DAX This week offers a great buying opportunity.DAX (DE40) has been trading within the same Channel Up since the bottom of the Inflation Crisis on the week of October 03 2022. The recent August 05 rebound on the 1W MA200 (blue trend-line) was nothing but the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, the 3rd in total.
The previous two, following their respective Bearish Legs (dotted Channel Down), they first reached a Resistance just above the previous High and after a pull-back and break-out above it, the continued for the 2nd part of the Leg.
It appears that in symmetrical terms, we are exactly there, right before the start of the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg. Interestingly enough, the 1W MACD completed a Bullish Cross just last week (been the most solid bottom confirmation in the past Legs) so if anything, the rally could be even stronger.
In any case, keeping in mind the strict Resistance offered by the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up, our target is still 20000, which is just below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is the Fib level where both previous Higher Highs of the Channel Up were priced.
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Daxsignals
DAX breaking above this Resistance can target 20000DAX hit yesterday Resistance 1 (the September 03 High) but got rejected and failed to close the candle above it. Naturally, the market is reacting with weakness today and so far a red 1D candle.
As you realize, the key here is to close that candle above Resistance 1, which is what happened in the middle of the previous Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. After testing the Resistance at the time on January 29 2024, the index turned sideways for a few days, until it finally closed above it and started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg.
All this time the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting, just as it did recently on September 06. If those conditions are met, we expect another run towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (where the April 01 Higher High was priced). Our Target is slightly below it at 20000.
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DAX ahead of a mega 1W Bullish Cross.Last month (July 15, see chart below), we made a bold Megaphone prediction on DAX (FDAX1!), which delivered both an excellent sell opportunity and a bottom buy entry:
The situation now is more difficult as despite DAX's recovery, the U.S. markets are under a certain degree of volatility. We need to zoom out to the 1W time-frame to answer that and get a better understanding of the long-term trend.
The key development will be the upcoming formation of a 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It will be the first since November 20 2023, which was in fact the last time the index hit and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), forming the previous Higher Low of the 2-year Channel Up.
As a result, having already tested and rebounded earlier this month on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 9 months, we believe that the current 4-week green rally will be extended.
The last two Bullish Legs of the Channel Up initially rose by +16.74% and +23.84% before their first corrective pull-back. As a result, our Target on the medium-term is 19800 (+16.74% rise from the recent bottom).
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DAX Sell opportunity at the top of this pattern.DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far:
The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result, we are expecting the index to get rejected around the top of the Megaphone and the long-term Channel Up.
That will be our next short-term sell opportunity, targeting 18000 (the June 14 Low), which by the time of the rejection should be very close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the untested long-term Support level since November 15 2023.
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DAX Medium-term buy opportunity.Last time we looked at DAX (FDAX1!) it gave us another successful sell signal (May 17) at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 9-month Channel Up:
This time it is issuing a medium-term buy signal as after reaching the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 6-month Channel Up, while hitting and holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as Support, it is sustaining an upward consolidation.
The last Higher Lows was also priced after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and supported by the 1D MA100 and the only confirmation left to form an identical pattern with that is for the 1D RSI to complete a Bullish Cross. As you can see, that has historically been a very reliable buy signal.
Our Target is 19300, which is marginally lower than the previous +8.80% Bullish Leg, but almost exactly on the Internal Higher Highs trend-line.
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DAX Another perfect sell opportunity emerges like the last one.DAX (FDAX1!) gave as an excellent sell opportunity last month (April 11, see chart below) that hit the 17700 Target and shortly after rebounded:
The index yet again flashes a sell signal as the price got rejected yesterday exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up. In symmetrical terms, this is similar to the Higher High rejection of May 19 2023, which pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1D MACD is also inside a similar Falling Wedge pattern and will confirm the sell signal once it makes a Bearish Cross. Our Target now is 18350.
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DAX Started a correction. We have a clear short-term Target.DAX has a rejection on April 01 exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 18-month Channel Up (since October 03 2022). The 1D MACD made a Bearish Cross, being Lower High than the previous one on December 18 2023, which is exactly what happened on the January 27 2023 Bearish Cross.
That sequence was the first Bullish Leg that topped to form the Channel's Higher High and then pulled-back to marginally below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and even test the previous Resistance, which turned Support eventually.
As a result, we remain bearish on DAX, targeting at least 17700 (Fib 0.236). The previous Resistance is at 17000 but we will update if that Target will be pursued. The safest action would be to wait for the 1D MACD to form a Bullish Cross under the 0.0 level and buy for the long-term.
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DAX Correction very likely. Target 17100.DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross (which has been a sell signal within this pattern) while the price is already on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension level (which is where it was rejected on the previous Bullish Leg on March 07 2023), we are turning bearish on DAX on the medium-term, targeting the previous Resistance at 17100.
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DAX Time to respect the 17-year Channel and correct.Exactly 3 months ago (December 06 2023, see chart below), we set a 17800 Target on DAX (DE40) and the index hit that level yesterday:
At the time DAX was the first major stock index to hit new All Time Highs (ATH) and as we mentioned it "sent a message to indices globally". And followed they did, as all markets followed this lead and rose aggressively.
