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U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
CONSOLIDATION NEARING ITS END!The SP500 is in long consolidation and it looks like it is near to its end. I am considering two scenarios: 1. After debt ceiling deal – when they increase debt limit – the price will break up as a bull trap and will bounce from the next resistance. It will fuel the price to push to the targets – near pandemic bottoms. 2. The price, after the deal, will do correction of last decline and will continue to drop till meet the targets.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Manticore_Investments
Aussie Resumes An Impulsive Weakness Following a recent decline in US stock markets, the USD is showing signs of strength, with DXY trading at a new high. Fitch Ratings has placed the United States' AAA rating on a negative rating watch due to concerns regarding the debt ceiling negotiations. Fitch Ratings suggests that these negotiations have increased risk of the government potentially defaulting on certain financial obligations, so speculators sold stocks especially as a lot of investors will not take a risk and hold stocks through long weekend. Keep in mind that there is a holiday on Monday in US and some EU countries as well. This can trigger more weakness going into the end of the week, so USD can stay strong. Looking at the AUDUSD chart, we see nice ongoing weakness, now headed down for wave C which has room for further drop untill five waves down from 0.680 are done.
by ew-forecast
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵 ☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already. 20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda) ☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts. That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue. ☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis. ☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%. ☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind… I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts? explanation
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
4
Frothy TimesLast Wednesday, inflation prints (CPI) came in below expectations of a ‘hot’ print which would have likely indicated that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening rates. Cryptocurrency and equities markets reacted positively while bond yields dropped. These numbers are expected to persuade the Fed to lean more towards a "pause" stance for its next FOMC meeting in June. Meanwhile, markets are still concerned about the debt ceiling crisis as negotiations have not shown much progress as of yet. Despite the name, this crisis is actually more of a political issue as it hinges on a piece of must-pass legislation which would allow the federal government to increase its borrowing to fund its spending obligations. The Democrats currently have control of the Senate, while the Republicans have gained a majority in the House of Representatives. As such, they have used the debt ceiling as a political bargaining chip, pushing for cuts on what they deem as "irresponsible spending". Unless a compromise is reached, it’s likely that caution will echo throughout markets. Currently, the U.S. is forecast to hit its debt limit in early June. If the United States defaults on its debt for the first time in history, tens of billions of dollars in payments for Social Security benefits, payments to Medicaid providers, federal salaries, veterans' benefits, and other programs could potentially be at risk. As a result, investors are finding it challenging to decide on a trade amidst the uncertainty surrounding the debt default and resolution. Macroeconomic theory would predict that a resolution to increase the debt ceiling would reign in government spending, thus putting downward pressure on bond yields, thereby making the purchase of bonds at the current yields more attractive. Additionally, S&P500 earnings yields currently sit around 5.5% while risk-free 1-month U.S. Treasury Bills are paying the same. This makes holding stocks potentially less enticing to many investors and could serve as a rationale for shorting equities. From a technical perspective, since Bitcoin lost the $30K level, it has proven difficult to reclaim. The market has tested the level twice and has so far struggled to break it. In order for the next leg up to commence, Bitcoin will first need to reclaim $30K. In our previous market update, we noted the convergence of MA9 and MA50, signalling a potential crossover. Last Tuesday, that crossing finally occurred. When a fast moving average (MA9) crosses below a slower moving average (MA50), markets perceive it as a bearish signal. Another important indicator to take a look at is the MACD. Last week, it remained relatively neutral. Although the MACD line has been below its signal line, the spread between them has been quite small, represented by the short bars on the histogram. However, recently the two lines have begun to diverge. This is another bearish signal. The last time this happened, Bitcoin lost $30K and fell towards $27K. Although technical indicators aren’t always accurate at predicting market direction, most indicators are pointing towards an increase in bearish momentum across the crypto market in the coming days. Finally, over recent weeks, the market has seen a variety of meme coins rally upwards. During phases of cycles, ‘meme coin season’ has often served as an indicator of a local top. Back in 2021, shortly after Doge reached its all-time high, Bitcoin capitulated from $60,000 to around $30,000. With this 'silly season' firmly upon us, current market sentiment feels rather frothy.
