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Deathcross

USDJPY Weekly TF DEATH CROSS Confirmed! JPY Appreciation LikelyWhat is a Death Cross? The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock/Currency's short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The death cross indicator has proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. Investors who got out of the stock market at the start of these bear markets avoided large losses that were as high as 90% in the 1930s. Because a death cross is a long-term indicator, as opposed to many short-term chart patterns such as the doji, it carries more weight for investors concerned about locking in gains before a new bear market gets underway. An increase in volume typically accompanies the appearance of the death cross. Source: www.investopedia.com Now as the definition of this rare EMA crossover has been defined as above, we can technically expect JPY appreciation in the near future, which might be sustained due to many fundamental factors. If this holds right, we could not only see USDJPY Plummet over the coming years but also many JPY related currencies particularly the EURJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY. The above snapshot is from USDJPY weekly TF which shows the occurrence of death cross signal, followed by continued decline of the USDJPY and recovery (golden cross). During the whole turmoil and the very start of the financial crisis back then, the death cross gave a strong signal of impending recession! The golden cross in 2013 was the sign of period of recovery in the markets as risk appetite returned and GOLD fell from multi year tops. A week ago the death cross has happened again. In the main chart as it could be seen, the EMA used are 50 and 200. A crossover has already been confirmed at this point, but ask yourself this; could this be a beginning of a long term downtrend? The answer to this question lies in the fundamental factors that are currently dictating the markets. The major factor here which is held accountable is the TRADE WAR!. For past one year this battle between the world's two largest economy has been going on with no end in sight, Furthermore things just seems to get worse as TRUMP is hell bent on reducing china imports into the U.S. The trade war has lead to the following things which has completely reshaped the financial markets: 1) U.S yield curve inversion has sparked the fear of recession forcing many to retreat to safehavens 2) Global slowdown resulting from the trade war, has forced many central banks to start an easing cycle of cutting interests rates 3) TRUMP is forcing The FED to cut interest rates aggressively in order to make USD weak and boost the economy FED has now completely changed their course to easing with predictions coming for a 120BP cuts by the of 2020. Should the FED cut rates to support the economy from a possible recession we could see the USDJPY plummet whereas should they keep defying TRUMP and hold the rates steady or cut less, we could see this pair being stubborn to drop. All in all its looking more likely that the FED would keep easing slowly which would see JPY appreciate. In other perspective, A global slowdown would hit NZD, AUD & EUR to such an extent that the JPY would gain stronger ground against all these three pairs compared to any other currency. This is just my outlook on the JPY futures based on current and past fundamentals and as of now all things are pointing towards JPY appreciation. A trade entry could only be made based on technical picture in correlation with the fundamental one. Currently the price is held within a long term triangle, once breached we could make an entry and aim for 101.00. Shall there be any updates i will provide them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
bearflag poentially breaking down...target 8.6k?breakdown no confirmed just yet but probability is definitely favoring it now as we can see price acion now firmly under the 4hr deathcross. If price action cant climb back above that deathcross then both the bearflag breakdown and he death cross will be sustained/confirmed. this is the perfect spot if the breakdown is confirmed for price action finally reach that 8.5k gap on cme futures chart bit of course the smart trader will make sure to buy back in a few pips before that and if we continue to fall and hit that target to also buy the dip
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
1
Bulls trying their best 2 prevent the approaching 4hr deathcrossThe bull flag definitely seems like it wants to trigger a bullish breakout here. Of course being still in the last 10 minutes of the 1 day candle anything can happen and we must remain patient and balanced until we get a better idea upon the daily candle close...we also need to keep a close eye on the top trendline of the broadening wedge's resistance(in red), and the 11113.83 horizontal trendline(in white)...I expected at least a wick above the white horizontal if we breakout but the horizontal may potentially maintain its resistance for candle close...if not the next resistance will be the 11271 horizontal (red) above that, and just above that 11585 descending green trendline which is currently the biggest resistance to overcome...it's the one thats maintained resistance this whole correction. . .still waiting to see where the current candle closes the daily at but looks good for a breakout currently..anything could change in the last 10 minutes though. Even if we do breakout though it may not be enough to prevent the 4hr deathcross from happening...however if we dont immediately nosedive after the cross then the cross will likely be a fakeout and shortlived. So very important here to see how price action reactts to any kind of deathcross...as long as price stays above both the 200(in blue) and the 50ma(in orange) i should result in a fakoeut. If not it will resume dumping.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
