DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.3%, increasing from 7.18% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 70th percentile according to ATR and 91th according to VDAX.
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 5.3%
BULLISH Candle : 5.14%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 16% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 12385
TOP: 14302
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 13300 (already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 11900
Daxanalysis
DAX Breakout or Breakdown?The DAX has rallied significantly since the end of September after touching a major support range at 11,550 - 11,850 - the area that price bottomed in November of 2020
It is now pressuring the downtrend extending from the yearly highs and could be poised to break higher
A convincing close above downtrend resistance would provide a great buying opportunity with near-term targets at 13,570 and 13,950
However, if trend resistance holds firm, a continued downside push looks likely, with a great opportunity to sell and chase price back to yearly lows
DAX: Startle ReflexesWe don’t know what has startled DAX so much that it has jumped upwards and has come quite close to the mark at 12425 points again – maybe, someone tested its startle reflexes… However, the index is already back on track and should continue to move downwards into the pink zone between 11421 and 11060 points to finish wave III in pink, which it could also do in the slightly lower and larger blue zone between 11352 and 10828. Afterwards, DAX should perform a countermovement into the upper pink zone between 12129 and 13066 points, before dropping into the big green zone to complete the overarching downwards movement. Indeed, wave 2 in green could also end in the blue zone between 9980 and 9456 points, which provides a little bit more room southwards.
Daily analysis & day trading setups DAX DAX40 DE30EUR 09 SEP 22Happy Friday,
DAX keeps entering and failing the zone starting at 12928. Yesterday's key levels are still in play. You can find it by clicking here (Opens in a new tab/windows so you will not lose this)
In the absence of a catalytic news, it is likely to post an inside daily bar. So today's range is constrained by yesterday's OHLC
Macro EU ECB Lagarde Speech, CAD Unemployment Rate, US Fed Waller Speech
Buy
Break: 12 975, 13 030, 091
Reversal: 12 855, 785, 678, 617, 554
Sell
Break: 12 871, 797, 695
Reversal: 12 991, 13 044, 108, 160
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis & day trading setups DAX DAX40 DE30EUR 08 SEP 22Happy Thursday,
Market will be nitpicking at the coordinated CB speeches today so get ready for some choppiness and sideways moves
DAX has 12928 to 13154 range with mid zone at 49 to 55
In case of extreme moves beyond buying & selling levels
↗️ Upside key levels: 13 052, 125, 197, 294 & 432
↘️ Downside key levels: 12 955, 817, 678, 582, 509
Macro EU ECB Monetary Policy Decision, Lagarde Speech, US Jobless Claims, Fed Powell Speech, CAD BoC Rogers Speech
Buy
Break: 13 055, 93, 145, 215
Reversal: 12 975, 920, 860, 786, 718
Sell
Break: 12 993, 936, 871, 805
Reversal: 13 108, 163, 229, 288
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis & day trading setups - DAX DAX40 DE30EUR 20220831Happy month end, Happy Midweek, Happy Wednesday,
Bulls have managed to regain 13k overnight. So 13k is line in the sand. 13 125 now is the key level on the upside. Any break below 12 850 will confirm bear strength.
Last day of the volatime month.
Macro EU DE Unemployment, HICP, US Employment Change, Chicago PMI
Buy
Break: 13 045, 088, 110, 150
Reversal: 12 998, 935, 850, 815, 738, 690
Sell
Break: 13 013, 12 942, 870, 810, 775
Reversal: 13 094, 125, 154, 219, 290
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
DAX: HiccupsLooks like DAX has the hiccups, the way it is hopping about nervously. We don’t know what has affected its stomach – maybe it is the fact that the index is still indecisive about wave (2) in white. Apparently, it has not yet determined whether it has already completed wave (2) in white or wants to finish it a bit lower still, before resuming the overarching ascent. However, there is only room until the support at 12425 points, as below this mark, our secondary scenario with a probability of 40% would come into play. In that case, DAX would have to take a detour through the green zone between 12140 and 11150 points first, before rising again.
