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Dayfarrell

EURUSD SHORT BIASHERE IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHY I CALL THIS PATTERN A STAIR CASE OR STAIRS, WHICH ENDS WITH A U SHAPE. THE RATIOS ARE: 23.6-38% RETRACE BETWEEN A STRONG MOVE, THEN A 76 % FIB EXPANSION CONTINUATION OF THE MOVE WHICH THEN GOES INTO A 38% RETRACE. AS ALL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, THERE ARE A BIT MORE MATHS INVOLVE BUT IT'S MOSTLY EXPERIMENTAL. THE TREND ANGLE FOR EXAMPLE IS A GREAT TOOL TO UTILIZE DURING ANALYSIS, IT ASSIST IN PREDICTION WHEN COMPARING TIME PERIOD AND PRICE. HAPPY NEW YEAR, I WISH FOR EVERYONE A PROSPEROUS 2016!
Short
by DayFarrell
EURUSD STAIRCASE, SHORT THEN LONGHERE IS A TRADE SETUP I DISCOVERED A WHILE BACK AND SINCE THEM IT HAS BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL, I CALL IT STAIRCASE BECAUSE OF THE SHAPE OF THE CHART. BASICALLY, LOOK FOR A 23.6 RETRACEMENT, THEN AN EXPANSION TO 76.8, AND A RALLY BACK TO THE 23.6 REGION. USUALLY THIS TRADE WORKS GREAT WHEN THERE IS NO FUNDAMENTALS ANTICIPATING SO I'M CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK. THE TRADE WILL MAKE A U-SHAPED MOVEMENT WHEN IT GETS TO THE 76.8 SO IT WILL SPEND SOME TIME IN THAT PRICE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CHART CURRENTLY RESEMBLES A HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WHICH MEANS A PULL BACK AT 1.0795. - 1.0938. I'M NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS OPTION BECAUSE THE TREND SHORT IS REALLY STRONG, SO A SHARP RETRACEMENT DOESN'T LOOK POSSIBLE. TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE, WAIT FOR A CLOSE BELOW 1.0795 THEN SELL TO 1.0740. BUY AT THAT PRICE WITH LIMIT AT 1.0860. ALL THE BEST, CHEERS!!
by DayFarrell
NZDUSD FEW REASONS TO SHORTOK I MUST START BY SAYING THAT WHEN A CHART IS POSTED BY ANYONE WITH A PARTICULAR TARGET, IT IS BASED ON THE REVERSAL POINT THAT WAS SET PRIOR. SO IF I SET MY REVERSAL TO 5 ON A SHORT WITH A 61.8 TARGET, AND THE MARKET GOES FURTHER DOWN TO 3, YOU MUST BE SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT YOU MUST ADJUST YOUR RETRACEMENT TOOL TO 3 TO GET A MORE ACCURATE TARGET. IF YOU ARE NOT AWARE OF THAT I'D ADVICE YOU DO A BIT MORE TRAINING , AND THE BEST PLACE I CAN RECOMMEND FOR YOU TO BECOME A MORE PROFITABLE TRADER IN A VERY SHORT TIME, TRADEEMPOWERED.COM. (NOT GETTING PAID TO SAY THAT, NEITHER HAVE I DONE A COURSE WITH THEM, BUT I FOLLOW THEIR TRADE METHOD AND ITS SIMPLE STRAIGHT FORWARD AND VERY PROFITABLE) BACK TO THE CHART. :) THE FIRST THING I MUST MENTION IS THE FLAG THAT IS BASED ON THE MAJOR TREND. FLAGS ARE CONTINUATION PATTERNS, MEANING AFTER THE FLAG IS COMPLETED IT WILL BREAK OUT AND CONTINUE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAJOR TREND, WHICH