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Deathcross

🚨💡BTC: 'Hidden' Death Cross 100% Probability of Correction💡🚨Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability. The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion. Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets. In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross, For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage. 5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: -.... - 100% Probability of Market Contraction - Average contraction: 64% Standard Deviation (Confidence); - SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction - SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction - SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage. 4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...... - 100% Probability of Market Expansion Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation Conclusion: I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time. Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends. As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021. What do you think? yemala
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
24
Crash Alert of Death cross Similar to the crossover of Daily 50 and 200 moving average, 20 and 50 moving cross over also effect sometime super and some times mini crash. currently 20 moving average is about to cross over the 50 daily moving average, we are likely to see little upset in a coming days but Since we are already entered in a Golden cross of Daily 50 and 200 moving averages, it may delay the effects of both crosses and neutral the BTC market in to consolidations. History reveals a major and minor upsets whenever 20moving average crossover the 50 daily moving average.
by abdulmajid_sarwar
Bitcoin is confirming the next Bear MarketHello Everyone, Quick post for today. After a 20x gain over an entire year, I believe Bitcoin is confirming the next bear market cycle. Here are the technicals: 1. Rejection of the Hull Moving Average: The hull moving average has been a consistent determination in whether we remain in cycle or not. In both previous cycles, we see Bitcoin lose the hull moving average then on an attempt to regain, it rejects or fails and price continues downward. 2. Death cross: After rejecting the hull moving average, there is a death cross of the 20WMA and the 50WMA. This immediately happens after rejection and is another confirmation of a bear market. 3. Dead Cat bounce: There were 2 distinct dead cat bounces right after the fall from each cycle ATH. This is noticeable with the bearish price action: low volume higher price 4. Negative RSI: RSI seems to be going down as bitcoin continued to make highs. This is a bearish indication 5. Weakening MACD: MACD is weakening as bitcoin has another attempt at the 65k all time high. Although some of you may be discouraged, angry, or depressed the bear market is the best place to DCA and restock swing trade buys. My guess is the bottom is consistent with the 200WMA as it has been the bottom of each of the other two bear cycles. My plan moving forward is to DCA between the 100 and 200 WMA as well as look for swing trade plays during the bear market. As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RomanXIV
17
Is American Airlines Flying South?American Airlines has been trying to hold $20 for the last two months, but now it may be ready for a deeper breakdown. Notice how AAL bounced firmly at that level in mid-April. It’s tried to get back above $20 in the past month, but without much success. That suggests old support has become new resistance. Next you have the trio of lower highs on July 27, August 11 and September 9. Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has been pushing downward toward the 200-day SMA. At its current pace, that “death cross” could occur soon. Fourth, the weekly chart had a bearish inside candle last week and a bearish outside candle this week. That may suggest a period of tightening and consolidation is ending. Finally, the macro backdrop is potentially difficult for AAL as travel remains below pre-pandemic levels and Transports struggle. It’s also one of the most leveraged members of the S&P 500. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NASDAQ:AALShort
by TradeStation
1
S&P:What do we say to the God of the Death Cross.507 days since ES mini crossed over the death cross. My idea is that the fed QE and stimulus bill passed March 27 elevated the market out of its previous channel formed in the 2008 financial crisis into a much steeper "By The Dip Channel". The market will need to eventually cross over the 50/200 day death cross. Last encountered March 27 (507d) Big MOC ES prints started hitting March 27th 2020 shortly after the MOC meeting that day. @spotgamma tweeted I've been told by the futures guys that the 3:50 MOC headline brought a nano-second later ES print that was "f'ing huge". twitter.com The short term outlook depends on what's said at Jackson Hole. ES may continue a slow burn up into higher resistance levels and a hawkish Jackson Hole meeting could mean send it down 4-7% correction territory. Gary Wagner from this video suggests a more hawkish outlook to start tapering in 2022. The purple line in the channel represents stimulus, low interest rates, asset purchases and an opposing decline in stimulus, asset purchases, rising interest rates moratorium ending. The opposing line represents a hawkish tapering decision in 2022 to 2023 with the goal of returning the market to its pre pandemic channel in the weekly. The don't think we'll completely return to the previous channel from 2008 but rather some combination of the Speculation Market and a return to Fundamentals. We will cross over the death cross, but I believe Jay Powell will let the market correct itself gradually rather than some black swan event everyone seems to call for (example: Michael Burry).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
