Rising wedge CONFIRMED (bearish breakdown) $27,333 (0.618 fib)Good morning traders,
We've had quite the eventful Saturday morning, (6:30am currently where I'm from) after breaking down from the rising wedge in my previous technical analysis I've posted for the community.
This is starting to look like a dead cat bounce before continuation to the downside.
Why?
1: No volume on the relief pump (which tells me this is likely to fail on the recovery pump)
2: We just broke down from yet another rising wedge after retesting the broken trend line that we broke down from on January 21st.
3: Lower highs, lower lows.
4: Previous support levels are being flipped into resistance.
I've created a YouTube channel and it's in the works now, and I'm very excited to be able to make technical analysis in depth and detail with daily/weekly videos that I'm sure will help you guys out!
Please get this technical analysis to 30+ likes to unlock the next daily post (which will be tomorrow) 👍
Deadcatbounce
Dead Cat Bounce ScenarioHello, dear subscribers!
Today we are going to examine a very interesting chart pattern which can help you to find the hidden danger in the market.
The dead cat bounce is the reverse bearish pattern, hence the market should be in the uptrend before it's formation.
After the swing high point is reached the sharp price drop usually follows. When we are able to identify the swing low we shoud measure the first bounce height. For this purpose we can use the Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing high to the swing low.
For the traditional markets it is typically used the 0.5 Fibonacci level, but on the cryptomarkets the 0.61 level can be used too due to high volatility.
If the price was unable to close above this Fibonacci level during the first bounce, there is a high probability of dead cat bounce scenario, when the price continue to fall and the global downtrend changes the uptrend.
We use the current Bitcoin price action to illustrate this pattern. There is a big danger now to execute exactly this scenario. Please, be careful!
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
TSLA: Next steps.Hello traders and investors! So, Tesla hit our target today! The $ 359 proved to be a strong support for the stock. Now, let’s see how to proceed.
First, keep in mind that Tesla is still in a short-term bear trend , and the 21 ema, along with the previous supports, are going to work as resistances next. Right now, TSLA is struggling at its first resistance, which is the blue line in the chart ($398). If this point will be defeated, the price will seek the region between the 21 ema and the red line at $ 408.
If TSLA loses the black line around $ 360 the market will see this rally as a Dead Cat Bounce , and it could drop a little further.
Only the daily chart can tell us better the next targets:
As we already discussed here, the $ 359 is a strong support, and today’s reaction confirms this. If it closes this way, we may see a Piercing Line candlestick pattern, just above a support zone. This would be a good indicator that Tesla could resume its bull trend.
For now, the 21 ema and the red line at $ 408 are going to work as resistances. According to the Principle of Polarity in Technical Analysis, a lost support is going to work as resistance in the future and vice-versa.
So far, all we can say is that Tesla is going to hit its resistances, and if defeated, it will seek further resistances, like the $ 461. Then we’ll see if Tesla will retest the All Time High or not.
On the other hand, if Tesla fails to defeat its resistances, it may drop again to the $ 359 region, and if it trades below it, the $ 329 is the next target.
We are going to have our answer soon, and if you liked this analysis, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my ideas. Every day I share a few thoughts with you.
I wish you all the best of luck.
AAPL: Another Dead Cat Bounce?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Apple is doing today!
First, AAPL is doing a pullback, as we’ve been warning here since the beginning of this month (links to previous AAPL analysis below) and the hourly chart is still very bearish.
It lost the support around the pink line at $ 110, and now it is trading under the 21 ema, doing descending tops and bottoms . There is no reversal sign ahead, and it seems the bear trend will persist a little longer.
Let’s see the daily chart for more clues:
Apple just filled one of its gaps (blue area), which we have been talking about since my last analysis, on Sep. 10, and today’s candlestick is the least positive (so far), which is also normal, as the gap will work as a support in the short-term.
But today’s candle could be just a quick rally in the hourly chart, a characteristic of a Dead Cat Bounce pattern. Unless we don’t see a clear reaction on AAPL in the next few days, the $100 (middle pink line) will be the next target for it.
