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DEATHS

COVID: WINNING OR LOSING THE WAR?The chart shows cumulative cases in USA, GB and Germany. Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more. But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why? Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may get excited if there is a fall in rates over a few weeks. But short term rates do not give the big picture. Cumulative figures over along period tell a different story. How they are interpreted is important. The actual figure at any one point is not that important. It is the shape of the curve that matters more. How? If a virus is dying out, one can expect there would be very little accumulation. We should see a clear flattening or perhaps only a very gentle rise. If the virus died completely, the curve would flatten and remain flat because accumulation would be zero. Of the big three GB (green) and USA(amber) have been taking on a sharper rise. It appears that the accumulation began around 1st December 2021 and that was realised near 25th December. Obviously, Omicron was a new phase - piling on the accumulation. Whilst the Omicron variant appears to have a lower case fatality rate than previous versions, what we're seeing in other data is how disruptive it is of health, other essential services, and transportation services. Evolutionary theory will say that an organism mutates in the direction of an advantage that maximises its survival. Omicron has achieved that. It was not surprising. It's not in COVID's survival strategy, to become more 'killing' - simply because it needs more of its host to spread itself. What we don't need is a stronger big brother of Omicron. Omicron (and Delta) are more serious risks to economies than death rates from infection.
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by Captain_Walker
COVID IN THE USA: REALITY IS A HARSH PLACETradingview has some amazing data on COVID. This chart is of importance for long term investment purposes (see fat disclaimer below). Importantly this is about total of all cases infections and deaths. Some may say that's meaningless. But there are important features on the chart. Say what you see! I'll say what I see. If the war on COVID was being won, one would expect to see at least clear plateaus. That makes sense because it means there is no massive set of new cases to increase the total. I hope folk get the point. Watch the red arrows. 1. On death total - it's accelerating. Certainly no plateau. 2. On case total - it's accelerating. No plateau. Of course this does not mean that the numbers won't plateau. The point is that the trajectories and the power of the numbers means they're not winning the war. A plateau would probably have been expected in the post-vaccination era. Some say, the plateau is coming soon. How would they know. Do they know the future better than everybody else? All I know is what I see: There are no plateaus. Do we stay with evidence or do we believe rhetoric repeated in lamestream media? Well, the choice is yours. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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by Captain_Walker
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COVID-19 France confirmed/recovered/deathsI would like to know someone who studied normalized Gaussian curves with expected value u and variance o2. In theory, the more we will test people, the more the curve will spike rapidly, to go down rapidly, but it's just mathematics, not epidemiology. According to epidemiologists, there won't be second wave before September 2020. Here is the official numbers according to the Regional Health Agency : dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr 160 750 confirmed cases Reduction in confirmed cases due to a change in calculation method. Since June 2, patients who test positive are only counted once. 29 663 deaths 9 693 hospitalizations 74 612 returns to home 701 in reanimation 19 206 deaths at hospital 37 901 confirmed cases in retirement house and medical social establishment 10 457 deaths in retirement house and medical social establishment
CEducation
by Nugacity_Fracedinous
DEATHS_USD. P-Modeling Pt 2. Black Death of Cajuns Wave Two What a fucked up time we are about to enter.. Welcome to the Paradigm Shift. I wish you the best of luck in these upcoming months.. not in just trading but in your physical, and mental health. I hope I am wrong. Please Read this chart very carefully. I have way to many things I can not ignore. I will spare you the lecture. You may not understand. But.. Do not underestimate the power of this second wave. It will be one of the biggest global crisis of the our time. I really hope I look like a fool on this chart. Please for the love of nature. I hope I am wrong. because if I am even remotely right.. The second half of 2020 will make the first half of 2020 seem like a cool summer breeze on a crisp fall day. ____________________________________________________________ The storm has arrived. Which way will the wind blow... If you are a doubter of covid-19, you won't be soon. Store Shelves will be empty again soon. Emergency rooms will be bursting at the seams. Backup hospitals will be bursting at the seams. 12% increase of deaths per week at onset of parabolic death rate. Mandatory Lockdowns for another 3 months. Civil Outcries. Civil Unrest. Market Capitulations. Economic Collapse. and most importantly... Chaotic Change.. Change that will shape the next 10 years. Wave Two of Covid-19 will be in the history books someday. We are beginning the transition into the 4th industrial revolution. The Cybernetic One. So what path do we take folks.. The best case scenario or worst case scenario.. What side of history will you be remembered by? Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
DLong
by Glitch420
6
The COVID virus may come back in 3 waves (based on Spanish flu)Please note I am using the TradingView Confirmed TOTAL COVID data line and then projecting how I think COVID will progress using the Spanish Flu as precedence - I am also assuming there will be no vaccine at least till next summer: I have tried to keep this analysis/projection simple using two estimates: 1) Looking at how the Spanish flu happened in 3 waves and the time frame in which that happened; 2) Looking at the direction of the exponential increase in confirmed cases globally.
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by arigolden
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