by Coinrule
1
Nordex's YoY losses up 133% and Debt/Equity ratio up 54%FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Current liabilities increased 47% up to €3.4bn in 2022 from €2.3bn in 2021. Non-current liabilities decreased 37%. Debt to Equity ratio (2022) = 4.42x Debt to Equity ratio (2021) = 2.87x Losses YoY increased 133% to €522 million. EBITDA turned negative in 2022 to -€244 million from €52,672 million in 2021. Almost all Guidance provided in March 2022 was exceeded downwards except for Sales Guidance. Positive side: Sales increased 4.58%. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Since April 6, the company has entered into a downward trend that in Oct 2022 attempted to turn around. However, the banking crisis and inflation fears persist in a way that Nordex's stock performance graph experienced the appearance of a Bearish Bat pattern whose prophecy together with its recently issued FY 2022 results could materialise in the following days and weeks to come.
XETR:NDX1Short
by alexinve
ES: Recession/Depression 2023ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 THE END IS NEAR.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PivotX
1
Interpreting the Silicon Valley Bank Incident After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve used monetary policy to fight the pandemic, and household savings deposits reached about $1 trillion, with broad money M2 growing by over 25%. Many people were bullish on the US stock market, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash would one day enter the market as stocks. Obviously, many people forgot the double-entry accounting principle - for every credit, there must be a corresponding debit. For Silicon Valley Bank, with deposits of over $100 billion, all of its depositors are the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology newcomers in Silicon Valley, including Peter Thiel's Founder's Fund. Since the Federal Reserve interest rate is zero, they bought the world's safest assets - short-term US bonds, and even earned some interest. However, the good times did not last. By the end of 2021, US inflation began to soar, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to lose control, causing short-term US bond yields to soar, leading to the biggest US bond market crash in over 200 years in 2022. Suddenly, the world's safest asset became the storm's eye, and the US bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's account began to bleed. Even if they haven't sold yet, accounting requires mark-to-market valuation. The Silicon Valley market price loss has exceeded its total equity. Rating agencies wasted no time in preparing to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank's rating. However, deposit rates remain close to zero. Americans don't want to be harvested like this, so they began to withdraw their bank deposits and buy money market funds that now yield nearly 4%. If Silicon Valley Bank significantly raises its deposit interest rates, its interest margin income will be reduced, and it will have to pay additional liquidity. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma. Investment bank Goldman Sachs saw commission opportunities and began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its US bond portfolio and sell $2.25 billion of its stocks to replenish capital. This idea was really bad: data disclosed during the roadshow showed that Silicon Valley's customers were withdrawing large sums of money, causing a significant loss of deposits. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't know the details. Now, the market believes that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, accelerating the run on the bank. Since Silicon Valley's customers are all big clients with deposits far exceeding $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not covered by the US deposit insurance limit of $250,000. There must be many other regional banks using similar methods for cash management. Today, they are bound to face the same risks as short-term US bond yields soar. This also explains why the market unilaterally believes that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates. Their actions determine their fate. Of course, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must now consider the impact on the US banking industry. Chairman Powell has recently been saying that he needs to "consider the totality of data." Last night, the market hid in the short-term US bonds out of safe haven demand, causing yields to plummet. Many people continue to be indifferent to the historic inversion of the US bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk, which is not sustainable. Its reversal will cause a cataclysmic event. Although long-term risks are stable, short-term risks are high. We need to survive the short term to see the long term. "But such long-term predictions are of no use for the present. In the long term, we are all dead. Economists have it too easy, because their work is useless. At the onset of a storm, economists can only tell us that the storm will pass, and that the ocean will be calm again." - Keynes Now, the global market is concerned: Will Silicon Valley Bank be rescued? Many experts believe that if the US regulatory authorities do not intervene, Silicon Valley will become the second Lehman, which will bring down the US financial system. The market needs to see three measures for rescue: 1) Small depositors with less than $250,000 should receive full payment; 2) Depositors with deposit insurance limits over $250,000 should receive partial payment, and it should be ensured that in the future, depending on the sale of Silicon Valley Bank assets, these large depositors can receive most of their payment (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four major US banks take over Silicon Valley Bank. The problem now is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank deposit balances are below $250,000. Others are large and blue, including Silicon Valley venture capital companies such as Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, and GGV Capital. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to tens of billions. No wonder Silicon Valley was squeezed for more than $40 billion before being taken over. Under such pressure, almost no bank can survive. Unfortunately, US law may not allow it. If the Federal Reserve intervenes, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of "systemic risk" and there must be "broad-based" risks, and it cannot only benefit a particular company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in bankrupt companies that have already been taken over. The US Treasury cannot use unlegislated funds without congressional approval, and now there is no money left. In the end, it seems that FDIC has to bear the burden alone. The process of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay large depositors has already begun. It is reported that hedge funds have offered to buy Silicon Valley Bank's deposits at 60%-80% of their value. In times of crisis, Silicon Valley assets can be realized for 60%-80% of their value, and after the panic in the US market subsides, the price should be even higher. After all, US Treasury bonds trade up to $650 billion every day. Will the Federal Reserve open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, Silicon Valley's bankruptcy is precisely due to the Fed's unbridled printing of money, which caused a sharp drop in US bond yields and a surge in savings deposits. If money is printed again using Silicon Valley as an excuse, the Fed's only remaining credibility will be gone. When Lehman collapsed, its assets were worth $640 billion, and its associated derivative contract amounted to trillions of dollars. It was indeed a decisive moment. However, the assets of Silicon Valley Bank this weekend were only $220 billion, and it still held a large number of highly liquid US Treasury bonds. Previously, the market believed that the US economy would not decline, but the Federal Reserve's decision to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and even stop them soon, made the combination of economic and policy expectations logically hard to convince. During this cycle of rate hikes, Federal Reserve officials maintained a dovish stance until the end of 2021, believing that inflation would be a "transitory, temporary phenomenon." They then changed their tune in 2022, saying that this round of inflation will be "higher and longer." In both recent history and ancient times, the Federal Reserve's forecasting record seems to be lacking. Overnight, the two-year US Treasury yield skyrocketed by more than 5%, the first time since 2007. The degree of inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is the most severe since 1981. Many people mistakenly believe that the inverted US Treasury yield curve is terrifying. In fact, it is more terrifying when the yield curve returns to normal from inversion because this is the moment when the US economy officially enters into a recession. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
2
Yields are CRATERING - WHy?The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off 5.33% This is causing more of an inversion to the yield curve. On other news, banks faltering isn't helping the case for stability or easing the fears of #economy being in turmoil.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Things are looking very ugly, day by dayRate hike will continue as Jerome has no way out now. 50 basis points is my projection. Experts cannot see any concrete signs that economy is under control, in which they are right. Wall St banker's narrative are switching from soft landing, to crash landing. US money supply has shrinked while yield curve remain heavily inverted. Uh ohh. Congress voted to end emergency allotment. This means millions of Americans will lose $3 Billion a month food stamp benefits. Debt levels across all segments & categories are at record high. Layoffs are still on-going and is not stopping. Stay liquid and conserve ammunition. The bottom is not in yet. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
CME_MINI:ESH2023
by XeroAcademy
EURUSD bagged and taggedAs mentioned before, so long as DXY has not reach the finishing line, which is the higher time frame upside objective, Risk Off will still be in play. Same narrative, different pair. What happens when DXY finally gets to the upside objective? We sit sideline and study what it wants to do next. There are only 3 possible direction of the market, Bullish / Bearish / Consolidation. Usually, in my opinion, after a prolonged rally / decline, price will tend to consolidate for a bit. After consolidation comes expansion. The question is, expansion to the upside or downside? Now, this short-term bullishness of USD as I previously stated, could be Bear Market Rally for USD. Mr Powell will likely hike rates again in the next Federal Fund Rate announcement. In theory, higher interest rate means bullish for currency. But look at US domestic debt condition. Will that spook investors? Housing and Banking looks about to get crushed. US Credit Card debt climbs nearly US$1 Trillion *source: Insider Intelligent* Household debt hits record US$16.9 Trillion *source: CNN Business* Housing Market Downturn Wipes $2.3 Trillion In Value As Experts Predict Prices Could Still Tumble Another 10% *source: Forbes* US Home-Purchase Applications Drop to 28-Year Low *source: Bloomberg*
