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CAT blue chip industrial LONGCAT on the daily chart has trended down more or less since the last earnings beat 6-7 weeks ago. It has now found support at the 0.5 and 0.612 Fibonacci levels confluent with the mean VWAP anchored back 6 months. The Bollinger Band Trend shows a narrow band with for the first time this year. The Relative Trend Index is negative but about to go neutral. I see this as opportunity to take a long trade well ahead of the next earnings. I assume CAT may have solid earnings in the current quarter as its equipment production is purchased by those in the construction industry making expenditures for residential as well as road construction and repair. The Chris Moody RSI indicator shows both lines inflecting in bullish divergence which supports a long trade.
NYSE:CATLong
by AwesomeAvani
Could India continue to drive returns for Emerging Markets?India shined as one of the best performing markets globally in 2023 despite high global inflation, rising interest rates, and unstable geopolitics. The Sensex and Nifty, two widely followed benchmarks for the Indian markets, grew 19.57% and 21.11% respectively in US Dollar (USD) terms1. India’s economy displayed strong local retail demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rates and healthy foreign exchange reserves. India also enjoyed relatively healthy relations with most major economies of the world and cautiously navigated the geopolitical conflicts. As we look ahead in 2024, we remain confident that India, driven by a host of macroeconomic factors, is a long-term story and one that could last for years if not decades to come. National elections are due to be held around May 2024. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a historic third term and it is highly likely that the ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will once again win with a full majority. India benefits from Modi’s pro-business and pro-growth policies and a stable political environment further boosts prospects to realise rapid growth. We analysed the performance of BSE Sensex, one of the widely followed benchmarks of the Indian stock market, pre and post elections. On average, the Indian markets displayed positive performance, delivering over 31% returns over the year leading up to elections, combined with the year after election results. This is despite the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 drawdown negatively impacting the performance leading to 2009 elections, and after the 2019 elections respectively. We expect this trend to continue with the likely return of the incumbent government. Of course, should Modi lose, some of the recent gains might reverse. However, that seems highly unlikely, given the state of opposition, as multiple political parties, including some with completely unaligned agendas have joined hands to prevent a third Modi term. This was evident over the five recent elections in which the BJP won by huge majority in three of the largest states with a high proportion of the Lok Sabha (national election) constituencies. Other important factors that investors might want to keep an eye on during the year: 1. Rate cuts – The Federal Reserve’s pace and timing on rate cuts will impact global markets and India is no different. The quicker and higher the cuts, the more the capital expected to be diverted towards equities, and with a strong momentum from the previous year, India might be one of the top picks in the Emerging Markets. 2. Crude oil prices – The Indian economy heavily depends on the import of crude oil. The higher the crude oil prices, the more the stress on India’s foreign current accounts. Drops in crude oil could help India’s economy grow faster and allow more room for spending on growth and infrastructure. India is simultaneously also working to reduce dependency on crude oil by diversifying into ethanol. Over the last few years, ethanol production has increased manifold and there is rising pressure to increase the usage of ethanol-blended fuel to power vehicles. This could potentially save the country much needed cash and help direct it to fuel economic growth and reduce fiscal deficits. 3. China decoupling – India has emerged as one of the most credible contenders to help diversify manufacturing out of China. For example, Apple established a considerable footprint and plans to scale up operations multi-fold; significant investments and subsidies were introduced to attract semiconductor companies from Taiwan; and there are also suggestions that Tesla is looking to enter India with a USD 2 billion investment into a manufacturing facility based in the state of Gujrat. One of the most iconic policies of the current government over the last decade has been ‘Make in India’. The government will be pushing hard to attract more companies to set up manufacturing plants in India and leverage the success of ‘Make in India’ among voters. 4. Geopolitical instability – India has been relatively less impacted by geopolitical conflicts around the globe. India maintained its neutral stance and successfully managed to stand firm despite pressure from the west by importing discounted oil from Russia to ensure its energy security, while at the same time pitched itself as a closer ally to the US to counter the growing China threat. 5. Retail flows – In the recent years, India witnessed increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market. There are 80 million unique investors in the Indian stock markets that invest through the NSE.2 Moreover, the size of mutual fund AUM is around 24% currently compared to 11% a decade ago. The strong retail presence helps add stability to the Indian markets in events of global instability and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows. Conclusion We strongly believe that India is a multi-decade story, and we are in very early stages of it. India has made tremendous progress in privatising corruption and debt-ridden state-owned companies, with disinvestments fetching USD 50 billion for the government over the last 10 years, out of which close to USD 40 billion was realised from sales of minority stakes, while close to USD 10 billion was realised from strategic transactions in 10 CPSEs – with the most notable being Air India3. This has helped in making companies more accountable to investors and more accessible via the stock market. Sources 1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. 2 Source: According to recent comments from CEO of National Stock Exchange (NSE) 3 See: Disinvestment fetches over Rs 4.20 lakh cr in 10 years but target to be missed again in FY24, December 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NSE:NIFTY
