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Is the eventual dead cat bounce finally coming soon?Ever since bitcoin topped it's been in this big broadening falling wedge that has had one fake troll-breakout after the other.. this pattern is now huge and the bounce that it calls for is just getting bigger and bigger with it.. I don't think it's safe to long at this point at all, but I am starting to suspect the real breakout might actually be close this time, seeing how we touched that very important 9.8k level yesterday.. I will not open a margin long at this point but i did take a chance and bought just a little bit more bitcoin at about 10.1k as a long term investment. What do you think is going to happen? Share your thoughts in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jambalulu
1
Bigger dead cat bounce incoming?We seem to be confirming another downtrending resistance line that suggests that we are yet again in an even bigger falling broadening wedge , but the pattern that we are currently in within that wedge is a bearish rising broadening wedge , so if i had to guess I would assume this big line of resistance will be broken pretty soon, the price will move up within that secondary smaller wedge , and then we will continue the correction to the downside. What do you think? Will I get it right? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jambalulu
1
SPY SHORT : Don't be fouled!Long for today, short for the week. Don't be fouled by the news. It is a bounce of the dead cat We say: Buy the news, sell the rumours, but the invert is as valid. Buy the rumours, sell the news. Today is a good opportunity to cut a bit... 1/4, 1/2... You know how you'll be comfortable. Just a reminder: Even if a real deal is done and the interest is reduced, it's already in the rally. This market needs a pullback. That is why, I am long for today, short as soon as it weak. Be prudent! That's all. Maybe reducing exposure. An alternative could be GOLD, BOUND, Bank stocks, Bio stocks are all good alternative. I wish you all the best! Have a good trading time! Waz
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wazaby
Dream Big, They Said.... EMERGENCY SHORT! -35% Hello guys. I first want to be grateful for my two must influential posters in trading view, MagicPoopCannon and Botje, you guys rock. Now, this is my own analysis. I will keep it super short and simple. My favorite indicator is the Stochastic, it is very accurate, mostly in higher timeframes. Stochastic is my favorite indicator for high frequency trading and has helped me become profitable on 4 of every 6 trades. I have circled the previous 4 times where the Stochastic has been in similar levels where we are today. The result is that every time we reach this levels we start a 2-4 week correction movement. On EACH correction movement followed by this pattern BTC moves from 30% to 70% DOWN. Remember each candle represents a 1 week period. For those people that want to profit from high volatility bounces I suggest you to follow me, I will be posting hidden supports and resistance levels where we can profit 2-4% instantly once we touch those levels. For those who are more patient and just want to play it less risky I suggest you keep in mind the following. EMA 50 (Blue): We see that EMA 50 is just 36% below the current candle which perfectly matches the 30-35% correction in the past 4 times where STOCH has been in the current levels. I am more than sure that so many people will get fooled and there could possibly be a panic sell which could possibly drive the price down to the black trend line around the $3k area. However that will happen if we break the solid support level around the 5k area (red horizontal line). I just graduated from Finance Masters and my greatest learning was to distribute the risk in options trading. I never place 100% or my order in one price. I hedge my positions most of the time. For this scenario I am placing 75% of my order at the EMA 50, 10% in the re horizontal line, and 5% at the black trend line. Also RSI is highly overbought. Most of you guys are excited, I have read a lot of bullish TA saying that we can possibly hit $10k or $9.5k but in my case, I am giving up that little upside potential and don't risk myself to remain stuck in the -35% movement for the next month. Many are excited that AT&T is accepting Bitcoin now but in the end of the day they don't care about holding the BTC, they will dump their BTC when they feel they need those profits in USD so this is not a really bullish news like many people think. We need to learn how to be bullish and bearish at the same time. Faith is good, but we need to hedge and distribute our risk, and make Statistical decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Cincottitrader
6
