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FEDERAL DEBT priced in the DOW JONES is too HIGH!Those dollars that the US government owes must be inflated away! As paying back 33 Trillion dollars is not feasible in today's version of dollars. So they must be paid in even more worthless dollar currency units. If the US government stops spending they will send the US economy into a recession. They must continue to pump money into the economy and the stock market. The con job that inflation is under control is a lie.. and we will continue to see higher prices the rest of the decade albeit at a slower rate. BUT even 2% annual inflation compounded will erode purchasing power quickly as we have seen in the past. And I have charted before. I believe we will continue to see the stock market ramp up the next two quarters before taking a summer break. The underlying hidden to most, inflation trend, will continue to inflate revenues and earnings for most stocks going forward. The bottom line is that Inflation is a FRAUD perpetuated on the people by the Government. They print and spend the money first, and then the workers get it after beingTAXED and after prices have gone up. Then they TAX you on the gain in asset prices! :) So if u can invest in assets that are in wrapped up Tax free vehicles --- seek those out. #Crypto can be a way to supercharge your returns for periods of time, but come with inherent, built in volatility --- most people walk away with, what could have been stories -- rather than life changing returns
FRED:GFDEBTN
by BallaJi
3
Tesla Valuation back to 2010 IPO$TSLA has had wild swings in valuation from under 2 times sales and over 20 times sales in the past few years. Granted, you have to know the future to know what the sales are, but in 2019 it was insanely cheap just as the Model Y was just starting to sell. The MODEL Y is why Tesla has done so well in my opinion. It has dominated and is still growing insanely fast and taking out the competition. The car is amazing. From the first moment I drove it using Turo out in the snow in Montana in 2020 I knew it was a world-car and it was in the largest segment which is Crossover SUV. After the Model Y started dominating, the valuation of Tesla then got up to over 20 times sales, which is beyond insane. Markets provide you with opportunities to buy when things are cheap, but there are uncertainties. Then the market provides you with opportunities to sell when things are expensive, but the momentum and price gains are so strong that it is tempting to hold on. The best thing you can do is learn how to act in both situations. Also, it is OK to watch a stock go higher AFTER you sell. Let go of the need to think you are the smartest person in the market. The person buying from you deserves the right "to be right" for awhile too. So where does $TSLA stand now? In the middle between expensive and cheap. If Tesla goes lower, it gets cheaper and as sales growth continues it will drive the PSR down near 5-4 within 12 months. Will Tesla see 2 times sales again? I doubt it because at 2 times sales before it had a lot of debt ($10B and there were survival concerns at that time along with a VERY LOW investment grade rating in the junk-status category.) Now the opposite is true. Tesla has billions in cash and enough capital to buy back stock and still meet their capital spending for many years. To step back and view the situation from a rational perspective, you have to look at the extremely high valuation that Tesla reached in the bubble of 2020-2021-2022. Step back and look at the long term valuation and trends. Stay tuned. Tim 9:20AM-9:37AM Thursday, November 10, 2022 184.24 last $TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLA
by timwest
14
AXP, THE PLATINUM CARD ISN'T ACTUALLY PLATINUMTrends and price targets marked. Things are overextended Potential to bounce back and catch more upside even with the overextension. Guideline is more for backtracking, but it could potentially look something like this. Follow trends and price targets rather than guideline, it is more to get an idea of what things could look like. 247 or so looks like a top to me especially with the trend formation I would suggest watching a break on the lowest green support trend and I would also suggest watching a rejection on the rejection trend. Should we break out of rejection trend, probably 360. Drop will be steep, but the most natural path would be the 247 drop to 80. I would say, if you're looking to enter, wait and be patient. If there is more upside, you're not missing much. If downside is coming, there are still trend support lines that can see bounces in price, meaning, you'll likely be able to find a better entry that allows for less risk.