This time however, DAX is sending a bearish signal as by hitting 17800 it reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 17-year Channel Up that started on the July 2007 High, right at the peak of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
At the same time it almost hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which is a key level as every time the index (nearly) hit it (May 2014, January 2018, February 2020), it corrected by at least -15%. As a result we think a test of January's Low at 16350 would be a modest target, even though it might seem unrealistic under the current market sentiment. A -15% decline would even test the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 2022 and the post Inflation Crisis recovery.
Note that we currently only starting the 3rd Mega Cycle. Both previous 2 peaked their Higher Highs on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (measuring from Sine Wave Top to Sine Wave Top). So on a multi-year basis, as investors we look to take advantage of these corrections and buy for an ultimate 2028 Target at 20500.
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DAX Trading plan based on the 1D MA50DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term.
If however the 1D MA50 breaks, we will open a sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 16200. Based on the 1D RSI, which is showing a consolidation following a Channel Down, there are more probabilities of replicating the April - May 2023 bullish sequence.
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DAX Will it drop at the top of the 1-year Channel Up?DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the previous declines within the pattern, there are high probabilities of seeing a minimum of -6.50% pull-back. That gives us a Sell Target at 16000. The absolute bottom on the long-term based on the 2023 price action is the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which formed the market Lows of March 20 2023 and October 27 2023.
If the index closes a 1D candle above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up, then we will drop the sell and buy the break-out instead, targeting 17600, which would complete a +20.90% rise from the October Low, symmetrical to the rise on the December 20 2022 Low.
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DAX Channel Down aiming at 16000DAX (DE40) has transitioned into a Channel Down pattern following the December 14 top rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is fast approaching as the first level of Support but we expect it downtrend to bottom lower as resembles the declines of August 2023, March 2023 and December 2022 both on price and 1D RSI terms.
All those declines have been extended at least to -6.50% so if the current pattern continues to replicate them, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. As a result our Target is 16000, exactly at the top of the Support Zone. We will buy for the medium-term once the 1D RSI starts making Higher Lows (buy on the 2nd Higher Low) at below neutral levels. The 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) is the long-term Support.
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DAX The decline isn't over but MACD can give a timely buy.DAX (DE40) gave us an excellent sell signal last time we looked into it (December 14 2023, see chart below), as the 1D MACD Bearish Cross, was our sell signal:
Our 16500 short-term target has already been hit, and we now shift our focus on the medium-term as it appears that this pull-back will most likely be extended to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least.
It was a similar correction on December 13 2022, which after almost reaching the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level (as the currrent High), it got rejected back to the 1D MA50 on a -6.50% decline. As a result our sell target is now 16150 (1D MA50 contact) and we will buy again for the long-term only when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which was the case on January 03 2023.
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DAX Will the 1D Golden Cross pull it back like last time?DAX (DE40) is trading within a 16-month Channel Up and is currently on the second most aggressive bullish leg, about to form the 2nd 1D Golden Cross within that time span. The 1D RSI is above 85.00 touching historically overbought levels while the price is approaching the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous Higher High of the Channel, which is below where the Channel's first bullish leg of October - November 2022 peaked and then, after a 1D Golden Cross formation, pulled back to its middle trend-line and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Despite those bearish indicators, we will sell only after the 1D MACD forms a Bearish Cross, which has been the most consistent sell signal throughout this period of time and target 16500 (Channel's middle). On the other hand, if the index breaks above the 1.382 Fib first, we will buy the break-out and target 18000, which is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and +24.20% rise from the bottom (similar to the November 2022 rally).
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DAX's new All Time High sends a message to indices globallyDAX hit a new All Time High level, leading world stock indices on this rally and sending a clear message to markets globally: This rally has only just started.
As you see on this 1M (monthly) time-frame, with the obvious exception of the COVID crash anomaly (Black Swan event), the index has been trading within a very stable Channel Up pattern since the start of the 2008 crisis. The 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) has been the absolute Support during this time, holding even during the COVID market crash.
The recent November rally after October's bottom on a 3 month straight decline, is completing a very rare but powerful bullish signal that has only happened another 3 times during this 16-year pattern (5 if we count smaller occasions). As you can see, every time the index broke above a dashed Lower Highs trend-line of a correction wave, it then pulled-back to test it and after it held, it initiated a strong and lengthy rally.
There have been two major Highs on this Channel Up pattern, and those are displayed perfectly on the Sine Waves peaks (April 2015, January 2022). Both have been exactly on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension since the first correction following a market High (July 2007, April 2015). Those occasions that are matched with the current rebound more accurately based on the 1M RSI are marked with a blue circle.
The minimum % rise that those 5 events have delivered is the +22.10% of February 2020, which of course could have been higher if it wasn't cut short by the COVID crash. In any case a +22.10% rise from the October 2023 Low would match perfectly the top of the Channel Up and will make a technical Higher High for the pattern. As a result, our target is 17800 on DAX.
