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Deathcross

Long Term BTC trend analysis Hello everyone, my name is CombJelliesAreCool, lets get to brass tacks. Lets start off with the red and green curves i have surrounding the entirety of the price action for BTC, i started off with the first high and low back in Oct 2010 and connected the green curve with every subsequent rally high and connected my red curve with every subsequent rally low. Doing this, its clear to see that touching either of these curves is a trustworthy indicator for the end or beginning of a sustained uptrend. Due to the inherent volatility of the bitcoin market, its entirely possible for a downtrend to occur inside of an uptrend of vice versa. However, if your uptrend doesn't touch the green curve or the downtrend doesn't touch the red curve then the trend has not completed. This indicator has played out without fail for almost 10 years now and can be seen in action with the rallies of 2011 and 2013 and the down trends of 2014 through early 2015 and i posit for the downtrend of 2018 through the rest of 2019. On this indicator i took my inspiration from @MagicPoopCannon but I came to a different conclusion on the shape of the curves, he posits that as time goes on the price of bitcoin will eventually stabilize, although I agree with him that price action will eventually stabilize as the market gets saturated, I highly doubt stability is coming anywhere in the near future with the increasing adoption and exponential amounts more money that's coming into the market so my bands increase in width as time goes on as opposed to decreases. Lets move on to the SMA cross, it looks like there's an impending deathcross on the horizon coming to confirm this downtrend we've been in for two months, with this harsh of a downtrend in the past week I assume its coming sooner than later, especially looking at the shape of the 50 SMA up close. Now for the NVT analysis, I noticed that the shape of the nvt during late 2012 through mid way 2014 has a lot of confluence with the NVT of mid 2017 through now. I first noticed that a new end of the downtrend wasnt confirmed until the NVT for a green oversold signal, one that we didnt have, even during out catastrophic drop in Nov 2018. If you look at the red lines you can see that the shapes of the NVT are basically symmetrical. You see a gradual rise into a steep rise followed by a monster of a dropoff, boom, green oversold signal, a gradual rise and plateau followed by yet another steep rise and another, albeit ever so slightly less of a dropoff than the previous, this takes us into the mid 70s of the NVT, we plateua, chop for a couple months than a decent uptrend and a very gradual drop off of the third red peak of the NVT, and finally our second green on the NVT since out first red peak and a touch of the red curve to signify the end of the downtrend. A majority of this trend is confirmed including the steepness of the angles and the timing of the plateaus in the trend. I would assume this would indeed be the case if we had good NVT data for our very first bull and bear cycle. If this fractal plays proportionally our eventual low will likely be the high 2000s or low 3000s and our rally high in 2023 will be around 250000 - 300000 dollars per BTC. Shes going down boys. Thank you for reading, Im open to ideas and criticisms.
BNC:BLX
by CombJelliesAreCool
4
4h BTCBack from an intensive week away due to work issues. The snap shot we were left of 50 EMA ( Yellow) getting a 4H death cross with the 200 EMA (Blue) is still intact and actually consolidating the bearish picture, though there was a small attempt to cross back. Usually the price tend to attract back to the EMA's when they are father-away just to drop back again. My position is still bearish, thought there is the 4H-daily and now the weekly triangle in the play, which is nested in the bear channel started in the topping of June. The bottom area of the triangle can give us a bounce up with the current slow grinding bearish aspect. The 4H TD had a 9 BUY, which was ignored and now is in a RED 3 count. Keep open the eyes and safe trading folks.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by taryjaya
The 1 day bullpennant has once again become the dominant patternWe can see now after a very weak "breakout" from the 4hr chart falling wedge that it is the 1 day chart bull pennant that is still very much the dominant chart pattern at the moment. The good news about that is the breakout target should be much much higher than the falling wedge's target would have been. The bad news is the pennant is a descending triangle which has a slight chance of being a reversal pattern. We can also see the 4hr 50 and 200mas are at risk of deathcrossing in the near future if we don't see a bullish breakout from the pennant in the next few days. This is a 1 day chart but I placed the trajectory of those 2 4hr MAs on here with a dotted orange and dotted blue line so you could still see it on the 1 day chart. My bias is still leaning bullish here but because of the potential impending deathcross I'm gonna leave this idea neutral. Hopefully the pennant will break up before wednesday and we won't have t worry about a deathcross on the 4hr.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
