Dax daily: 11 Jun 2019 Yesterday, we expected a retest of 12 139 and the drop towards the trend line. Dax did not reach all the way towards the resistance zone, but the return to 12 046 level worked well. The market met both of our indications – the support zone of 12 046 and the trend line. Bulls were not strong enough in the afternoon session and the price closed slightly negative at 12 084.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 139
Support: 12 046
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability to close the gap is only 38%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
The price opened with an ascending gap sized 50 points, right at the mentioned resistance level. The statistical probabilities incline the gap closure is unlikely for today’s session and this indicates a bullish bias. Should the uptrend be formed and confirmed, we estimate the price is to reach 12 207 level.
De30
Dax daily: 06 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session started without a gap and after a short correction, buyers really headed upwards to higher levels. Unfortunately, the momentum wasn’t strong enough to reach our target at 12 064. The session was then closed near it’s open at 11 986.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 064
Support: 11 861
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
13:45 CEST – EUR – Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement
14:30 CEST – ECB Press Conference
Today’s session hypothesis
Today’s session opened with a gap sized 34 points. This size of the gap has approximately 50 – 65% probability for closing, so no strong edge here, yet such a scenario would be nice for this morning. For today, we expect a weaker activity up till the ECB rate decision and the Monetary Policy Statement. The more important though will be Draghi’s presser later on at 2.30pm CEST. The ECB’s bias could influence the rest of today’s price action. On the long side, we still target the 12 064 level. On the short side, our focus is on the support level of 11 861.
Dax daily: 05 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session is a nice confirmation of a clear support level laying at 11 620. After the price broke out of the 11 778 level, Dax shot up to hit 11 860. The momentum was strong enough and that level didn’t slow the price at all. Bulls went even higher to close at the intra-day high at 11 985, which is btw one of the resistance levels we previously highlighted.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 064, 11 986
Support: 11 861, 11 778
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 – 10:00 CEST – Eurozone PMIs
Today’s session hypothesis
The price opened the day without a gap. It is very likely we see some initial correction of yesterday’s bullish momentum, followed by another upside move. If we go long, we shall target the resistance level of 12 064. This price was important in the past and this confirms the occurrence count there. If bulls are not that strong today, we estimate a sideways price action, along with the 11 860 level functioning as our support zone.
Dax daily: 31 May 2019 As we anticipated, the support level of 11 861 held the price pretty strongly for the entire session and didn’t allow sellers to go any deeper. The gap was then closed and the intraday trading closed priced 11 918.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 861
Support: 11 735
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
After yesterday’s successful day for buyers, we came surprised to see the strength of the morning gap. This one is sized with some 140 points which is quite unusual. Dax has now entered the zone below the significant support levels and this is where the price was for the past two months. The first price action level where it is likely for the price to stall is the level laying around 11 735. With the gaps of such size, it is more likely the price continues in the gap direction and it’s close is then less probable.
Dax daily: 28 May 2019 For yesterday we were more supportive of the buyers, but their strength didn’t last long. The sellers were able to correct the growing movement and eventually, Dax moved sideways. We closed at 12 064. The last trading hours were absolutely without volatility.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 142
Support: 12 064, 11 958, 11 922
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of closing the gap is 39%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
Today began with an ascending gap of 41 points. The last two sessions are systematically rising to higher prices and today’s gap is a continuation of this action. Zones from the past analysis are still valid, so the first resistance that we should be careful about is 12 142 price. Today’s probabilities suggest not to close the gap and rather head higher. If the gap is closed, the price of 12 064 will now be a luxurious support level where new buyers can comfortably step in.
DAX That fib levels have been drew on 1 month tf, we been rejected at fib 50 that one sign of the sell, Then we see that possible blue lines are making wedge where we almost tested bottom of it with those two Black lines called bear flag on 4h, right now I see only one way how this could be wrong, that bottom red and upper blue line are making simple chanel, and we should all buy now not sell, but I think and hope that we need to sell, because of the first three reasons I mentioned. So good luck next week, I believe in RED!
DAX: A quarterly overview.We have seen the current trading set up on DAX during its previous mini bear cycle (April 2015 - February 2016). During that time the index finally broke upwards for the new mini bull cycle once both Lower High trend lines were crossed and held as supports on at least 1 re-test.
Currently DAX has broken above the first Lower High trend line (dashed) and has already re-tested it as a support once. Based on the 2015-2016 pattern, one more (lower) test is due and on a quarterly basis this is not unrealistic as the macroeconomic fundamentals have disappointed (PMI, Sales ect) raising economic growth concerns. The market needs some time to digest these data and re-balance the dynamics.
Once the upper (bold) trend line breaks and re-tested as support, then the new bull cycle will most likely begin. This perspective suits the needs for long term investors who seek safe and reliable buy entries not for daily traders.
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Dax buy opportunity if trend holds otherwise danger ahead !This is a long term chart of the German Stock Index Dax. The upper trendline was established at the pre Financial Crisis peak in 2007 and later at the peaks of 2015 and 2017. This were good selling points. The lower support trendline is giving support since the Creek Dept Default Crisis in 2011 and fears of a China Slow Down in early 2016. This were good buy points. Recently, the trendline was testet again on fears of a Trade War with China, Brexit and Italian Credit, which presents a buying opportunity als long the support trendline stays intact. Otherwise danger ahead, because of a huge rising wedge pattern of a historical size.
DE30EUR - Down again at H1Look left, the downtrend signal is activated (drop beyond 120% of the biggest Retracement of the uptrend)
Two group waves for sell:
1. At the H4 timeframe (group waves (1)(2)(3)...).
2. At the H1 timeframe (group waves 1,2,3...).
Early entry: 80% Fibonacci (80/20% rule)
Reasonable entry: Sell limited at 90-100% Fibonacci
Late entry: Wait to signal at the smaller timeframe (new price action, double top, head&shouder...)
The stop loss is at 120% Fibonacci Extension.
When DE30EUR down again, should be moving the stop loss to accord the next rule symmetry wave of the downtrend.
Plan: Move to the stop-loss at 80% of the biggest retracement of the Uptrend (group wave Weekly (I)(II)(III)...
Good luck with All.
DAX Bigger Picture View Head And Shoulders FormationI had a few ideas removed from the site as there were links in the descriptions. I am re-posting those Ideas without the links.
This is a good setup on the DAX 0.38% for those who trade patterns like H&S . The slight downward slope on the neckline is usually a good sign that the pattern will be reliable as a trend change pattern. This will obviously take some time to play out but the target to the downside of this pattern is a nice round number as well.
I will use formations on lower time frames to enter positions on this instrument.
Contact me via direct message for any assistance
Cheers
LInton