Unless Apple starts trading above the 21 ema in the hourly chart again, and starts doing ascending tops and bottoms , the bearish momentum will continue, and so far, the reaction didn’t come.
But I confess if today’s end up being a Piercing Line pattern I would see a little light at the end of the tunnel, but it is too soon to say this. And if you liked this analysis, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
Trade well and stay safe.
SPX: In-depth analysis and possible scenarios.Hello traders and investors! It is Friday, and as usual, let’s do our Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) on SPX, starting with the hourly chart!
The momentum is still bearish for the index, but the support around the red line (3329) is holding the price pretty well. But SPX is doing descending top, meaning the buyers are not strong enough to keep the prices up.
What could make me believe the bulls are gaining the upper hand again? When the 21 ema works as a support again, instead of resistance . It will be a great start.
Now, let’s see the daily chart:
When SPX lost this trendline , we could tell the bull trend was losing strength. The thing is that the recent movement on SPX could be a Dead Cat Bounce: A quick recovery to the 21 ema (which worked as a resistance) to resume the fall.
This will be true if SPX loses it support in the hourly chart, which will trigger a pivot point with a target at the red line in the daily chart (3280). Unless we don’t see a clear reaction, this is the natural movement for SPX.
Now, to finish our study, let’s see how the weekly candlestick closed today:
The weekly chart is giving some top signs, although the trend is still bullish. The thing is that SPX did a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, which was triggered this week, and it closed under the yellow line, which is the previous top.
Since SPX is losing strength on every time frame, the weekly chart suggests a pullback to the 21 ema, or to the purple line at 3232, which is near our target in the daily chart (3280). So, this seems to be an important price level for SPX.
These are the targets and scenarios we can work with the index, and if you made it this far, please, support this idea if it helped you! And I invite you to follow me to keep in touch with my analyses. Every day, I’ll be here to update you about the market, and you may find something helpful around here.
Either way, stay safe.
Have a great weekend!
TSLA: Dead Cat Bounce?Hello traders and investors! Would this be a Dead Cat Bounce? Or will Tesla fly again? There are some key points to keep in mind.
First, if we look at the hourly chart, Tesla is just doing a pullback to the 21 ema, which is normal and expected. The problem is that the pullback is too intense, and this spoils the bullish momentum.
Since the stock gapped up today, it could’ve left us with an Island Reversal chart pattern, but since today’s gap was quickly closed, this indicates that the bulls lack the strength they need to continue the trend.
On the bright side, Tesla is in a support zone, made of the 21 ema, the gap and the blue line at $ 372.
Now let’s see the daily chart:
Tesla filled the gap (yellow area) as we thought, and it is going up today. Despite of this, today’s candlestick is quite bearish, and Tesla is still trading under the 21 ema, so, the trend is still bearish.
If Tesla trades under today’s candle low, of if it loses the purple line at $ 359, it will enter in a clear bear territory, and it will just seek for further supports. The gap around $ 284 and the red line at $ 273 are important points to keep in mind.
Yesterday Tesla did a good reaction, it was not great, but not bad. Only good. The problem is that yesterday’s volume was low, and this could indicate that this reaction is just a Dead Cat Bounce.
I would be more convinced that the bull trend will resume if Tesla does a bullish pivot in the hourly chart, meaning, it must trade above $ 398.96. This would be a good start, and the reversal sign the bulls need.
And if you read this far, please, support this idea! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses! I’m sure you’ll find something interesting around here.
Stay safe.
BTCUSD: Inverse Head & Shoulders Fracta - Deadcat to $9.4K?Bitcoin is starting to form the previous inverse head & shoulders pattern on a smaller scale, potentially creating the continuation pattern of a bear trap followed by dead cat bounce to $9,400 support turned resistance, before moving back below $9K for lower lows after the monthly (as well as quarterly and bi-annual candle) closes. Based on larger time-frames, $8.8-$8.95K should act as strong volume support.
