Bitcoin Daily Update (day 193)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My latest Bitcoin Bubble Analysis led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “Still waiting on a bounce off support before continuing the draw down” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH.
Patterns: Descending triangle / 4h bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,126 - $6,166 | R: $6,200? | $6,380
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continuing to pull back after a slightly lower high.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0349%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.04% | 26 = -8.69%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 =11.36% | 128 = -13.73%
Volume: Current selloff is significantly above MA on 4h chart.
FIB’s: 1 = $6,039 | 0.886 = $6,300
Candlestick analysis: Prior 3 day candle engulfed the 3 before it. 4h hammer
Ichimoku Cloud: C clamp on the 4h
TD’ Sequential: 1h is currently on a 9. Daily is on a 4
Visible Range: 2 month lookback has point of control (POC) at $6,400. 3m-1y all have POC between $6,300 - $6,400. Expect that to become strong resistance.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -3.98% | 24h = -3.94% | 1w = -13.76% | 2w = -7.63 | 1m = -7.78%
Bollinger Bands: Just about touched the bottom of the daily band on this last selloff. Bouncing from bottom 4h band.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Just broke through another down. Next one = $5,855 | Up = $7,437
On Balance Volume: Moving down with price, no div’s
ADX: ADX continues to move up while -DI and +DI continue to diverge, as would be expected.
Chaikin Money Flow: Moving down with price, it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.29 | D = 42.89 | Similar to CMF’ it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold.
Stoch: Weekly getting ready to make bearish crossover. Daily is reaching oversold territory.
Summary: When the markets start moving I like to pay close attention to the shorter term MA’s to give me an idea of when to expect consolidation and/or a correction to the upside. In one of my Telegram groups someone pointed out the 20 and 200 MA’s on the 4 hour chart and said to watch for the death cross.
I noticed that the price tends to retest the 200 MA before selling off again and think that will be a great area to place some orders to sell
The 4h bear flag breaking down on volume tells me that we may not make it back to that area. I always watch for the breakdown of the flag itself as well as horizontal support from the pole, both of with occured. Still having one third of my short position open on ETH makes me feel comfortable either way.
If you are not in a position and you didn’t sell the 4h bear flag then it is time to wait. If we get a bounce then you get a high percentage short. If we don’t get a bounce then you need to be okay with missing out on a move.
Today is Saturday, go outside and enjoy the beautiful summer weather! Even if you are in a position, set your stop loss and forget about it!