BTC is going down baby! The Shit is about to hit the fan. Heya All, More and more I look at the price action I feel that these FIB circles of death and capitulation guys might be up to something. They might have been right all along... however, until proven otherwise on regular bases I don't really believe all these crab circles, fractals. BTC LTC and BTC GOLD leading indication BS. This being said, support and resistance remain to be my god and MAs are my apostils. Halliluiah! Praise the mighty 50 and 200 EMAs on 4 hours! Can I get Aaamen?! Moving on.... Here are interesting observations and high probability scenario moving forward: 1. A death cross is upon us and most likely it will come with a size of destruction which can be measured reasonably well. Usual death cross brings about 15-25% drop from our nearest top, which means that: - Scenario A: about 15% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the first blue resistance box, -Likelihood 85% - Scenario B: about 20% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the second blue resistance box, - Likelihood 65% - Scenario C: about 25% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the third blue resistance box, - Likelihood 35% So this provides a nice trade setup. Timewise----- I think that short setup might take up to 4 days to fully realize. if we breach the first box and we manage to open and close under it on 4 h it will hint near term continuation to the next box, if we open and close under it then the target becomes the third box in the line. Open and close on 4H under the third box will likely be a first leading indication to a possible general trend reversal, this will be a major change of BTC's behaviour (there is more to that but, I prefer not to speculate until a precedent). 2. We are under major moving averages on 4H , next big support which most likely will not give much of the resistance is brown 377 EMA. Daily 100 EMA is standing at 9777 and Daily 200 EMA is at 8100 (this level is irrelevant for now). Weekly 21 is at 8850 levels so this might present a potential bounce area in between the second and the third resistance boxes. 3. Declining volume profile for the last week indicates that the price is ready for a massive move and it will take incremental trades to generate large leaps. 4. There is a good possibility that we draw a massive wick to 10800 levels from here and avert the whole situation but at this point, I think that chances of this taking place are slim. Stay safe people and have a profitable week-end. Cheers Archie
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by akublashvili
2
XRPUSD Impending Death Cross. What to expect:We can see here on h 1 day chart that the 1 day deathcross is imminent and will likely occur tomorrow or the day after at the latest. While at this point it does look like the initial cross will happen, My gut feeling based on fundamental developments and adoption in xrp, is that even if this initial cross does occur it will be short lived and proven a deathcross fakeout which will be reversed shortly there after back into a golden cross. Let's recall hat the beginning of the 2015 bull market for bitcoin began in a similar fashion where we got the 1st shortlived golden cross that then briefly went back into a deathcross before having it's real sustainable golden cross shortly later. I anticipate thee same kind of behavior this time around for xrp...however initially once this fake deathcross occurs price action could follow with it and we could see our current bearish descending triangle trigger a final capitulation breakdown and that triangle has a measured move down exactly to our super strong bottom support at 24.5 cents which is a good confluence point to skyrocket right back up at...however if the next breakdown that occurs is treating the current pattern more as a bearish pennant than a descending triangle then we could see a capitulation candle reach as low as 19-20 cents before the skyrocket back up. Lastly we could instead of a breakdown see an inverted bart pattern play out here in which case if it has a bullish enough impulse it's still possible we may avoid a deathcross altogether and instead see both moving averages bounce up off eachother. For something like that to occur at this point would require a green candle and bullish volume bar much larger than any we have seen for a long long time. All these things considered I think my wisest move here is going to be just wait for the break and if we dip down buy the dip at 28, 24.5, and again at 19-20 cens if we manage to make it that low. If worst case scenario price were to go under 16 cents at that point I may have to consider that the deathcross may not be a fakeout after all but that seems highly highly unlikely and low probability.