RSI & CMF are diverging with the similar setup. RSI oversold double bottom currently testing neutral zone within right shoulder, CMF bearish selling pressure divergence from left shoulder to head flips to buying pressure and re-tests the neutral zone in the right shoulder. Below $8,637 (50 Week MA), price could fall fast if bears follow through with sufficient volume.
It's the perfect setup for a bear trap, followed by the obvious bull trap into strong resistance.
Candle closing metrics based on current price:
Monthly gain/loss: -4.28% (bearish)
Quarterly gain/loss: +40.95% (bullish)
Bi-annual gain/loss: +23.23% (bullish)
4hr view continued: A few possible scenarios
Daily view: Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 Extrapolation
Weekly view: Logarithmic Curve & Network Growth : $100K in 2021?
BTCUSD | Decisive moment - break resistance or further fall?Market players expected Bitcoin's price rise to the June's local high of $10 425 until yesterdays dump. From the early morning sellers increased pressure and from $9 800 the price went down until Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level where 4H EMA 55 was broken down which resulted in a sharp decrease to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $9 016.
If prior price action was not pumped this level usually acts as a reversal point. The scenario of local support withstand was confirmed and BTCUSD bounced upward. Currently it consolidates to try breaking the resistance which should happen today. However there is no pressure and momentum power. Current price action seems like a "Dead cat bounce pattern", thus the decline may continue.
In the case resistance of $9 554 hold we risk to have another sharp decrease which could be stopped only when Bitcoin hits strong support level of $8 600. Which is drawn with a yellow line at the chart. As it can be seen this level was confirmed 5 times and should withstand again
Be safe and good luck in trades!
Best regards,
SkyRock Signals
O Pulo do Gato MortoMotivos para aceditar que estamos apenas vendo um "pulo do gato morto":
1) Atingimos a retração de 0,618 de toda a queda;
2) Atingimos o alvo de 100% do pivo de alta que se formou na reversão;
3) O alvo atingido está no mesmo nível da mm200 que é uma média bem forte; Além do preço atual ter atingido o alvo dos tópicos anteriores, deixamos um martelo invertido no alvo.
Todos os itens listados são baseados em Analise Técnica. Falando de uma maneira fundamentalista, o que vemos foi uma subida baseada na injeção de trilhões de dolares de todos os bancos centrais criando um descolamento muito grande da realidade. As empresas estão com números cada vez piores devido a crise do Covid. Uma hora o mercado vai abrir o olho para essa realidade....
#BankNifty - Triangle broke out Triangle is breaking out on the upside, waiting on Retest to enter a long position, there are always so many gaps on traditional markets hence I prefer to use Line chart instead of candlesticks for swing trading setups
will post a R:r setup in timeline once we CLOSE above the yellow trendline
weekly MACD is also printing bullish signal about to cross
also there is a double Bottom formed on the weekly time frame
I have posted some Bank charts as well they are all forming same patterns & looking for a Relief rally.
I still consider this bounces as dead cat bounce mainly because Vaccine for Covid-19 is not available for the masses, as long as not every human has been vaccinated the fear of WAVE 2 hitting us will be there, we are also opening up our country which is understandable as second option is much worse for the economy - Depression!!
we have to face the fact & start to live with this virus, there are only 2 emotions that really matters FEAR & GREED, I won't suggest you to be TOO GREEDY with this bounce, keep taking profits at every resistance
There are stocks charts already updated in my profile make sure to check them out :)
do let me know your thoughts on current market situation & the pandemic we are facing in the comments
#Banknifty - Relief soon Looking at the charts we are trading inside a descending triangle, after the dump, we had this could also be a continuation to lower levels but i see a relief rally coming soon in markets. a final pump before another major crash.
one more thing noting here is this possible H&S in the making, there is a low chance of this working out as we are at the BOTTOM not the top still unless we break the red resistance line this will be valid
Short BEL 20 indexAs seen there is a historical low resistance level @3123.7, and a fibonacci ratio of 0.382 @3091.265
I've tried to draw the small bullish trendline which will be colliding with these very soon.
