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Daxsignals

DAX Lower bottom and recovery signal on 8-year patternThe German stock index (DAX) has been trading under Lower Highs ever since the late December All Time High (ATH). Ignoring the March 08 2022 breach due to the Ukraine - Russia war, the pattern is a Channel Down. The last two times DAX traded within a Channel Down was for the whole year of 2018 and April 2015 - July 2016. Both correction were almost a year and took place due to bearish fundamentals (U.S. - China trade war and Brexit, Grexit, VW scandal Oil respectively). Both previous Channel Down patterns made their bottom on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension from the previous Lower Low. If we apply this on the current Channel Down, we get the 1.236 Fib a little over 11400. That is roughly the low of the November 2020 U.S. Presidential election. In all patterns, the RSI trades under Lower Highs (with the exception of the actual ATH) way before the index top (indicating that strength was lost earlier), and when the RSI broke above that trend-line, it coincided with the price breaking above the Channel Down, thus starting a new 1 year Bull Phase. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XETR:DAX
by TradingShot
1
DAX Testing the March Support. Potential Triple Bottom.The DAX futures index (FDAX1!) followed exactly what we pointed out on our last analysis more than a month ago, as it got rejected on the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line (1) and is now approaching the Support Zone that started after the March 07 Low: As you see, that Support Zone has so far made a Double Bottom (March 07 and July 05) and along with the Lower Highs trend-line (1) have formed a massive Descending Triangle that is on the verge of breaking out. With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows since March 07, a bullish break-out is quite likely and it should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Note that the 1D MA200 has been untouched since February 02. However no further buying can be engaged with as the price will still be limited to the Lower Highs trend-line (2). In our opinion, only a break above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) can restore the bullish sentiment on DAX on the long-term. If on the contrary the 12360 Support breaks, we expect aggressive selling that can target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension around 11435. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TradingShot
DAX testing its first Support, the 1D MA50The German Stock Index (DAX) got emphatically rejected on its January Lower Highs trend-line, as we anticipated with our previous analysis two weeks ago: The price broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the first line of Support. As long as it closes above it, chances are that we will rise and re-test the Lower Highs (1) trend-line. A close below though, calls for a sell extension towards the 12400 Support, currently a Double Bottom. Notice how the RSI on the 1W time-frame got rejected exactly on the 48.80 Resistance, which was where the June 06 High was made. That matches the Lower Highs as well. A break above this Resistance, would be an additional factor indicating that the long-term trend may be shifting from bearish back to bullish. Technically, only a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)/ 1W MA50 (red trend-line) Resistance cluster, constitutes a long-term bullish break-out. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TradingShot
3
DAX broke above the 1D MA100. Important Lower High test.The German Index DAX (FDAX) is attempting today a 1D candle closing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if successful it will be the first since June 07. Despite the bullish short-term action, this is not the time to double down on buying as the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line (1) is right above, providing Resistance. On top of that, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level is at 13855. Only a break above the LH (1) can justify further buying, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.5 Fib. Until then, it is likely to see a rejection and short-term pull-back to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. Note that if the index breaks above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), we can claim that the trend will turn bullish on the long-term. A strong sign that we may be turning bullish on the long-term is the fact that the RSI on the 1W time-frame is on Higher Highs since March 21 with the price rebounding after the Double Bottom. We saw the exact opposite formations right before the 2022 correction started. Price formed a Double Top while the 1W RSI was on Lower Highs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TradingShot
3
DAX made a major bullish break-out.DAX is now trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the third straight session with the 1W RSI at its highest level since late January. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (14800) is just below the 14950 Resistance formed by the March 29 High. That is a short-term target, buying after that can be justified only by a 1D candle close above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), in which case we will look for a complete gap closing at 16275. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by TradingShot
4
DAX Bearish unless this trend-line breaks.In the past month, I've made a case why DAX remains a long-term sell. The key parameter is the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the index made a (near) All Time High on January 05. As you see, the price has been rejected on that trend-line countless times already and on today's 1D candle, it has come the closest since the April 21 rejection. A new rejection there, should extend the Channel Down, towards a new Lower Low around 13400. A break above the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line should be enough to reverse the long-term market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Keep in mind that the whole pattern since January, resembles a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders on a slope, with the two Channel Down patterns possibly serving the role of the Shoulders and the March 07 dip the role of the Head. Keep an eye on the 1W RSI. A Bullish Cross will most likely confirm the sentiment shift from long-term bearish to bullish. In that case, target 16000. If on the other hand the Channel Down breaks to the downside, we may see accumulated selling similar to the February 24 break-out. In that case, I expect at least 12500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TradingShot