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Somebody poke NEO, is it still alive? Heya All, While BTC is taking a week-end rest I have the inclination to proceed and revisit some of my favourite shitcoins and NEO is definitely one of them. This coin and platform has all that is needed for a solid DAPPs coin and in many ways fundamentals of NEO stood head and shoulders above ETH, Stelar, Cosmos and other similar DAPP platforms yet it took more beating and more damage than any of these. Needless to say, NEO community internationally was and perhaps still is one of the strongest. Citi of Zion, despite somewhat corrupt structure, is still a much better governance system than any of the similar platforms offered. At this point, the question still begs to be asked, what happened with NEO? Apart from nearly 2-year long bear market what has resulted in a collapse of the Da Hong Fei's empire? - I am not a NEO Expert, but I will try to elaborate on some of the shortcomings of the projects and reasons why it was not able to gain traction even after announcing the NEO 3.0 version upgrade. Here they are: - Not being able to develop a strong report with the Chinese government ( with any other Gov for that matter). - Not being able to establish a simple yet elegant use case on GOV or major business level. (For example, collaborations with Alipay or Wechat would have catapulted NEO to a whole new level. Similarly, it would have been beneficial to deploy notarial, public, business and land registry services on NEO for any of the countries where they have a prominent presence). On a positive note, I think NEO still has a fighting chance and will rise again if the management team will ramp up international efforts, Will resume to be more proactive when engaging the international community and when supporting promising projects on the platforms. And yes, for now, NEO is bearly breathing and it is 200K short away from total collapse. Several factors that accompany NEO's current situation are the following: 1. Low liquidity - No one with the mother is trading this asset. There are small movements on Finex but all of it looks like a bunch of liquidations and some in-house market making to keep the price level afloat. 2. Price action looks like swiss cheese - There are so many gaps in the price action on lower timeframes that I suspect that no one trades this asset at their own will. 3. Possibility to short neo to kingdom come - It looks like the whole asset can be short to 8$ level and beyond with just 200 K account and a couple of smart traders. 4. 30 Days from the golden cross to the death cross - Currently neo is under the death cross. Lat death cross ended about a month ago and current one took a change of the price action quite recently. There is more mad news, the 50EMA-200 SMA death cross is about to take place soon, which again might send NEO to lower price targets. If I had a position in this Asset, I would close my shorts now, liquidate my holdings and would move my positions to BTC. Will NEO rise again? -Perhaps... Soon? -Nobody knows! Happy trading and stay safe! Archie
BITFINEX:NEOUSDShort
by akublashvili
Despite buying pressure near future of ETH doesn't look too goodHeya all, If you have not done so it is a great time to exit your USDETH shorts until further notice. It looks like the worst of the storm is over, and there is obvious buying pressure in play but I will not be too quick to jump on that train just yet. Overall, my sentiment is that ETH will bounce to 220 level and perhaps beyond too, so my position currently is "Cautiously Bullish" until the double death cross situation is resolved. Needless to say, please keep your downside protected and keep a tight stop loss when longing this asset. keep in mind the following factors: 1. We are still diverging between 4H 50 and 200 SMA which opens up this asset to further potential downside, selloff and shitfuckery. The current level of price is by no means the bottom and there are events that can drag this price further below to 200 and 190 price levels. 2. We are still in the 50 x377 SMA death cross-zone, which usually has less gravity and influence over the price action, yet in this kind of bullish scenarios, a divergence between 50 and 377 SMA can massively delay the resolution of trend and price action. 