NYSE:AXP
by nicktussing77
1
5 ways to win with Gold and Silver in 2024Potential Narratives: 1. The Fed truly pauses and starts to ease, creating easier money conditions, money printing 2. Election year may be bullish for assets, metals have lagged 3. De-dollarizing theme globally is favorable for metals 4. More global conflicts potentially could cause more US debt, which favors metals 5. Weakness in the economy can cause metals to outperform even on the downside We love our stories and narratives. Emotionally it helps us understand the "why" something is happening. Metals have underperformed stocks, bonds, and real estate for years now. It wouldn't take but a few breakouts to get a trend started in metals. Gold is already at all time highs. Silver has more work to do. With more debt on the horizon and the world unhappy with each other, the case for precious metals as a store of value makes more and more sense. In the past, bullish runs in metals lasted for 8-14 years. If we say the current trend is a bull run, and we say it started in 2020, then we still have many years to see the cycle play out. maybe til at least 2028? Please feel free to add your comments and opinions below. cheers!
TVC:GOLDLong
by optionfarmers
Bearish movementEnglish Right now, we are having very bad news for the crypto market, special with the Binance issue with the US regulators and Binance`s CEO had to abandon his position, it looks like agood moment to get the open liquidity which was open after those big bullish movements. There`s a debt in the 78% fibo extension which I believe is going to be taken after some days or weeks around the price 32$ per Solana and after that, we are going to have an amazing bullish movement. However, we need to be careful because in any moment we could hear any news about the Bitcoin ETF which is going to make the market very very bullish, so... Be careful with the next movements in the price and the news. *THIS IT NOT INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THIS IS ONLY FOR ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION PURPOSE* Español En este momento, estamos con pèsimas noticias en el mercado cripto, en especial con ese tema de Binance contra los reguladores de EU,los cuales provocaron que el CEO de Binance renunciara el día de hoy, y parece un buen momento para tomr la liquidez abierta que quedo cuando comenzó ese pequeño bull run. Hay una deuda en el 78% de la extensión del Fibo cercano al precio de los 32$ por Solana, el cual considero debería ir a tomar en los próximos días o semanas, después de eso, espero movimientos súper fuertes al alza. Sin embargo, necesitamos ser cautelosos porque en cualquier momento podríamos recibir noticias sobre el ETF de Bitcoin y eso podría generar subidas astronómicas en el mercado. *ESTO NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN DE INVERSIÓN NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA, ESTO ES SOLO PARA ANÁLISIS Y EDUCACIÓN*
Short
by DarkTradingCapital
Possible XAUUSD movementEnglish I´m going to make an analysis on a monthly timeframe looking for our market structure, we have all the HH and HL with at least 50% of our fibo retrament. We take a look at the fibo retracement to see where could I take profits when the price breaks the last H and we found two interesting zones (-10% and -27%), that is a rare way to use the fibo retracement, but it really works. Then, I checked if the price let any debt to look after it and I found one in the 100% price of our fibo extension, the price is going to be there (close to the price 1406) in some time (weeks, years or even decades), when? We have to take a look at it then. In that price we could star buying. On a weekly time frame there is a kind of bearish structure, not too clear, but on a daily and 4hrs time frame look better, it is making LL and LH and if nothing happen in the conflict in the middle east, could look for prices right down. *THIS IT NOT INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THIS IS ONLY FOR ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION PURPOSE* Español Voy a analizar el mercado en temporalidad mensual para identificar nuestra estructura de mercado, tenemos altos más altos y bajos más altos con al menos un 50% de retroceso de Fibonacci. Echamos un vistazo a nuestro retroceso de Fibonacci para identificar donde podríamos tomar profits cuando el precio rompa ese último máximo y encontramos dos zonas interesantes (-10% y -27%), esa es una rara manera de usar el retroceso de Fibonacci, pero realmente funciona. Luego, verifiqué si el precio dejo alguna deuda para tener en cuenta y encontré una en el 100% del precio en la extensión del fibonacci, el precio llegará allí (cerca del precio 1406) in algún momento, (semanas, años o incluso decadas), ¿cuándo? Tenemos que ver con el tiempo, pero en ese precio podemos comenzar a comprar. En temporalidad semanal hay un tipo de estructura bajista, no tan clara, pero en diario y 4Hrs se ve mucho mejor, está dando bajs más bajos y altos más bajos y si nada sucede en el conflicto en medio oriente, podríamos buscar precios abajo. *ESTO NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN DE INVERSIÓN NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA, ESTO ES SOLO PARA ANÁLISIS Y EDUCACIÓN*
