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Looking for a short that wont go up as the S&P recovers? KODK is circling the drain. Their balance sheet and quarterly income is very unimpressive; they don't look like the books of a company on a rebound but rather a company winding down operations. Q4 2014 they had $260m~ assets over liabilities, that number is down to a scant $75m~. During the same period, cost of revenue is down about 17% vs revenue being down 'only' 13% but that's not terribly impressive. Don't get me wrong, I like film cameras. Working in a dark room to print your own photos is great. But it is a niche market that doesn't match up with Kodak's half billion market cap (they don't even make cameras mind you!) The film market is dominated by Polaroid, toy cameras, and pre-owned sales. Film and paper are not a monopoly for Kodak in the 21st century with Fuji, Ilford and others long pushing Kodak out of frame. This chart shows Kodak's next slide. The 1 day MACD is already breaking negative and the chart below is the 3-day MACD showing that the leveling/upturn from the start of this year is over. Kodak may as well have agreed to sell their wares exclusively at Radioshack. Much of what their current business is (business services etc) doesn't have the same economies of scale that Xerox and others have. They could have held some patents and licensed the remainder to get some revenue streams but it's too late now. Maybe Kodak is already "winding down" and doesn't want to acknowledge it publicly. They don't have to wind down to zero; they can still be a single factory film manufacturer, making a tidy profit for a few dozen employees. But a half billion dollar multinational? Sorry, but that image is fading fast. Bottom line: Buy put options for as far out as possible and sit on them---Take a higher strike price (>$8) if you are looking for a cheap bet, low strike price if you are looking for a super cheap bet.
NYSE:KODKShort
by RyanMartin
An Interesting Proxy On Oil - 6 month UCO Call OptionsHello all, if you are a bottom picker here is an interesting options play in the energy market on nothing more then a natural 'dead-cat-bounce'. I can make a realistic argument for $20 on UCO. This would be nothing more then a normal 38.2 Fib tag, gap fill and a bfrn tag (markets just love to run to big fat round numbers). I would expect this dead-cat-bounce to occur into a generally friendly time for the energy market (heading into peak summer driving season demand). Additionally, If you believe the oil price was brought down to leverage Russia into peace talks by 'the west' then today's announcement of a cease fire in Ukraine should support the idea of a bottom here too. On top of these arguments, both petro currencies (like the Cdn $) and the oil stock index's are putting in bottoms as well. So that brings us to the trade. I am certainly not saying bet the farm on this but if you have some extra cash around this isn't a bad idea. For about $55 you can control 100 shares of UCO through to the middle of July, 2015 from $15.00 and higher. Should price move to my target area those options will have an intrinsic value of more than $5.00. Not a bad reward/risk! Indeed, if one were to pick a few up here I believe one could see $1.00 over the course of the next few months. if that should happen I would be inclined to sell half the position and get your original capital back in your hands and create a 'risk free' trade. So one could take a position here today and instantly put an order to sell half the position at double your purchase price. Should you get filled on the first sale then by all means get your order to sell at $5.00 working on the rest. glgt all Brian Beamish The Rational Investor www.therationalinvestor.co
AMEX:UCOLong
by CRInvestor
Possible scenarios over the next day or twoRight now, the market is sandwiched between two vital levels of support and resistance. If it breaks down, that confirms a move to the $220s. If it breaks up, then we can expect to see a little bit of consolidation in this are followed by a steady move toward $400. Both scenarios are plausible at this point, but I wouldn't underestimate the bulls at this point because bull markets often surprise everyone. Many people are expecting a heavy retrace, but this may turn out to simply be the beginning of an even bigger bull market that will make the recent parabolic move look like peanuts. Overall, I'm still very bullish long-term. As I've mentioned before, I think we've established a long-term bottom and I don't think this is just a bullish retrace in the middle of a bear trend.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MoonTrader
4
BTC/USD might be calling for a mayday soon. Expect panic sellingThe ABC correction from the 305 top has finished off exactly as predicted, see chart. After the bottom of C, the downtrend resumed and touched down on the (minor) 266 support. Of course a rebound was to be expected as prices don't move straight down or up. Now we are looking at a bearish wedge forming with a possible break down sometime tomorrow, or wednesday at the latest. The breakdown will take us down to the previous low of 255-258. At this moment it is becoming more and more dangerous to short this market, even though there is a possibility of a flash crash to the lower 200's. Either way, we are approaching bottom, meaning despair phase will kick in and shortly after this we might see some pretty amazing action towards the upside. Good luck to all traders!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by moker-X
6
Looking for the Dead Cat Bounce S&P500In my quest, I am looking for Mr Dead Cat the First, the very first short recovery or dead cat bounce which might be signal to us the confirmation of the continuation of a major Bear Market. As illustrated in the previous crashes, we see that almost uncanny similarities when using the Commodity Channel Index as an indicator to predict start and end of cycles. The 1st Crash happened in 2000 which was the Dotcom Bubble, and the bear market around lasted 760 days or just about 2years and 1 month. We then enjoyed a long Bull market from Oct 2002 till June 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis(GFC) happened. There were hiccups along the way, but we are looking at major crashes resulting in more then a 30% market decline from the high. After the Dotcom Bubble Crash, we had enjoyed 1765 days or roughly around slight more than 4 years and 10months of good bull market runs before the Great Financial Crisis happened which saw the fall of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns in 2007. After the GFC, the bear market this time was relatively shorter and only lasted 487days or around slightly more than 1 year and 4 months. I guess people learnt to pick themselves up faster, that's the spirit of the human race. Currently, we have the good fortune of enjoying 2039 days of bull markets and nothing major. No Black Swans were born, no bad omen. However we do need to becareful, everything on the charts is showing that we are at a critical juncture now. The crash might not happen now but it's not far from now. So if you know your poker, you've had an amazing good run the past 5 years. And you're running out of Aces. It's time to cash out the big chips in the left pocket and play only with the dimes in your right pocket. History might not repeat itself but the Smart Money, the instituitions do leave footprints. When the smart Money knows there's something bad about to happened, they need to unwind their positions. They will need to make the market think the other way. They need to create the markets to sell so that they can buy. Similarly they need to create the markets to buy so that they can sell. These are all shown in the price patterns and to a certain extent trackable. At least I believe so, due to their sheer size, the 10 major banks control more than 60% of the total money invested in the markets and they certaintly can do that. So what can we retail traders do to track the Smart Money? We try find the bodies of the Dead Cats that the Smart Money kills and leaves behind to save their own asses
FX:SPX500
by topgun76