3. BTC as a concurrent asset provides very interesting price action for investors while maintaining the bullish momentum on all timeframes above 12hour, which will incentivise ETH investors to exit their positions now and bump up the liquidity for BTC, which will generate additional sell pressure on ETH in both cases, when BTC price goes up and even when BTC price goes down. 4. RSI and Srock are looking awful. perhaps this will change during the next week. Don't front-run the resolution of ETH price action. So in summary, 1. Be very very very cautious when buying this asset before the resolution of 50x200 and 50x377 SMA death crosses. 2. The bottom, might not be reached yet and there is a solid possibility to go down to 190 and 200 levels fairly soon. 3. To be safe, wait until 4 h price action moved above 50 SMA and consider buying after that. Hope this helps Cheers Archie
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by akublashvili
4
xrpusd deathcross looming? I anticipate a fakeoutimpending deathcross on xrp. while also in a 1 day bear pennant that has a target of 20 cents...i anticipate this deathcross will be a fakeout and we may see a inverted bart here instead of a bear pennant....however there's also a chance it could break down and the 50ma could briefly cross under the 200ma but if so in that case it would just be capitulation and price would rocket back up bringing a golden cross with it to signal a deathcross fakeout if capitulation happens i don't see it dropping the whole target of the bearflag I have a feeling the 28.5 or the 24.5 horizontal trendline would probably catch it before then...still worth being prepared to buy any kind of dip like that though should it occur.:
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Demo of how my FUSIONGAPS indicator might be used.Link to my indicator: According to this chart, it appears BTC still have some downside to go, before a turnaround. Look out for a significant positive peak (turn-around) of the 50/15 blue oscillator (blue color fill) as a possible indication of a good position to enter. Possible indication of good price points to exit seems to be where the 50/15 oscillator (fuchsia color fill) have peaked in the negative region. Not a financial/trading/investment advice. Exercise your own judgement and take responsibility for your own trades. ;) And if you like this set of indicators, and it has benefited you in some ways, please consider tipping a little to my HRT fund. =D cybernetwork @ EOS 37DzRVwodp5UZBYjCKvVoZ5bDdDqhr7798 @ BTC MPr8Zhmpsx2uh3F5R4WD98MRJJpwuLBhA3 @ LTC 1Je6c1vvSCW7V2vA6RYDt6CEvqGYgT44F4 @ BCH AS259bXGthuj4VZ1QPzD39W3ut4fQV5giC @ NEO rDonew8fRDkZFv7dZYe5w3L1vJSE51zFAx @ Ripple XRP 0xc0161d27201914FC0bAe5e350a193c8658fc4742 @ ETH GAX6UDAJ52OGZW4FVVG3WLGIOJLGG2C7CTO5ZDUK2P6M6QMYBJMSJTDL @ Stellar XLM xrb_16s8cj8eoangfa96shsnkir3wctdzy76ajui4zexek6xmqssweu85rdjxrt4 @ Nano ~JuniAiko (=^~^=)v~
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
FUSIONGAPS DEMO2: BTCUSD winding up for another massive pump?Another chart analysing DEMO using my FUSIONGAPS oscillator showing a possible mid-term trend of BTC, by comparing on historical oscillator trends/patterns. Link to my FUSIONGAPS indicator: An earlier chart showing how to use FUSIONGAPS to pick possible good time/price for entry/exit. Not a financial/trading/investment advice. Exercise your own judgement and take responsibility for your own trades. ;) And if you like this set of indicators, and it has benefited you in some ways, please consider tipping a little to my HRT fund. =D cybernetwork @ EOS 37DzRVwodp5UZBYjCKvVoZ5bDdDqhr7798 @ BTC MPr8Zhmpsx2uh3F5R4WD98MRJJpwuLBhA3 @ LTC 1Je6c1vvSCW7V2vA6RYDt6CEvqGYgT44F4 @ BCH AS259bXGthuj4VZ1QPzD39W3ut4fQV5giC @ NEO rDonew8fRDkZFv7dZYe5w3L1vJSE51zFAx @ Ripple XRP 0xc0161d27201914FC0bAe5e350a193c8658fc4742 @ ETH GAX6UDAJ52OGZW4FVVG3WLGIOJLGG2C7CTO5ZDUK2P6M6QMYBJMSJTDL @ Stellar XLM xrb_16s8cj8eoangfa96shsnkir3wctdzy76ajui4zexek6xmqssweu85rdjxrt4 @ Nano ~JuniAiko (=^~^=)v~
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cybernetwork
3
4hr ema deathcross now official. Will it sustain?Price action appears to now be painting a downward slanted h&s pattern and the 50 and 200emas on the 4hr chart have now official deathcrossed. Wee are also seeing a green candle coinciding with the deathcross which happens often as a last ditch effort to reverse the deathcross back into a goldencross thus achieving a deathcross fakeout...in order to achieve one of those price action will likely have to climb back above both the 50 and 200 ema and flip them to solidified support. My guess is it will at the very least retest them but odds are favor them maintaining resistance for now. if it does retest and find resistance my guess is that will complete the peak of the right shoulder of this red h&s pattern which if triggered could take us potentially back under 9k if maybe only for a brief bit. For the bulls to achieve a deathcross fakeou they will likely have to rise above the 50 & 200 and flip them to solidified support within the next three 4hrcandles. If not and the confirm solidified resistance odds are good the ema deathcross will be sustained. probability currently favors the bears but I remain neutral until the deathcross confirms it will be sustained.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