Bear trap before a dead cat bounce?Good day Traders Bitcoin has been battling with our DMA50 resistance, is now printing hidden bearish divergence on the daily, and we have potential for bearish DI cross looming. The recent short squeeze managed a 38.2 fib retracement after our drop from our 24 December swing high, so I have a 168.1 fib extension target of $2780 if we fail to get above DMA50. Although we had a strong volume candle on the squeeze, we lacked any volume follow-through for a continuation of a rally, and once we reached DMA50, our buying volume dropped off, unlike the build up of buying volume when we bounced from our December lows. A healthy rally would entail us taking the stairs up and elevator down but this was an elevator straight to our DMA50 resistance. We could potentially have a drop / bear trap from here, breaking below WMA200 to set new lows, invalidating the triangle from my previous chart and forming support of a large falling wedge, triggering stops just below $3k. Bitcoin should then have a dead cat bounce, first back above WMA200, then to wedge resistance, and then a breakout with a $4200-$4400 resistance target sometime towards the end of March / start of April. When btc reaches $4200, I suspect we'll encounter strong horizontal resistance as we have since we dropped below $4500 in November last year and we should meet our DMA100. Depending on the strength of trend and bottom-calling fomo, we should have a 38.2 fib retracement back to our 61.8 fib support, somewhere around $3670, which will give us 168.1 fib bull trap extension target of $5110 (to DMA200) once we break above that $4240 - $4480 and DMA100 resistance. If we have a deeper 50 fib retracement to $3500, I'll revise my bull trap target to $4770, which would be a 138.2 fib extension target. We should then potentially drop back to our $3k support, extending the bear market, with a move to new sub $2500 lows. Have a look at the NVT indicator which gives us a network value to transactions ratio and has been quite accurate so far on the daily chart for predicting the bottom/top. You'll see that we're in a great buy area on the weekly chart (flashes green for buy red for sell), but we still haven't bottomed yet on the daily chart, and you'll see that there was only 1 day where it flashed green in 2015 and that was during capitulation. Previous chart and potential to new lows from here: Scenario where we've already bottomed: Another bearish scenario:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
3
Short US Equities. The Dead Cat Bounce is Over.The market entered an important zone of resistance, formed by important support levels in the past. It is also failing to break through the 180 MA, where it has been rejected many times during this recent downtrend. We have also formed a double top, with bearish divergence shown on the RSI. As soon as we break resistance at 6530 with force, it will be a good short opportunity. I believe this was the completion of the dead cat bounce in the recent days, and we should now see a continuation of the downtrend. I will be playing this through SQQQ .
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HBtrader22
Bitcoin : Christmas Dead Cat Bounce over ? What's next ? Hello traders. Going to open a short position around this 4170 area at the next 4hr red candle for several reasons : - We are around a 0.786 Fib Retracement from the previous 4.4k top and 3.1 bottom which is a key level for reversal. - We are making a nasty bearish divergence on RSI, MACD and Stoch, they have proven their worth during this bear market. - It looks like we might be forming a falling wedge, which is a bearish pattern. - There is always a story of power in a trend which is most of the time defined by volume. As you can see, the volume on this last pump is really not significant compared to the overall volume of the move. It was a push that was showing that the current trend might be weakening, so we want to participate in the pullback. Looking to find 3541 as first target being the 0.618 Fib retracement of this upward move. Risk Reward ratio is 3, pretty safe. What's next for BTC ? From my experience, bottoms, real bottoms, never flatten out and then spring like the action we have seen this past week. Actual bottoms are violent formation with huge wicks in the candles, enormous % variation and very brutal action. I don't define the 3.1 low as bottom, therefore I think we will see lower levels in the beginning of Q1 or later this year. I don't want to hurt feelings of the newly found bulls on this platform but I think this is only a dead cat bounce that has had a violent spring fueled by FOMO and broken dreams. Now if this is a spring, we need to see if this was the end of the action or if there is more. Basically, the intensity and volume of the coming pullback should give us clues to whats next. If BTC manages to stand it's ground at the 0.618 Fib and look for higher prices, we might be able to make a medium term higher high before going to find the real bottom. If BTC fails to hold the 2 levels that are on the chart, things will probably turn pretty ugly. Stay Open-Minded and Trade Safe. Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and beautiful end of the year celebrations ! CR.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Its_Gui
16