by aneekaguptaWTE
Upward Momentum For The DAX Amidst Economic Data Release The DAX in Frankfurt exhibited robust performance, closing at 16,150.17 with a 1.10% surge, largely fueled by positive market responses to German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Federal Reserve hints at potential rate cuts. German CPI figures for November indicated a substantial easing of inflationary pressures, favorably impacting investor sentiment. Throughout the trading day, the index fluctuated between a high of 16,167.94 and a low of 15,989.91, surpassing its previous closing value of 15,975.22. Key players like Infineon Technologies saw a 4% spike in shares, while other notable performers such as Zalando, Sartorius, and Siemens Energy registered over 3% climbs. Additionally, the automotive sector depicted strength with Vonovia, BMW, and Mercedes Benz Group securing gains exceeding 2%. However, not all DAX constituents experienced positive momentum, with Covestro and Munchener Ruck facing declines greater than 0.5%. Amidst the market upswing, the euro slightly retreated against a strengthening dollar, trading within the range of $1.1018 to $1.0969. The Dollar Index, measuring the dollar's strength against major currencies, increased by 0.15% to 102.90. Simultaneously, German government bond yields mirrored the global trend of declining yields, closing at 2.4510%, a 1.7% drop from the previous session. This decline aligns with softer inflation data and potential prospects of a more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy, including probable rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. Technically, the DAX's monthly chart indicates an ongoing upward trend, but the index faces critical junctures. Despite retesting previous highs, the index hasn't broken out, while recent weakness challenges price support. A breakout would signify bullish prospects for both Germany and the United States, whereas a failure at price support could convey a negative message for both economies. Supported by indicators like MACD and RSI, a continuation of the bullish trend might propel the price towards levels around 16,295.42, considering a pivot point at 16,170.56 that could lead to a return to 16,129.73. Investors are advised to closely monitor these pivotal levels as they could dictate the index's future trajectory and signal broader market implications, not only within Germany but also for global markets, particularly in the United States. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
XETR:DAXLong
by legacyFXofficial
: European Equities and DAX: Navigating Bullish Sentiment Amid EEuropean equity markets, especially the German DAX, are poised with a bullish sentiment despite concerns about a potential economic slowdown in 2024. Analysts surveyed anticipate a moderate increase in European benchmarks, projecting a 4.1% rise for the pan-European STOXX 600 index and a 2.5% increase for the Euro STOXX 50 index by the end of next year. Amid worries over economic headwinds and the possibility of a recession, the markets remain cautiously optimistic, attributing the potential growth to expectations of a more dovish stance from central banks and a potential easing in energy prices. Despite Germany's position as the bloc's industrial powerhouse facing challenges due to its reliance on energy-intensive industries and external demand, the German DAX is expected to rise by 5% by the end of 2024, building upon its 14% gain in 2023. Analysts emphasize the importance of key levels for the DAX, suggesting that a breakout from current resistance levels could signify a bullish trajectory for both Germany and the broader U.S. markets. Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD also align with this bullish sentiment, providing buy signals. Investors are cautiously optimistic, considering the potential for a year-end rally in the U.S. to positively impact European equities due to increased risk appetite globally. However, concerns persist regarding a possible economic slowdown's impact on European markets, particularly in the latter half of 2024, posing challenges for sustained growth. The current outlook for DAX hints at a continuation of its upward trend, potentially reaching resistance levels around 16,060. However, analysts also note the possibility of a drop towards support levels around 15,860 should a pivot point at 15,962.66 be breached, reinforcing the importance of monitoring key levels for cues about future market directions. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
XETR:DAXLong
by legacyFXofficial
