BTC-USD: An update !Hello everyone and happy Saturday.
I want to give you an update about the #BTC situation. As I told you in my last idea (the related idea), there were 2 possible scenarios for the evolution of bitcoin. The first was that the zigzag was completed so at the moment we are looking for an impulse. I talk about this WXY pattern:
The second idea was that we are in an extended flat, where the last wave is the fifth wave or the final wave of the flat. I talk about the ABC pattern:
Actually, there is another alternative that is path compatible with the alternative of ABC pattern and it is that we are always in a double three pattern, as you can see here by the WXY green pattern:
So in the first idea and this last idea, there is no problem because in both cases we are looking for a bear market.
Now, people in trading view are talking about the death cross at this moment. I don't use MA but this can be in line with the first and last idea. So... bear market.
So... by now we are in what I think to be a triangle pattern. Now, our job is to understand if this triangle is finished or we miss wave E yet. So we have these 2 cases:
1:
2:
I think that is the first view because what I call wave A in the first scenario seems to be like a corrective wave.
But... we need to follow the evolution of the market and see.
In conclusion
The first and last idea ( bear market) now seems to be more likely.
So, we want to wait for the broke of this triangle and then take a position. By now, the market remains in a side movement, and in this case, it is not convenient to take a position.
Have a nice weekend!
Yours Stock Stork
Deathcross
BTC 1D Chart: Finally Death Cross HappenedA death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. Bitcoin might be headed for a "death cross," potentially a worrying pattern on price charts.
After Death cross happened First BTC try to pull back to MA(50) or maybe MA(200), if rejected then that is the beginning bear market.
Short term : Bullish
Mid Term : Bearish
BTC - Trend Line Support BrokenBTC is looking a bit bearish for the next few weeks. The current trend line support was broken, and the next level of support is around $34.5k. With the impending Death Cross coming in a few days, I'm predicting a bearish market for the next few weeks.
According to Kraken’s research, the previous instances of death crosses on the daily chart coincided with “either a sell-off in the days that followed or a continued macro downtrend that confirmed a bear market.”
Death Cross
BTC Bull Run turning into Bear Trend (Death Cross), or what if?End of bull trend?
These last few days we see more and more people talking about the upcoming Death Cross on the Daily BTC chart and the "2019 fractal" as you can see here below:
A Death Cross indicating the end of a strong bull trend. In turn the start of consolidation/correction or even a longer lasting bear trend. Following the explanation of a Death Cross (Golden Cross) on Investopedia these are the most important takeaways:
- A golden cross suggests a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross suggests a long-term bear market.
- Either crossover is considered more significant when accompanied by high trading volume.
- Once the crossover occurs, the long-term moving average is considered a major support level (in the case of the golden cross) or resistance level (in the instance of the death cross) for the market from that point forward.
- Either cross may occur as a signal of a trend change, but they more frequently occur as a strong confirmation of a change in trend that has already taken place.
BUT, what if...?
I'd like to add another interesting fractal to the discussion. The 2020 August-September fractal. NOTE: different timeframes.
First of all the top consolidation of the price is pretty similar to the price action we saw the last four months for BTC on the daily chart. Additionally the RSI shows similar movement and levels at several moments in time when comparing both.
The only thing which differs is the run up to the top price levels which is pretty steep in 2020 compared to Feb 2021.
Then considering the Death Cross situation. (Im using EMAs here) We must admit the higher the timeframe the more significant a situation is. To get the best comparison we found the 8H TF reflects the current situation in the best way.
Price dropped and started to consolidate. For the first time now price made a local higher high and right at that point the cross is about to happen.
Where will this lead to?
So now lets look what happened in 2020 (as we all know of course) and lets project that to the current situation in order to follow the potential continuation of the fractal.
First if we follow the price action it will look something like drawn by the yellow brushed line. It might not follow it that strict but sideways choppiness is definitely very much possible until the end of the summer. Also the pullback to 49K~ish aligns with the 0.618 fib pullback level of the latest drop.
Second following the EMAs, which did cross several times, price bouncing around it but no bear trend started there.
Finally, if we look into the future where would the target of the fractal end?
- Following the increase in price of 53K, BTC would get to around 93K.
- Following the increase in percentage of 497%, BTC would get to around 240K.
No guarantee whatsoever of course. The main thing I wanted to show here is that if and once we do a pullback of the downward move up to 49K, even if we get rejected again and drop down to current price levels, the market still doesn't have to be in a multi year bear trend yet.
