FTSE100 - POSSIBLE INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WEEKLYToday, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said a rate cut is needed after the Brexit vote and hinted that it could come as soon as this summer! This news got the FTSE and the DAX flying up to nearly 300 points. Also, the Feds stated this week that they may cut rates this summer as well, possibly even this month (July) so that is really great news for global indices. However, with the political uncertainty in Europe and UK, it wont be a sure bet! I believe the UK and European stocks will suffer later this year due to Brexit after shocks. I still expect more downside for FTSE100 and pound in particular but after today's news I think the markets will rally up first, ftse back near its all time high around 7100.
On the Weekly chart, I have identified a possible inverse head and shoulder pattern that has already broken the neckline today. We have the 200 MA support around 6460 and also our neckline support around 6400. In this case, our entry would be around 6460-6500 with stop loss below 6370 with a potential target of 7100.
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Brexit Impact on DAX - Polls versus Odds See the diferencesBrexit Financial Times poll 6 June:
Stay: 45%
Leave:43%
Odds Betfair
Stay: 70%
Leave: 30%
Something is not right, someone is lying and i bet are polls.
Base on that i design a new up channel and a possible buy are to get long. Make your comments.
DAX 9733 May Lows Critical Level to WatchMy stop profit was actived at 10.037 (DAX futures) during this night. For now i am out, waiting where DAX wants to go. May lows is the key for bulls and bears at this moment. Has you see DAX break the ascendant channel. If DAX close below 9.733 a re-test of february is a option.
DAX Key Support at 9,900DAX Look: return to levels of demand
The key short-term support is at 9,900 points.
DAX drop 1,03% which falls at about 14:30 hours of today's session. This has led to the price of our indice to close the gap at 10.057 points. Short-term the trend is bullish (until the price stay inside the channel DAX still in bullish mode) . We do not appreciate any sign of weakness but to see a very bullish signal should wait for a close above 10.365 points (highs of this week).
DAX last bull breath? Bears are waking up slowly...Expect that DAX will test again the all time highs until December 2015. I think december FOMC meeting can bring the 1st rate hike since 2006. My opinion bulls will lose control in 2016 and bears will come and bring DAX to 5.500 area (see the red line from the last lows) .
SHORT TERM - BULL
LONG TERM - BEARISH
See chart to understand my view...
DAX: Bulls are you ready to go until 16.000?DAX weekly already begin to build a ascendant channel. A big up move will come in this next leg up. I can make a projection to 16.000 to achieve in the 1st Quarter 2016, many will call me crazy. For me this number (around) can be the Top of this HUGE Bull market.
DAX 30: Open long positions for tradingVery interesting movement of European indices, where everyone made it out of the minimum of the day, closing positive after the support base (by definition support) of the descending channel that have been negotiating since early April . Thus, we believe that it is time to open long positions in all the European indices and in the case of the German Dax 30, with a stop loss (closing in values) below the minimum Tuesday. That is, in the case of Dax 30, the strategy is to open bullish positions at current levels, placing a stop loss below 10.797 points (corresponding to 10 798 points of index futures). Aim to rise in the coming sessions / weeks, we have the maximum of last week (11,452 points) and above the high end of the channel in 11,660 points. CHART HAS A MISTAKE: STOP LOSS 10.797
DAX: Next attemp to get LONG will be around 10.800 levelLast attemp to get long near the May low doesn´t work. We get SL at 11.150
Next attemp to get a LONG position will be around 10.800 level, bottom of the descendant channel.
DAX still consolidating but DAX still bullish in the medium / Long term, that´s for sure.
I think between 1 and 3 months DAX will make new all time highs.
DAX weekly chart continues to consolidate laterallyEven so, and despite the falls at this time exceed 2% for the week it is certain that the weekly candle is not indicative of anything. At the end of the day what lies ahead is simply a bearish backlash that left a very strong support at 11.167 points (minimum of 'hammer' formation) and has since been moving sideways. Stochastic Oscillator remains rotated downward and away from levels of "oversold". That is, we could still go laterally moving us in the coming weeks before generating a significant signal strength.
DAX30: We raise slightly the stop lossRecently we recommended the opening of bullish positions in DAX30 with a stop loss (on closing prices) below the minimum decreasing last (or minimum reaction) in intraday minimum of 7 May session. Now just slightly went up the stop loss up to 11,594 points ('gap' up the May 19 session). Close this 'gap' up (ie the void), execute the stop loss, given the possibility to be directed to the support zone which presents the May low. But since the stop loss is not achieve, will continue long in the DAX30.
Europe still has a long way to go until new highs, see why...It had said that on Tuesday session, where European indexes rose on average more than 2%, the first resistance zone and since then have been overcome we started to have minimum and maximum growing, which is always a sign of solidity. But that's not why we think we will ever directly to the annual maximum, reached in April. In the past few weeks correction procedure, it is certain that the weekly overbought relaxed enough, but we oscillators in no man's land, halfway between the oversold and overbought, and rarely indexes usually resume the upward trend from these levels It is indicated in many of the currently oscillators. I continue to put as most likely scenario the return to the annual maximum, but without haste, with alternating rises and falls thus consuming more time than depth. In addition, European stock markets will remain attentive to the results of the municipal elections this Sunday in Spain, which will most likely be a foretaste of the upcoming general elections. Needless to say, the first sessions next week will be directly influenced by the outcome of these elections, as foreign investors continue or not to trust the country. That is if in doubt, uncertainty is the number one enemy of the markets.
The signal that somehow we anticipate the beginning of a new upward trend through the fact that the European bank sector index (SX7E) can overcome the resistance zone which features in 159.42 points. Above said resistance, the logic will rely on a new bullish impulse to launch the index above the annual maximum (162 points) and, on a higher plane, above the maximum 2014 (163.34 points).
Don't Let Fear of a 'Grexit' Keep You Out of DAXIn the last analysis of DAX, proposed to open long positions with a stop loss on closing prices in 11.167 points (last minimum reaction). In addition, as can be seen in the chart, this minimum coincide with the guideline upward from the minimum of last October. So now we can do is keep the bullish positions in the index, with stop losses at the same level. Since puncture minimal reaction Finally, do not rule out that, with ups and intermediate corrections, the index try to head into the resistance zone which presents the annual maximum, around 12,300 points.
DAX i am again LONG...Don't Let Fear of a 'Grexit' Keep You Out of European Stocks
In the chart, we can say that perhaps we have seen the minimum current corrective phase. This does not mean that, from here, the rate has to go up to the maximum of the year. In fact, you can draw a lateral movement to end to consolidate the previous excesses. Thus, after the weekly candle-shaped "hammer" designed during the first week of May, it may be said that to the extent that the price does not come back to close down, the logic is that from here, little by little, restructure on the rise again in the coming weeks with the aim of rising clearly above the current. The "stop loss" will be placed in closures, down from 11,167 points.