DAX Crucial 1D MA200 test! Sell with low risk but BUY if broken!The German stock index (DAX) has been trading within a Channel Up (Higher Highs/ Higher Lows) since the September 29 bottom. Following the contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) on Wednesday's Fed Rate Announcement, the price has been rebounding strongly, aiming at the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
Having already broken above the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line last week, that would be the most crucial test for the long-term trend as the 1D MA200 has been unbroken since February 02, practically throughout the whole Bear Cycle of 2022. If broken, expect a Higher High on the Channel Up that would test the 13980 August 16 High (Resistance 1) where a 1W closing above it can target further upwards the 14710 June 06 High (Resistance 2).
Until the 1D MA200 break-out happens though, DAX's Channel Up draws heavy comparisons with the July 14 - August 16 Channel Up, which eventually topped and started a new heavy sell sequence that made the current market Low. As you see the top was formed after a 4H MA100/200 Bearish Cross (4H MA100 green trend-line crossing below the 4H MA200 orange trend-line), which is the pattern that DAX just formed today. On top of that, the 4H RSI sequences of the two Channel Up patterns are very similar following an (a)-(b)-(c)-(d) pattern. That means that until the price breaks and closes above the 1D MA200, being that close to it, we can take a low risk/ high reward sell and target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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DE40
Selling GER40 break of yesterday low.GER40 - 11h expiry - We look to Sell a break of 13098 (stop at 13171)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
50 4hour EMA is at 13140.
A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum.
A close below the key support at 13100 is expected to lead to further selling pressure.
The bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is negative for sentiment.
Our profit targets will be 12911 and 12861
Resistance: 13200 / 13360 / 13450
Support: 13100 / 13020 / 12800
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GER40 Continues to find support at 20 EMA.GER40 - 14h expiry - We look to Buy at 13303 (stop at 13219)
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
20 4 hour EMA is at 13300.
Our profit targets will be 13514 and 13554
Resistance: 13420 / 13450 / 13500
Support: 13280 / 13220 / 13100
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GER40 continues in rise.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 13231 (stop at 13149)
The bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart the positive for sentiment.
Our short term bias remains positive.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
20 4hour EMA is at 13229.
Our profit targets will be 13439 and 13499
Resistance: 13360 / 13400 / 13500
Support: 13220 / 13100 / 13020
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Buying DE40 at 20 EMA.GER40 - 12h expiry - We look to Buy at 13172 (stop at 13089)
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
We look for a temporary move lower.
We look to buy dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 13172.
Our profit targets will be 13372 and 13422
Resistance: 13300 / 13360 / 13400
Support: 13200 / 13150 / 13050
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
InvestMate|DAX time for a correction?🇩🇪 DAX time for a correction?
🇩🇪 During last week's trading sessions, we could see an attempt to stem the declines on Germany's main index, which comprises the 40 largest German companies. The correction from the bottom was already 9%.
🇩🇪 The bottom fell on 28 September and from then on we began to slowly form breakout formations on the chart. We have been making higher and higher highs and lows.
🇩🇪 Looking from a fundamental point of view, the dax index is in the best position relative to other indices.
🇩🇪 Low interest rates at 1.25 per cent are unable to suppress demand for investment loans.
tradingeconomics.com
🇩🇪 At the same time, during Friday's session we also saw a strong correction in US and German bonds, which could signal a change in sentiment towards equities and in the medium term could generate an upward impulse on this stock.
🇩🇪 Turning to the chart, we are at a strong support line from which the price has repeatedly been pulled upwards. During Friday's session we tried to go lower but the level was defended.
🇩🇪 If the positive sentiment is maintained, we can expect the price to continue to rise towards 13400 points where I find a strong line of resistance.
🇩🇪 In this situation, it would be appropriate to take a defensive order below Friday's lows and target the 13400 points zone where the range of the last upward correction is also located. This gives us a very good risk/reward ratio of 3.19
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InvestMate|DAX Prepare to rally higher🇩🇪 DAX Prepare to rally higher
🇩🇪 Referring to my last post on dax 👇👇👇
🇩🇪 We are in a very interesting place where an upside breakout formation could take place.
🇩🇪After making a correction yesterday. At the opening of the session today, the dax index showed strength and a desire to continue the uptrend.
🇩🇪 If today's breakout occurs, the way is open to the 13500 level, which was determined by the fibo grid of 0.786 of the last downward impulse.
🇩🇪 In this situation the stop order would be below the 0.618 level of the same wave at 13125
🇩🇪 The impulse sequence can look like this as I have drawn on the arrows
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DAX Short-term bullish but heavy Resistance Zone ahead of ECB.The German stock index (DAX) has been trading within a Rising Wedge (dashed lines) since the October 02 bottom that is about to break. The 4H Golden Cross (4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line)) is a short-term bullish signal as the three times we had this pattern formed in 2022, the price rose more ranging from the 1.236 Fibonacci extension to the 1.5.
Moreover, the 1D RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, adding more buying pressure. The 1.236 Fib is located exactly on the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line, which is basically the Resistance dictating the 2022 Bear Market, while the 1.5 is just below the 1D MA200 (green trend-line). That trend-line has been unbroken since February 02, so we are willing to buy (on the long-term) again only if the price breaks above it and target the previous Lower Highs. Until then, selling the Fib extensions on tight SLs is our approach, targeting the 4H MA200.
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Buying DE40 at support.GER40 - 11h expiry - We look to Buy at 12761 (stop at 12677)
Our short term bias remains positive.
Bearish divergence can be seen on the 4 hour chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower.
A lower correction is expected.
Bespoke support is located at 12750.
