DAX - (massive!) Short; This is a no-brainer!Germany decided to systematically destroy their (and the EU's) economy, in a consistent and spectacular fashion. This is a no-brainer!! (I have been shorting this, with everything I've got, for the past week.) The only thing that kept this thing afloat, so far, is the underlying currency (EUR/USD) push-pull. I believe that is now over and full capitulation is at hand.
Where will this mayhem stop? ... Well, it depends on the maximum pain tolerance of the combined German industrial base.
Will they let their government fully destroy their entire economy or will they put a stop to it, at some point? ... Right now, I don't care!
The damage is already done, the only question remaining; Just how bad?
Sell, sell, sell ... and then, Short some more!
Daxfutures
DAX holding the MA50 (1d) can push it to a new High.DAX has completed 7 days of consolidation on the MA50 (1d).
This kind of sideways trading on Supports is usually a technical accumulation before a price jump.
There have already been two similar price jumps that formed Higher Highs inside the 8-month Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 16600 (Rising Resistance).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is rebounding on its Falling Support, same as during the previous Higher Lows of the Channel Up (March 17th 2023 and December 16th 2022).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX Lower Low to come after this quick rebound. Sell.DAX is recovering today from yesterday's brutal break down but this should be a short lived reaction.
The 1day RSI made a Double Bounce on a Falling Support, much like the one on March 13th.
On that price action, after a short lived rebound that got rejected on the 1day MA50 and the 0.5 Fibonacci, the price resumed the downtrend and bottomed on the 1.5 Fibonacci level.
Take advantage of this quick rebound for a better sell entry and target 15100, which happens to be also at the bottom of the long term Channel Up and the 1day MA200 (which is intact since November 10th).
Previous chart:
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DAX: Entered a short term accumulation phase ahead of the next rDAX hit the 4H MA200 again after a much needed technical pull back that helped at correcting last week's overbought technicals on the 4H time frame (RSI = 48.684, MACD = 21.500, ADX = 34.751). This is a similar structure as early June, when the 4H MA200 (and 0.382 Fibonacci) offered support to a 4 day accumulation phase before the bullish leg made a Higher High on the Channel Up pattern.
We are entering a new buy on the current market price, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 16,500).
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DAX First strong buy signal after 1 monthDAX is testing the MA50 (1d) following a rebound on the MA100 (1d).
That was also the bottom of the short term dashed Channel Up as well as the medium term yellow Channel Up.
Technically this is the strongest buy opportunity since May 31st.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when a (1d) candle closes above the MA50 (1d).
2. Sell if it closes under the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 16500 (top of the short term Channel Up).
2. 15450 (bottom of the long term dotted Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit its Rising Support level. Additional buy indication.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX is rebounding on the 1day MA100. Bullish.DAX is on the 2nd straight green day after the rebound on the 1day MA100. That was also a Higher Low at the bottom of the mid-March Channel Up.
Buy and target Resistance A (16440).
Sell if a 1day candle closes under the 1day MA100 and target the bottom of the December 2022 Channel Up at 15310, where you can take an even lower risk buy.
Previous chart:
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DAX: Two buy entries for the long term.DAX turned technically bearish on the 1D time frame (RSI = 42.479, MACD = 3.900, ADX = 32.769) with the RSI approaching the lows of March 17th. This is our first long term buy entry as the price is not only at the bottom of the (blue) short term Channel Up but also testing the 1D MA100 for the first time since March 20th.
If the price closes a 1D candle under the 1D MA100, it will most likely fail to hold the S1 and S2 supports as well and instead go for a full -6.70% decline extension to 15,350 such as the mid March and mid December correction legs. That will be the second buy entry. In both cases our target is the short term Channel's HH (TP = 16,500).
Pay attention to the RSI also where the bottom of the Channel Up will be an additional buy signal.
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DAX Sell signal but gets invalidated on this levelDAX is on a 2-day pullback with a new (dashed) Channel Up emerging.
The index is already inside two long term Channel Up patterns.
The RSI (1d) crossed under its MA level, calling for a technical pullback inside the borders of these Channel Up patterns.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price remains under Resistance (1).
2. Buy if it breaks above it.
Targets:
1. 15740 (bottom on two Channel Up patterns).
2. 16950 (top on two Channel Up patterns).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has a Rising Support. Keep that in mind as if it holds you might consider closing the short position earlier.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX: Holding today's low can lead to 16,500DAX is trading inside multiple short and long term Channel Up patterns, an indication of a strong bullish trend, showcased by the green 1D technicals (RSI = 59.394, MACD = 107.100, ADX = 32.591). As long as the 1D RSI stays over the MA line, we remain bullish (TP = 16,500). If it breaks under it, we will target first the dashed Channel bottom (TP1 = 16,000) and after a 1D candle close under it, extend to S1 (TP2 = 15,635).
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DAX One last pump to 16600.DAX is on the 4th green 1day candle in a row, extending the spot on buy entry we gave 2 weeks ago exactly at the bottom.
The 1day RSI is on balance bullish levels (62.31) and shows still upside potential while there is still room left before the Channel Up makes a Higher High.
That will be at a +6.30% rise from the Low, as previously taken place.
Target remains at 16600.
Previous chart:
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DAX holding the 1day MA50, ready for a rally.DAX is holding the 1day MA50 Support for the 5th candle in a row. This keeps the Channel Up intact, with the price near its bottom.
The 1day RSI is on a consolidation under the MA trendline same with late March.
That was the same price consolidation after a Channel Up bottom. The price rallied by +6.34% from that level.
Buy and target 16600. If the 1day candle though closes under the 1day MA100, sell and target 15200.
Previous chart:
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DAX: Beam us up, Mr. Scott! 🖖Happy Birthday, William Shatner! Consistent with the great day of the actor playing Captain James T. Kirk in Star Trek , DAX was also beamed up – and considerably so. From the low of wave iv in pink, the index has shot upwards by about 5% and should still continue the ascent above the resistance line at 15 703 points, where it should complete wave 1 in blue. However, a 35% chance remains that DAX could slip below the support line at 14 617 points. In that case, the index would first develop wave alt.iv in pink to establish a new low in the pink zone between 14 299 and 13 863 points before moving upwards again.
DAX going straight for its All Time High!DAX held the MA50 (1D) and is rising aggressively.
Such aggressive rise was seen at the start of both bottom rallies within its Channel Up pattern.
As long it doesn't diverge much from its MA100 (1D) in the future, DAX is in for an extremely strong rally.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 16300 (the All Time High).
2. 16750 (Fibonacci 1.786), assuming a pull-back happens that doesn't break the MA100 (1D).
Tips:
1. The Higher Highs of the Channel have been Lower Lows during the Bear Cycle. High symmetry between the Cycles.
2. High Symmetry also from Low-to-Low inside the Channel Up. 78 days the first and 72 days the second.
3. RSI (1) on a Rising Support. You can use this to enter upon pull backs.
DAX giving two excellent tradesDAX is inside a long term Channel Up pattern.
The price volatility in 2023 can be seen as a mini Rising Wedge on a Rising Support.
A similar Wedge was at the start of the Channel Up. When it broke, the MA50 1D got hit.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the Rising Support and Fibonacci 0.5
2. Buy on the MA50 1D if the Rising Support breaks.
Targets:
1. 15600 (under Resistance).
2. 16200 (top of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI 1D is imitating November/ December. Right now it is on the December Support. Use it accordingly.
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DAX Rising Wedge aiming at 4hour MA50 and bottomDAX with a strong rejection at the top of its Rising Wedge. Targeting the 4hour MA50 is the norm inside this pattern. As long as its not broken, buying is the action with 15750 the Target. Closing under the 4hour MA50 is bearish, with the Target at the bottom of the Rising Wedge (15100).
Best 2 week buy opportunity inside the RSI's Buy Zone.
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DAX H4: Too early for bears to enter? Fed did it again.Bears in Twitter start to ask themselves whether they were all wrong or they were too early to bet against the market after the Fed was hawkish-but-not-too-hawkish in yesterday's meeting. DAX is a heavily automotive, banks and other cyclic assets weighted European index. Europe has performed better than America, but if ECB decides to implement an even more hawkish strategy than that of the Fed, those "better European gains" will vanish relatively soon. That is why, together with the current economic, political and social-unrest context; I am beginning to feel bearish on DAX and CAC. DAX could be shaping a H&S pattern the next days that could end up pretty bad if inflation does not calm down, ECB continues to raise rates and unemployment increases.
Therefore, my prediction is that DAX will not reach ATHs and stay around 15580-16250 to drop later on to 11350-13350.
Could there be again a Head and Shoulders on its way?
DAX: Bullish after breaking the 4H MA200DAX easily broke above the 4H MA200 (14,248.20) yesterday, which as I've mentioned in the past 2 weeks is the most crucial level on the medium-term, and the trend shifted back to bullish again long-term. This is evident also on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 58.733, MACD = 21.600, ADX = 18.725), whose RSI turned bullish for the first time since December 14th. This is all a result of holding the 1D MA50 (14,052.30) as a Support and the Golden Cross 4 weeks ago.
As mentioned previously, the 4H MA200 break would be a buy break-out for me and now I am targeting 14,700, which is just below the June 6th High of 14,710. Technically the 4H MA50 (14,017.50) should now act as a Support/ buy entry. My attention fundamentally is on the FOMC Meeting Minutes today and more importantly the Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. All prices mentioned on my analysis are on DAX futures current contract in front.
DAX: Startle ReflexesWe don’t know what has startled DAX so much that it has jumped upwards and has come quite close to the mark at 12425 points again – maybe, someone tested its startle reflexes… However, the index is already back on track and should continue to move downwards into the pink zone between 11421 and 11060 points to finish wave III in pink, which it could also do in the slightly lower and larger blue zone between 11352 and 10828. Afterwards, DAX should perform a countermovement into the upper pink zone between 12129 and 13066 points, before dropping into the big green zone to complete the overarching downwards movement. Indeed, wave 2 in green could also end in the blue zone between 9980 and 9456 points, which provides a little bit more room southwards.
DAX: HiccupsLooks like DAX has the hiccups, the way it is hopping about nervously. We don’t know what has affected its stomach – maybe it is the fact that the index is still indecisive about wave (2) in white. Apparently, it has not yet determined whether it has already completed wave (2) in white or wants to finish it a bit lower still, before resuming the overarching ascent. However, there is only room until the support at 12425 points, as below this mark, our secondary scenario with a probability of 40% would come into play. In that case, DAX would have to take a detour through the green zone between 12140 and 11150 points first, before rising again.
DAX: Deep BreathDAX should draw a deep breath because it has quite the way downwards coming up. We expect the index to head for the support at 12425 points, crossing it to dive into the green zone between 12140 and 11150 points, where it should finish wave 2 in green. Afterwards, DAX should take off again, climbing not only back above 12425 points but also above the resistance at 13682 points. There remains a 33% chance, though, that the index could surmount the resistance at 13682 points earlier already.
DAX Index Analysis, Breaking the Resistance Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The DAX index has lost 0.32% after the close on Monday, The market is having a hard time breaking out of the resistance zone from 16024.90 to 16114.41, as we see on the chart after the price has gone up near the 16030.575 the Bears went in right away and showed the Bulls that they still have power in them and a Bearish candle has formed dropping the price to the 15850.270.
upcoming Scenarios for the price movement :
Scenario 1 :
The DAX index is trading at 15925.730 and it's nearing the first resistance line at 16024.90, where the Bulls power will be tested and if they have proven that they still hold control over the trend then we will see a breakout from that resistance zone and the price will most likely be moving up and will be headed near the 16436.49 area.
Scenario 2 :
After that Bearish candle, The Bears has shown the Bulls that they still have power in them and they could be making a move soon, The drop in price on Monday was 0.32%, This could be a sign that the Bears are ready to make their move, if the Bears were able to hold control over the Market right now then we will be seeing the price dropping near the first Support line at 15935.39 where a battle between the Bulls and the Bears will take place over control of the market, If the Bears were able to win that battle then we will be seeing the price dropping more and could be headed to the Major support area at 15845.88.
Technical Indicators showing that :
1) The Market Price is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Bullish sign)
2) The MACD is above the 0 line showing that the market is in a Bullish state, with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal Line.
3) The STOCH reached The overbought zone with a negative crossover between %K (82.25) and %D (89.52). Which could indicate a small drop in price.
4) The RSI is at 61.48 showing great Strength in the market, With no divergences between the indicator and the market.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 15935.39 1) 16024.90
2) 15774.37 2) 16105.43
3) 15571.29 3) 16233.41
Fundamental point of view :
Germany stocks were lower after the close on Monday, as losses in the Consumer & Cyclical, Transportation & Logistics and Industrials sectors led shares lower.
At the close in Frankfurt, the DAX lost 0.32%, while the MDAX index fell 0.54%, and the TecDAX index lost 0.12%.
The DAX volatility index, which measures the implied volatility of DAX options, was up 12.13% to 18.02.
The best performers of the session on the DAX were E.ON SE (DE:EONGn), which rose 1.39% or 0.150 points to trade at 10.940 at the close. Meanwhile, Linde PLC (DE:LINI) added 1.19% or 3.100 points to end at 264.250 and Merck KGaA (DE:MRCG) was up 0.75% or 1.47 points to 196.40 in late trade.
The worst performers of the session were Volkswagen AG VZO O.N. (DE:VOWG_p), which fell 2.14% or 4.45 points to trade at 203.05 at the close. Henkel & Co KGaA AG Pref (DE:HNKG_p) declined 2.12% or 1.82 points to end at 84.06 and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (DE:BMWG) was down 1.91% or 1.585 points to 81.495. According to Investing
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.