We may only just now be breaking above the falling wedge It appears now that the falling wedge I spoke about a couple ideas back may only just now be having priceaction breaking above it. If this is the case it means that the top trendline of the wedge was actually at a slightly less acute angle. Either way in the long run it wouldn't surprise me if we end up reaching the target of the wedge with the more acute top trendline as well as the price target of the wedge shown here with the new top trendline, if this correction is finally over. If this new top trendline is the more valid wedge then the breakout target is around 47k. Should we reach this target that will carry price action reasonably above both the 1 day 50ma and 200ma and could help cause the recent deathcross to end up being more of a bear trap fakeout than a deathcross. We are also inside a channel with the descending green trendline representing the top of the channel and the bottom purple trendline of the wedge also acting as the bottom trendline of the channel. We're we to confirm a breakout from the wedge right here and have a measured move target of 47k,. odds are good we would break out upward from the channel on our way to that 47k target. We can see already that the first candle above the new top trendline on the daily chart has already retested the trendline as support. That is a good sign for the bulls but we won't have confirmation of the breakout in my opinion until we see 3 consecutive 1 day candle closes above the trendline or a huge surge in bullish volume and a big green candle to go with it. whichever happens first. For now there is no confirmation of a breakout here on this new top trendline of the wedge but it is looking promising. Stoch rsi still has a good amount of room to move upward on the 1 day chart as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
2
GOLD - Severe Technical Damages on Daily ChartAfter touching 1680 in Asia morning session, gold has had rebounced to 1750. This 1750-1760 area used to be support, now turnes resistance which proves to be a pivot area. A breakdown under 2018-2019 uptrend line is in progress. The daily chart shows severe technical damages with combination of death cross, trendline breakdown, and negative MACD. Unless gold is able to recover above this pivot area or the uptrend line, gold might again head to 1660-1680 support area.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
CAD/JPY Forming a Bearish Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern?CAD/JPY may be in the process of forming a bearish Head & Shoulders reversal chart pattern. The right shoulder may complete if prices turn lower on the 88.30 - 87.97 inflection zone, where the left shoulder was created back in March. If prices turn lower, the neckline seems to be the 85.82 - 85.41 support zone. Breaking under this area could open the door to extending May's top. That would place the focus on rising support from 2020 which could reinstate the dominant upside focus. Furthermore, a bearish ' Death Cross ' between the near-term 20- and 50-day SMAs are underscoring the technical bias to the downside. FX_IDC:CADJPY
by QM_Dubrovsky
EURUSD: Potential great SELL opportunitySo price has came back as expected to the supply zone around 1.19. If i think about it, price should not be higher than 1.19 per US dollar, and I believe a major currency like USD and EUR more often than not react to these rounded number, since a whole country or even a continent is dealing with that currency , which makes breaking above or below 0.1 is not easy. that said :), I see a good opportunity to short EURUSD currently. its worth mentioning that the last daily candle coincided with a death cross (50EMA crossing below the 230EMA). Based on my backtesting of golden / death cross and wether they play out, I can say that in more than 80% of the cases when these crosses happen on the daily timeframe, then there is a high chance that price will continue pushing into that direction., with exception to when price is ranging.
Short
by Mamou-Q
Chart Training with Jay Rhyder - MA SignalsHello and welcome to a small series I thought I would start to help people understand market charts. Enjoy and leave me a comment about what you liked or didn't like. Thank you for your support! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Take a look at this chart. It is a 1 hour Coinbase chart of Ethereum (ETH/USD). One of the best ways to understand if the market is going to rally or go south is to pay attention to the MOVING AVERAGES, or MA lines. As you can see, the white line on this chart is the 50 day, the dark purple one is the 200 day and the pink one is the 150 day moving average, respectfully. When you see the 50 day moving up like in this chart, and the 200 day on top of the 150 day, it is a bullish signal. The opposite is true for bearish markets. It is called a DEATH CROSS. It is when the 50 day is on the bottom of the 150 and 200 and the 200 day is on top of the 150 day moving average. When the 200 day crosses DOWN through the 150 day, it is called a DEATH CROSS and is a very, very bearish signal. If you have any questions about this short and concise tutorial, please leave your question or comment below. I hope you learned something from this short tutorial. My name is Jay - have the best day! :)
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by financetrance
1
Campbell Soup at Risk of Breaking DownCampbell Soup has struggled for years. Now it may be at risk of breaking a key support line. Notice the $45 level on this chart. CPB clung to this price zone in late 2017 before moving lower in 2018 and 2019. It rebounded as the pandemic drove demand for packaged foods, but even then remained well below the previous highs from mid-2016. Next, notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently slid beneath the 200-day SMA: a bearish “death cross.” Prices have remained below the downward price gap on June 9, which followed a disappointing quarterly report. Management tried to blame cost inflation, but weak demand and volumes also played a part. Finally, relative strength has been poor in consumer staples. They're the second-worst performing sector this year after utilities. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
CShort
by TradeStation
1