IN THIS CASE IS DOWNWARDS. THE CURRENT FLAG IS VERY MATURE AND READY FOR DELIVERY. WE ARE STARTING AT 50/50 CHANCE OF UP AND DOWN AS ALL MARKETS ARE, SO WE ARE GOING TO ADD 10% FOR EACH TIME WE GET A DIRECTIONAL BIAS (A LITTLE TRICK I OBSERVE FROM TRADEEMPOWERED, IS WHY I HAVE TO GIVE A PLUS TO THEM). SO THE FLAG GIVES US A PLUS 10%. THE NEXT STRUCTURE OF INTEREST IS THE H&S (HEAD AND SHOULDER) PATTERN THAT HAS FORMED AT THE END OF THE FLAG (OUR CURRENT STRUCTURE) AND AS MENTIONED BEFORE, H&S ARE REVERSAL PATTERNS. THIS H&S IS BASED ON THE UPWARD DIRECTION OF THE FLAG SO A REVERSAL WOULD MEAN A MOVE DOWNWARDS, WHICH PUTS US IN SYNC WITH THE FLAG, SO WE CAN ADD ANOTHER 10% DIRECTIONAL BIAS. WE ALSO HAVE A PATTERN IN IN THE HEAD OF THE H&S WHICH WE ARE AWAITING COMPLETION BETWEEN 38.2 AND 50% BASE ON MOMENTUM. AND WE ALSO HAVE AN ABCD PATTERN WITHIN THIS STRUCTURE WHICH WE CAN GIVE A 5%DIRECTIONAL BIAS. BRINGS US TO A TOTAL OF 85% BIAS BEAR, 15% BULL. ANOTHER METHOD I TEND TO USED TO GET A MORE ACCURATE REVERSAL POINT IS AN EMA. IT WORKS FOR ME DURING REVERSALS. I USE AN 8,13,21,34 FIB ADDED TOGETHER THEN I MULTIPLY THE TOTAL BY .382, .50, AND .618 TO GET A MOVING FIB TARGET, BECAUSE DURING REVERSALS, THE MARKET DON'T ALWAYS GO TO THE FIXED REVERSAL POINT, BUT YOU WILL NOTICE IT WILL TOUCH THE MOVING POINT. (THIS ONLY WORKS FOR ME DURING REVERSALS SUCH AS THIS). THE MARKET IS CURRENTLY AT 38.2 AND APPEARS TO BE REVERSING BUT I WILL STILL WAIT FOR MY ENTRY, AS I SAID BEFORE, I PREFER TO GET MY ENTRY RATHER THAN JUMP IN TOO EARLY. ALSO PLEASE, MY STOPS ARE MY STOPS, YOUR STOPS ARE YOUR STOPS :) IT'S BETTER TO AIM TO MAKE LESS AND HAVE A WIDE STOP THAN FOLLOW ME WITH TIGHT STOPS, SO PLEASE SET YOUR OWN. FEEL FREE TO TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK, I'VE BEEN TRYING TO FIND A REASON FOR A LONG BIAS, BUT NOT SEEING ANY. I WISH YOU MUCH SUCCESS WITH YOUR TRADES HAVE A GREAT DAY!
Short
by DayFarrell
6
USDCAD VERY BEAUTIFUL SETUP :)THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO MY RECENT EURUSD TRADE SETUP. NICE DEFINE STOP, WITH CLEAR TARGET AT THE TOP WHERE STRUCTURE HAS FAILED TO BREAK THROUGH TWICE. I'M MORE CONFIDENT OF THIS PAIR BREAKING STRUCTURE AFTER A SHORT PULLBACK BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS PRICE ACTION. WE HAD 3 LOWER LOWS (LL) AND NOW A HIGHER HIGH (HH). EVEN WITH THE LOWER LOWS, THE STRENGTH OF THE BULLS WERE PHENOMENAL, KEEPING THE BEARS ABOVE OUR NOW ENTRY LEVEL DENOTED BY THE RED RECTANGLE. I BELIEVE ANY MOVE UPWARD WILL BE A STRONG MOVE. SO IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR US TO SEE 1.348 FOR A NEW HIGHER HIGH. AS ALWAYS, TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK JUST IN CASE I MIGHT HAVE MISSED OUT ON SOMETHING. HAVE A SUCCESSFUL DAY! CHEERS!
