GBPUSD BullishThe US Dollar is strengthening, but the GBP/USD pair is exhibiting a strong uptrend. Currently, prices are testing the H4 bullish Order Block. On lower timeframes, bullish signals are already evident. The risk-reward ratio stands at 1:15, however, individuals use their own risk management strategies.
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GOLD on 31st Jan 24 :- BEARISHIf #XAUUSD or #gold closes m15 candles and retouch back above 2035.5, it can touch Bullish upto 2050 level.
Alternatively, if it goes bearish and retouch back below 2030, then only gold can be bearish upto 2020 level.
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Understanding Basics of Candlestick Charts
Candlestick patterns play a key role in quantitative trading strategies owing to the simple pattern formation and ease of reading the same.
For using candlestick patterns, you only need to have a basic understanding of how the candlesticks are formed. Also having some idea about the various ways in which these candlesticks can be interpreted would be useful.
However, if you are new to candlesticks trading, this article will help you gain a complete understanding of candlesticks.
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The anatomy of the Candlesticks has stayed almost similar throughout the ages to give us the current shape and meaning. It consists of 4 distinct values namely:
The opening price,
Closing price,
The highest prices for a given interval, and
The lowest prices for a given interval.
It’s like a combination of a line chart and a bar chart, where each bar represents all four important pieces of information for an interval.
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Body
The hollow or the filled portion of the candlestick is called as the body of the candlestick.
Long Body - Indicates heavy trading in one direction and strong buying or selling pressure
Small Body - Indicates lighter trading or little buying or selling activity
Shadow
The long thin lines above and below the body is called the shadow of the candlestick.
Upper Shadow - High is marked by the topmost part of the upper shadow
Lower Shadow - Low is marked by the bottom part of the lower shadow.
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On the chart above, you can see how the body to shadow ratio defines the strength of the candlestick.
Learning to apply that in a combination with other technical tool can help you to quite reliable predict the price movements.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 28/03European markets bounced back to finish higher and provide a stronger start to the US session. The US was mixed with the DOW higher while Tech was lower as traders now re-focus on inflation and higher interest rates. This can be seen through support into the USD and higher US Bond yields. As the banking crisis takes a backseat in the news, I expect traders will again be dealing with the prospects of further rate rises and may punish risk assets.
Asian markets are expected to open slightly stronger with the ASX200 and Nikkei to open up while the Hang Seng may open flat and find further selling pressure after yesterdays choppy trading day.
I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed with the lingering concerns for the banking sector.
A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 23/03US Share markets indexes move lower after the US Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected. There are a number of concerns that the market sees and is reacting to as risk assets take a hit. The US Fed showed concern for the banking crisis and expect credit conditions to tighten which does not bode well for growth in an interest rate raising environment. I expect that we will see more risk off trading in the coming days and will see Europe play catchup with a move lower on open in the coming session. UK CPI showed inflation is moving up which I expect will cap any rally into the FTSE100 (UK100 Index).
Asian markets will open weaker to follow on from the US session.
A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 22/03Share markets continued to press higher as they focus on the coming FOMC interest rate release. Concerns over the banking sector are on the back burner for now and expectations for no rate rise from the US Fed may now be baked into the price action. I expect to see the Fed Reserve raise rates by 25 basis points as they still have to battle higher inflation so we may see a late selloff into the US markets.
Asian markets will open stronger to follow on from the European and US sessions.
A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
BBBY Squeeze $ Target we have a critical resistant box to clear between the 4.20$/4.50$, if we clear it we going to have the price bullish momentum towards the first profit taking around 5.68$, and then the other 2.
however if we got rejected, we going to have a first reversal from the our support the 3.45%+, and our bottom should;d be above 3$.
Bitcoin Scalping Signal for Day Trading🖥️ We have determined there is a 70% chance Bitcoin will RISE from our current entry point.
📉 LONG - BTC : $16,821 📉
💵 Length of trade: we are expecting BTC to hit a $250 scalp, with a high end of $300 - minimum expectation $150.
🕰️ Duration of trade: we are expecting this to occur within a couple hours of market open Tuesday. And we can see this continuing until tomorrow. We are looking to a more positive week, pending no negative news impacts on the market.
📊🖥️ INDICATOR SHOWN ON CHART : Scot Signal Indicator
GBPJPY : Shorting the GBPJPY with a plan 13.5Simple, practical, professional.
This is a very technical movement which is reviewed.
It's based on the Head & Shoulder bearish candlestick pattern.
When a Head & Shoulder pattern breaks, it aims for a movement down the size of the movement up between the neck-line to the head.
In this case, the distance between the head to the neck-line is 900 pip , from 160 to 169.
So the break back below 160 is now projecting a movement of roughly 900 pip lower to around 150.
This makes a lot of sense as this area is a horizontal support zone stretching all the way back to beginning of 2021.
Target may be achieved in the mid term of days to a couple of weeks.
Within the down-trend a retest of the neck-line may take place back to 160.
A break back above 160 with a candle close may show for a false break down.
158.20 is also an important horizontal resistance, a break above may confirm movement back to neck-line at 160.
Trade safe!
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XAUUSD Gold : Lowest we will see this year? Why and how ;) 27.4Practicality, simplicity and clarity - The ropes to climb on the way to trading victory.
Walls of text, an ocean of opinions and options are the enemy when trading.
So let me try and help with making it as clear possible.
You guys agree with me inflation isn't going to go away right? It's very likely to get worse.
March 2022 was the biggest spike of Swiss Gold exports since May 2020 (source: www.investing.com)
Gold is a natural hedge to uncertainty and inflation which we have plenty of - So fundamentally speaking, there's serious backwind for Gold to go significantly higher.