3
DAX Still consolidating. Trade the break-out.Not much have changed on the German stock market (DAX) as the price is still consolidating within the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line of January (Resistance) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (Support). Being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as well, scalpers may find some value trading the 1D MA50 - 0.382 Fib Zone but a lower risk trade lies on the break-out, either above the Lower Highs trend-line (bullish targeting the 1D MA200 (orang trend-line) and then the All Time High) or below the 0.382 Fib (bearish towards the 0.236 Fib/ 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and then the March lows. While the 1D RSI favors the downside, keep an eye on the MACD for a Bullish Cross, which will shift the sentiment upwards. Also on a longer-term horizon, this looks like an Inverse Head and Shoulders on a declining trend with the ATH Lower Highs trend-line as the Resistance to break. And that is typically a bottom pattern calling for a trend reversal to the upside. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TradingShot
2
DAX Last week's trading plan intactDAX eventually followed the trading plan suggested last week, as the price turned neutral into a consolidation range, following the rejection on the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line: The strategy is still valid. As long as the Lower Highs trend-line holds and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level supports, we can keep scalping for medium-term profits. A break above the Lower Highs is a bullish break-out signal targeting the 16290 High, while a break below the 0.382 Fib (13900) is a bearish break-out signal targeting initially 13350 (March 10 Low). Notice that in RSI terms (portrayed on the 1D time-frame), it has started trading downwards on Lower Highs, similar to January. That was when the correction trend of the Lower Highs started. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TradingShot
DAX rejected on Lower Highs. Unless broken, consolidation ahead.DAX broke and closed yesterday above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 20. Despite this bullish development, the index failed to break above the long-term Lower Highs trend-line of the correction, which has been holding and rejecting the price (6 rejections including yesterday's) since after the All Time Highs. The last time that happened, DAX consolidated for more than 2 weeks (February). As a result, as long as it fails to break above the Lower Highs, it is more likely to see a consolidation within roughly 14800 - 14100, which as you see is within the zone of the 0.618 - 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels. A break (and 1D candle closing) above the Lower Highs, should be enough to extend this bull run all the way to the 16290 All Time Highs. Similarly a break below the 0.382, could restore the bearish sentiment back to the 12420 March low. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TradingShot
2
DAX Approaching the 1D MA50. Key for the recovery.The German Index has made a +17% rebound since last Monday's bottom and is very close to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is the natural Resistance for the index as it has been unbroken since January 20th. In a similar situation after the U.S. elections of November 2020, DAX started the strong uptrend of 2021 once it broke above the 1D MA50. It's first stop was the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level. On the current fractal that Fib is around 17200 and can be hit by June. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by TradingShot
2
DAX is pricing the long-term bottom for the 20k waveThis is a fractal from the past. DAX's current Bearish Megaphone pattern resembles that of June - October 2014. In fact the whole price action from the February 2020 collapse due to the COVID outbreak, is similar to the July 2011 - October 2014 sequence. See how all major formations align almost perfectly between the two: Death and Golden Crosses on the 1D time-frame, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and all legs from (1) to (6) so far. Right now, DAX is at the bottom of the Bearish Megaphone on leg (6). If that holds, then we may see a continuation of the 2014 pattern to a leg (7) which should be near the All Time High (ATH) and if the fractal continues to play out, possibly a hyper rise to (8) around 20000. *Interesting fact: 2014 was the year when Russia annexed Crimea and threatened the rest of Ukraine. Is this Déjà vu? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XETR:DAXLong
by TradingShot
2
DAX about to make a significant bullish break-outDAX is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 02, where it failed to make a close above (despite breaking it intraday) and got rejected. On the long-term we see that the 14,810 Support has held on 5 tests since May 2021, and up until the January 05 2022 Double Top, we've had Higher Highs. The long-term trend thus remains bullish. If the index closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we expect a rally towards (at first) the 16290 Resistance. Notice that when the 1D CCI was on the current levels previously, DAX printed a Higher High/ Higher Low pattern. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
2
DAX is approaching its bottom. Which indicators to look at.DAX has been trading for long within a very specific set of indicators that have very accurately signaled tops and bottoms. The top was eventually priced as per our update earlier this year: The signs of exhaustion were clear at the time. It wasn't just the fact that the index was trading near the top of its Channel Up but also the 1D CCI indicator entering its long-term Resistance Zone. Right now, if the index doesn't find support today on the Internal Pivot line, look for two things then: a candle wick below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and mostly the CCI hitting its Support Zone. Once the above parameters are met, our next target on DAX will be the 16400 - 16600 Zone (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension as with the November 19 High). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D
by TradingShot
3