Long
by DayFarrell
8
EURUSD LOOKING FOR 100 PIPS LONGI'VE COMBINED A NUMBER OF STRATEGIES TO GENERATE THIS IDEA BUT ALL ARE PRETTY SIMPLE. THERE IS A PATTERN FORMATION TAKING PLACE. I'VE PLACED THE D POINT AT A STRONG LOOKING SUPPORT THAT I'VE ELLIPSE TO THE LEFT, (YOU WILL HAVE TO SCROLL LEFT). FIB RATIO CONFLUENCE IS WHAT IS USED TO GENERATE THE PRICE MOVEMENT, ALL THE PULLBACKS ARE SOLELY ON THE 50% BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS SEQUENCE OF 50%'S. ALSO THERE IS AN AREA AT THE TOP OF STRONG RESISTANCE, WHICH I'M EXPECTING TO HOLD IT'S GROUND JUST ONE MORE TIME. I'M EXPECTING A 38.2 PULLBACK WHEN TARGET IS ACHIEVED, AND THEN A STRONG MOVE UPWARDS TO BREAK THE STRONG RESISTANCE. THE PRICE MOVEMENTS IV'E LABELED IN RED AND GREEN IS ONLY A GUIDE SO I CAN BETTER FOLLOW THE PRICE ACTION. SOMETIMES THE PRICE ACTION GOES EXACTLY THAT WAY, BUT OTHER TIMES IT GET THROWN OFF. LETS SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT, AND AS ALWAYS, I'D LOVE TO HEAR WHAT YOU THINK.
Long
by DayFarrell
4
EURUSD DAILY CANDLE PREDICTION TEST.OK, SO LAST WEEK I MENTIONED THAT I FIGURED A STRATEGY TO PREDICT THE NEXT CANDLE. I MUST CLARIFY THAT I WAS REFERRING TO A SCALPING STRATEGY, AND I'VE ONLY USED IT ON A 5 MIN CHART SO FAR. SO I RECEIVED A CHALLENGE FROM SOMEONE TO DO IT ON A DAILY CANDLE, SO THIS IS MY FIRST ATTEMPT TO DO SO. PLEASE KEEP IN MIND, THAT THIS PREDICTION IS IN NO WAY ME PREDICTING THE FUTURE, IT IS BASED SOLELY ON ANALYSIS, WITHOUT PSYCHOLOGY. SO WHETHER IT GOES RIGHT OR WRONG IS NOT MEANS TO BE EXCITED OR DISAPPOINTED. PLEASE REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT MEANT FOR TRADING, IT IS ONLY A TEST!!! I DON'T WANNA BE HELD RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES.
Long
by DayFarrell
6
GBPJPY LOOKING FOR FURTHER SHORT BEFORE LONGI'VE LABELED THIS CHART A, B, AND C, SO THAT MY EXPLANATION OF EACH WILL BE CLEAR. THIS CHART ANALYSIS IS BASED ON FIB RATIO (PHI) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS, RATION SEQUENCING AND CONFLUENCE, I'VE DISREGARDED SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE, AS IT'S MY BELIEF THAT SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ARE DEPENDABLE ON RATIO CONFLUENCE. A. THIS FIRST SECTION IS THE LEAST IMPORTANT SECTION IN MY ANALYSIS. I'VE LABELLED IT COMPLETED BECAUSE THE 38.2% PULLBACK HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY A 1.618 EXPANSION. AND THE 50% PULLBACK HAVE ALSO BEEN COMPLETED BY A 1.117 EXPANSION AND THE 1.27% WHICH USUALLY FOLLOWS. IT'S IMPORTANCE TO US HOWEVER, IS A MATTER OF SEQUENCE. IMMEDIATELY AFTER THESE 2 MOVES, WE SEE A 38.2% PULLBACK AND CURRENTLY WE