GERMAN40 BEARISH OUTLOOKGermany, a European economic powerhouse, is facing the threat of a technical recession as its industrial production, particularly in the automotive sector, has experienced a significant decline. In September, industrial production fell by 1.4%, surpassing the projected 0.4% drop, and the third quarter saw a 2.1% decrease in total production. The automotive industry, a crucial part of Germany's economy, reported a 5% drop in vehicle production from the previous month, alongside declines in other vital sectors like electrical equipment and pharmaceuticals. While there was a slight increase in factory orders for September, primarily due to large-scale orders and backlogs, economists remain cautious about the potential for future economic growth. This economic downturn is worrisome for Germany, as it may be heading toward a technical recession, characterized by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Policymakers and economists are likely to closely monitor the situation and may consider measures to support the economy, such as fiscal stimulus or incentives to boost consumer spending and business investment. However, the situation is not isolated and may be influenced by global economic trends and factors, making it essential to keep an eye on international economic developments to gauge Germany's economic prospects in the coming months. On a technical note, the daily graph had produced an Evening Star pattern that is reliable pattern for a downtrend. RSI is still on the neutral site, but MACD is already showing sell signals. If this trend continues the price might reach levels of 14 977.5. In the opposite scenario the price might reach levels of 15 315.21 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by legacyFXofficial
DE falling into undervalued territory / Favorable Earnings LONGDE on the 4H chart is now setup for a long trade. It is now positioned just above a long term anchored VWAP to which a stop loss can be set just below @ 390. DE was falling before favorable earnings and has not yet reversed. I see this as an opportunity to trade an industrial blue chip taking entry well below fair value and so a bargain. I will get a mixture of a handfulof stock shares and a single option 4 months to expiration. The target is selected to be 445 at the upper Bollinger bands confluent with the second deviation line of the anchored VWAP. This is about 13% upside- while the option's profit potential is substantially higher. If you would like to know the details of the call option leave a comment. ( if this idea is of interest considering liking and following :)
NYSE:DELong
by AwesomeAvani
DE could breakout only if....?NYSE:DE is trying to hold above to break out of its bull flag. This is one of the companies that a lot of investors would run to if there's a sector rotation out of tech. With a 1.19% dividend and potential growth ahead, you could see DE attempt to test the resistance around 418. Bullish Case - There is little to argue in favor of a bear case for this ticker today. With the bull flag at the brink of a breakout, if not already breaking out, this could be a 425 ticker in a short amount of time. I would like to see the price above 408.39 to take a safe entry to the upside and consider profits at 418. Bearish Case - The sell-off at the end of the day could signal that the market is exhausted when it comes to DE. If it breaks the level of 397.06, we could see an attempt to fill the imbalance below to 400 or as low as 390. Right now, this looks like a failure swing for the upside when it pushed back down below the bull flag breakout. Conclusion - DE is in a bit of a no man's land. When it pulled back, it formed what could be the beginnings of a harami candle pattern. Though you could argue this could be a breakout retest, it's too close for comfort, making the bear case seem more relevant. It's safer to take the trade above 408.39 than to be too presumptuous. We have to see where it goes from here. Bullish above - 408.39 Bearish below - 397.06
NYSE:DE
by JDTheGreat
DE traders buy on favorable earningsDeere Company had favorable earnings in May reporting quarterly earnings of about 3.5 % on their share's market price. DE is a blue-chip industrial sector stock comparable to CAT. It not a fast mover but very suitable for options trading or investment. On the 4H chart DE had been trending down through earnings in a descending parallel channel and relying on a lower VWAP for support. At the middle of this past week, DE made its reversal move into a trend up. This was accompanied by a change in the volume to predominantly buying volumes relatively high compared with the period before the earnings. This surge of volume of sorts is the fuel for upward price action. The zero-lag MACD indicator shows moving average divergence Price is breaking out of the channel moving towards the mean VWAP and POC line of the volume profile. demonstrating bullish momentum. Accordingly, I see DE as well setup for a long trade. ( SL $345 pivot low TP1 $400 ( 1 std above mean VWAP ) TP2 $420 ( 2 std above mean VWAP)
NYSE:DELong
by AwesomeAvani
DE - looks temptingThe recent pullback for NYSE:DE looks tempting, but I'm not adding right now. I will monitor price until we get in between the FOMC and earnings in May. I'm eying anything between 347-360 as a strong opportunity to accumulate. DE is a core holding for me. They have strong dividend growth, low payout ratio, and a strong history of earnings beats. They are a leader in their space, switching costs are high, demand for products in their sector will continue to grow, and replacement demand can only be postponed temporarily. The management team seems to have navigated adversity well, which is critical with geopolitical tensions running hot. DE has a history of volatility around earnings releases and outlook for industrials is influenced by monetary policy. The industrials surged 26% from the September lows to the March highs. They corrected sharply after the March FOMC and their recovery pulled back again when the ISM manufacturing PMI came in below forecast. DE's price movements coincide with its index, but it typically outperforms the S&P, where the index tends to underperform the S&P. In this chart we see that movement into the lower portion of the rising channel are an infrequent and rewarding opportunity. Momentum and lack of meaningful company updates suggests that the current downtrend will follow the industrial index and that we may see such an opportunity. I will take any opportunity that I see near the center of the blue circled area and then likely take some profit above the solid green trendline. I've drawn a fib time zone that starts with the April 2022 drawdown. It has aligned with major price reversals and has an upcoming marker in May in between the FOMC and earnings.