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DarkTradingCapital
Possible movement US30English First of all, I looked at the market structure, we have a pretty clear bullish structure, the first HH and HL were OK in its structure without any debt. Then, looking at the next HH and HL, we noticed that the price didn`t cover at least the 50% of our Fibo, so we still have a nice zone to keep an eye on it for future bullish movements. I used the fibo expansion to see if we have any debt in the first movement from the last HL and I noticed a debt in the 78% of it, a nice zone for a possible bullish movement in the future after a financial crash or something really strong like a recesion. All of this on a daily time frame. Looking at the other structure from the last HL, I noticed a bearish structure, but in the last days the price broke the last H, so we could expect for possible higher prices, but it would be good for the price to have a retracement before to do it and possible, give us another HH and HL. We have to be carefull because we now are on a zone where the markets doesn`t give us HH or LL or anything like that, we need to wait for the price to break that structure for further movements. *THIS IT NOT INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THIS IS ONLY FOR ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION PURPOSE* Español Primero que todo, mirè la estructura de mercado, tenemos una estructura alcista muy clara, en el primer alto màs alto y bajo más alto su estructura notiene ninguna deuda. Luego, mirando el próximo altomás alto y bao más alto, notamos que el precio o fue hasta el 50% del Fibo, por lo que tenemos una zona interesante a ver en el futuro para futuros movimientos al alza. Usé la expansión de Fibo para ver si tenemos alguna deuda en su primer movimiento desde su último bajo más alto y noté una deuda en el 78% del mismo, una buena zona para posibles futuras compras, esperando una futura recesión o algún crash financiero. Todo esto en temporalidad diaria. Mirando la esturctura desde el último bajo más alto, notamos una estructura bajista, pero en los últimos días el precio rompió el último alto, por lo que podemos esperar precios más altos, pero sería bueno para el precio tener un retroces antes de hacerlo y posteriormente darnos otro alto más alto y bajo más alto. Tenemos que ser cuidadosos porque ahora estamos en una zona donde el mercado no me ha dado ni altos más altos o bajos más bajos, tenemos que esperar a que el precio rompa su estructura para ver futuros movimientos. *ESTO NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN DE INVERSIÓN NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA, ESTO ES SOLO PARA ANÁLISIS Y EDUCACIÓN*
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by DarkTradingCapital
Possible GBPUSD movementsEnglish First of all, I looked at the market structure, we have a very clear bearish structure since the 70´s and I looked at the last fractal to see the possible movements and debts the price may cover in his path. I saw the last movements during (The LL and LH) that last bearish movement that the price didn´t get at least the 50% Fibo´s, it happened with the two bearish movements. I took a look as well at the possible debts and I used the Fibo extension and noticed a debt in the level 1 (100), so we still have a zone to cover right down (A possible LL). So, we have two possible movements and two debts that we need to pay attention, one in the 1.86648 price to look for bearish movement and another one waiting for the price to go down and get the debt in the 1 (100) zone of our Fibo extension in the price 0.95397. Let´s see what the market does to "refresh" my analysis. *THIS IT NOT INVEStMENT RECOMMENDATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THIS IS ONLY FOR ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION PURPOSE* Español Primero que todo, miramos la estructura de mercado, tenemos una estructura claramente bajista desde los 70s y me enfoqué en su último fractal bajista para identificar posibles movimientos y deudas del precio en su camino. Vi los últimos movimientos (alto más bajo y bajos más bajos) en su último movimiento a la baja e identifiqué que el precio no cubrió en ninguno de sus retrocesos al menos el 50% del Fibo, por lo que tenemos vacios donde el precio tiene que subir en algún momento. También vi lo que serían posibles deudas en la zona baja e identifiué una deuda en la zona del 1 (100), justo por debajo del último precio a la baja, por lo que tenemos un posible bajo más bajo que cubrir. Por lo tanto, tenemos dos posibles movimientos y dos deudas a las que debemos prestarle atención, uno en el precio 1.86648 para buscar posibles ventas y otra esperando un nuevo movimiento a la baja hasta el precio 0.95397 buscando posibles compras. Ya veremos qué hace el mercado para actualizar nuestro análisis. *ESTO NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN DE INVERSIÓN NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA, ESTO ES SOLO PARA ANÁLISIS Y EDUCACIÓN*