ARE LOOKING FOR A 50% PULLBACK FROM THE SECOND MOVE. HOWEVER, INSTEAD OF LOOKING FOR A 50% PULLBACK THIS TIME, I'M BIASED TOWARDS A 61.8% PULLBACK OR GREATER FOR OUR CURRENT STRUCTURE. THIS BRINGS US ON TO SECTION B. B. THE TWO LINES THAT ARE PRESENT IN THIS SECTION REPRESENTS THE STRENGTH OF THE TWO SMALLER MOVES LABELED II, AND IV. WHEN COMPARED IT IS EASY TO SEE THAT THE FIRST MOVE II, IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE SECOND IV. WHEN COMPARED, OUR SECOND MOVE IV IS ABOUT 11.8% LESS THAN THE FIRST II. HAVING AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE LAW OF AVERAGES HERE WILL HELP US MAKE SENSE OF THIS, BUT I WILL STILL EXPLAIN. PRICE WILL ALWAYS TEND TO TRAVEL CLOSE TO ITS AVERAGE, AND ANY LARGE DEVIATION FROM THAT AVERAGE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE TREND WILL RESULT IN A DRASTIC PULLBACK TOWARDS THE AVERAGE. THIS IS THE CONCEPT BEHIND BOLINGER BAND, AND ENVELOPE. IN THE FIRST MOVE, THE AVERAGE HAS A STRONG UPTREND MOVE WHICH MAKES LARGE RETRACEMENTS VERY DIFFICULT. CLOSER TO THE TOP OF THIS MOVE, WE SEE PRICE ACTION BEGINS TO LESSEN IN DEGREES WHICH GIVES MORE ROOM FOR RETRACEMENT TO PLAY. SO A 61.8% OR GREATER IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE, IN FACT IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE. I MUST ALSO MENTION THAT THE CONCEPT OF AVERAGES IS WHAT IS OFTEN MISTAKEN AS THE BANK CONSPIRACY. DURING THE RELEASE OF IMPORTANT FUNDAMENTAL NEWS EVENTS MANY PERSONS GET CAUGHT IN THIS WEB. C. OUR LAST SECTION IS DESCRIBING OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FUTURE. THE ENTIRE ANALYSIS WAS CREATED TO GAUGE THE SHORT, AND NOT SO MUCH THE LONG THAT WILL FOLLOW. I AM EXPECTING FURTHER LOWS TO COMPLETE THE 50% AND THEN 61.8%. AND AFTER I CAN SEE FURTHER UPWARD MOVE. MY 1ST LONG TARGET IS STILL THE SAME WHETHER WE SEE A 50% OR A 61.8% PULLBACK. I'VE USED A SIMPLE EQUATION TO DETERMINE THIS TARGET. WHERE THE PULL BACK PERCENTAGE IS DIVIDED BY THE ADVANCEMENT (E.G. 50/120.7 OR 61.8/120.7. BOTH PLACE US AT THE SAME TARGET. I HOPE ITS NOT TOO COMPLICATED, IT IS NOT INTENTIONAL, I BELIEVE THAT ONE MUST HAVE A COMPLEX OVERVIEW TO BE ABLE TO DETERMINE PRICE ACTION. ANOTHER ADVICE TO ANY TRADER OUT THERE, IF YOU ARE TRADING WITHOUT A THOROUGH KNOWLEDGE OF ELLIOTT WAVE, LET IT BE ON YOUR LIST OF PRIORITY TO HAVE, I SEE IT AS A PREREQUISITE TO TRADING . THE CONCEPT IS NOT JUST ABOUT TRADING, IT IS IN LIFE ITSELF. GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR TRADES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, I WISH YOU MUCH SUCCESS. ALWAYS WILLING TO HEAR WHAT YOU THINK SO FEEL FREE TO LEAVE A COMMENT.