Daily analysis & day trading setups on DAX DE30EUR 20220819Happy Friday, Happy Janmashtami,
After Wednesday's big move, yesterday was an inside bar. So 13600 becomes line in the sand.
Bears want to regain control <13600 & bulls want to go back >13740
Macro No news is good news ?!
Buy
Break: 13 660, 780, 815
Reversal: 13 580, 530, 450, 370
Sell
Break: 13 585, 535, 460
Reversal: 13 670, 745, 820, 870
I regularly publish my daily analysis & trading plan for day trading setups. The links are here:
NASDAQ
DAX
SPX
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling DaxTrade Idea: Selling Dax
Reasoning: Bearish outside day, looking for selloff to be extended
Entry Level: 13682.0
Take Profit Level: 13512.0
Stop Loss: 13724.0
Risk/Reward: 4.05:1
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Daily analysis and day trading setups on DAX Ger30 20220816Happy Tuesday,
Line in the sand for Dax is 13850. However, for the rally to continue 13900 has to break. Bulls need to defend 13810 & 13780. Bears need to take out 13730
Macro : EU/DE Zew Survey, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, CAD CPI
Buy
Break: 13860, 13920, 14010, 14070
Reversal: 13800, 13740, 13690, 13600
Sell
Break: 13820, 13760, 13710
Reversal: 13945, 14030, 14085, 14120, 14150
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis and day trading setups on DAX Ger30 20220815Happy Independence Day to all my Indian brothers & sisters,
It is peak of summer vacation in Europe so expect choppy jumpy moves
Macro Nothing of great significance today
Line in the sand for DAX is 13830. A break below will bring some selling. A move above 13870 may start another run.
Buy
Break: 13875, 13955, 13990, 14030
Reversal: 13795, 13715, 13645, 13565
Sell
Break: 13805, 13725, 13650
Reversal: 13970, 14000, 14040, 14120, 14200
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis and day trading setups on DAX Ger30 20220812Happy Friday,
Bulls are trying to reach for 14k handle while bears are barely holding their shorts (full on pun intended)
Line in the sand for DAX today is 13580
Macro EU Industrial Production, GB GDP Estimate, US Michigan Cons. Sentiment Index
Buy
Break: 13690, 13760, 13830
Reversal: 13660, 13580, 13520, 13430
Sell
Break: 13670, 13600, 13530, 13430
Reversal: 13710, 13770, 13840, 13870, 13940, 14k
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis and trade setups on DAX Ger30 20220810Happy Midweek, Happy CPI Day,
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis, DAX not being able to hold above 13680 was ominous
Now a sustained move below 13440, break of 13300 will open it up to 12920. Will it happen today, we will see
It still has chance to gain back above 13680
13530 is the line in the sand today
Macro : DE HICP, US CPI
Buy
Break: 13550, 13630, 13685, 13740
Reversal: 13450, 13390, 13350, 13280, 13220
Sell
Break: 13460, 13400, 13370, 13300
Reversal: 13645, 13690, 13750, 13810, 13840
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
Daily analysis and trade setups on DAX Ger30 20220809Happy Tuesday
Macro: US Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs
DAX not being able to hold 13680 and reach for 13780 is very ominous
The consolidation continues with no direction yet.
Line in the sand today is 13660
Buy
Break: 13640, 13760, 13840, 13860
Reversal: 13640, 13450, 13390, 13325, 13200
Sell
Break: 13650, 13550, 13460, 13400
Reversal: 13775, 13840, 13875, 13930, 13975
Green Goblin levels are here >>>
Confluence chart is here >>>
Daily analysis and trade setups on DAX Ger30 20220808Happy New Week, Happy Monday,
Nothing significant on economic calendar today. With academic vacation & summer in full swing, markets may range unless some geopolitical development happens.
DAX is likely to 13580 & 13770. Breaking of those H or L will bring some movements.
Today's line in the sand is 13620.
Buy
Break: 13680, 13750, 13820
Reversal: 13575, 13540, 13470, 13410, 13330
Sell
Break: 13610, 13585, 13550, 13480, 13420
Reversal: 13700, 13770, 13830, 13900, 13975
Green Goblin levels are here >>
Confluence levels are here >>