SPX Death Cross Incoming - RECESSIONSPX Death Cross Incoming
On the left, you can see our current financial year.
On the right, 2008-09 recession.
If we consider that it's going to happen exactly similar, then the bottom will be in Sept, 2023.
Somewhere in May, 2023 we will be able to see a death cross on the SPX chart.
Let's see how it goes. Let me know what you all think.
Deathcross
Is Oil dying? I can't know if Oil is dying because I cannot see into the future. So what's on the chart?
1- There is a death cross on a daily timeframe which is always a significant event.
2 - The red stepwise line (the ATR) is telling us that there is heavy bear pressure in this market.
3 - Twice price was rejected in 31 days.
4 - Now there is a big struggle at a neckline.
5 - Price pushed outside the ascending wedge pattern, and has now fallen through the base. Not a good sign for bulls.
Price can go up or down at the leading edge. True trend-followers would have held short once price is below the 1D ATR line. Nobody knows how far that may go.
This is a dangerously volatile market on the daily, with no good short entry positions at this time.
A better entry short would have been at price point 100 - and still under the switch in the ATR.
But wow - look at the volatility one would have had to withstand over months. This is for strategists - not gamblers.
Stay safe. Don't burn cash.
BTC/USD - Will we see a Death Cross on the Bitcoin 1 week chart?Looking at the BTC/USD 1 week chart, we can see that the 50MA (Yellow Line) is now getting really close to the 200MA (Red Line). A crossover would signal a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the entire history and available data on this BTC/USD 1 week chart, we can see that the 50MA has never crossed under the 200MA on this 1w timeframe. Note that the 50MA did come very close to crossing under the 200MA around the week of the 30th Nov 2015 but in the end, it didn’t happen.
Other notes:
BTC is still in a Massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern.
BTC is also still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is still under all 3 of its major unique Ichimoku Kumo (Cloud) patterns.
BTC is still under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow, we can see that we are still in the Distribution Zone traveling slightly upwards but would say more like 'sideways within a range' on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the CMF (Green Line) is still under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) (Blue Line) which is a sign of continued weakness on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) but has starting to slope downwards. Note that both the MACD Line and Signal Line are still deep in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line. Note that the last green histogram had also decreased in size and this weekly one looks like it will also close smaller than the last indicating upwards momentum is weakening on this 1w timeframe.
Interesting times and potential opportunities ahead once this World Recession bottoms.
I hope this quick chart is helpful.
What does the death cross mean for investors?Hello Hello Traders ,
Please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments thank you very much.
Here we go ,
I want to talk with yours about Death Cross.
Defination,
Indicates a major trend reversal in a stock and index. It allows traders to see long and short-term trends and predict whether prices will enter a bearish phase.
How about death cross stages?
Step 1 ,
The buying of the investment vehicle should decrease and the rise should end. Afterwards, the number of sales people should gain the upper hand in the market and reduce the price.
Step 2 ,
It occurs as a result of the short-term average falling below the long-term average. The 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average and retraces to the Death Cross point. The fall of the 50-day average initiates a long-term decline in the market.
Step 3 ,
The downward price decline accelerates and we can assume that there is actually a death cross here.
When we look Our Chart ,
I examined a death cross of BTC-USDT formed 19 November.
Orange circle , As you can see on the chart on July 19 Nov, the 50 -day bitcoin average cuts the 200-day average from up . At this stage, we see that the BTC-USDT value has decreased with the high selling. The Death cross Intersection pattern increases the selling pressure. In this case, the share price may remain below the expected for a month to a year.
Conclusion,
With the Death Cross, it is predicted that the investment vehicle will be in a downward position in the long run. But if the investment tool breaks the decline in the short term and starts to rise again, the Death Cross may not be realized. It is necessary to look at the trading volume of the Death Cross. If there is a high transaction volume, the transaction is reliable. High trading volume indicates that investors are selling.
I really hope it will be useful for you.
Make big profits!
VET/USD - 1w chart Update and my opinionLet’s have another quick look at the VET/USD 1w chart.