Short
by DayFarrell
USDJPY LONG OPPORTUNITYTHIS PAIR IS SHOWING STRONG DIVERGENCE BUT I'M CHOOSING TO IGNORE IT FOR NOW AND FOCUS ON THE STRUCTURE. ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS PUT ME IN EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER MOVE UPWARD. MY PRIMARY FOCUS IS THE BROWN CHANNEL OF WHICH I'M AWAITING A CONFIRMATION OF A MOVE TO TOUCH MY LOWER CHANNEL AND POSSIBLE A CANDLE THAT WICK CLIMAX AT MY LOWER BROWN CHANNEL AND CLOSE ABOVE MY BLUE CHANNEL.WITH THIS SET-UP I'M LOOKING FOR TARGETS: 1ST 109.33, 2ND 109.54 (WHICH I'M MORE IN FAVOR OF). iF PRICE CLOSE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MY LOWER BROWN AND BLUE CHANNEL, THEN IT PUTS ME IN PLAY FOR A SMALL CYPHER THAT IS SETTING UP. 108.72 ENTRY WITH TARGET AT 109.33. IF PRICE PROCEEDS FURTHER LOWER THEN THIS SETUP IS NO LONGER VALID.
Long
by DayFarrell
1
EURUSD FOLLOW UPFOLLOW UPS ON THIS PAIR IN COMMENTS!! Following up from last night, i was watching this pair for a while, and notice the persistence of price action upwards. i haven't given up on this pair as yet, just another possibility. stops placed at the close of C, so i'm still waiting for the downward move. If you want to play it safe you can always get out and reenter when price gets a bit higher, but in my opinion, there's nothing more to lose by staying in, since your stops should have already been determine before entering; and not just where to put your stop, but what is your per pip price after your stop. Please remember, if you define that you're only going to lose 100$ on this trade, then you needn't worry. Also, i don't invest more than 1% of capital on 1;1 trades. I don't usually trade anything less than 3:1, so this trade is a dry season trade. Trading is a business, and no individual trade can tell you your profit and loss, this can only be determine by a series of trades..
by DayFarrell
4
NZDUSD DAILY CYPHER i've been following this pair on the hourly time frame for some time now, and notice some inconsistencies occurring, so i went to the higher time frame and saw this setup. currently the price is trading at a strong support level(support because i'm viewing the overall structure bullish trend) so if price break past this level, i'm looking for a reversal at the 61.8% of my current structure. Patterns? patterns are just a face that represents something that is within the chart that is not usually identifiable by the average trader. I believe that a trader must learn how to identify what is within the chart first, before learning to identify a pattern. Patterns should be learnt after as an easy way of spotting what is within the chart that is actually saying there will be a reversal. What is inside the chart that one should be able to identify before a pattern? Ans: support and resistance that varies based on their strength.Using this cypher as example: An A leg can be formed by a support that's not so strong, however it is identified as the wave 3 (Elliott wave) that's a subwave within the wave 5 which went on to form the C leg of the pattern. The B leg is usually formed by a very strong support.. It is usually a Phi level which works more harmonic when the 61.8 is the retracement since this Phi correlates with the 1.27% extension (which is perfect for our C leg. math time now. If 61.8 correlates with 1.27, and 38.2 goes with 1.618, what does 50% correlates with? Ans: 1.272- .618 = .654, just as .654 + .50 = 1.154.(which is very close to our A-C which is 1.142). but lets not work with very close. lets calculate why it's 1.142 and not 1.154 we establish that the higher the retracement, the lower the extension, so therefore, our B leg is 0.516. .016 more than 50%. Next: .016 x .618 = .01. 1.154 -.01 =1.144 (which is practically our A-C. Our C leg is a combination of Phi and strong resistance, and also a 5th wave. to get to our D leg we must past B since it's our strongest support so far, {which is why one can trade from C-B in a pattern). Psychology now plays an important role in clearing our B point. Traders will realize that we just topped out at a 5th wave and will look for a 61.8 retracement. therefore, getting past B will be easier than before. One of the hardest task is identifying D. Conventionally persons will automatically assign a 78.6 for the D leg, but it should be assigned based on strong, Support (now resistance when bearish). in this case, there is a strong support at the 78.6. We also have some strong support at the 61.8 which we will not take for granted, but we put priority over a more recent support. Hope it's clear enough to understand. next is to use whatever indicators you usually use to know when to enter. With the interest rate decision pending, there should be some volatility very soon on this pair. A trade like this is worth losing, we trade worst and accept a loss, this is worth the shot. Most likely the rates will be unchanged, it's usually the statement that has the bearing due to the RBNZ (government involvement) policies.
Long
by DayFarrell