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 262)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “the next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.” Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 (profit taken on 80% of position) | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 (profit taken on 70% of position) | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758 Patterns: Trying to break out of down trend from yesterday but having trouble. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,020 - $4,193 | R: $4,428 BTCUSDSHORTS:There was that big spike I was waiting for. Looks like big players have been taking out large shorts over the past couple days. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.1021% (holy cow) Short term trend (4 day MA): Today’s candle didn’t even test the 4 MA Medium term trend (9 day MA): Right in line with expected horizontal resistance at $5,000 - $5,200 Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Has just started to rollover Overall trend: bear Volume: Today’s volume was the most we have seen since July 24th. It is red but I am viewing the volume as bullish (at least for now) due to the hammer candle that closed. Price broke down below $4,200 and the selling volume really picked up. However support held strong at $4,000 and a bullish wick resulted. IMO this is effort exceeding result and we should get a bounce. FIB’s: My FIB line at $4,262 has held strong. Have not seen a 4h candle close below. Candlestick analysis: 4h and daily hammer candles on high volume is very bullish (at least for now) Ichimoku Cloud: 15m cloud has been very helpful for resistance. Higher TF’s are not very useful right now. TD’ Sequential: Daily r5 | 4h hit a r9 + s13 yesterday Visible Range: Next average volume node is $3,619 - $4,366 | Next high volume node is $2,015 - $2,761 Price action: 24h: -9% | 2w: -32.2% | 1m: -31.36% Bollinger Bands: Another close below the bottom band. Watch for price to close back inside and then return to MA which is > $5,750 Trendline: Price broke out of 15m channel from yesterday’s post and is trying to support a throwback Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: From yesterday’s post: “the next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.” So far that fractal held as support since price closed above. RSI: All time lows on Daily Stochastic: Pulling back after buy signal failed Summary: I am very confident that we are going to bounce from $4,000 support. I have been eyeing this area for months due to the gap in volume at $5,000. I did start buying back some spot BTC’ at an average price of $4,225. However I am not turning bullish / calling for a bottom and I want to make that very clear. I simply believe that there is a high probability that I will be able to sell at my profit targets of $5,000 & $5,750. I have scaled out of my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts capitalizing on a very nice profit and leaving a portion in play just in case $4,000 breaks down. If that happens then I will have no problem holding onto my spot BTC' and if we do get a strong bounce then I will have no problem holding onto the small short positions that remain open. If we do get a strong bounce then watch for a serious alt selloff. People will be FOMO’ing back into BTC’ and I expect support to evaporate very quickly. Capitalizing on BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and then putting that profit into alt:btc shorts while buying spot BTC as a hedge seems like a great trade over the next 1 - 24 hours. (for ex: short ETH:BTC, LTC:BTC, XRP:BTC, EOS:BTC and then buy spot BTC').
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
Carry on my wayward sonIt hurts me a lot , but it is time to admit. This market is almost dead. Couple of month ago I've published a chart with different scenarios of crypto/stock correlation. I've studied the market a lot and in my opinion the worst is yet to come. 2018 has proven : 1) (THE MOST IMPORTANT) Investors do not consider crypto as an alternative for current financial system. For a large investors crypto's were risky type of assets, so when the whole market shrinks - risky assets suffer the most. 2) The stock bubble is about to pop. 3) Real momentum is GONE. 4) Today's volume is mostly created by traders who DO NOT CARE about the price. 5) An average retail crypto investor gone broke 6) The reputation of crypto is too bad nowadays to hope for a skyrocket recovery. 7) China is not catching the knife. What will happen next? 1) THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE , even though there is no hopium left to smoke. 2) I call DOW at 22000 by EOY , BTC to 5000 3) When people will understand that BAKKT & ETF do not make any difference , cause there is no demand - we will see a new part of The Crimson Rivers. 4) I call the bottom at 3300-2900 by 2020 , and a rise then if market can survive . My advise for the HODLers - SELL If you are willing to wait for 5 years or so - this is what I reccomend looking at ZRX,KEY,XLM,BTC,TRX,IOTA. Sorry to disappoint , but we all lost something here. TAKE CARE!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by jumberjack
34
VALEO - Is it the right time to enter ?On January 18, EURONEXT:FR stock price was around 66€, close to its all-time high. 9 months later, Valeo has been almost divided by 2 with the formation of a very specific type of technical price pattern. The "Dead Cat Bounce" As defined by Helen Alpino, the dead cat bounce comes a time in a downtrend when bear traders decide to take profit. Bull traders believe that the downtrend has come to an end and that the bottom has been reached. This is what we have seen from March to May 2018 with a 50% retracement. Technically, we can also clearly identified the Elliot Waves and we can now consider that we are in wave 5 . The fibonacci extension of Wave 1 is around the 2/2,272 which confirm the end of Wave 3. Finally, volumes are in increasing since June 18. From now, several options can appears: 1. Wave 5 finishes the down trend around the support area (tested 2 times as you can see on the chart and we could expect a strong reaction. 2. We consider the Wave 1 to project the Wave 5 end which give us target around 27€ Q3 results (forecasted for end of October), strongly awaited by the market, will definetly give the trend for the next months. My recommandation : Remain attentive to EURONEXT:FR . We arrive on the downtrend end where we could face a strong bull reaction
