DAX: Next week could be the top. Downside more than -6% possibleDAX is approaching the 16 month HH Zone while being vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 76.873, MACD = 201.900, ADX = 41.880). The 1D CCI shows that we may be entering a period of volatility similar to what followed after the May 19th 2023 High, which initially resulted into a -6.42% correction. Based on that, our bearish target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,850).
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DE40
DAX Trading plan based on the 1D MA50DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term.
If however the 1D MA50 breaks, we will open a sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 16200. Based on the 1D RSI, which is showing a consolidation following a Channel Down, there are more probabilities of replicating the April - May 2023 bullish sequence.
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DAX: Market Top is being formed. DAX hit the HH trendline on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.185, MACD = 53.000, ADX = 25.248) but a Bearish Divergence RSI. The 1D CCI is repeating the May 19th-July 31st 2023 successive peak pattern on the HH that eventually corrected first to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA200 and then under the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently, a crossing under the 1D MA50 will be the ideal sell signal to target the S1 level (TP = 16,350).
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DAX Will it drop at the top of the 1-year Channel Up?DAX (FDAX1!) is currently trading at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the December 20 2022 Low. This is a more than 1-year trading structure and as long as its stays intact, we should see a rejection below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the previous declines within the pattern, there are high probabilities of seeing a minimum of -6.50% pull-back. That gives us a Sell Target at 16000. The absolute bottom on the long-term based on the 2023 price action is the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which formed the market Lows of March 20 2023 and October 27 2023.
If the index closes a 1D candle above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up, then we will drop the sell and buy the break-out instead, targeting 17600, which would complete a +20.90% rise from the October Low, symmetrical to the rise on the December 20 2022 Low.
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DAX to follow the US positive price action?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17066.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Our outlook is bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 16966.
The measured move target is 17184.
We look to Buy at 16970 (stop at 16890)
Our profit targets will be 17170 and 17250
Resistance: 17066 / 17100 / 17200
Support: 17000 / 16930 / 16850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DE40 / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS / 4H
Hello friends,
On the 4-hour chart of the CAPITALCOM:DE40 pair, my first target is 16,346, and the second target is 16,143.
Best regards,
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DAX Channel Down aiming at 16000DAX (DE40) has transitioned into a Channel Down pattern following the December 14 top rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is fast approaching as the first level of Support but we expect it downtrend to bottom lower as resembles the declines of August 2023, March 2023 and December 2022 both on price and 1D RSI terms.
All those declines have been extended at least to -6.50% so if the current pattern continues to replicate them, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. As a result our Target is 16000, exactly at the top of the Support Zone. We will buy for the medium-term once the 1D RSI starts making Higher Lows (buy on the 2nd Higher Low) at below neutral levels. The 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) is the long-term Support.
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DAX to find buyers at market levels?GER40 - 24h expiry
Short term bias has turned positive.
Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 16724 found buyers.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
Prices have reacted from 16444.
We look to Buy at 16725 (stop at 16645)
Our profit targets will be 16925 and 16985
Resistance: 16885 / 16962 / 17004
Support: 16790 / 16724 / 16657
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX: Strong selling expected.DAX has turned bullish again on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.214, MACD = 155.000, ADX = 20.016) as it is posting the strongest daily candle of the last 30 days. We consider this move to be counter trend as the Bearish Divergence that is being staged on the 1D RSI looks like the one in late February 2023. That one also posted a counter trend rise on February 24th that tested the Resistance and then pulled back by -7.83% to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Consequently we are shorting the current rally and will target the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 15,800), which is slightly under the S1 level and the 1D MA200.
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DAX The decline isn't over but MACD can give a timely buy.DAX (DE40) gave us an excellent sell signal last time we looked into it (December 14 2023, see chart below), as the 1D MACD Bearish Cross, was our sell signal:
Our 16500 short-term target has already been hit, and we now shift our focus on the medium-term as it appears that this pull-back will most likely be extended to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least.
It was a similar correction on December 13 2022, which after almost reaching the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level (as the currrent High), it got rejected back to the 1D MA50 on a -6.50% decline. As a result our sell target is now 16150 (1D MA50 contact) and we will buy again for the long-term only when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which was the case on January 03 2023.
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DAX Sell pattern, rejection on top.DAX has formed a Channel Down pattern following the December 14th rejection on the Rising Resistance.
The 1day MACD has formed a Bearish Cross like the one on November 28th 2022, which is a Top after a similar aggressive rally like the one the index ran since late October.