This might indicate an end of this short term increase and a fallback to the bearish trend known as the CoVid19 crash or atleast a long term battle trying to break through this heavy resistance level.
Why the market doesn't just fall straight downI read so many damn comments from people claiming "manipulation" and that the markets are rigged. The usual scapegoat is the Fed "buying stocks". There's a case for those claims, sure, but maybe there's also more rationale for buying and rallying, in spite of a bear market or market crash, than those small brains can handle.
First, remember that for every trade there is a buyer and a seller . You'll often hear sayings like "more buyers than sellers" or vise-versa but that's mostly incorrect.. there may be more interest in buying than selling, but if someone buys 100 shares of a stock, there is someone on the other side of the table selling those 100 shares.
So what's in it for those poor schmucks that buy the bottoms? Let's dive in to a few individual stocks that got hammered and see what the thesis for buying and rallying is.
Starting with Boeing $BA--
You can see that Boeing fell about 75% from recent highs from the COVID-19 crash. A masterful trader who shorted at the very top and took profits at the very bottom made some big dough.
And yet, someone who bought the bottom and sold the highs only 8 days later probably made MORE* money as share prices rocketed up 110%!
Subsequent movement has a 35% drop for the shorts followed by a bounce up that has so far peaked at 37% at this writing but may have a little more juice in it. So already whoever bought this second dip made more than whoever sold the dead cat bounce.
Here's another one. $RCL, one of many cruise companies that have been slaughtered by the pandemic (which btw I read is NOT eligible for any govt bailout)-
Following an 86% drop, RCL rallied back 157% in only 8 days.
After this dead cat bounce, there was a 56% drop followed by a (thus far) 80% pop.
Here's $MGM-
I like to think that the saying "tie goes to the runner" in stocks applies to those who are long. Here are some quick reasons why-
Speaking strictly to shares of stock and without margin, a long position's risk is limited to the investment. Someone who buys 100 shares of $BA at $89.00 can only lose $8,900. Someone who shorts 100 shares at $89 theoretically has UNLIMITED RISK and losses can exceed investment! If a short seller is stubborn and holds on to that short all the way up to (theoretically) $890 a share, they need to come up with $80,100 somehow. And there are margin fees on top of that. Imagine a massive hedge fund or other institution and instead of 100 shares it was more like 1,000,000 shares- do you think they prefer limited risk or unlimited risk?
Shorts see diminishing returns. Much like someone buying 100 x $89 can only lose $8,900, someone shorting can only make a maximum $8,900. Someone buying 100 x $89 has no ceiling to their profits.
Usually over a long enough time long positions turn into a good investment. There's a decent chance that 10 years from now SPY shares may trade for $1000+/share. Also that's 10 years of dividends. Casual long-term investors and avg cost'ers can understand this.
There are a lot of very angry bears out there as well as confused traders/investors that keep refreshing charts of the COVID cases and deaths. They are looking at news and seeing horror headlines and economic data like unemployment #s. And they are wondering, "Why are we rallying?" Think outside the box. These are likely all 'fake rallies' and 'dead cat bounces', but that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made from buying lows and selling highs. As I discussed in my Buying vs Selling ideas, there's also the potential that we've run out of parties interested in selling their shares for only 20% of what they were. I might list a car for sale on Craiglist for $10,000 and if all I get are offers for $2,000, I might just decide to keep the car. At least for now. Someone later may offer $6,000 or I may get in a position of needing to sell and willing to accept $1,000.
* One small detail: I know that buying or short selling stocks isn't the only way to trade. Someone who bought puts instead of short selling could have made a hell of a lot more than 80% profits on these plunges.
Will we see a relief bounce from ETHEven if we are gonna make a LL, which seems possible (see explanations on the chart)
I do think we are gonna see a bounce first.
I can play this plan with 2 scenarios
1-Bounce can be longed on LTF ( we are trending bearish so getting stopped is likely)
2- I can wait to see Resistances to work and short the close on lower time frames
I still have spot ETH so i'm not gonna overexposure myself with the long play atm, need to wait and catch new short signal
GLHF