—————
Do Your Own Research (of course)
Trade at own risk (of course)
Only trade what you can afford to lose (of course)
Bitcoin Death CrossIt's happened before and it's about to happen again. Let's take a poll — I'll tally up the results if enough of you reply and we'll see who's got the best predictions/strategies for this "special" event.
1. By how much will the price of BTC drop (if any)?
2. Have you sold your positions, plan to, or are you hodling?
3. Is the "death cross" really relevant for crypto?
4. Anything else you want to add, wisdom, etc?
Thanks for reading... until next time, cheers!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
$BTC #Bitcoin Death Cross CountdownThis indicator show's the estimate of the Death Cross that could occur on or around the 19th June. What we want and need $BTC #Bitcoin price to rally and go above the $46k price level or even better the $54K and soon. Keep and eye on this chart as we are not far off the estimated date of the #DeathCross. The bottom has red circles which has already been showing which indicates a warning the Death Cross is near. This indicator shows both the Golden Cross & Death Cross with alerts to your phone or email.
I have provided a link to the Death Cross and golden Cross to view below:
Bitcoin death crossWith the talk of a death cross coming for $BTC let's look back at what has happened on previous occasions (how long until golden cross & the largest % drop post death cross):
• April 2014; 94 days until golden cross; -25.09% 2 days after cross
• September 2014; 314 days until golden cross; -67.91% 132 days after cross
• September 2015; 43 days until golden cross; -3.5% 7 days after cross
• March 2018; 388 days until golden cross; -54.35% 259 days after cross
• October 2019; 115 days until golden cross; -30.56% 53 days after cross
• March 2020; 57 days until golden cross; -13.48% 2 days after cross
Ultimately the Golden and Death crosses are a nice talking point for financial outlets to talk about, but the major move likely would have taken place before the cross, and the cross itself has no bearing on whether we'll settle into a bear market.
Last BTC Death Cross NotesWhen was the last time BTCUSD experienced a death cross? - March 2020
What happened after in terms of price movement?
Initial sell off (-16%) in the days immediately following the death cross (algos? twitter?), then BTC rocketed 25% over the same span of days, before more than 2xing over the next 4.5 months...
What would the price be if we followed the same percentage moves?
Initial sell off: Approx Current BTC Price $40,000 - ($40,000 * 0.16) = $33,600
25% rebound: $33,600 * 1.25 = $42,000
Approx 110% move: $42,000 * 2.1 = $88,200
BTC to $88K by November???
BTC/USDT DEATH CROSS (I am not doing anything)BINANCE:BTCUSDT TF 1D
Sometimes Lazy is good, We rode that 31K you saw our previous Chart.
Yet to admit I really acted like a whale getting greedy to the Death cross momentum and
get the 20WEEK MA be Gold Cross for everyone not just for me and for you as well.
Open your eyes it is being fished we are fished by whales. Why not let the whales vs whales...
Let sit at the bottom of the ocean floor and buy the whale that will crash. Let's not fight it.
REMEMBER WE CAME FROM THIS TO HERE WHERE WE AT SITTING WHERE THIS DEATH CROSS; it's Inevitable!
15/6/2021
> G7 Leaders Ask Russia to Urgently Identify Those Who Abuse Cryptocurrency in Ransomware Attacks.
> Experts: Regulatory Uncertainty and Slow Embrace Hampering Crypto Growth in Kenya. Here
> Crypto Not a ‘Viable Investment,’ Goldman Sachs.
> Johannesburg Stock Exchange Rejects Bitcoin ETF Application, Cites Lack of Regulatory Framework.
> MicroStrategy could hold more than $4B in Bitcoin after latest private offering and crypto purchase.
> Bitcoin price hits $40K as Paul Tudor Jones slams Fed inflation claims.
> Lack of crypto regulations alarming, says Italy's stock market regulator.
> Bitcoin sell pressure may hit zero in July thanks to Grayscale’s giant 16K BTC unlocking.
> China debuts blockchain-based digital yuan salary payments in Xiong’an.
> Korean banks will need to classify crypto exchange clients as ‘high risk’.
> Paul Tudor Jones on the Fed, Inflation and Why He Recommends 5% in Bitcoin.
> Bitcoin Remittances to El Salvador Surge 300% Ahead of BTC Becoming Legal Tender.
> New Zealand already had a bank recognize to accept El Salvadors National Currency (btc) as an act of now waging war against them.