NYSE:DE
by Ben_1148x2
Deere and Co Continues to Meet with Gravity. DEABCD completed, reverse confirmed by break of trendline. Fibonacci for incoming retracement, and it already looks like this was an early catch. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
NYSE:DEShort
by Rykin_Capital
1
CAT Swing Long Reversal UPDATECAT is now bottoming for a SALE just in time for seasonal construction and agricultural upticks. The long view is a long uptrend that started in September and ended with a lousy earnings report in early February. The beatdown is now ending perhaps for fundamental reasons including CAT has cash and down not need high-interest rate costs. See the chart for the analysis. See also the previous idea. Check DE. I see this as an intermediate-term swing long or investment or a good choice for a long expiration call contract of options.
NYSE:CATLong
by AwesomeAvani
CAT Swing Long ReversalCAT has a downtrend 10% from its 30-day high. However, fundamentally the industrial is holding up quite well. The downtrend was inverse parabolic accompanied with an appropriate volume pattern showing 3X relative volume This is sometimes called the retirement trade pattern or V-type pattern. CAT has dropped to three standard deviations below the anchored VWAP / This makes it undervalued well below fair value. I see this as a good setup for a long swing trade or a call options contract with the expectation of a 50% retracement of a 10# drop or a 5% price target For the call options I will target the anchored VWAP at a strike of $243 about 12 DTE.
NYSE:CATLong
by AwesomeAvani
USDC De-peg could Crash DAI, USDD, & FraxI want to share my thoughts on the current situation with stablecoins, specifically USDC, DAI, and FRAX. It is my belief that if USDC were to collapse, DAI and FRAX would follow suit, causing a significant crash in the entire crypto market. Recent developments support this concern. Binance has paused the automatic conversion of USDC to BUSD due to high inflows and the increasing burden of conversion support. Additionally, Circle has burned over $1.6 billion USDC in cash over the past few hours, resulting in a decrease in the total supply of USDC from 43.55 billion to 42.3 billion, down $1.2 billion in just a few hours. Up to 25% of all USDC is uninsured in the SiVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, only $250,000 is guaranteed recoverable. FDIC assumed receivership of the banks $197 BN remaining assets. 50% of all start ups in the US are said to have some exposure to SiVB, either directly or indirectly. Circle group is facing potential bankruptcy if the run on USDC is not staved off.... Furthermore, only Tether is currently above a dollar, with only five of the 13 stablecoins trading at 99 cents USD. Even FRAX, which is backed by USDC, is currently trading at 0.92 USD. The general concern for all stablecoins may prompt investors to move their funds into BTC/ETH, causing a significant shift in the market. As always, it is important to stay informed and monitor the situation closely. Stay safe and make informed decisions.
GEMINI:USDCUSD
by BIG-BLACK-CRYPTO
Beginning Wave V of Impulse off July LoEnd goal is 506-510 by as early as April, but more likely May Near term there is a decision point at 434 that will at least be tested for breakout in the coming weeks. If it breaksout expect 450, then pullback to test 434 for support, then finally move to low 500s. Risk is definitely present with the possibility of filling gap down to 404.97; however, assume wave V is realized then it would be proceeded by a corrective wave to apprx. the wave IV low (in this case it would wait and fill gap down then and not now). Highly recommended stock long-term based on my research on the company, IBD has 448.50 as the Buy-Point. DE impressed on earnings on Feb. 17, which can act as near-term catalyst if buyers pile in on this 0.618 pullback. Not Financial Advice, but this is a Buy atm.
NYSE:DELong
by JerryManders