Dead-cat
amateur HodlerGreetings all, To hodl or not to hodl? I'm a demo forex trader and I currently hodl some btc and a few altcoins, I don't particularly trade cryptos, but I try my best to read up on sentiment and fundamentals behind the coins to help me sell high to buy back in low, or buy low and sell high. I was looking at the chart and trying to figure out where I stand with the current BTC situation, as far as I can see on the chart, Hodling is best for now? how can my analysis of this chart be improved?
many thanks in advance!
XDN Pump and DumpNo developers, 1 mining pool. This pump started with a giveaway followed by a group pump. Bring newbies in trick them to deposit XDN and then dump on them.
Research before you invest ;)
BTCUSD extended flatBitcoin is showing bearish divergence on several timeframes. The daily looks like a dead cat bounce due to the low volume, accompanied by high CMF divergence on 4h.
The 1.236 extension falls at 8426, which also is the present channel top. If and when the trendline is rejected, i expect a drop below 5k, breaking the parabolic support and completing cycle wave 3.
Burstcoins 'dead cat bounce'Burst coin slided from just shy of 1000 satoshi to a little more than 100 in about 50 days. The slide was accompanied by a lot of bad news about DDOS attacks and forks in the chain. On its way down Burst took out some major supportlevels, which now have become resistance (horizontal and upward red line). Last few days Burst showed resilience, RSI did not manage to reach OB-territory though and today the price ran into the old lines.. Most likely the rise will end here and turn out to be nothing more than a 'dead cat bounce', look for fresh declines in the coming days.
BANC morning star reversal on weekly?BANC has come under alot of criticism for their operations being a little too good to be true and eerily resembling another financial operator with links to the firm that turned out to be fraud (identified by some short activists). BANC responded that it's false and tried to use a firm that is a customer of the bank to help clear the air. We will see in the next several weeks if the daily charts are setup up a strong reversal (bullish) or if it's a dead cat bounce and flagging (bearish).
XMR SHORT - Time to turn the corner!Monero has recently seen a few tumultuous weeks of trading and looks to finally be on the back side of this event. Looks to be consolidating some and trying to find a floor. All indicators are lining up towards a nice short position in the 4h chart.
The price has resisted crossing the downward trend since the ATH a few days ago, and finally rolled over. There has been strong resistance at fib levels all the way down to here at 235, 220, 200, and 180.
I think that it will stabilize around 150 , where it had a consolidation period on the way up. Ultimate candle stick lows should be somewhere around 120-130 , maybe even lower. Great chance to catch the bottom and flip for a long on the dead cat bounce.
The market has not looked this decided in a while, I am excited to see how things turn out!
Currently holding a short position with entry at 178. Will keep this updated as the market moves.
NZD/USD Dead Cat Bounce 30min and Bullish Cypher on the 240minThere is a Dead Cat Bounce on the 30 min happening right now. Price retraced to the .50 fib, you can use which ever level you like, I like the .50 and .618 fibs. I am currently short (.71391) because of the big bearish pin bar and the shooting star candles. I have my stop just above the current swing high at .7160 and my target at .6985. There is also a Bullish Cypher Pattern on the 240 min. It completes at .6808, I will have my stop below the level at .6765 and targets at .6995 and .7110. Good luck trading out there.
EUR/USD Bearish Bat 30 min or Dead Cat Bounce retestThere is potential Bearish Bat on the 30 min. There is also a 1.618 fib ext correlation in the same zone. I would look to get short around 1.1369 with my stop above the swing high at 1.1435 and a target at 1.1087. The target is a .618 fib retrace from the entry price. This is of course, if price breaks and closes above the .50 fib zone. Also, this .50 fib zone could be a potential retest in the Dead Cat Bounce area. Good luck trading out there.
An Interesting Proxy On Oil - 6 month UCO Call OptionsHello all,
if you are a bottom picker here is an interesting options play in the energy market on nothing more then a natural 'dead-cat-bounce'. I can make a realistic argument for $20 on UCO. This would be nothing more then a normal 38.2 Fib tag, gap fill and a bfrn tag (markets just love to run to big fat round numbers). I would expect this dead-cat-bounce to occur into a generally friendly time for the energy market (heading into peak summer driving season demand). Additionally, If you believe the oil price was brought down to leverage Russia into peace talks by 'the west' then today's announcement of a cease fire in Ukraine should support the idea of a bottom here too. On top of these arguments, both petro currencies (like the Cdn $) and the oil stock index's are putting in bottoms as well.
So that brings us to the trade. I am certainly not saying bet the farm on this but if you have some extra cash around this isn't a bad idea. For about $55 you can control 100 shares of UCO through to the middle of July, 2015 from $15.00 and higher. Should price move to my target area those options will have an intrinsic value of more than $5.00. Not a bad reward/risk! Indeed, if one were to pick a few up here I believe one could see $1.00 over the course of the next few months. if that should happen I would be inclined to sell half the position and get your original capital back in your hands and create a 'risk free' trade.
So one could take a position here today and instantly put an order to sell half the position at double your purchase price. Should you get filled on the first sale then by all means get your order to sell at $5.00 working on the rest.
glgt all
Brian Beamish
The Rational Investor
www.therationalinvestor.co
BTC/USD might be calling for a mayday soon. Expect panic sellingThe ABC correction from the 305 top has finished off exactly as predicted, see chart. After the bottom of C, the downtrend resumed and touched down on the (minor) 266 support. Of course a rebound was to be expected as prices don't move straight down or up.
Now we are looking at a bearish wedge forming with a possible break down sometime tomorrow, or wednesday at the latest. The breakdown will take us down to the previous low of 255-258.
At this moment it is becoming more and more dangerous to short this market, even though there is a possibility of a flash crash to the lower 200's. Either way, we are approaching bottom, meaning despair phase will kick in and shortly after this we might see some pretty amazing action towards the upside.
Good luck to all traders!
Looking for the Dead Cat Bounce S&P500In my quest, I am looking for Mr Dead Cat the First, the very first short recovery or dead cat bounce which might be signal to us the confirmation of the continuation of a major Bear Market. As illustrated in the previous crashes, we see that almost uncanny similarities when using the Commodity Channel Index as an indicator to predict start and end of cycles.
The 1st Crash happened in 2000 which was the Dotcom Bubble, and the bear market around lasted 760 days or just about 2years and 1 month. We then enjoyed a long Bull market from Oct 2002 till June 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) happened. There were hiccups along the way, but we are looking at major crashes resulting in more then a 30% market decline from the high.
After the Dotcom Bubble Crash, we had enjoyed 1765 days or roughly around slight more than 4 years and 10months of good bull market runs before the Great Financial Crisis happened which saw the fall of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns in 2007.
After the GFC, the bear market this time was relatively shorter and only lasted 487days or around slightly more than 1 year and 4 months. I guess people learnt to pick themselves up faster, that's the spirit of the human race. Currently, we have the good fortune of enjoying 2039 days of bull markets and nothing major. No Black Swans were born, no bad omen.
However we do need to becareful, everything on the charts is showing that we are at a critical juncture now. The crash might not happen now but it's not far from now. So if you know your poker, you've had an amazing good run the past 5 years. And you're running out of Aces. It's time to cash out the big chips in the left pocket and play only with the dimes in your right pocket.
History might not repeat itself but the Smart Money, the instituitions do leave footprints. When the smart Money knows there's something bad about to happened, they need to unwind their positions. They will need to make the market think the other way. They need to create the markets to sell so that they can buy. Similarly they need to create the markets to buy so that they can sell. These are all shown in the price patterns and to a certain extent trackable. At least I believe so, due to their sheer size, the 10 major banks control more than 60% of the total money invested in the markets and they certaintly can do that.
So what can we retail traders do to track the Smart Money? We try find the bodies of the Dead Cats that the Smart Money kills and leaves behind to save their own asses