We look to buy dips.
50 1 day EMA is at 12750.
Our profit targets will be 12978 and 13018
Resistance: 13026 / 13100 / 13200
Support: 12900 / 12800 / 12750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GER40 to break higher?GER40 - 13h expiry - We look to Buy a break of 12816 (stop at 12739)
Short term bias has turned positive.
A break of bespoke resistance at 12800, and the move higher is already underway.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Our profit targets will be 12997 and 13047
Resistance: 12800 / 12900 / 13000
Support: 12700 / 12600 / 12500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Buying DE40 at market.GER40 - Expires in 11 hours - We look to Buy at 12721 (stop at 12636)
Our short term bias remains positive. 12705 has been pivotal.
Bespoke support is located at 12700.
We look to buy dips.
Good risk reward to buy at market.
Our profit targets will be 12925 and 12985
Resistance: 12900 / 13000 / 13100
Support: 12800 / 12700 / 12600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Hit the 4H MA200 for the first time in +1 month.DAX (FDAX1!) hit today the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 14. This is still technically a short-term bullish reaction (Channel Up) within two longer term bearish structures (Bearish Megaphone with the dashed lines and Falling Wedge o a broader frame). With the 4H RSI approaching its Resistance Zone, it is not unlikely to see a rejection by tomorrow back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
We have accurately laid out this information on our previous DAX analysis 10 days ago:
Basically as it happened from July 19 to August 12, we may see continuous pull-backs on that Zone as the price breaks the Bearish Megaphone to test the top of the Falling Wedge. On the long-term only a closing above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which is untested since February 02, can be enough to change the trend from bearish to bullish.
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Buying DE40 on dips.GER40 - Intraday 9pm UK expiry - We look to Buy at 12534 (stop at 12444)
Short term bias has turned positive.
A lower correction is expected.
Bespoke support is located at 12500.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 12744 and 12794
Resistance: 12900 / 13000 / 13100
Support: 12800 / 12700 / 12600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX testing key area after short covering bounceAfter yesterday’s sell-off, European markets bounced back, lifting US futures with them, ahead of the publication of the US CPI report. The recovery is potentially due to short-covering, but it may also have something to do with UK bond yields coming off the boil a little. There’s some speculation that the Bank of England will be forced to extend its October 14 deadline to end its emergency bond-buying programme.
Despite the recovery, we reckon there is a risk that more losses could follow for EU stocks, as concerns about the health of the global economy continues to intensify.
The German index has accepted to hold below the March (12431) and July (12385) lows, after last week’s recovery lost steam around the 21-day exponential moving average. With the index continuing to make lower lows and lower highs, there is no reason to be positive, despite today’s bounce.
More evidence of a bottom is needed to convince us.
Otherwise, we think that the path of least resistance is still to the downside, and as such one should expect to see more losses.
If we are correct, then the bears’ next big target is the liquidity below last week’s low at 11810.
DE40 to breakdown from a triangle.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 12079 (stop at 12171)
Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation.
The bias is to break to the downside.
12096 has been pivotal.
A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum.
We look for losses to be extended today.
Our profit targets will be 11861 and 11811
Resistance: 12200 / 12300 / 12400
Support: 12100 / 12000 / 11900
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Broke the 4H MA50. Bearish extension.The German stock index (DAX) broke below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) on Friday after failed to break and being rejected on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) earlier this week. This keeps the price inside both the short-term Bearish Megaphone pattern and the longer term Falling Wedge pattern.
That break is a major sell break-out signal and targets directly the 11875 Support. Below that we can only take an extension if DAX makes a closing below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Falling Wedge. Otherwise as the price approaches the 11875 Support, it becomes a buy opportunity towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Selling a break of DE40 yesterdays low.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 12389 (stop at 12471)
Daily signals are bearish. Short term momentum is bearish.
Short term MACD has turned negative.
50 4hour EMA is at 12406.
A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 12191 and 12131
Resistance: 12500 / 12600 / 12700
Support: 12400 / 12300 / 12200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GER40 in possible head and shoulders.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 12182 (stop at 12098)
With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended.
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming.
Bespoke support is located at 12000.
We look to buy dips.
The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is positive for sentiment.
Our profit targets will be 12379 and 12419
Resistance: 12300 / 12400 / 12500
Support: 12200 / 12100 / 12000
Selling previous GER40 support.GER40 - Intraday 9pm UK expiry - We look to Sell at 12185 (stop at 12256)
Daily signals are bearish.
Our bespoke support of 12200 has been clearly broken.
Previous support at 12200 now becomes resistance.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 12004 and 11964
Resistance: 12000 / 12100 / 12200
Support: 11900 / 11800 / 11700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Lower bottom and recovery signal on 8-year patternThe German stock index (DAX) has been trading under Lower Highs ever since the late December All Time High (ATH). Ignoring the March 08 2022 breach due to the Ukraine - Russia war, the pattern is a Channel Down. The last two times DAX traded within a Channel Down was for the whole year of 2018 and April 2015 - July 2016. Both correction were almost a year and took place due to bearish fundamentals (U.S. - China trade war and Brexit, Grexit, VW scandal Oil respectively).
Both previous Channel Down patterns made their bottom on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension from the previous Lower Low. If we apply this on the current Channel Down, we get the 1.236 Fib a little over 11400. That is roughly the low of the November 2020 U.S. Presidential election.
In all patterns, the RSI trades under Lower Highs (with the exception of the actual ATH) way before the index top (indicating that strength was lost earlier), and when the RSI broke above that trend-line, it coincided with the price breaking above the Channel Down, thus starting a new 1 year Bull Phase.
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