> Elon musk is operated by his own company. He is what he is and he does what his company needs, getting the news out and riding the obvious and claim he did it, and he caused that major movement at the market. (we know he did not)
> French Football Federation launches official player NFTs with Sorare.
Psych : they will use FUD to really push that price down until they fill in the depression stage where whales will be profitable on that death cross.
It is programmed to happen and it must, to call it a healthy market. Tendency small to mid hands like you and me are making ways to snipe that cross and call for a short. Sometimes doing nothing is the best thing to do. start selling your spot 50% incase you got left out at the top use your investment and 50% you sold to buy that efing DIP... in anycase still that is just how I always do it and it is aggressive and safe at the same time. Going High risk to security stage putting stop loss even at spot. Auto selling this coins using tools that I use like coin panel.
Bitcoin Death Cross (Should we be concerned?)The death cross is when the 50 day moving average crossed DOWN through the 200 day moving average. In this chart you can see this has happened 6 times. Here were the results after each death cross.
Date Percentage loss Days
4/9/14 18% 1
9/4/14 62% 132
9/14/15 2% 7
3/31/18 54% 260
10/26/19 48% 139
4/12/20 12% 4
3 out of the six time the lowest Bitcoin got from the death cross was less than 20% and with in the first week then it recovered.
The other 3 times it lost over 40% from the death cross and it took over 130 days to reach the low.
Moral of the story is if we do hit anther death cross we have a 50/50 chance of it not being a big deal. But if we do end up in a bear trend it might be a good time to think about HODLing for another year.
What does everyone else think?
~@Controllinghand
@HODLhands
BTC Death Cross NearingThough I hate to say it, BTC seems to be nearing a Death Cross (when the 50MA crosses below the 200MA) on the daily chart. This is one of those super classic moving average (MA) strategies that finds it way in most intro to technical analysis books and honestly a lot of people trade it. I would expect volume to start rolling in as these two MAs keep inching towards each other. Bulls are desperate to prevent further blood loss and the bears are eager for follow through.
Also, note the potential bear flag formation that pushed price action below what was a major Support Level and the 200MA. A rejection here will confirm that support has now become resistance. There appears to be some general confluence in favor of the Bears . If the Bulls really want to turn this ship around then they will need to regain $40k at the least.
What are your thoughts? Where do you see BTC going?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
TELUSDT 📞 on the 4 Hourly UPDATE*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: DYOR - This idea IMO for personal use only*
=========================================================
An update from my last chart dated 26th May:
Have updated chart with:
🔸fibonacci confluence zones,
🔸added 21 EMA, *note we had a few close under this EMA on the daily
🔸added Golden and Death cross indicators
🔸added the ADX / DI indicators.
My strategy is still to buy and hold. I also have some laddered buy orders in place for a lower anticipated dip approx 3rd week June (around 14th - 20), which is indicated with X at $0.02 and $0.015.
Nothing but excellent news all round from TEL this week, in reflection:
TEL V2.3 was launched ✅
Users in Canada can now send digital remittances to 24 mobile currency platforms in 16 countries ✅
Am still extremely bullish on TEL!! Why?
🔹 Already in the top 10 best performing cryptos for 2021 after the crash
🔹 Anticipating further amazing results in the lead-up to the launch of V3
🔹 Increased exposure with recent listings on other exchanges
🔹 Increased publicity and leading the way now the Nebraska Legislature to create crypto & digital asset bank framework is now signed into law.
🔹 Solid roadmap for the rest of this year 2021
At the time of charting this, TEL ranks at #57 on coinmarketcap which is down 4 since my last update.
As always, watch for volume. Do your own research. This is not Financial Advice. Always be watching BTC.
Good chat.🤖
History -
My previous chart 26 May:
My previous chart 25 May:
My previous chart 5 May:
My previous chart 14 April:
BTC - Weekly Elliot Wave FormingLooking at the Weekly charts, you can see a textbook Elliot Wave beginning to form.
Wave 1 was the bull market before COVID.
Wave 2 was the COVID crash.
Wave 3 was the bull market that took us towards 65k.
Wave 4 is what we're experiencing now.
My guess (and hope) is that somewhere between $20-30k will be the bottom of our 4th wave. With the impending Death Cross coming in about a week, I find it hard to believe that we won't see a dip to at least $28k.
The 5th wave is very hard to predict, but I'm hoping to see a push towards $100-150k before Summer of 2022.
Be safe.