Here is a closer look at this 1w chart.
VeChain is still in its Descending Wedge Pattern on this 1w chart. Note that VET failed to close a weekly candle above its upper descending trend line of its Descending Wedge Pattern at around $0.0286. $0.0286 was also the previous high from Mon 23rd Jul 2018.
VeChain is still below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1w chart.
VET is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1w chart. Note that the Lower Band has started to curve downwards indicating volatility for the downside on this 1w chart.
Note that the 50MA (Orange Line) is getting really close to the 200MA (Red Line). If the 50MA crosses under the 200MA on this 1w chart that will create a death cross on this 1 week timeframe.
VET is now fighting to stay above its support area located at $0.01978 and $0.0181. If VET closes a weekly candle below $0.0181 then we should drop to around $0.0120.
VET is below its 1 ($0.01845) Trend Based Fib Extension Level. Failure to close a weekly candle above this level will lead to further drops.
Looking at the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) we can see the area i which the most Volume was traded on VET/USD.
Note that VET is close to dropping under its 78.60% Fib Retracement Level at $0.01811.
I have added a Modified Schiff Pitchfork pattern and you can clearly see that VET has a long way togo before crossing back above its Median Line.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is still weak with the ADX (Orange Line) at 16.34 and still under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line). Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 16.39. Negative Momentum has Increased with the -DI (Red Line) rising to 24.32.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that there is still plenty of room for VET to drop before becoming Oversold on this 1w chart. Note that the RSI (Purple Line) is still under its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a sign of downwards strength on this 1w timeframe.
So what does all this tell me:
This is all just my opinion but this tells me that there is plenty of room for VET to drop further on this 1w timeframe especially if it closes a weekly candle below its 78.60% Fib Retracement level.
Once this world wide recession fully bottoms be it in a 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then opportunities will arise for those who are ready. My crypto of choice is obviously VET and a few others that have use cases but this goes for all Crypto’s so soon your crypto of choice will be available at an even lower bargain price. Especially if/when BTC drops to the $12k-$9k range. Please see the chart below.
I hope this is helpful with your trading or hodl-ing.
Gold Pullback potentialHi friends.
Unfortunately we have bad times in iran and im so sorry about that.
i couldnt post any analysis for 2 weeks and i hope you accept my excuse.
God bless all IRANs people.
As you can see i think we have a strong Resistance level approch.
and also a valid trend line.
this Resistance level overlap with trend line and after going up to around 1680
the price will react and make a pullback.
wait for price to pullback compeletely and after you receive confirmation
(mostly bearish candlestick patterns) , you can go SHORT.
and in addition we saw the 55MA crosses 100MA and 100MA crosses 200MA
and this is a death cross.
thank you all.
PRAY FOR US WE HAVE VERY VERY BAD TIMES IN IRAN.
The beginning of the BIG short !Another wave another short, a BIG short !
After the bearish confirmation with the break of the $3636 level on Sept. 27, the first bounce wave ended on Oct. 5, and the bearish acceleration on Oct. 13 with the lows supporting Fibo 50%, yet another wave of technical bounce is about to end. The opening short area starts at $3750 with a more important area between $3800 and $3815 (highlighted in deeper red).
More acceleration could occur soon due to a confluence of factors : inflation data, FED interest rates, quarterly and the 50/100 weekly moving averages crossing downward (Death Cross).
I will open SHORT positions in the entire area from $3750 up to $3815, with larger positions between $3800 and $3815
The long-term trend remains unchanged as from the first analysis on August 26, with a long-term target in the $2200 area.
US TECH: Would you like butter on that toast?When US Tech stocks were heading in a northbound trend, nobody had a problem in 'predicting' anything.
Now we see the emergence of a death cross, and folk are struggling to believe what's happening. At each major bearish rebellion in the bear trend, there are shouts of hope.
Even slight increases in unemployment are now a cause for hope. Because hopesters 'know' that poor employment is a sign that inflation is being beaten. And if inflation is being beaten then the FED will back off with QT and interest rate hikes. Well of course it doesn't quite work like that - there is a more complicated relationship between employment and inflation.