That top also turned into a Channel Down which then broke downwards and hit the 1day MA50, a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Sell now and target 16200 (little over the 1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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DAX to breakdown at overbought extremes?GER40 - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Current prices have reacted from a low of 16662, however, we expect further losses to follow.
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17004.
An Evening Doji Star formation has been posted at the high.
A break of the recent low at 16662 should result in a further move lower.
Daily signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes.
We look to Sell a break of 16658 (stop at 16758)
Our profit targets will be 16418 and 16348
Resistance: 16793 / 16850 / 16950
Support: 16720 / 16662 / 16600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Short setupDax looks so good for a short. I can clearly see a broke down of a weekly trendline on higher timeframe. On lower timeframe we can also see a break of a short-term trendline, short squeeze and drop. My indicators also shown a good divergence on h4 timeframe, and a drop is gihly expected
DAX: Channel Up keeps it bullish. Strong correction if it breaksDAX is trading inside a Channel Up pattern since October 27th and it has been intact for so long that the 1D timeframe remains overbought (RSI = 78.050, MACD = 373.200, ADX = 82.264). Since it is holding the 4H MA50 over the bottom of the Channel Up, we remain bullish aiming at a +4.66% rise (TP = 17,400), which is the lowest it has registered inside this pattern. If the price crosses under the Channel Up however, we will short aiming near the S1 level (TP = 16,000), which can test the 1D MA50.
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DAX Will the 1D Golden Cross pull it back like last time?DAX (DE40) is trading within a 16-month Channel Up and is currently on the second most aggressive bullish leg, about to form the 2nd 1D Golden Cross within that time span. The 1D RSI is above 85.00 touching historically overbought levels while the price is approaching the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous Higher High of the Channel, which is below where the Channel's first bullish leg of October - November 2022 peaked and then, after a 1D Golden Cross formation, pulled back to its middle trend-line and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Despite those bearish indicators, we will sell only after the 1D MACD forms a Bearish Cross, which has been the most consistent sell signal throughout this period of time and target 16500 (Channel's middle). On the other hand, if the index breaks above the 1.382 Fib first, we will buy the break-out and target 18000, which is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and +24.20% rise from the bottom (similar to the November 2022 rally).
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DAX continues to break into new all time highs.GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 16823.
There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end.
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 16715.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 16715 (stop at 16615)
Our profit targets will be 16965 and 17025
Resistance: 16823 / 16900 / 17000
Support: 16767 / 16700 / 16650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX CEEPS CLIMING AMONG UNIMPRESSIVE ECONOMIC DATA European stock markets rallied today amid indications that major central banks might have concluded their tightening cycle. The DAX index in Germany edged up by 0.1%, fueled by growing investor optimism about the European Central Bank's pause on interest rate hikes despite bleak economic data.
The Eurozone faces a potential recession in the last quarter of the year, with German factory orders plummeting by 3.7% in October. As consumers grapple with high interest rates and prices, European retail sales are expected to rise marginally by 0.2% on the month, showing an annual drop of 1.1%.
ECB's Isabel Schnabel's comments hint at a halt to rate hikes, triggering a decline in the euro against the dollar. Speculation on impending rate cuts has propelled the DAX to record highs. The uncertain market awaits the Fed's meeting next week and the ECB's final rate decision, crucial factors in determining the EUR/USD's next move. For now, a dovish Fed or an upturn in European data could signal a potential turnaround for EUR/USD bulls.
On the technical side, MACD is still showing Buy signals, while RSI is deep into overbought territory.
If the price continues to climb, it might reach levels of 16880, but if it drops, it might fall to the support level of 16277. As a pivot point might be considered 16493
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
DAX's new All Time High sends a message to indices globallyDAX hit a new All Time High level, leading world stock indices on this rally and sending a clear message to markets globally: This rally has only just started.
As you see on this 1M (monthly) time-frame, with the obvious exception of the COVID crash anomaly (Black Swan event), the index has been trading within a very stable Channel Up pattern since the start of the 2008 crisis. The 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) has been the absolute Support during this time, holding even during the COVID market crash.
The recent November rally after October's bottom on a 3 month straight decline, is completing a very rare but powerful bullish signal that has only happened another 3 times during this 16-year pattern (5 if we count smaller occasions). As you can see, every time the index broke above a dashed Lower Highs trend-line of a correction wave, it then pulled-back to test it and after it held, it initiated a strong and lengthy rally.