What the blue-print of the Sine Waves show though for long term investors is that the Cyclical Peak therefore target around the end of 2028 - beginning 2029 is 20500. Those that patiently wait for corrections to take advantage of and buy, will get rewarded based on this historic behavioral pattern.
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DAX Buy the pull-back and target the All Time HighDAX eventually broke to the upside following our previous trade idea (see chart below) and hit both our 15635 and 15995 targets:
The index is now approaching Resistance 1 (16535), which is the All Time High (ATH) but the 1D CCI shows a Bearish Divergence and potential short-term pull-back. That would serve as an excellent accumulation opportunity for an end-of-the-year rally. We are waiting for a buy at 15800 (1D MA200) in order to target 16535.
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DAX Watch this low risk November trading plan.It's been a bit long since we last took a trade on DAX (DE40) but it didn't disappoint as it hit both our buy and sell targets (see chart below) within the 3-month Channel Down:
The rebound took place within the 6-month Support Zone and slightly under the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), similar to the March 20 rebound. The fractals are identical as they both rebounded aggressively, indicating strong demand inside the Support Zone. Both also formed a strong 1D MACD Bullish Cross straight after they bottomed.
The price is now on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at the top of the Channel Down, and the last two days failed to close the 1D candle above the MA50, despite breaking it. The Resistance pressure is getting stronger since this is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the July 31 top.
As a result, we are willing to sell the Lower Highs top of the Channel Down and target 15050 (can go even to the 0.618 Fib level but we seek short-term exposure for now) but only as long as the candles close below the 1D MA50. Upon the first 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and resume buying, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 15635.
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DAX has started the new Channel Down bullish legDAX hit last week the bottom (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started after the July 31 High. Technically that is a short-term buy signal, aimed at the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the top of the Channel Down. Our current target is 15500 (also on a +3.70% symmetry with the previous bullish leg of the Channel).
A 1D candle close above the Channel Up will be a bullish break-out signal targeting 15920 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level). But until it does, the trend will remain bearish within the Channel Down, targeting the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 14750.
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DAX Bottom rebound buy opportunity to 15650.DAX (DE40) has made a short-term bottom near the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down after hitting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a short-term buy signal to at least 15650, which is on the Channel's top and represents a symmetrical +3.66% rise similar to the previous Lower High leg. If it doesn't get rejected, this is where the Fibonacci retracement levels come forward. The 0.382 Fib is almost exactly on our target.
A break above, which would also be a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targets Resistance 1 (15995), which is exactly on the 0.618 Fib. Only a candle closing above that Resistance justifies a bullish reversal for the long-term.
If the 1D MA50 doesn't break, we expect the Channel Down to look for a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50, which can technically deliver a downward extension towards the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) on the 6-month Support Zone. If that scenario prevails, we will need to see a clear indication that this will be the same High Demand Zone as during March 15 - 24, when all attempts to break it reversed emphatically as most candles closed above it leaving long wicks inside the Zone.
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DAX Bullish as long as the 1D MA200 holds.DAX (DE40) has been neutral on the 1D time-frame, trading sideways within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 03. We can see two clear Support and Resistance Zones. Today the price is approaching once more the 1D MA200, following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, so it is a buy opportunity again. Target the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 16000.
Apart from that, the Fibonacci retracement levels since the July 31 High, make solid Supports and Resistances, with the 0.5 Fib currently being one.
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DAX Trading plan within this 1H Channel DownDAX is within a Channel Down pattern on the 1H time-frame and just bounced back to its top (Lower Highs trend-line), hitting the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) immediately. As long as the price remains within the Channel Down, sell and target the Inner Lower Lows trend-line at 15525.
With the 1H MACD just forming a Bullish Cross that high for the first time since September 01, it is equally likely to see a bullish break-out above the Channel. We will buy if it breaks above the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which should coincide with a 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. In that case our target will be 15940 (the 0.786 Fibonacci).
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DAX40 H4 - Short SetupDAX40 H4
We are now into that 16000 resistance region, a nice area of supply and resistance sitting on our H4 and D1 level. We also note, FTSE100 sitting on that 7500 psychological price. UK and EU based indices sitting on some pretty large numbers.
FTSE100 already aimed to make a couple of slightly rejections from that resistance price, as has DAX. Looking for a deeper pulldown now to see some downside swing potential.
DAX Buy opportunity on the 1D MA200 and bottom of Channel Up.DAX is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle after it almost hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) last Friday, which is intact since November 10 2022. This rebound comes as a natural reaction to the long-term Support dynamic of the 1D MA200 as well as the presence of Support 1 from the July 07 Low.
As long as it holds, we will take it as a buy opportunity and target 16700 (Internal Higher Highs trend-line). If it closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA200, we will take the small loss and open a sell targeting Support 2 at 14470.
Notice how even the 1D RSI almost hit the 34.70 Support and is rebounding, which is an additional buy signal. Don't neglect also the fact that Friday's low was formed at the bottom of the 7-month Channel Up pattern.
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