Short
by DarkTradingCapital
Bonds are compelling as collateralEver since 2008, the world shifted more to the world of collateral and distrust, after the world of unsecured collapsed. Treasuries are dollars are in the future. As long as uncertainty remains high (or increases) there will be a place for government loans. Treasuries yielding near 5% on most maturities is "good enough" when compared to the historical 7% ish from equities. Technically speaking, treasuries may be forming a short term bottom. Tactically speaking, the gap between treasuries and stocks is very wide. Fundamentally speaking, there may not be enough reward to justify most large cap equities current yield when compared to the healthy yield in treasuries. Risk speaking, the biggest risk in holding treasuries is the loss in opportunity and the risk of more dollar devaluation/consumer inflation loss of purchasing power. In summary, Treasuries are worth a shot and they are likely de-risked at current levels. I will be considering bullish option spreads.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by optionfarmers
2
US Govt Real Debt is Down Last 3 YearsThe "real value of the US Gov't Debt" is a different way of looking at our situation through rose-colored glasses, but it is a fair analysis. If we "adjust the debt level for inflation" as measured by the CPI Index (All Urban Consumers Index) from the beginning of the series back in 1966, you will have a line that is grinding SIDEWAYS since October 2020 at a reading of $105.9 Billion. The latest number was the July reading at $105.1 Billion which is a slight decline. All of this sounds like "hocus-pocus" but it is a fact that inflation makes it easier for the Gov't to pay off its debt in the new "cheaper valued" dollars. The dollar is the same, only there are far more of them floating around in the system so each of them is worth less. If we analyze how the US debt has increased relative to other countries' debt, we could also see how we are doing. The financial market's are open for analysts to find discrepancies between the value of various currencies and over time, the market adjusts for the amount of currency being created in an economy. We can look at the TVC:DXY or US Dollar Index to see how the US economy has fared versus its trading partners. The Dollar Index is weighted for the amount of trading between the various currencies. I can follow up on that analysis in the next chart. For now, we can at least see an optimistic chart about the actual "REAL" amount of debt that the US Gov't (which is US, the taxpayers) has over the last 3 years. Covid spending and lockdown payments to keep the economy afloat certainly launched us up into the stratosphere FIRST but since 2020 that debt has been in a sideways pattern.
FRED:GFDEBTN
by timwest
6
🟩 Margin Debt with brokers points upWhen we look at the first chart the Margin Debt with brokers (aka how much the brokers are deploying margin) - we see a positive relationship with the times when brokers are on margin (aka buying a lot) and the market going up. When we analyse the Rate of Change of this stat for the last 15months we can see that currently we are getting to a state of bearishness close to the 2008 and 2002 periods. This of course is a contrarian indicator and could point to a move higher. This is a long term assessment, but it is a good point to include in your analysis. However remember we NEVER have confirmed of the NET NEW HIGHS - hence this market has still not confirmed Bull Status, at best we have Bull-transition. So be very cautious of the market.
FRED:BOGZ1FL663067003QLong
by TintinTrading
Unleashing the Potential of Defensive Market Sectors for a 10x RIn these unpredictable times, it is crucial to strategize and safeguard our investments against market volatility. While some may shy away from uncertainty, smart traders like yourself recognize the immense opportunities that lie within. By focusing on defensive market sectors, we can position ourselves for success, even in the face of adversity. So, what are these hidden gems, you ask? Let me enlighten you! Our thorough analysis and expert insights have highlighted three subdued ETF sectors that hold tremendous potential for exponential growth. By going long on these stocks, you can seize the opportunity to maximize your returns and secure a bright future for your portfolio.