There have been two major Highs on this Channel Up pattern, and those are displayed perfectly on the Sine Waves peaks (April 2015, January 2022). Both have been exactly on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension since the first correction following a market High (July 2007, April 2015). Those occasions that are matched with the current rebound more accurately based on the 1M RSI are marked with a blue circle.
The minimum % rise that those 5 events have delivered is the +22.10% of February 2020, which of course could have been higher if it wasn't cut short by the COVID crash. In any case a +22.10% rise from the October 2023 Low would match perfectly the top of the Channel Up and will make a technical Higher High for the pattern. As a result, our target is 17800 on DAX.
What the blue-print of the Sine Waves show though for long term investors is that the Cyclical Peak therefore target around the end of 2028 - beginning 2029 is 20500. Those that patiently wait for corrections to take advantage of and buy, will get rewarded based on this historic behavioral pattern.
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DAX: Approaching the All Time High for a low risk short.DAX has turned vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 80.023, MACD = 247.400, ADX = 61.180) with the 1D RSI reaching the highest levels since April 5th 2021. It is fast approaching R2 (16,535) which is the index' All Time High, technically a low risk short opportunity. We are looking to take it on next week's opening and target the 1D MA200-0.382 Fibonacci band (TP = 15,800).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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DAX Buy the pull-back and target the All Time HighDAX eventually broke to the upside following our previous trade idea (see chart below) and hit both our 15635 and 15995 targets:
The index is now approaching Resistance 1 (16535), which is the All Time High (ATH) but the 1D CCI shows a Bearish Divergence and potential short-term pull-back. That would serve as an excellent accumulation opportunity for an end-of-the-year rally. We are waiting for a buy at 15800 (1D MA200) in order to target 16535.
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Upward Momentum For The DAX Amidst Economic Data Release The DAX in Frankfurt exhibited robust performance, closing at 16,150.17 with a 1.10% surge, largely fueled by positive market responses to German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Federal Reserve hints at potential rate cuts. German CPI figures for November indicated a substantial easing of inflationary pressures, favorably impacting investor sentiment. Throughout the trading day, the index fluctuated between a high of 16,167.94 and a low of 15,989.91, surpassing its previous closing value of 15,975.22. Key players like Infineon Technologies saw a 4% spike in shares, while other notable performers such as Zalando, Sartorius, and Siemens Energy registered over 3% climbs. Additionally, the automotive sector depicted strength with Vonovia, BMW, and Mercedes Benz Group securing gains exceeding 2%. However, not all DAX constituents experienced positive momentum, with Covestro and Munchener Ruck facing declines greater than 0.5%.
Amidst the market upswing, the euro slightly retreated against a strengthening dollar, trading within the range of $1.1018 to $1.0969. The Dollar Index, measuring the dollar's strength against major currencies, increased by 0.15% to 102.90. Simultaneously, German government bond yields mirrored the global trend of declining yields, closing at 2.4510%, a 1.7% drop from the previous session. This decline aligns with softer inflation data and potential prospects of a more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy, including probable rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.
Technically, the DAX's monthly chart indicates an ongoing upward trend, but the index faces critical junctures. Despite retesting previous highs, the index hasn't broken out, while recent weakness challenges price support. A breakout would signify bullish prospects for both Germany and the United States, whereas a failure at price support could convey a negative message for both economies. Supported by indicators like MACD and RSI, a continuation of the bullish trend might propel the price towards levels around 16,295.42, considering a pivot point at 16,170.56 that could lead to a return to 16,129.73. Investors are advised to closely monitor these pivotal levels as they could dictate the index's future trajectory and signal broader market implications, not only within Germany but also for global markets, particularly in the United States.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
DAX Strong sell opportunityDAX extended its almost 1 month rise and is about to hit Resistance (1) at 16065. We've had two rejections there in August.
Over this Resistance lies the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, a key technical Resistance during recovery rallies.
Besides those obvious bearish bias, the current rally can be compared to the pattern from March 7th to May 19th, which ended with a -4.33% pull back to the MA50 (1d).
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15550 (the 0.5 Fibonacci level, on top of Support Zone (1)).
2. The MA50 (1d) on a -4.33% drop can be targeted only if you see the pull back to aggressive by its second (1d) candle as on May 23rd.
Tips:
1. The CCI (1d) is posting a Bearish Divergence, which has been an absolute (100%) sell signal during the whole year. Most pull backs on that signal have been greater than -4.33%.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: