Daxforecast
DAX INDEX….TO FALL for 162 pointsPrior to the market crush, I’m expecting the Dax Index to rise to 14100 and expect my further sell to 13900. Fibonacci wise!
DAX: Popeye ⚓️“I’m strong to the “finich”, ‘cause I eats me spinach”, that’s the motto of Popeye the Sailor Man. He gets strength from eating spinach, which he conveniently carries with him in cans all the time. DAX has also taken a mouthful from the green spinach can between 13981 and 13385 points to gain strength for its long way upwards. We expect the index to surmount the mark at 14663 points soon and to continue the ascent above 16295 points from there.
DAX: Step by Step🪜Currently, DAX is neatly following the step-by-step plan we calculated for it. The index has touched at the white strip between 13404 and 13225 points and has already started to move upwards, crossing 13782 points. Although it could still go back into the white strip more strongly to complete wave (4) in white, it could be finished with it just as well and could directly continue its way to the upper white zone between 14319 and 14589 points. To achieve this scenario, though, DAX must not fall below 12425 points. Otherwise, it would have to make a detour through the lower green zone between 12074 and 11776 points first. There is a 30% chance that this alternative scenario could come true.
DAX: “Drop It Like It’s Hot” It seems like DAX has been listening to Snoop Dogg far too much, because it has plunged into the magenta zone between 14392 and 13805 points, as if to say “Drop it like it’s hot”. However, we expect DAX to pop out of the magenta zone again “like it’s hot”. It should then rise back above the support at 14795 points and aim for the resistance at 16295 points from there. Still, a 45% chance remains that DAX could drop below 13805 points instead and fall until the bottom of the turquoise zone between 13951 and 13227 points before making it upwards again.
DAX: Caution – danger of slipping ⚠️Could somebody please hand DAX some chalk? Its damp hands could definitely do with a bit more grip over here. On its way to the resistance at 15711 points, the index has slipped off again, but luckily did not fall too deep. Right now, it has already picked itself up from the upper edge of the white zone between 15282 and 14933 points, trying to normalize its accelerated heart rate. We expect DAX to recover further and to continue its ascent. If it manages to climb above the resistance at 15711 points, it should rise even farther up to 16295 points.
If DAX loses its strength though, and tumbles below 14829 points, there is a 40% chance that it could make a detour through the magenta-colored zone between 14392 and 13805 points before hauling itself up above 14829 points again and resuming the upwards movement.
DAX: Eye of the Tiger 🥊🥊 Dam damdamdam damdamdam damdamdaaam
Dam damdamdam damdamdam damdamdaaam
“Rising up, back on the street,
Did my time, took my chances,
Went the distance, now I’m back on my feet,
Just a man and his will to survive”
The Survivor-song seems to be playing in the background, while DAX is battling its way back to the resistance at 15711 points. Like Silvester Stallone in “Rocky III”, the index is striving for a comeback above 15711 points and higher still. We expect its ambitions to be successful. The index should ascend until 16295 points to finish wave i in orange. Then, after a short countermovement back to about 15711 points, a long-term rise above 16295 points should follow.
If the workout is too tough, though, there is a 35% chance that DAX could make a detour. If it falls below 14795 points, the index could initially descend into the magenta zone between 14392 and 13805 points before starting its comeback in earnest. It should then zoom above 14795 points again, from where its power should suffice to aim for higher goals.
DAX Forecast: Continues to Consolidate Around 200 Day EMAThe German index continues to bounce around the 200 day EMA as we have seen a lot of consolidation in this general vicinity. The 200 day EMA is obviously an indicator that a lot of technical traders will jump on, as it continues to be an area that longer-term traders pay close attention to. Furthermore, when you look at this chart, you can see that we have gone back and forth just above the €15,000 level, an area that obviously would be somewhat attractive for traders as well.
When you look at this chart, you can see we are trying to build a bit of a basing pattern, and if we can take out the €15,500 level, I think it is very likely that we go looking towards the €16,000 level again. Ultimately, the market will have to decide whether or not the lock down situation in Germany is going to roll over the cliff, or if we are going to turn around and rally. At this point, the reaction has been somewhat positive, so one would have to think it is probably only a matter of time before we grind higher. After all, we had recently sold off quite drastically only to go sideways, which is the first step in getting things turned around.
That being said, if we were to break down below the €14,900 level, then it could send this market much lower, perhaps down to the €14,000 level. The DAX is going to be just as sensitive to risk appetite as many other indices, despite the fact that Germany is considered to be the “blue-chip index” of the European Union. A cheap euro certainly helps the idea of exports, which the DAX is full of when it comes to large multinational corporations.
One thing is for sure, if the DAX sells off again, nothing good could happen to other indices such as the IBEX, MIB, and other smaller indices on the continent. If this market does rally, those very same indices will be where traders look to next in order to find some type of return. As things stand right now, we have pulled back to a serious support level, and so far, it seems to be doing its job. It is a little early to call it a victory, but it certainly is starting to act like the buyers are willing to step in.