EURONEXT:FR
by Kevin_Tchoulfyan
CBIS Pulse is faint but pulsing with research quivers...Watch CCI momentum with MACD here. . . future profits and earnings TBD. Await patents and studies. Expect they'll eventually have to sell the farm here to pay for all the cannabis / hemp studies. Ent Value / Mkt Value is 1.02. A new medical advisory board for new medical products. One patent issued 2017 for treatment of neurobahaviors and could lead to positive litigation...TBD. This is a watch and wait scenerio for entry...@pokethebear Studies mainly on Endogenous cannabinnoid family, which are produced in our bodies, vs natural occuring phytocannabinoids from cannabis, or made synthetically. CBIS studies may be specific to proving scientific value as neuromodulators and their absorption/binding to the our bodies fatty lipid areas/tissues and possibly dosage. If there's a pHD in the room to help confirm wording here, but the study and health benefits of CBD, CBDA, CBG, CBGA, THC, THCA, 9-THC, 9-THCA, 8-THC and THCV. Aka proving the science to the F&DA each endocannabinoid does something specific (sleep aid, pain releif, epileptic med., ADHD/ADD med., reduce inflamation, anxiety, psoriasis (skin inflammation), slows bacterial growth, inhibit cancer cells (first study published), stimulate appetite, reduce vomiting/diarrhea, and several other benefits.
CLong
by Pokethebear
Bitcoin Bounce in effect?I see two targets as possible 'relative' highs first target at $6547.00 second target at $6741.00 followed by continuation of trend to the down side --if the maximum bounce is seen if price meets the $6741.00 target --> sell off to sub $6k to somewhere around $5950.00 ---> followed by bounce to $6260.00 range ---> followed by the 5th wave down to range of $5750 this is strictly based on fractal or repeat of a previous price decline from an earlier time frame. this is merely a thought exercise.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by astoinis
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 193)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My latest Bitcoin Bubble Analysis led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “Still waiting on a bounce off support before continuing the draw down” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle / 4h bear flag Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,126 - $6,166 | R: $6,200? | $6,380 BTCUSDSHORTS: Continuing to pull back after a slightly lower high. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0349% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.04% | 26 = -8.69% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 =11.36% | 128 = -13.73% Volume: Current selloff is significantly above MA on 4h chart. FIB’s: 1 = $6,039 | 0.886 = $6,300 Candlestick analysis: Prior 3 day candle engulfed the 3 before it. 4h hammer Ichimoku Cloud: C clamp on the 4h TD’ Sequential: 1h is currently on a 9. Daily is on a 4 Visible Range: 2 month lookback has point of control (POC) at $6,400. 3m-1y all have POC between $6,300 - $6,400. Expect that to become strong resistance. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -3.98% | 24h = -3.94% | 1w = -13.76% | 2w = -7.63 | 1m = -7.78% Bollinger Bands: Just about touched the bottom of the daily band on this last selloff. Bouncing from bottom 4h band. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Just broke through another down. Next one = $5,855 | Up = $7,437 On Balance Volume: Moving down with price, no div’s ADX: ADX continues to move up while -DI and +DI continue to diverge, as would be expected. Chaikin Money Flow: Moving down with price, it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold. RSI (30 setting): W = 48.29 | D = 42.89 | Similar to CMF’ it’s a little worrisome how far daily and weekly have to fall before becoming overold. Stoch: Weekly getting ready to make bearish crossover. Daily is reaching oversold territory. Summary: When the markets start moving I like to pay close attention to the shorter term MA’s to give me an idea of when to expect consolidation and/or a correction to the upside. In one of my Telegram groups someone pointed out the 20 and 200 MA’s on the 4 hour chart and said to watch for the death cross. I noticed that the price tends to retest the 200 MA before selling off again and think that will be a great area to place some orders to sell The 4h bear flag breaking down on volume tells me that we may not make it back to that area. I always watch for the breakdown of the flag itself as well as horizontal support from the pole, both of with occured. Still having one third of my short position open on ETH makes me feel comfortable either way. If you are not in a position and you didn’t sell the 4h bear flag then it is time to wait. If we get a bounce then you get a high percentage short. If we don’t get a bounce then you need to be okay with missing out on a move. Today is Saturday, go outside and enjoy the beautiful summer weather! Even if you are in a position, set your stop loss and forget about it!
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez