to hit the previous weekly low of 13380
DAX price prediction by EWA/EWP in Global aspect.Hello!
DAX price prediction by EWA/EWP in Global aspect.
( 3-rd alternative in bullish scenario. )
German DAX trending higher Daily Insight
Commentary:
Monday - German Industrial Production m/m beats forecast this follows Friday’s strong September factory orders data
German DAX +12% since October 13th
Higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicates short term uptrend taking shape (daily chart) , however resistance in front of current price may push price lower before continuing any further advance.
Current price 13,441
Key resistance at 13,555 , a break above resistance places 13,750 in sight for longs with a short term view (5 to 25 days), while short sellers may be aiming for a retest of the 12,950 support spotted at the 38.2% retracement from the 4 week high.
DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022
We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.45% which declined from 3.59% last week.
Currently according to ATR we are on 36th percentile, and according to DVOL we are on 15th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a quiet market.
And as a matter of fact we can that this was case for the last weeks but at the same time , one has to be aware that during this "quiet times", things can change radically.
Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details.
We can see that currently there is 18.2% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel
TOP: 13880
BOT: 12920
This can also be translated as a 81.8% chance that the market is going to move within this established range.
At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a
73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 13500
26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 13000
