DBX
DropBox Technical AnalysisPrices are moving in a sideways trend.
If the resistance at 23 USD will be broken, it might be seen as a buy signal, otherwise the idea is to sell and let the prices move in the channel formed between the resistance of 23 usd and the support of 20.50
Fundamental News
Meeting the needs of a very large market, Dropbox (NASDAQ:DBX) offers cloud storage, team collaboration and work productivity solutions. After hosting a conference call with its SVP of Engineer, Product and Design Timothy Young, one analyst is even more optimistic about DBX’s long-term growth prospects.
Five-star analyst Alex Zukin, of RBC Capital, tells clients he sees “solid potential for the company’s new product strategy, which essentially aims to be a knowledge worker’s central engagement hub.” The platform allows employees to communicate and collaborate using DBX’s own products, integrated applications and other content including URLs and various types of files.
According to Young, technology across various consumer goods is transitioning from an “ownership model” to an “access model”, with the cloud enabling this shift to happen in the workplace as well. As a result, this prompted DBX to revamp its product and strategy. Going beyond managing files, the company is now “in the business of managing asynchronous communications across mediums and even other applications.”
Zukin explained, “We note that Dropbox is not the only vendor trying to serve this need, but Dropbox does view its role here as unique, nothing that while companies like Zoom and Slack are greater for short conversations and exchanges, Dropbox is trying to provide institutional long-term memory.”
As part of this updated strategy, DBX has placed a significant focus on shifting it from an OS/utility layer to a foreground application. “The company highlighted not only its new desktop app, but also tray and menu bars that bring contextual awareness to the knowledge workers and an ability to bring in new aggregation points around access,” Zukin commented. Adding to the good news, management stated its user base is incredibly loyal and has reacted positively to the product changes.
Everything that DBX has going for it keeps Zukin with the bulls. To this end, he maintained an Outperform rating and $30 price target. The implication? Upside potential of 39%.
Looking at the consensus breakdown, 5 Buys, 1 Hold and 2 Sells have been assigned in the last three months. So, DBX gets a Moderate Buy consensus rating. At $26.43, the average price target indicates 23% upside potential.
DropBox Inc: My PositionCapital has been flowing into the tech sector since March of 2020. The only well known US tech company that I could find that wasn't hitting all time highs was NASDAQ:DBX . Low price shouldn't be the only reason you buy shares of a company. There needs to be other factors that confirm your contrarian bias.
Fundamentally what I know about DropBox, is their valuation are extremely high. There is no true value here from an asset perspective, however, we have to remember tech stocks are disconnected from reality and investors are happy to pay a premium (this is not to say this can last forever. One fundamental thing I do like about DropBox is the tools they create. They are developing a business suite similar to Microsoft Office, rather than just being a cloud storage company, which is what has been their business model historically.
Technically, I'm seeing a capitulation wick in march, an establishment of a base, and a breakout of that base, along with a breakout of the 100 and 200 week moving averages. There can still be decent pullbacks as this move gains some steam, so it's important to find a good entry point. I made my initial entry at $22.25.
If this up move continues, my targets sit at $26, $35, and $40 . This stock has potential to make new highs as investors search for where to park their capital. However, this all depends on how well the federal reserve does with liquidity. We are in an interesting economic situation.
I am closely watching $21 as support . If this is broken on the weekly chart, we are likely headed for $17.
I will assess the position week by week.
$DBX can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Dropbox, Inc. provides a collaboration platform worldwide.
The demand for shares of the company looks higher than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $23,53;
stop-loss — $22,32.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
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THE WEEK AHEAD: DBX, TECK EARNINGS; USO, GDXJ; VIX, VXX, UVXYEARNINGS:
The earnings that are best metrically for earnings-related volatility contraction plays are DISH (87/59), TECK (87/52), and DBX (82/57). Unfortunately, strike availability in DISH is limited to two-and-a-half wides, making it an unattractive play given its stock price (39.97 as of Friday close).
Pictured here is a DBX (82/57) skinny short strangle in the March cycle paying 1.98 on a buying power effect of about 3.25 (60.9%), break evens wide of the expected move, and delta/theta of 3.32/-7.44. Given its near-straddle narrowness, I would look to take profit at 25% max. Announcing on Thursday after market close, look to put on something in the waning hours of Thursday's session.
The other one of interest is also small: TECK (87/52), which finished the week at 13.46. A play similar to that in DBX -- a March 20th 13/14 skinny short strangle -- pays 1.15 at the mid price on a buying power effect of about 2.25 (51.1%) with break evens greater than the expected move and delta/theta metrics of -4.21/2.17. As with the DBX skinny, look to take profit at 25% max.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING GREATER THAN 10% OF STOCK PRICE:
XLE (46/20), July
USO (42/35), April
FXI (35/21), August
XOP (34/34), June
XBI (34/27), June
SMH (30/25), June
EWZ (14/25), June
GDXJ (5/28), May
GDX (4/23), June
The paying plays of shortest duration are in USO (April) and GDXJ (May). Take your pick in June between XOP, XBI, SMH, and EWZ.
