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This Signal in Bond Yields Will Predict the Next Recession.After one of the most unexpected years, I thought I should take a step back and look at macroeconomics a little bit, at one specific chart that I've been watching. That is the German Government 10-Year Bond Yield (DE10Y). I've been anticipating a signal in that chart that will indicate massive shift in global market trends and will bring us closer to the next imminent recession. That signal is the breaking of the decades-long descending wedge. The momentum is still bearish, and this week the price got rejected at the upper line of the wedge. If this continues downards, then the economy remains in the same state. Central banks are printing currency at an unprecedented rate, and inflation is showing on commodoties and stocks and everything else. Governments are sinking more into debt, and the best place to put your money remains the stock market. That is until this wedge breaks. Because when it does, the bond yields will accelerate upwards. It will become more costly to borrow money. And the economy will slow down again. But this time, it is slowing down while everyone is extremely leveraged and deep in debt. We want to maximize our profit but we do not want to be caught in that state. That is why I pay attention to this chart and the DXY. There are many charts that can indicate the same outcome, but I choose to focus on one only that does the job. Now according to some Fibonacci levels, I predict another touch in October 2021. By then, perhaps the majority of zombie companies will have declared bankruptcy. Is it too soon for that? Will government regulation delay that even further? No idea. Too many factors to watch. So let's keep watching this one key chart.
TVC:DE10Y
by TechNerdOmar
ridethepig | A Decisive Break in BundsThe positional strength in Bunds was just too strong to contain, the rest is obvious. Now play the topside, retraces into buyers jurisdictions at -0.35 and -0.50 will attract a lot of selling interest in bunds (hence pushing yields up) and triggering the capitulation. We are still set for an emphasis of consolidation across Global Equities, this is still all part of the 'knee jerk reaction' phase. Many large hands were caught badly on the sharp moves lower, a legendary retrace is offering the opportunity for final repositioning flows for a secondary leg lower into 2021/2022. Before we can then move higher for the rest of the decade. For those tracking German Equities, the overshoots in DAX were very bad: Strong Resistance 0.15% <=> Soft Resistance -0.15% <=> Mid point -0.30% <=> Soft Support -0.35% <=> Strong Support -0.50% This leg higher in Yields is no surprises for those tracking the conversations on the eurobonds. The breakup in Bunds will also carry important implications for the EURUSD chart and 'Eurobond' positional flows: " So we are gradually getting round to what is an important component in the process of formation in the currency. Like a trojan horse, Eurobonds are being pushed in from the mounting political and geopolitical pressure. The initial 500bn EUR will still require approval from the block, and may not be a huge sum considering a historic crash, however it is an incremental step in a positive direction. It is not really about the effectiveness of the implementation, and this is decided from completely different factors and distribution is not that clear. " The market loves it...there is no question, we are seeing Europe strike a major expression on the world during this crisis and forming a protected outpost from an economic standpoint. The charming twist to this story, will be to track the pressure this applies to rates.I do not like the 'business as usual' story because of the reply: Clearly things are looking awful on the inside awful despite how politicians and media are selling the reopenings...I have never seen anything like this in my life, the unpleasant feeling that we will see a second round of cases in the Northern Hemisphere remains and that will need to be given some elbow room... Consumer confidence remains the one to track; the glimmer of panic appearing and equities will snap, the same move we have been tracking. All pullbacks should attract buying interest and outlook for Bunds remain in " Buy ". As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:DE10YLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | DE 10-Year Yield DailyI will try to keep this one relatively short, a very important update to the German 10-year benchmark yield. This is one to track as it is coming after a fresh attempt of a breakdown in EURUSD for the NY open. Here we can see important macro forces in play with extreme risk on the radar via Coronavirus with large sharks being forced to reposition and rebalance defensively for risk-off flows. European Equities (DAX) will do the same dance: Although we did find an all be it temporary but rather traditional bid from the 50% retrace ... the move is clearly running out of steam and softening the near-term optimism around a temporary rebound. This will attract sellers and those with soft hands to start taking European risk off the table. In my books the mid and long term pictures are far clearer for Europe. This will be a lot easier to see when I upload the Weekly DE10Y Yield chart with the close. In any case, the key levels in the map to play are as follows: Strong Resistance -0.15% <=> Soft Resistance -0.25% <=> Mid point -0.34% <=> Soft Support -0.45% <=> Strong Support -0.60% This will also carry important implications for the EURUSD chart so a round of chart updates on the FX, Commodity and to a lot lesser extent French, Spanish and Italian Equities front necessary over the coming sessions. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:DE10YShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Bund Yields & Rate DifferentialsOn the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all eyes on 1.25 long term targets: View on Bund Yields is shifting towards the buy side leaves me comfortable leaning into rallies with -0.077 and 0.081 as extension targets in the swing. Will get excited about the topside on a clean break of the highs in US Yields: Overall, I want to be constructive on Bund yields here given relative ECB change via Lagarde, much tougher towards the fiscal side and improving relations. On the Brexit front, the restrictions that are like to be incorporated into the new round of positioning for Brexit transitioning flows (should be completed by H120), are likely to be "conditional" on US interference into future trade deals and thus not damaging for European assets till Q320. For those tracking the rate differentials charts: While those tracking the flows in FX will know the EUR$ map already: The floor has been placed, expecting Euro to begin rallying as we enter into the final pages of the cycle. US numbers are holding but is clear they wont be able to hold more than Q1 2020. Smart money will now position before waters become choppy. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your charts and views.
TVC:DE10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Rate Differentials Chartpack A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously: For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence; Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in EURUSD: Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
Bund has made a bullish exit, potential for further rise!Bund has made a bullish exit and sees major support at 159.26 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). A strong rise could occur from here pushing price up to 160.65 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance). RSI (34) has made a bullish exit signaling that there’s a change in momentum from bearish to bullish. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
OANDA:DE10YBEURLong
by Tickmill