So volatility in all markets drawing strength from US TECH has been up lately.
Two key things to watch:
1 - Amber daily ATR.
2 - 200 EMA in relation to daily ATR.
The markets have a lot of work to do before there is a clear reversal for the north. Most of them would have to break above a daily ATR and remain above for considerable time. No sign of that as yet.
20 and 200 Week MA Death CrossHi everyone,
Thank you for considering reading my idea.
In this pattern, we are seeing the 20 week moving average in red, and the 200 week moving average in green. We can see back in 2015 and 2019, they ALMOST formed a death cross and Bitcoin price has been mostly above the 200 week moving average.
Our current scenario, in the next few weeks, we may see a death cross between these two moving averages. We can also see that Bitcoin has been mostly below the 200 week moving average, compared to 2015 and 2019. The pattern could be broken where Bitcoin will PROBABLY not rally higher in the next few months since this is the first time we are seeing this. Although, you can also say that this is just a unique scenario but the pattern will still play out.
Overall, I'm still neutral but a bit leaning to a bearish scenario. A bullish scenario wouldn't hurt as well. If we break the 20 week moving average and hold it as support, I would be more bullish.
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more ideas like this. NFA. TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers,
Juvar
A death cross that never happened to Bitcoin is about to happen.A 200 and 21 weekly MA crossover are never happened in bitcoin history ever. Such moving average crossover almost occurred back in September 2015 but the price immediately reverse direction to the upside so that the death cross didn't happen.
This time the price of bitcoin has stayed below the 200 weekly moving average for a relatively long period of time. Bitcoin tried to break above the 200 weekly MA but got rejected which increased the potential downside for bitcoin and increased the likeliness of a death cross to happen.
VIX analisys 13 August 2022 - why I’m still bearish on SP500That is abviously a death cross on VIX daily chart but if you look in the past last year, I doesn’t mean the trend will go much lower. We had similar thing in the beginning of this year but VIX quickly rallied and we are where we are now.
Now, that’s of the way, Here are the reasons we soon see big drop on all indices:
- Most of the indices tend to take same direction. If US indices rally- the others will follow.
- when VIX is going down- the incides rally- this is what is happening now
- the last three years is a rollercoaster and everytime VIX is dropping down and RSI is almost oversold- it moves back up with a strong move. The RSI is 34.6 now. It’s pretty low and if you look into last couple of years, this is where we should be carefull when trading.
I personally believe that current VIX drop is a warning sign that this rally will be a big one but I don’t see divergency yet. It could mean VIX will stay hear for a while, and indices will try to break up. Also August is always a slow month, people being away on holiday.
Again if you look at past years, September is one of the worst months in trading.
There are many ways to do the market analisys, so I’m not saying I’m right.
It’s completely my gut feeling but I don’t see any reasons why markets could reach ATH this year, or even anywhere close:
- the war in Ukraine is still on
- interests rates are going up and FED is not done yet
- energy prices are going up, in three months winter season will start - this will be struggle to pay the bills for households and businesses.
- companies won’t be able to afford bills, loans, and staff to pay
- sure we have good jobs data by it’s summer. How many of these jobs are season jobs, how many of these are second jobs?
- tension between China and US
I could go on…
Trading is risky, this is not a financial advice, always do your own analisys
3 Day Death Cross Just WonderingWhat if we bottom this month... I mean it is literally the least possible thing and most likely most people and MORE people will stay too bearish and in disbelief of investing in crypto while it destroys the all time highs within a year and a half to two years... but I am just saying if we do bottom it would be the least expected move in my opinion with all the Fed Fud and such.... Never financial advice... I am always dollar cost averaging... and I feel like we are in a buyers market and anyone selling are selling to the strong hands,, We will see what happens but I just have a funny feeling something is up. Nothing to send the markets to all time highs anytime soon, but to slow down the sell off to build the structure for the next major move... nothing is promised with uncertainty, but I love seeing where we at with this chart for the macro look.