Trading only has 2 elements to it fundamentals and technicals.
Now that we have the fundamental part of it out of the way that's 50% done.
The other 50% is the technicals, which are simplified on the chart above - Read the text on the chart, critical to understanding.
Some bullet points:
-Higher low trend-line since 2018
-Strong horizontal levels of support between 1840-1888
-Oversold position across time frames
-Bullish consolidation on top of up-trend
A break above 1940 could lead to the most aggressive upward spike since the $700 rally back between March 2020 to August 2022.
Don't miss out!
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XAUUSD Gold : New week, huge expectations! 25.4Wow! Week opened below 1935 support trend-line which was ongoing since the start of the year!
Obviously, this followed with a continuation down to 1915 horizontal support.
*A close below a 4+ month support trend-line usually dictates a 'retest' - That's when the price goes back to the broken trend-line and 'touches' the trend-line which was broken.
*A drop below 1915 with a 4h candle close would allow for 1890 as the next target of the breakout down.
On a bigger perspective - the weekly, big picture trend is still up.
Fundamentals are very strong for Gold due to war, pandemic, inflation and overall significant uncertainty.
Connecting lows since 2018 show an ascending trend-line with consistent higher lows through the years.
This trend-line currently stands at around 1840, meaning this could be the target of the current ongoing movement - Although multiple strong horizontal supports could reverse the market back up way before 1840, which with reversal could mean the continuation of the weekly up-trend :D
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XAUUSD Gold : Launch to space? Or 1890 retest? 22.4 Jerome Powell, chairman of the FED yesterday basically confirmed a May rate hike.
But ask yourself seriously - Is inflation going to go away due to this? Will this save a bleeding economy?
Gold practically called the bluff on FED's comments AND the rising bond yields.
As you can see, post FED meeting we have the Gold keep the support trend-line since the start of the year.
Since breaking above the consolidation breakout , circled on the chart, Gold spiked up by about $70 , it is normal for a technical correction down to take place at such scenario, as we see with the price action now.
If the week closes above 1935-37 , which is the support trend-line since Jan 2022, the bull trend is kept and a new high will be in sight.
**A weekly close today below 1937-35 will confirm potential downside 1890 - Although this scenario is less likely, it is still technically possible.
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I'll be posting daily Gold, WTI, BTC, Nasdaq, EURUSD and more with a special focus on WTI and Gold.
Thank you for the time to read and I'm always happy to hear suggestions about what you guys want to see more of and any questions of course :D
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EURUSD 21.4 - Powerful long position with a chance of clouds ;)Note that we have a few market moving events today :
- Jobless claims
- ECB & FED chairs speaking (Powell, Lagarde)
It's important to emphasize, such events have a tendency to be volatility triggers, it's much less important what is said and done - Majority of impact is volume and technicals.
Volume because everyone is trading and there's big swings and technicals because the swings, unless there's something truly drastic are moving the price action within the 4h up to weekly technical trend.
So with the introduction out of the way let's BE PRACTICAL!
1) A tunnel consolidation is broken up above what was 1.0850 resistance, a retest of this breakout is technically possible at around 1.0830.
2) A break above 1.0942 would allow for very possible continuation to 1.1020 resistance.
3) A break above 1.1021 with a daily close would be a break above the trend-line stretching from 1.150, highest point of the year.
Which could technically mean 1.1150 , 1.1250 and higher.
A solid trading plan would be to consider that the USD is very far up.
Using simple logic, of 'buy low sell high' , today's events may be very bad for USD.
The DXY (dollar index) is actually showing a solid bearish 'falling wedge' pattern.
So using careful risk management and patience during the day, buying the retest of 1.0830 and even 1.0720 which would be possible if breaks (very low chance), could be great long positions.
If you want to be bolder with a bigger chance of catching a big swing up with a probable crash of USD , you can consider a 200 pip downside compared to a 600 pip upside as short-mid term.
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BTCUSD Bitcoin: The short-term answers to the test ;) 20.4 A wall of text would do you guys and gals no good.. so let's jump to business!
1) Higher lows on short-term and longer-term time-frames.
2) Big triangle consolidation on 4H chart marked with arrows on highs and lows.
3) Around current rates (41,600) is an important resistance (triangle consolidation top) - Once surpassed, the next level is (43,300) - A break above this rate would allow significant upside to the high 40k's and low 50k's which will be covered once relevant.
4) Critical support levels stand at: 40,000 and 38,500 - A drop below would allow 35,000 weekly support to be tested.
**The rockets represent:
-Green one is a break above 43,300 which would allow immediate rally
-Red one is a break below 38,500 which would allow immediate flash crash to 35,000.
**Fundamentals are strong for Bitcoin as inflation continues to surge, Russia is now implementing cryptocurrency is an official form of payment, Biden is looking to regulate crypto-currency, etc,etc..
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XAUUSD Gold : 20.4 , Decision making time! Focus up!Guys and gals, let's shut down emotion and think.
Connecting higher lows since the beginning of 2022 show strong support between 1935-1940.
Is there any fundamental change to what is going on for the last 4 month? Is inflation gone away? Is certainty back controlling the market?
If the answer is NO, why would Gold break down this significant level?
Inflation and uncertainty is extremely bad and getting worse, providing strong fundamental backwind for the Gold to continue to rally.
Also, from a technical perspective, we see a 'falling wedge' pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern of consolidating highs and lows in a sharp slope down.
With a break above the 'falling wedge' - Once again, a new high will be targeted for Gold, with 1960, 1980, 2000, as immediate possible targets, a break above 1954 with a close would be founded confirmation.
If Gold breaks below 1935, it could could continue down to 1890 - This is the less likely scenario and would be a surprise.
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