4hr chart 50 & 200 EMAs currently at a stalemate. Neutral until a confirmed break here however my assumption is we will see a inv h&s fakeout breakout taking us up to 11.1-11.2k and then dumping not long after to instigate the exponential 4hr death cross eventually bringing us down to the gap at 8.5k potentially. Just a thought...it could also very easily hit the full target of the inverse hea dand shoulders pattern as well or even never making back above the neckline. So for now I remain neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 352)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods Consensio: Long term is bullish. Short and medium term starting to turn bearish. If 50 and 200 EMA’s get death cross on 4h then medium term trend will be bearish for me. Patterns: Pulling up and into death cross on 4h? If so would that be considered a pattern? Horizontals: R: $10,800 | S: $10,500 Parabolic SAR: If looking for SAR based on Welles Wilder’s original calculations then use “Lucid SAR” on Trading View. Weekly bullish SAR recently brokedown which indicates medium term bear trend. Futures Curve: Contango, but spread is narrowing on this selloff which is bullish Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.01%. Nothing out of balance here. BTCUSDSHORTS: Shorts are at new all time low TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a green 9 on this last move Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly and daily are bullish. Look at how the daily cloud (traditional settings) acted as support. 4h is bearish. Relative Strength Index: Appears to be resisting 50 on daily. Average Directional Index: Daily has fallen below 20 which is similar to the RSI resisting 50. Weekly is just showing the first signs of reversing. Price Action: 24h: +8.51% | 2w: -3.76% | 1m: +16.67% Summary: My last update was on July 7th and that is when I predicted “four figure Bitcoin within 48 hours”. Furthermore my price target for the expected selloff was $8,975 by July 10th. Both of those predictions were wrong. I roughly got the price targets right, but the time targets were about 1 week premature. Profitable trading revolves around projecting the price and the time. If you get one of those wrong then you are wrong, simple as that. This has been a great example. I shorted above $11,000 with a $9,000 price target and I lost money eventhough the price went to $9,000 within weeks of entering my position. I had a stop set at $11,876 and that was triggered before the selloff that followed. This is a great example of why trading revolves around price and time. Get one wrong and you will lose money. About 5 days after my call the price of bitcoin reached my target of $9,000. I had a pretty good idea of where the price was going in the future but I still lost money because I thought it would happen a little sooner than it did. With all of that being said I am prepared to take my second stab at the same call. As it stands I strongly expect four figure Bitcoin within the next 48 hours. From my perspective the market is very overbought while testing a major resistance level. This tells me that resistance will hold and that another leg down is to be expected. Therefore I am viewing this as a good opportunity to sell. Whether that be short or a profit take. It looks to me like $10,800 resistance is holding. If that is the case then we should get a death cross with the 50 and 200 EMAs on the 4h chart. If we do get a death cross then it would lead to a $7,500 target, at a minimum. As a result I am viewing this as a selling opportunity. Selling $10,500 - $10,700 with a stop at $10,900 makes a lot of sense to me. If we are able to breakthough $10,800 and spend some time above that price (> 1 day) then I will very much be changing my tune while looking to buy back what I sold around $11,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
7