NYSE:AMRLong
by bryandowningqln
Global debt hits record $307 trillion, debt ratios climb -IIFGlobal debt reached a record high of $307 trillion in the second quarter, despite higher interest rates limiting bank lending. The United States and Japan were the main drivers of this increase, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The IIF's report revealed that global debt in dollar terms rose by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade. This surge in debt has pushed the global debt-to-GDP ratio to 336% for the second consecutive quarter. The report attributes this rise to a slowdown in economic growth and price increases, resulting in nominal GDP expanding at a slower pace than debt levels. Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainability Research at the IIF, noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio is once again increasing after declining for seven consecutive quarters, mostly due to easing inflationary pressures. The IIF expects the debt-to-output ratio to surpass 337% by the end of the year, as wage and price pressures continue to moderate. Experts and policymakers have been warning about the growing levels of debt, which can lead countries, corporations, and households to tighten their belts and reduce spending and investments, ultimately impacting economic growth and living standards. More than 80% of the recent increase in debt came from developed countries, with the United States, Japan, Britain, and France experiencing the largest increases. Among emerging markets, China, India, and Brazil saw the highest rises in debt. This is a notable shift, as emerging markets are exhibiting a better trend compared to developed markets for the first time in a while, according to Todd Martinez, co-head of the Americas sovereign team at Fitch Ratings. The report also highlighted that household debt-to-GDP in emerging markets is still higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, primarily driven by China, Korea, and Thailand. However, mature markets have seen the lowest household debt-to-GDP ratio in two decades during the first half of this year. Tiftik mentioned that consumer debt burdens appear manageable, and if inflationary pressures persist, the health of household balance sheets, particularly in the United States, will provide some protection against further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. While markets currently do not anticipate a near-term rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the target rate is expected to remain between 5.25% and 5.5% until at least May of next year. This sustained high rate in the U.S. could put pressure on emerging markets as investors prioritize the less risky developed world for investment.
by HiumanPre
2
PRA Group: Bullish Shark at a Weekly Support Congestion ZonePRA Group is currently trading above a Support/Resistance Congestion Zone visible on the Weekly Timeframe, and at this zone it has formed a decently sized Bullish Shark pattern with a Bullish PPO Arrow as confirmation, and this all happens to align with the all-time 0.786 retrace. If this plays out, I think it could come back up to make around a 0.886 retrace, which would put it at around $60. For further context, PRA Group is a Debt Buyer/ Collector, which is something that furthers my interests in the stock.
NASDAQ:PRAALong
by RizeSenpai
3
How to keep your wealth and profit from the Debt Ceiling RisingMore debt leads to more devaluation. Its math. Thats why prices rise. Thats the magic trick we never learned in school. The game is designed this way. The machine harvests energy and keeps running. Debt is created by gov and spent into economy. Banks generate loans. Asset prices rise. Taxes are generated. Those who dont play the game find their purchasing power devalued. Currency isnt real, theyre accounting units. Dont work for it. It will own you if so. Create value, help people, create assets. The more you help the more value you create. Dont chase the paper only to spend it as soon as you get. The machine wants this.