AAPL/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishAAPL/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *With China loosening their Covid-19 restrictions/lockdowns and planning QE (via a digital Yuan airdrop ) in the coming weeks, fears regarding supply chain constraints' potential negative effect on Apple product demand for their next market cycle is starting to subside. Additionally, Apple announced a new $90b share buyback program and a dividend increase of 7% . However, Big Tech is not out of the rubble yet so it's a bit premature to get too bullish at the moment.* Recommended ratio: 60% AAPL, 40% Cash. Price is currently testing $149.05 minor resistance (which is also the largest supply/demand zone on record) as the 50 MA is on the verge of crossing below the 200 MA (which would form a Death Cross); it should be noted that even though the 50 MA is so close to crossing over, it is a lagging indicator and therefore can reject the crossover at the very last second. Volume remains high (moderate) and is currently on track to break a three day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $133; this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 48, just below 57.58 resistance; the next support is at 35.61. Stochastic remains bullish at 98 and is currently on the verge of testing max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -4.36 after bouncing off of the ATL at -6.69; the next resistance is at -2.36. ADX is currently trending down at 23.71 as Price is surging, this indicates that either a temporary retracement or a trend reversal is underway and is thus mildly bullish. If Price is able to flip $149.05 minor resistance to support, then the next likely target is a test of $157.42 resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely increase the odds of a Death Cross significantly and have Price retest $138.46 support (which would coincide with the lower trendline of the channel from January 2019). Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $146.82.
Death Cross Forms on Ethereum Classic Daily ChartEthereum Classic (ETC) printed the death cross signal on the daily chart, which is a warning signal that calls for more downside. The death cross signal occurs when the short-term 50-day simple moving average crosses below the long-term 200-day simple moving average.
Death Cross Signal
The last time the death cross signal occurred in October 2021, ETC fell by 62%. However, the last 3 times that ETH saw the death cross, it acted as a contrarian signal. On average, the death cross signal has triggered around a 30% sell-off before bouncing back. A 30% sell-off could send ETC's price down to around the $14 level.
In the short-term, ETC’s price is facing resistance between $24 and $26. Simultaneously, the RSI oscillator is also approaching the 50 mid-level. Therefore, if the RSI oscillator is able to break above the mid-level 50, bullish momentum may come back to the market.
Other Side of the Coin: On the flip side, a daily break and close above the $24 - $26 resistance zone could open the door for a retest of the 50-day SMA, which currently falls at $29.70. Further to the upside, the next major resistance comes around the $37.50 level.
SP500 - Overall 50-70% Decline in MarketsWe have the death cross, bearish market structure, inflation, US stocks overvalued, major debt, rising interest rates, rising food costs, supply shortages and many more factors which will cause a major market correction over the next year or two, maybe longer.
We may get a bump up to the 50ema or 200ema but a continued fall which I think will be between 50-70%. Why not take the money and move it to something a little safer than equities? It will take years to fully recover from this correction. Markets are always bullish bias which is needed but this bubble will change the landscape for awhile.
I'm just some random guy on the internet stating my opinion.
3D death corss (Bitcoin)3D death cross has occurred exactly as told you guys in the mid of may we can see some volatility now so wait for the 28k support to break, So far it is holding pretty good but tapping so much on to the support makes it weak higher chance of breaking down from the support, if this happens we see some more downside as we have showed the potential target for the bear flag pattern is 19k also we do have 200MA support on the weekly, Which is sitting around 21k.
Time will tell what will happen although IMO it is goin down...
Is the DAX toast?Chart features:
1 - It's a bear market at this time.
2- A clear death cross is seen.
3- Now a parallel channel has emerged.
To become bullish again the DAX would need to get above 14712 and stay above.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BTC Sorry, the thing kept telling me my title wasn't in English so idk wtf to do about that. Stupid broken thing. Yay technology.
Anyway, BTC looking like hell here. If we don't see a golden cross soon, its not good at all. So take up your shorts if you feel a bit adventurous.
If the price falls any lower, you can be sure that support has failed and more bearish movement incoming.