ETH | The death cross you missed...ETH price action has been looking bleak since earlier this summer as prices are now hovering around 180 with little sight of hope. As we see other alt coins getting stale, an oldie, but scary long time indicator has popped up on the ETH daily chart. Last week we saw a death cross occur at the 172 level. This is the first time this has happened since the last occurrence back on April 10, 2018. That occurrence saw ETH drop from 400 to 82 representing a roughly 80% drop. If we were to see the same pattern happen again, expect ETH to drop to a price level of 35. Although this may sound very unreasonable with a low probability, just remember, this is crypto. So for now I would suggest staying out or initiate a short if you have the proper steel balls.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by jiamijiang
2
$126K Bitcoin by January 1st, 2022The last time bitcoin put out a golden cross on the monthly MACD (January 1st, 2016), there was a 14,819% return before the death cross (on June 1st, 2018). Bitcoin started at $430.89 and ended its run at $6385.71 with highs and lows between the two. The same return at our current golden cross would put us at $126,667.92 on January 1st, 2022. This is if history were to completely repeat itself and as we all know, it doesn't work like that. Let me know what your price predictions for January 1st, 2022 are below! Would love to hear if you are #short or #long and the reason for your position.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CptSafety
1
USDJPY Weekly TF DEATH CROSS Confirmed! JPY Appreciation LikelyWhat is a Death Cross? The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock/Currency's short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The death cross indicator has proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. Investors who got out of the stock market at the start of these bear markets avoided large losses that were as high as 90% in the 1930s. Because a death cross is a long-term indicator, as opposed to many short-term chart patterns such as the doji, it carries more weight for investors concerned about locking in gains before a new bear market gets underway. An increase in volume typically accompanies the appearance of the death cross. Source: www.investopedia.com Now as the definition of this rare EMA crossover has been defined as above, we can technically expect JPY appreciation in the near future, which might be sustained due to many fundamental factors. If this holds right, we could not only see USDJPY Plummet over the coming years but also many JPY related currencies particularly the EURJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY. The above snapshot is from USDJPY weekly TF which shows the occurrence of death cross signal, followed by continued decline of the USDJPY and recovery (golden cross). During the whole turmoil and the very start of the financial crisis back then, the death cross gave a strong signal of impending recession! The golden cross in 2013 was the sign of period of recovery in the markets as risk appetite returned and GOLD fell from multi year tops. A week ago the death cross has happened again. In the main chart as it could be seen, the EMA used are 50 and 200. A crossover has already been confirmed at this point, but ask yourself this; could this be a beginning of a long term downtrend? The answer to this question lies in the fundamental factors that are currently dictating the markets. The major factor here which is held accountable is the TRADE WAR!. For past one year this battle between the world's two largest economy has been going on with no end in sight, Furthermore things just seems to get worse as TRUMP is hell bent on reducing china imports into the U.S. The trade war has lead to the following things which has completely reshaped the financial markets: 1) U.S yield curve inversion has sparked the fear of recession forcing many to retreat to safehavens 2) Global slowdown resulting from the trade war, has forced many central banks to start an easing cycle of cutting interests rates 3) TRUMP is forcing The FED to cut interest rates aggressively in order to make USD weak and boost the economy FED has now completely changed their course to easing with predictions coming for a 120BP cuts by the of 2020. Should the FED cut rates to support the economy from a possible recession we could see the USDJPY plummet whereas should they keep defying TRUMP and hold the rates steady or cut less, we could see this pair being stubborn to drop. All in all its looking more likely that the FED would keep easing slowly which would see JPY appreciate. In other perspective, A global slowdown would hit NZD, AUD & EUR to such an extent that the JPY would gain stronger ground against all these three pairs compared to any other currency. This is just my outlook on the JPY futures based on current and past fundamentals and as of now all things are pointing towards JPY appreciation. A trade entry could only be made based on technical picture in correlation with the fundamental one. Currently the price is held within a long term triangle, once breached we could make an entry and aim for 101.00. Shall there be any updates i will provide them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