SP:SPX
by optionfarmers
5
The Debt Ceiling AgreementThe debt ceiling is a limit set by the U.S. Congress on the amount of debt that the federal government can have outstanding. This debt is primarily made up of two components: debt held by the public (like U.S. Treasury bonds held by investors) and intragovernmental holdings (like those in the Social Security Trust Fund). From a financial perspective, the debt ceiling is significant for several reasons: 1. Creditworthiness of the United States: The U.S. government is seen worldwide as an issuer of risk-free assets, primarily because it has never defaulted on its debt. If the debt ceiling is not raised in time, it could potentially lead to a default, shaking the world's confidence in U.S. government securities. This could increase the interest rates that the U.S. has to pay to borrow money in the future. 2. Global Financial Markets Stability: U.S. Treasury securities are used as a benchmark for many other types of credit and are widely held by financial institutions around the world. A default could cause significant upheaval in these markets and potentially lead to a financial crisis. 3. Economic Recession : A default could lead to severe economic consequences. It could cause a sharp decrease in government spending (since the government couldn't borrow to finance its operations), which could in turn lead to job losses and potentially a recession. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of this risk in the case of the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. 4. Budgeting and Planning: The debt ceiling also has implications for how the government budgets and plans its finances. When the debt ceiling is reached, the Treasury Department has to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the government funded, which can create uncertainty and inefficiency. 5. Political Tool: While not strictly a financial point, it's worth noting that the debt ceiling has often been used as a political tool. Lawmakers may refuse to increase the debt ceiling without certain concessions, such as spending cuts or policy changes. This can lead to financial uncertainty, as was the case during the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. The negotiations that led to the agreement were marked by considerable compromise. President Biden, for instance, noted that the agreement represented a compromise where not everyone got what they wanted but was nonetheless an important step forward1. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, despite opposition within his own party, committed to passing the bill within 72 hours of its introduction on the House floor. This commitment was a testament to the urgency felt by lawmakers due to the looming threat of a potential default on the U.S. debt obligations. The agreement was a product of compromise and necessity, driven by the urgent need to avoid a default on U.S. debt obligations. It included a two-year budget deal holding spending flat for 2024 and imposing limits for 2025, effectively reducing spending as Republicans had insisted. This was in exchange for raising the debt limit for two years, until after the next election. The deal would boost spending on the military and veterans' care and cap spending for many discretionary domestic programs. However, the specifics of these spending caps remained subject to further debate between Republicans and Democrats. Conclusion The 2023 U.S. debt ceiling negotiations showcase the intricate dynamics of American politics and its intersection with economic policy. They underscore the importance of compromise in a divided government and the challenges that ideological divergences within parties can pose to such compromise. These negotiations and their outcome also highlight the potential economic implications, such as the risk of default, that can arise when political disagreements hinder prompt fiscal decisions.
FRED:GFDEGDQ188SEducation
by financialflagship
6
USA debt default hype is end! Should market rally? Peoples are already tired of news about the debt default of country, whose currency has a reserve status in the world. We are tired too. The circus of raising imaginary debt ceiling was completed on Saturday. Biden and Republicans agreed to raise the national debt ceiling. US default averted 🤡🧯 The House of Representatives will vote on the document on Wednesday, May 31. Then the initiative must be approved by Senate of Congress, after which it will go to Biden for signature. There is nothing surprising in this, and I even posted a detailed post on telgram about “Why there will be no debt default in the USA”, where I clearly explained to you that national debt ceiling will be raised 😉 BINANCE:BTCUSD and BINANCE:ETHUSD ETH reacted positively to this, as a result, all fell of last week was bought out. And the market ended the week positively. US market is closed today, so we will know the real reaction to this news tomorrow. 📯 Now media will promote this news as something positive and the markets will go into a short-term bullish rally. BUT… after this rally, SP:SPX will inevitably go for a deep downward correction, as now Ministry of Finance will come out with borrowings and will suck money out of system. And the FED will help him 🤝 For last half of year, the Ministry of Finance, on contrary, threw money into market, which blocked negative effect of the FED's actions. Therefore, we saw the growth of big techs - as a result, the Sp500 index. Now both structures will work in the same direction…