DAX waving a short-term buy signal againFollowing our most recent DAX update, the price did eventually yield to its signs of exhaustion and pulled-back: The pull-back extended as low as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday where it found support and is rebounding today. This could be a short-term buy signal again, the technical overlay was explained on the previous update. As you see this is similar to the 1D MA50 rebound of October 29 which also came close to the Internal Pivot trend-line and pushed the price to its final blow-off top just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. A Target Zone within 16400 - 16600 as the new blow-off top is realistic. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
DAX waves signs of exhaustion. Top might be near.I've been bullish on DAX for a very long time as the Rising Wedge and Channel Up patterns prompted to Higher Highs ever since April 2021: However, the German index seems to be forming a pattern that based also on the 1D CCI, was previously seen just before market tops (i.e. Higher Highs on the pattern). As this 1D chart shows, the price just entered the CCI Resistance Zone that has been holding throughout the whole of last year. On two occasions (July 13 2021, August 12 2021) the CCI top matched with direct market tops. On the other two occasions (May 24 2021, November 03 2021), it made the price consolidate (orange circles) and made one last (blow-off) top 15 and 12 sessions later respectively. The above means that we've either topped or will top within the next two weeks. Potential peak points include 16400 (top/ Higher High of the Channel Up) and 16600 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level as it happened with the November 19 Top). In either case, a strong pull-back towards the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) should be expected. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D
by TradingShot
DAX Emerging MA50/MA100 Bullish Cross on the 4H.DAX appears to have completed the short-term profit taking pattern as presented last week on the following analysis: The 1D MA200 held and the index can now resume the uptrend towards the top of the long-term Channel Up. On today's analysis I shift focus to the 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) are close to forming a Bullish Cross. Last time that happened was in October 20 and resulted in a massive rally to 16300. All the price needs to do is clear the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which rejected the rebound today and break this short-term Bearish Megaphone. At the same time the 4H MACD just printed a Bullish Cross as well, while the Higher Lows trend-line from the November 30 market bottom is holding firmly. We are looking for a medium-term rise around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (16300). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
DAX short-term profit-taking leading to 16400Last week DAX gave the most optimal buy entry on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up as I presented on my most recent analysis: The price hit 15840 on a strong rebound, the strongest 2 days of the year. Yesterday the price started to pull-back but shouldn't be alarming as the very same -1.30% correction took place on October 18, during the last rally wave and turned out to be just profit taking. The index traded sideways for a week and later went on a 1 month rally extension towards the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That extension is currently a little over 16600 and if it takes place, it would mean the break to the upside of the August Channel Up. For the time being, it is more sensible to initially target 16400 and then re-evaluate. Notice how the 1D MACD is currently forming a Bullish Cross, which DAX typically forms at the start of its rallies. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
3
DAX Buy Signal long-termPattern: Channel Up on the 1D time-frame Signal: Buy as the price hit and held the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel, while hitting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since November 2020. Also the CCI bounced off its multi-month Support Zone. Target: 16500 (just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
3
DAX Trading PlanDAX rebounded today exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows) trend-line of its October Channel Up (blue) mainly due to the bettern than expected E.U. and German PMI data. If this effect is short-lived and the Channel breaks to the downside (quite likely as the MACD just formed a Bearish Cross on the 1D time-frame), look for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the next buyer accumulation. That happens to be within the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels. If however the Channel Up holds, the index should go for the next Higher High. In either case the next upside target is the 2.5 Fibonacci extension around 16500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D
by TradingShot
1
DAX sideways on its ATH. Potential pull-back.Two weeks ago, the consolidation on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), gave a clear buy extension signal on DAX: The 16000 Target has been hit and the index is consolidating around its 16030 former Resistance and ATH for 5 straight 1D candles. This is a sign of technical exhaustion of the dominant trend which is bullish, so if the Channel Up breaks its Higher Lows trend-line, I expect a full pull-back towards the 1D MA50. As long as it doesn't though, the bullish trend remains intact. In either case, the target is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (roughly within 16450 - 16500), which is still below the Higher Highs trend-line that has been keeping DAX below since April 16. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D
by TradingShot
2
DAX Bullish continuation towards 16000.My last DAX analysis was on a bus signal after the price broke above the 4H MA50: The short-term target of the 4H MA200 eventually got reached and now I shift my focus for the medium-term back to the 1D time-frame. As you see the price has been trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a week. The very same consolidation pattern around the 1D MA50 was last seen from July 23rd to August 3rd. It led to the formation of the 16030 All Time High/ Resistance. I am expecting a similar rise/ target. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
1
DAX Broke above the 4H MA50. Buy Signal.Pattern: Channel Up on 4H. Signal: Buy as the price broke above the 4H MA50. Target: 15500 (just below the 4H MA200). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DLong
by TradingShot
1