BROAD MARKET FUNDS WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING GREATER THAN 10% OF STOCK PRICE:
EEM (38/12), December
QQQ (26/18), September
EEM (23/18), September
IWM (19/16), October
SPY (16/13), November
FUTURES (EXCLUDING CURRENCY/TREASURIES):
/NG (52/39)
/CL (41/35)
/GC (26/11)
/ZS (23/17)
/ZW (20/21)
/ZC (16/14)
/ES (16/14)
/SI (5/24)
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 13.68, so there are probably some happy campers out there who shorted the January-end volatility pop to nearly 20. The March, April, and May /VX contracts are trading at 15.40, 16.11, and 16.30, respectively. I could see going small with an April term structure trade if you haven't already got one on, but May isn't going for a ginormous premium over April, so there probably isn't much benefit to going out farther in time: the April 16/18 is paying .60 at the mid with a break even of 16.60 versus the /VX contract of 16.11; the May 16/20, virtually the same price.
With the VXX short call verticals I already have on, I'm basically looking for a VIX low (it was around 12) to consider pulling some units off in profit. On the other end of the stick, I'm waiting for another pop in VIX to potentially add. VIX at 20 is a nice place to look to do that ... .
DBX broke below descending wedge, bearishIs Dropbox ever going back to $25+? It's been quite disappointing to watch, expect record minimums in the coming days.
Dropbox Cup & Handle WatchThis stock has suffered over the past 12 months, but made a nice recovery after a less than stellar e/r. Looking like a standard C&H. Break over the neckline and we may see a breakout, backtest, jump.
DropBox 15% to 25% pump expectedLower low, interesting RSI, and great potential reward for a correction wave.
20.5$ could be a resistance, if reached pay your stop, let 50% to reach 22.5$ TP2.
Long 17$
TP1 20.5$
TP2 22.5$
DBX great buy for easy 5% returnDropbox (DBX) has been on an upward trend on the 4 hour EMA. Showing good signs to continue on an upward trend for an easy 5% return in the next couple days. RSI is showing signs of a good buy with a highly reputable company.
$DBX Summer Analysis $DBX price has been cut in half since it's ATH around $40 last year to date. It appears that the downward fractal has ended, so I expect for it to go sideways throughout summer. $DBX may need to go below the $20 support line before it can end this sideways trend. Going to keep my eye on it this summer and re-evaluate a good entry point in a couple months. It would not be a bad time to add some to your portfolio, but we may see prices go down if it keeps within the descending triangle that I've highlighted.
Lmk your opinions on $DBX!
DBX OPTION - Chart says PUT01/02 possible option play (wait to buy at trending resistance)
01/18 DBX $17.50 PUT dip buy at resistance (0.15)
IV 69.23% VOLUME 0 OPEN INTEREST 1 current price $20.82
I starting watching this on Jan 2nd, i think it's time to get in. I don't like the bullish candle from Friday though. Robinhood has this as a 0.05 increment option play, quite cheap for an educated guess play.
MACD shows a slight move bull, but very similar to dec 12-14 MACD move when it went back south.
NOTE: My red arrow line is my breakeven/no profit-loss line. PUT - anything below the line is profit
Throw $5.00 at it and see if Dropbox continues to get pounded back down from trending resistance.
*Let's see what happens*
DISCLAIMER - I am not a professional trader. These are merely my thoughts and possible moves; i enjoy watching these stocks validate my process or slap me across the face lol. If you are in need of professional assistance with your trades, don't look here. I am not that guy.
My thoughts on DBXCurrently I'm in July $33 and August $32 calls just waiting patiently through the whipsaw. But technically speaking it looks like DBX needs to clear the 33.23 area in order to really gain some momentum to the upside.
The candle on July 11, 2018 could quite possibly be a morning star reversal if DBX can break out of its triangle. Line in the sand is obviously losing the low of July 11th's candle and/or the lower trend line.
Let's see what she does! Would be nice if DBX was bought out in the next 1-2 months ;)
DBS (*Flushing of the weak holders is in progress)DBS
Slight Bearish, some signs of bull but it shall go lower first.
$25 seem to get a good support to build. If you want to time properly, I will suggest you wait for the time being as the flushing is not done yet.
I expect bank stocks are to go alot higher in the future such as 1 years or more horizon.
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Sonic
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