bearflag poentially breaking down...target 8.6k?breakdown no confirmed just yet but probability is definitely favoring it now as we can see price acion now firmly under the 4hr deathcross. If price action cant climb back above that deathcross then both the bearflag breakdown and he death cross will be sustained/confirmed. this is the perfect spot if the breakdown is confirmed for price action finally reach that 8.5k gap on cme futures chart bit of course the smart trader will make sure to buy back in a few pips before that and if we continue to fall and hit that target to also buy the dip
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
1
Bulls trying their best 2 prevent the approaching 4hr deathcrossThe bull flag definitely seems like it wants to trigger a bullish breakout here. Of course being still in the last 10 minutes of the 1 day candle anything can happen and we must remain patient and balanced until we get a better idea upon the daily candle close...we also need to keep a close eye on the top trendline of the broadening wedge's resistance(in red), and the 11113.83 horizontal trendline(in white)...I expected at least a wick above the white horizontal if we breakout but the horizontal may potentially maintain its resistance for candle close...if not the next resistance will be the 11271 horizontal (red) above that, and just above that 11585 descending green trendline which is currently the biggest resistance to overcome...it's the one thats maintained resistance this whole correction. . .still waiting to see where the current candle closes the daily at but looks good for a breakout currently..anything could change in the last 10 minutes though. Even if we do breakout though it may not be enough to prevent the 4hr deathcross from happening...however if we dont immediately nosedive after the cross then the cross will likely be a fakeout and shortlived. So very important here to see how price action reactts to any kind of deathcross...as long as price stays above both the 200(in blue) and the 50ma(in orange) i should result in a fakoeut. If not it will resume dumping.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
BTC is going down baby! The Shit is about to hit the fan. Heya All, More and more I look at the price action I feel that these FIB circles of death and capitulation guys might be up to something. They might have been right all along... however, until proven otherwise on regular bases I don't really believe all these crab circles, fractals. BTC LTC and BTC GOLD leading indication BS. This being said, support and resistance remain to be my god and MAs are my apostils. Halliluiah! Praise the mighty 50 and 200 EMAs on 4 hours! Can I get Aaamen?! Moving on.... Here are interesting observations and high probability scenario moving forward: 1. A death cross is upon us and most likely it will come with a size of destruction which can be measured reasonably well. Usual death cross brings about 15-25% drop from our nearest top, which means that: - Scenario A: about 15% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the first blue resistance box, -Likelihood 85% - Scenario B: about 20% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the second blue resistance box, - Likelihood 65% - Scenario C: about 25% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the third blue resistance box, - Likelihood 35% So this provides a nice trade setup. Timewise----- I think that short setup might take up to 4 days to fully realize. if we breach the first box and we manage to open and close under it on 4 h it will hint near term continuation to the next box, if we open and close under it then the target becomes the third box in the line. Open and close on 4H under the third box will likely be a first leading indication to a possible general trend reversal, this will be a major change of BTC's behaviour (there is more to that but, I prefer not to speculate until a precedent). 2. We are under major moving averages on 4H , next big support which most likely will not give much of the resistance is brown 377 EMA. Daily 100 EMA is standing at 9777 and Daily 200 EMA is at 8100 (this level is irrelevant for now). Weekly 21 is at 8850 levels so this might present a potential bounce area in between the second and the third resistance boxes. 3. Declining volume profile for the last week indicates that the price is ready for a massive move and it will take incremental trades to generate large leaps. 4. There is a good possibility that we draw a massive wick to 10800 levels from here and avert the whole situation but at this point, I think that chances of this taking place are slim. Stay safe people and have a profitable week-end. Cheers Archie
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by akublashvili
2