by XeroAcademy
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵 ☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already. 20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda) ☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts. That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue. ☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis. ☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%. ☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind… I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
Education
by ProSignalsFx
7
GBP/USD slips on record debt, soft PMIsThe British pound has posted slight gains on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2302, down 0.60%. UK debt costs soared in December, sending the budget deficit to a record 27.4 billion pounds. This was sharply higher than the November reading of 18.8 billion pounds and the consensus of 17.3 billion pounds. The drivers behind the sharp upturn were rising interest payments and government subsidies for gas and electricity. The government's bill for the subsidies in December was some 7 billion pounds. Despite the grim debt news, the pound remains steady, thanks to broad US dollar weakness. UK PMIs for December didn't help matters, as both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs came in below the 50 level, which indicates contraction. Manufacturing rose slightly to 46.7, up from 45.3 in November and above the forecast of 45.0 points. The Services PMI fell to 48.0, down from the November read and the forecast, both of which were 49.9 points. The soaring debt and soft PMIs are further signs of a weak UK economy. These are clearly not ideal conditions for raising interest rates, but with inflation at 10.5%, the Bank of England doesn't really have much choice, as entrenched inflation could cause more damage to the economy than high interest rates. The road back to low inflation promises to be a long one, with the BoE projecting that inflation won't drop to 5% until late this year. The US will release Manufacturing and Services PMIs which are expected to remain in contraction territory. Manufacturing is expected to tick lower to 46.1 (46.2 prev.), while Services is forecast to dip to 44.5 (44.7 prev.). If the releases are softer than expected, the US dollar could lose ground as speculation will rise that the Fed may have to ease up on the pace of rates. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2335. Below, there is support at 1.2233 There is resistance at 1.2499 and 1.2601
by OANDA
CDSP peaks are a possible lagging indicator of recession startsThe new CDSP numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) . Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to @FXEvolution for the article. DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes. If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500 What to do: If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
FRED:CDSP
by MayaUndefined
$SPY Monthly 9/21 Death Cross - WARNINGThe only other time the 9EMA crossed under the 21EMA on the monthly was the 2000 Dot Com & 2008 Great Financial Crisis. (Noted with the blue + symbols & down arrows). Each time, the RSI was near 50. Each time, the ADX indicator has been lower than the preceding level (in the 20s, WEAK - NO TREND. The massive drop in monthly volume should be noted. When the next BIG DIRECTIONAL MOVE comes, it'll be accompanied by VOLUME & a rise in the ADX (to STRONG TREND). If this 3rd time ever 9/21 DEATH CROSS is like the other two, a MASSIVE WATERFALL SELLOFF could occur. If such an event occurs, FEAR WILL SPREAD causing a MASSIVE VOLATILITY SURGE. I'm HEDGED for crisis with $UVIX $UVXY. My suspicions point toward a DEBT BUBBLE IMPLOSION. Protect your #kingdollar. GL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by EpicEconomics
2
Fourth HalvingSometime in early Q2 of 2024 the Bitcoin network will experience it's fourth supply cut, Economically I am seeing rapid cooldown of inflation with month over month inflation currently sitting at -0.10 month over month 5 year forward expectation rate of inflation as of today is currently sitting at 2.16 only 16 basis points away from 2% target in my opinion inflation should level off in about 1 and a half months from now maybe around end of Q1 but in the immediate term we are also facing a debt ceiling crisis where the debt ceiling will need to be raised or suspended by the end of next week. additionally short term government bonds are yielding higher than the long term government bonds specifically the 2 month is yielding higher than the 2 year bond the situation is an inverted yield curve during a liquidity crunch therefore in my opinion this places Bitcoin in a 2015 situation and I expect long term logarithmic growth and the occasional aggressive parabola ***Not financial advice always do your own research educational purposes only under the right of fair use***
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ILL_Midas
The Resistance Hit 4th Time - SPX500 Saw the red line! It is now hit the 4th time by the market. Although oil has come down from 130 to 80 USD per barrel giving some relief to the oil-dependent economies and inflation is also in a downtrend, the problem is worse and deeper. This alarming deeper problem is US debt which is now 137% of the GDP. Imagine it was hardly 67% in 2008 during the financial crunch. If things were good, why did this debt rise to 137%. Debt is good for industries till it remains fuel for growth. But when it becomes fuel for existing debt it is really problematic.
SP:SPXLong
by starringinvestors