SP:SPXShort
by Dorado_Crypto
2
Macro Catalysts Looming over BTCThere are several macro catalysts looming that are expected to play out in the next days and next couple of weeks. - DEBT Ceiling - FEDNOW launch - SEC vs Ripple FED and US TREASURY - DEBT Ceiling The United States Treasury is going broke, the FED is broke and banks are crumbling. The market crash actually started back in September 2019 when the yield curve inverted (www.investopedia.com). The "Debt ceiling" cannot be raised indefinetly and at some point US will most likely have to default unless they reach a deal like they did in 2011. Image 1: fred.stlouisfed.org The FED is basically a bank that has assets and liabilities. Their profits are funnelled into the US government. Since August 2022 they have recorded over $60 billion in losses. Image 2: Image 2 The balance sheet of the Treasury shows how much money the US government has. After the COVID printer went crazy the balance sheet reached $1.8 trillion and has now plummeted to $100 billion. The US government is the ultimate PONZI, in order to pay their debts they need to keep borrowing. To make it worse the borrow estimates for Q1 2023 where about $500 billion but ended up being double that at about $1 trillion. This goes to show how the US is no longer in control and cannot predict what is to come. Image 3: www.bloomberg.com Bloomberg did a piece on Gold and assets that according to their survey will do well if US defaults. Data is based on 670 participants. Interesting to see that Bitcoin is considered to be a good BUY in that event. During a financial crisis, commodities such as Gold, Silver and Platinum have been the "go to" assets along with the YEN and Swiss Franc. It seems like Bitcoin is moving from a Risk-On asset to more of a commodity. FEDNOW Launching www.federalreserve.gov Another important upcoming catalyst is the FEDNOW banking system which goes live July 1st. This is kind of a precursor to CBDC. The question here is, how well will this function and is there any risk of bugs? All software is vulnerable, and a small bug can lead to huge implications because banks will not be able to move money if a bug happens. It is important that the system runs smoothly because on the same date another major catalyst is at play. - LIBOR to SOFR transition. LIBOR (London Inter Bank. Overnight Rate) is a group of banks that determines the interest rate on loans, this has been done in London as per the LIBOR The US wants to move to SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) , they want to have more control. We are talking about approximately $650 trillion worth of assets that will have to migrate. The rate on the SOFR is set by the Overnight Rates. Taking the FEDNOW and SOFR together, if a bug happens with the FEDNOW software, banks will not be able to move money. This would mean that the Rates will skyrocket. SEC vs RIPPLE - Hinman documents cointelegraph.com Another potential catalyst is the 2.5 year long case between SEC and Ripple. Recently Ripple convinced the court to force the SEC to reveal the Hinman documents. Hinman is a former SEC director who reportedly stated that ETH is not a security because "it is sufficiently decentralized." But since the documents are sealed it is uncertain what is exactly ment by this statement. Ripple believes revealing this document can help them win their case. Ripple winning this case could potentially be one of the most bullish catalysts to have impacted the crypto market. The public release was supposed to be June 6 but is now set for June 13. Important Dates: JUNE 1 Yellen states that it is likely that the treasury will not be able to satisfy all obligations as early as June 1 JUNE 13 - Hinman Documents made public - Inflation figures for May released JUNE 14 - FED announcement on interest rates decision JULY 1 - LIDOR to SOFR migration - FEDNOW launches
by Suneater69
U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
CONSOLIDATION NEARING ITS END!The SP500 is in long consolidation and it looks like it is near to its end. I am considering two scenarios: 1. After debt ceiling deal – when they increase debt limit – the price will break up as a bull trap and will bounce from the next resistance. It will fuel the price to push to the targets – near pandemic bottoms. 2. The price, after the deal, will do correction of last decline and will continue to drop till meet the targets.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Manticore_Investments
Aussie Resumes An Impulsive Weakness Following a recent decline in US stock markets, the USD is showing signs of strength, with DXY trading at a new high. Fitch Ratings has placed the United States' AAA rating on a negative rating watch due to concerns regarding the debt ceiling negotiations. Fitch Ratings suggests that these negotiations have increased risk of the government potentially defaulting on certain financial obligations, so speculators sold stocks especially as a lot of investors will not take a risk and hold stocks through long weekend. Keep in mind that there is a holiday on Monday in US and some EU countries as well. This can trigger more weakness going into the end of the week, so USD can stay strong. Looking at the AUDUSD chart, we see nice ongoing weakness, now headed down for wave C which has room for further drop untill five waves down from 0.680 are done.
by ew-forecast