XRPUSD Impending Death Cross. What to expect:We can see here on h 1 day chart that the 1 day deathcross is imminent and will likely occur tomorrow or the day after at the latest. While at this point it does look like the initial cross will happen, My gut feeling based on fundamental developments and adoption in xrp, is that even if this initial cross does occur it will be short lived and proven a deathcross fakeout which will be reversed shortly there after back into a golden cross. Let's recall hat the beginning of the 2015 bull market for bitcoin began in a similar fashion where we got the 1st shortlived golden cross that then briefly went back into a deathcross before having it's real sustainable golden cross shortly later. I anticipate thee same kind of behavior this time around for xrp...however initially once this fake deathcross occurs price action could follow with it and we could see our current bearish descending triangle trigger a final capitulation breakdown and that triangle has a measured move down exactly to our super strong bottom support at 24.5 cents which is a good confluence point to skyrocket right back up at...however if the next breakdown that occurs is treating the current pattern more as a bearish pennant than a descending triangle then we could see a capitulation candle reach as low as 19-20 cents before the skyrocket back up. Lastly we could instead of a breakdown see an inverted bart pattern play out here in which case if it has a bullish enough impulse it's still possible we may avoid a deathcross altogether and instead see both moving averages bounce up off eachother. For something like that to occur at this point would require a green candle and bullish volume bar much larger than any we have seen for a long long time. All these things considered I think my wisest move here is going to be just wait for the break and if we dip down buy the dip at 28, 24.5, and again at 19-20 cens if we manage to make it that low. If worst case scenario price were to go under 16 cents at that point I may have to consider that the deathcross may not be a fakeout after all but that seems highly highly unlikely and low probability.
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Somebody poke NEO, is it still alive? Heya All, While BTC is taking a week-end rest I have the inclination to proceed and revisit some of my favourite shitcoins and NEO is definitely one of them. This coin and platform has all that is needed for a solid DAPPs coin and in many ways fundamentals of NEO stood head and shoulders above ETH, Stelar, Cosmos and other similar DAPP platforms yet it took more beating and more damage than any of these. Needless to say, NEO community internationally was and perhaps still is one of the strongest. Citi of Zion, despite somewhat corrupt structure, is still a much better governance system than any of the similar platforms offered. At this point, the question still begs to be asked, what happened with NEO? Apart from nearly 2-year long bear market what has resulted in a collapse of the Da Hong Fei's empire? - I am not a NEO Expert, but I will try to elaborate on some of the shortcomings of the projects and reasons why it was not able to gain traction even after announcing the NEO 3.0 version upgrade. Here they are: - Not being able to develop a strong report with the Chinese government ( with any other Gov for that matter). - Not being able to establish a simple yet elegant use case on GOV or major business level. (For example, collaborations with Alipay or Wechat would have catapulted NEO to a whole new level. Similarly, it would have been beneficial to deploy notarial, public, business and land registry services on NEO for any of the countries where they have a prominent presence). On a positive note, I think NEO still has a fighting chance and will rise again if the management team will ramp up international efforts, Will resume to be more proactive when engaging the international community and when supporting promising projects on the platforms. And yes, for now, NEO is bearly breathing and it is 200K short away from total collapse. Several factors that accompany NEO's current situation are the following: 1. Low liquidity - No one with the mother is trading this asset. There are small movements on Finex but all of it looks like a bunch of liquidations and some in-house market making to keep the price level afloat. 2. Price action looks like swiss cheese - There are so many gaps in the price action on lower timeframes that I suspect that no one trades this asset at their own will. 3. Possibility to short neo to kingdom come - It looks like the whole asset can be short to 8$ level and beyond with just 200 K account and a couple of smart traders. 4. 30 Days from the golden cross to the death cross - Currently neo is under the death cross. Lat death cross ended about a month ago and current one took a change of the price action quite recently. There is more mad news, the 50EMA-200 SMA death cross is about to take place soon, which again might send NEO to lower price targets. If I had a position in this Asset, I would close my shorts now, liquidate my holdings and would move my positions to BTC. Will NEO rise again? -Perhaps... Soon? -Nobody knows! Happy trading and stay safe! Archie
BITFINEX:NEOUSDShort
by akublashvili